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Race To The Bottom II - 2018-19 Edition


Triumph

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i don't really care at this point who we're playing against cause back in 2014-2015 i remember still being happy winning against MTL, NYR and all the teams i hate through the season.

In hindsight though, knowing that with 4-5 less wins that year we'd have Marner instead of Zacha... it makes those "feel good wins" incredibly irrelevant in the big picture.

Edited by SterioDesign
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All we need is a loss on Saturday and for the Kings to pick up 2 points in their two remaining games. One win or 2 otls does it. Two winnable games, too. Considering Anaheim is bad and Vegas will likely be resting players 

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9 hours ago, Triumph said:

Missed the game but it's just as well.

29:  NJD -11

30:  LAK -11

Los Angeles would 'win' any tiebreakers so they have to finish with more points than the Devils.

...and then there were two for second (worst)...

In some ways, hard to believe this season is winding down this way...but then considering all that went wrong, not so much...

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So uh, dumb question.

How is the lottery for position #2 established?  The odds for the first overall pick are clearly stated all over the place, no confusion there.  

There's a separate drawing for the 2nd overall pick, correct? 

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Just now, Devilsfan118 said:

So uh, dumb question.

How is the lottery for position #2 established?  The odds for the first overall pick are clearly stated all over the place, no confusion there.  

There's a separate drawing for the 2nd overall pick, correct? 

If I remember correctly, 3 teams’ numbers get picked, if one of the three isn’t in the top 3, they get moved to the top 3. Everyone else shifts. That’s why when you see teams start moving down slots during the lottery, it means someone moved to the top.

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2 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

So uh, dumb question.

How is the lottery for position #2 established?  The odds for the first overall pick are clearly stated all over the place, no confusion there.  

There's a separate drawing for the 2nd overall pick, correct? 

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/26307376/nhl-draft-lottery-key-dates-schedule-how-all-works

basically they do three drawings and the odds are listed at this link: http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

once you win one of them, you're removed from the subsequent draws.

after they do the first 3, everyone else goes to their slot or moves back accordingly if someone else moves up to 1-3.

you can only move up to 1-3.

if i remember correctly - there are 4 lottery balls and they are pulled to make a 4 digit number. Teams have a set number of those 4 digit numbers based on where they finished (thus, the odds).

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Thanks guys - appreciate the info.

So essentially, for that first draw.. we want to either win the lottery ourselves (duh) or have Ottawa win it so we have the best remaining odds at #2 and, if necessary, #3.

It's a shame we don't get to see the process.

 

Edited by Devilsfan118
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1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

...and then there were two for second (worst)...

In some ways, hard to believe this season is winding down this way...but then considering all that went wrong, not so much...

I was thinking the same thing.  It's amazing that we're 'fighting' for the second draft pick.  This season has been very similar to 2016-17 in terms of how it's felt and where we are in the standings.  It's hard to believe, given how bad that season was, that we're actually right back to that point.  A lot of flukes this year though with the bad goaltending from both guys and a TON of injuries in the second half of the season, so I think hopefully what we're seeing now is growing pains more than anything else, with hopefully better times on the horizon soon to come.  It's just so odd that we were a bottom feeder two years ago, had a nice turn around last season and made the playoffs, and now back to where we were before - it feels like a reversal of fortune.  

Here's to better things in the 2019-20 season.

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1 hour ago, 2ELIAS6 said:

does anyone actually have the odds for the teams finishing in the bottom three, for picking in the top 3? ( hope that makes sense) I know we are locked into a top 6 pick as of now.

So in the link that @sundstrom provided a couple posts up:

image.png.7bffde283d643277f232678edb39a61f.png

So at face value, it looks like our odds of picking in the top 3 are about 33% - that is assuming you can simply add the values together to get an accurate number.  Given my limited understanding of this process, I'm going to venture it isn't that simple.

Also, let's say Ottawa wins the lottery for the first overall pick - I have to imagine our odds of picking 2nd or 3rd then go up significantly. 

