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CommonDreads

2019 NHL Draft Thread

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

I'd be very nervous picking Podkolzin... 

the Russian thing is not as much of a worry for me than... too often you can get burned by small sample results... he really didnt play many games this year and it was through 3 different leagues... his numbers are not insane either. Sure it's fair that his numbers are good based on the situation he was in... being a younger guy buried in an older league etc etc.... but still...

You hear too often "his numbers are not great but he has all the tools to succeed in the NHL bla bla bla"

Any pick is obviously a gamble... but when you gamble between "this guy numbers are amazing, let's see if it will translate to the NHL" and "he doesnt have great numbers but it's only because of a situation.. let's see if he can get better numbers in the NHL" is a bit different.

Yeah I kind of agree...Not sure I would take the boom or bust risk of Podkolzin with the 3/4 overall or really at any spot after 2 if Byram (who has really become the consensus top D in the class) is available..now if we end up at 5/6 and he slides....I'd have more appetite to gamble there. 

Edited by Steadevils

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1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

I'd be very nervous picking Podkolzin... 

the Russian thing is not as much of a worry for me than... too often you can get burned by small sample results... he really didnt play many games this year and it was through 3 different leagues... his numbers are not insane either. Sure it's fair that his numbers are good based on the situation he was in... being a younger guy buried in an older league etc etc.... but still...

You hear too often "his numbers are not great but he has all the tools to succeed in the NHL bla bla bla"

Any pick is obviously a gamble... but when you gamble between "this guy numbers are amazing, let's see if it will translate to the NHL" and "he doesnt have great numbers but it's only because of a situation.. let's see if he can get better numbers in the NHL" is a bit different.

I'd pick him if we were in LA's draft spot, but not ours. 

;) 

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2 minutes ago, Steadevils said:

Yeah I kind of agree...Not sure I would take the boom or bust risk of Podkolzin with the 3/4 overall or really at any spot after 2 if Byram (who has really become the consensus top D in the class) is available..now if we end up at 5/6 and he slides....I'd have more appetite to gamble there. 

Well that's the thing with Byram tho... he's the top D in this class for suuuuure. But it's debatable if he's THAT good and if his stock is not overrated cause he's so far from the rest... ive seen some mock draft having him close to 10 so thats worrying me a bit

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Just now, SterioDesign said:

Well that's the thing with Byram tho... he's the top D in this class for suuuuure. But it's debatable if he's THAT good and if his stock is not overrated cause he's so far from the rest... ive seen some mock draft having him close to 10 so thats worrying me a bit

Yeah, but I see so much parity from 3-10 in the mocks and Byram is rarely outside the top 6, which I can't say for Podkolzhin who is either #3 or falls far in the mocks I've seen. Byram should fill the production box that Podkolzin doesn't for you too since he has produced at a similar level as the top forwards Krebs/Dach/Cozens did in the WHL this year.

Told myself to stop thinking about prospects until we knew where we were picking...needless to say that has not happened!

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Just now, Steadevils said:

Yeah, but I see so much parity from 3-10 in the mocks and Byram is rarely outside the top 6, which I can't say for Podkolzhin who is either #3 or falls far in the mocks I've seen. Byram should fill the production box that Podkolzin doesn't for you too since he has produced at a similar level as the top forwards Krebs/Dach/Cozens did in the WHL this year.

Told myself to stop thinking about prospects until we knew where we were picking...needless to say that has not happened!

that's the thing... i'm in the mindset that we'll pick 3-6... and even there... i truly don't know who i'd pick between byram, dash, zegras, turcotte, cozens... i dunnno

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Posted (edited)

Podkolzin's production is a lot more nuanced than just looking at his totals on the year. For starters, It's so hard for U20 players to get ice time in the Russian pro leagues, let alone a U18 player, so I find Points per 60 to be a much better indicator of success compared to just raw totals.

I thought Podkolzin was awesome in the VHL playoffs, but his raw totals only stack up at 2 goals and 3 points in 8 games, which is underwhelming until you consider that he only played an average of 7:48 per game. Podkolzin's Points/60 in the playoffs stood at 2.88; Airat Ziazov, who led the VHL playoffs in scoring, finished with a Points/60 of 2.64. That's why I say it's so hard to gauge raw production in the Russian leagues, because not only does scoring run low over there league-wide, but younger players are severely under-utilized and their production can suffer due to lack of ice time. Podkolzin has the skill set of a Top 3 pick, and his production should boom with a lot more ice time in Russia. When he's been given the reigns of an international team, he's dominated, every single time.

EDIT: For a reference point for Points/60 in the NHL, Taylor Hall put up a 2.60 this season. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 3.31 Points/60.

