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Triumph

Race To The Bottom II - 2018-19 Edition

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i'm still hoping we can get the last stop to maximize our chance to get the best pick OR not drop further than 3-4.. we could finish 5th and pick as late as 7-8 say some teams are REALLY lucky jud.thumb.jpg.31660b075a3807d2b8211740ae4485ab.jpg.9c4b1f33f54ac40e9a53372959e8630a.jpg

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Anaheim tried to blow it again, but they managed to hang on for a 3-2 win.  That puts the standings after Tuesday:

26:  VAN -4

27:  ANA -6

28:  NJD -11

29:  LAK -11

30:  DET -12

31:  OTT -18

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16 hours ago, Devilsfan118 said:

image.thumb.png.c3fe109c86cec38cbf0c76c67de975c4.png

Well, losing a lot has helped our outlook quite a bit it seems.

Our odds seem pretty solid to finish between 3 and 5.

Though if we keep losing - the 'sky' is the limit I suppose.

image.thumb.png.ef2ef71b7b199629f3f1435ccb4b8486.png

This could be the best of all worlds:  maximizing our chance for a top pick, evaluating what we actually have in the system, and settling our goaltender situation a little bit.  I guess there is not much else we can do at this point....

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Bad couple of nights for the tank. NJ won Wed, and DET, ANA, and LAK all lost tonight. DET is particularly useless, as they squandered a late lead against TB giving up 4 goals in the 3rd. 

It’s pretty astonishing that DET and LAK actually look worse than what the Devils are icing. 

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6 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Bad couple of nights for the tank. NJ won Wed, and DET, ANA, and LAK all lost tonight. DET is particularly useless, as they squandered a late lead against TB giving up 4 goals in the 3rd. 

It’s pretty astonishing that DET and LAK actually look worse than what the Devils are icing. 

Yeah Detroit last night was a tough one. I got my hopes up, but also had a feeling that they went up 3-0 too early, but still figured they'd get a point. Really thought the Kings would pass us just because Quick would steal more points than our goalies, but he has looked much worse than Schneider over the last stretch. Schneider is ahead of him for sv% for the season now. 

 

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6 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Bad couple of nights for the tank. NJ won Wed, and DET, ANA, and LAK all lost tonight. DET is particularly useless, as they squandered a late lead against TB giving up 4 goals in the 3rd. 

It’s pretty astonishing that DET and LAK actually look worse than what the Devils are icing. 

Yeah, yesterday was a combination of Tampa being just downright incredible, and Detroit being downright horrible.  It was 3-0 going into the third and I literally watched the Bolts score 5 in a row, before Detroit notched a 4th late and lost by a goal.  

I have no idea what the Kings are doing over there on the west coast, but you're right - it's amazing that both of them somehow seem worse than us, considering 75% of our lineup at the moment is AHLers, and that's being generous.

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5 minutes ago, Steadevils said:

 Really thought the Kings would pass us just because Quick would steal more points than our goalies, but he has looked much worse than Schneider over the last stretch. Schneider is ahead of him for sv% for the season now. 

 

Wow, is he really?  That's nuts.  He has to have played like pure sh!t lately. 

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LA had a lead in the 3rd but of course they blew it and lost in regulation because why not. But Detroit and Ottawa won.  The Devils seem pretty locked into 28th here.

27:  ANA -6

28:  NJD -9

29:  DET -12

30:  LAK -13

31:  OTT -16

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On 3/15/2019 at 7:57 AM, NJDfan1711 said:

Wow, is he really?  That's nuts.  He has to have played like pure sh!t lately. 

Kovy was a healthy scratch last night to boot.  Kings really fvcked on that contract...maybe they deal him for another sh!t (but relatively short-term) contract as a “what the hell, why not?” kind of move.

Anyway, yeah, looking like 28th overall barring any real surprises.  Devils have been getting solid goaltending lately from Cory and Mac.  They’re managing to stay in a lot of games lately.  

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Devils lose, Anaheim and Vancouver win.  Great day for the tank.  It's nearly impossible for the Devils to go up now - the Devils are 6 points back with 10 games left for them to play, 9 for Anaheim.

26:  NYR -3

27:  ANA -5

28:  NJD -10

29:  DET -12

30:  LAK -13

31:  OTT -16

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Sucks that LA and Detroit also have a pretty hard schedule coming. Losing to Detroit in regulation would probably be huge for us.