Edited by Devilsfan118
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This is a "Behind the Scenes" look at the 2017 lottery process (good juju - Nico draft), if anyone's interested. It is, of course, an "old" article. 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/behind-scenes-2017-nhl-draft-lottery-gary-bettman/

Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are stored in a locked briefcase before being placed in the lottery machine one at a time. The machine randomly selects four balls. The resulting four-number series is then matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the teams to which each is assigned. All number combinations are assigned to teams at random by Bortz & Company. The entire process is filmed for legal purposes.

Bettman reads out the first four numbers one by one. One. Five. Six. Eleven. The gentlemen to Bettman’s right find the corresponding number combo and say, “Devils,” indicating New Jersey will hold the first pick on June 23 at the Chicago’s United Center.

There was no cheering from the Devils representative, nor was there any cursing from anyone disappointed in not getting that top pick–at least not out loud anyways. Bettman glances up at the biggest TV screen, which has a list of the teams and their odds of winning, and lets out a subtle “wow” as he reacts to the Devils’ 8.5 per cent chance of winning. He then adds a simple “okay” before the balls were placed back in the machine and they move on the second selection.

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7 minutes ago, LittleBallofHate said:

This is a "Behind the Scenes" look at the 2017 lottery process (good juju - Nico draft), if anyone's interested. It is, of course, an "old" article. 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/behind-scenes-2017-nhl-draft-lottery-gary-bettman/

Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are stored in a locked briefcase before being placed in the lottery machine one at a time. The machine randomly selects four balls. The resulting four-number series is then matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the teams to which each is assigned. All number combinations are assigned to teams at random by Bortz & Company. The entire process is filmed for legal purposes.

Bettman reads out the first four numbers one by one. One. Five. Six. Eleven. The gentlemen to Bettman’s right find the corresponding number combo and say, “Devils,” indicating New Jersey will hold the first pick on June 23 at the Chicago’s United Center.

There was no cheering from the Devils representative, nor was there any cursing from anyone disappointed in not getting that top pick–at least not out loud anyways. Bettman glances up at the biggest TV screen, which has a list of the teams and their odds of winning, and lets out a subtle “wow” as he reacts to the Devils’ 8.5 per cent chance of winning. He then adds a simple “okay” before the balls were placed back in the machine and they move on the second selection.

Live video of Bettman's reaction to this:

giphy.gif

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On 4/3/2019 at 8:53 AM, NJDfan1711 said:

I really want Columbus to miss the playoffs...kinda sucks that if they take care of business and win out, they're in.  Things definitely got interesting last night though with them losing and the Canadiens upsetting the Bolts.

They either have to miss the playoffs, or get in on the last day in a game that KK is forced into due to injury and he shuts out the opponent. 

I'm not especially rooting for KK but it would serve the organization right after that April Fool's joke. 

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30 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

They either have to miss the playoffs, or get in on the last day in a game that KK is forced into due to injury and he shuts out the opponent. 

I'm not especially rooting for KK but it would serve the organization right after that April Fool's joke. 

You just made me change my mind - I'm no longer rooting for them not to make the playoffs, I'm rooting for them to make the playoffs and Bobrovsky and whoever their other backup is to get injured and/or sick, and KK has to come in.  It would be the absolutely best if he just said "no thanks" and left them high and dry, but maybe even better if he actually suited up and helped them win their first ever playoff series.  God I hope that happens.

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personally in the current setup I prefer seeing a team i don't like barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round... which means they'll get a worst pick and potentially won't get that much better the next year... vs having a team i don't like finishing just out of the playoffs... winning the lottery and getting a top pick... like the flyers did going from 19 to second overall. I know the chances of that happening are super slim... but its just as slim that they make it all the way and win the cup so

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6 hours ago, Devilsfan118 said:

So in the link that @sundstrom provided a couple posts up:

image.png.7bffde283d643277f232678edb39a61f.png

So at face value, it looks like our odds of picking in the top 3 are about 33% - that is assuming you can simply add the values together to get an accurate number.  Given my limited understanding of this process, I'm going to venture it isn't that simple.

Also, let's say Ottawa wins the lottery for the first overall pick - I have to imagine our odds of picking 2nd or 3rd then go up significantly. 

Yeah, so it's almost 50-50 for top 4 pick vs a 5-6 pick.. but we need that 22.8% 

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