Edited by CommonDreads
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I’m surprised to hear scoring is low in KHL. Don’t they play on the bigger ice over there? 

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7 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

I’m surprised to hear scoring is low in KHL. Don’t they play on the bigger ice over there? 

The KHL and it's lower leagues are the lowest scoring leagues in the world, the KHL had 11 goalies (17 if you include goalies that played under 10 games) post a GAA under 2.00, with Shestyorkin putting up a 1.11 GAA to lead the league. That 1.11 GAA also wasn't an outlier, as Lars Johansson and Ilya Sorokin finished right behind him with a 1.15 and 1.16 respectively. The VHL is even more extreme, as 21 goalies (32 if you include those who played under 10 games) posted a GAA under 2.00 with Eduard Reizvikh leading the way with a 1.17. Honestly couldn't tell you why scoring runs so low when they use the same ice the other European leagues do, it's really just a systematic thing over there I would assume with coaching staffs, but that's why I place a lot more weight on the eye test than numbers when I'm looking at players from Russia.

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20 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

The KHL and it's lower leagues are the lowest scoring leagues in the world, the KHL had 11 goalies (17 if you include goalies that played under 10 games) post a GAA under 2.00, with Shestyorkin putting up a 1.11 GAA to lead the league. That 1.11 GAA also wasn't an outlier, as Lars Johansson and Ilya Sorokin finished right behind him with a 1.15 and 1.16 respectively. The VHL is even more extreme, as 21 goalies (32 if you include those who played under 10 games) posted a GAA under 2.00 with Eduard Reizvikh leading the way with a 1.17. Honestly couldn't tell you why scoring runs so low when they use the same ice the other European leagues do, it's really just a systematic thing over there I would assume with coaching staffs, but that's why I place a lot more weight on the eye test than numbers when I'm looking at players from Russia.

Thanks for this insight! Very helpful. You have plans to update your "Riding Pine" blog with updated rankings/mocks etc? 

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1 minute ago, Steadevils said:

Thanks for this insight! Very helpful. You have plans to update your "Riding Pine" blog with updated rankings/mocks etc? 

For sure, I've been working on getting my final rankings finalized (which nailing down my Top 10 has been really hard this year) and I'll also be posting my yearly draft guide before the draft.

I'm also writing for DobberProspects now as well, so my writing time has kind of been split between those two platforms as well :cheers:

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2 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

Podkolzin's production is a lot more nuanced than just looking at his totals on the year. For starters, It's so hard for U20 players to get ice time in the Russian pro leagues, let alone a U18 player, so I find Points per 60 to be a much better indicator of success compared to just raw totals.

I thought Podkolzin was awesome in the VHL playoffs, but his raw totals only stack up at 2 goals and 3 points in 8 games, which is underwhelming until you consider that he only played an average of 7:48 per game. Podkolzin's Points/60 in the playoffs stood at 2.88; Airat Ziazov, who led the VHL playoffs in scoring, finished with a Points/60 of 2.64. That's why I say it's so hard to gauge raw production in the Russian leagues, because not only does scoring run low over there league-wide, but younger players are severely under-utilized and their production can suffer due to lack of ice time. Podkolzin has the skill set of a Top 3 pick, and his production should boom with a lot more ice time in Russia. When he's been given the reigns of an international team, he's dominated, every single time.

EDIT: For a reference point for Points/60 in the NHL, Taylor Hall put up a 2.60 this season. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 3.31 Points/60.

Yeah for sure and i get all that. But you still need to project a lot. You also don't know how those guys pace themselves through a full season playing 50+ games. It's not to say they can't do it or wtv. Rantanen was in a similar situation and not showing great numbers and we all know he turned out great. It's just worrying me that you need to project to imagine a result rather than already seeing the guy can and already did it

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If it hasn't been said yet, I hope teams have finally learned their lesson when it comes to size in today's NHL. Because I'm pretty sure Cole Caufield is going to be a prolific NHL scorer. If he drops in the draft, it'll be awfully dumb.

There was no excuse that DeBrincat slid, he tore up the OHL as a teenager, hopefully the same doesn't happen to Cole.

Edited by Neb00rs

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56 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

If it hasn't been said yet, I hope teams have finally learned their lesson when it comes to size in today's NHL. Because I'm pretty sure Cole Caufield is going to be a prolific NHL scorer. If he drops in the draft, it'll be awfully dumb.

There was no excuse that DeBrincat slid, he tore up the OHL as a teenager, hopefully the same doesn't happen to Cole.

well actually i hope they didnt learn that and that he falls to us at #34 lol

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3 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

well actually i hope they didnt learn that and that he falls to us at #34 lol

I was thinking the same thing. 

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