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4th worst still gets you a decent-ish shot at top 3. We won the lottery in 2017 with the 5th best odds, so it's certainly not unheard of

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Posted (edited)

After yesterday's loss, we're officially eliminated.  Pretty amazing that Los Angeles hasn't been eliminated yet, but that just goes to show how much better the East really has been this year compared to the West.  If you look at that Conference, I think the top 5 teams ending with Vegas are really the only strong ones that have a shot at going on a deep playoff run...the others are quite mediocre at best.

Here's the updated playoff race:

image.png.b34813cc7d54478400225fd72292a89b.png

Edited by NJDfan1711

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the main reason i want to be as low as possible is not as much to give ourselve the best chance to land with #1... i just don't want to fall back too much.

Last year Ottawa and Arizona we're pushed out of the top 3 cause MTL and Carolina won a top 3 spot. 

in 2017, we won the draft, Dallas and philly won too.. which pushed back the whole bottom 3 up to 4,5,6. 

So there's really potential to be pushed 3 spots back if teams ahead of us are really really lucky.

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1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

the main reason i want to be as low as possible is not as much to give ourselve the best chance to land with #1... i just don't want to fall back too much.

Last year Ottawa and Arizona we're pushed out of the top 3 cause MTL and Carolina won a top 3 spot. 

in 2017, we won the draft, Dallas and philly won too.. which pushed back the whole bottom 3 up to 4,5,6. 

So there's really potential to be pushed 3 spots back if teams ahead of us are really really lucky.

Bingo, exactly.

Disaster scenario here is us drafting like 5-8.  Holy sh!t would that be disappointing. 

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36 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Bingo, exactly.

Disaster scenario here is us drafting like 5-8.  Holy sh!t would that be disappointing. 

The Devils are much more likely to be drafting there than anywhere else.  They can maybe slip to 3rd worst but it's going to be hard to fall any farther - the teams beneath them are also fvcking terrible.  From 4th worst, they're 68% to pick 5-7 and from 3rd worst they're 54% to be picking 5th or 6th.  

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I can’t be worried about it. There's a lottery system, so you aren’t guaranteed a top 5 pick. Sometimes a team gets lucky and wins a higher pick. Nothing at all we can do about it. 

Just draft the best guy available when we pick. 

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5 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I can’t be worried about it. There's a lottery system, so you aren’t guaranteed a top 5 pick. Sometimes a team gets lucky and wins a higher pick. Nothing at all we can do about it. 

Just draft the best guy available when we pick.

Absolutely must hit on picks that high. Another Zacha would be catastrophic. 

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6 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

Absolutely must hit on picks that high. Another Zacha would be catastrophic. 

yeah that one is starting to sting. That was a stacked draft to come away with Zacha at 6th overall is a pretty bad miss.

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4 minutes ago, Antiquated Colorado Rockie said:

yeah that one is starting to sting. That was a stacked draft to come away with Zacha at 6th overall is a pretty bad miss.

id say at this point although people still try to defend him .. what we see is what we have with him. 

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Calgary clinched on Sunday, but my spreadsheet was only taking into account current points compared to points possible, so with them having 95 and Minnesota still being able to achieve 95, it wasn't reflecting that.  I modified the result column to include points possible AND regulation or overtime wins along with the total number of games remaining.  

image.png.c13c386a21b1ac931779269ae53556f7.png

Does anyone find this useful?  Our team sucks and although I'm watching every game still and can't wait until we can begin to talk about the draft, at this point because I'm still a hockey fan I'm basically paying more attention to the rest of the league down the stretch. If no one cares though, I won't post daily updates. 

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Absolutely must hit on picks that high. Another Zacha would be catastrophic. 

The thing is, Zacha WAS considered close to the best player available when he was picked. The highest rated forwards left at the time were him and Crouse. In fact I remember most people were terrified that we would take Crouse who was a prototypical Conte pick.

I trust Shero to make the right call on this one, however. He seems to have a much better track record. 

Edited by Devil Dan 56

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

The thing is, Zacha WAS considered close to the best player available when he was picked. The highest rated forwards left at the time were him and Crouse. In fact I remember most people were terrified that we would take Crouse who was a prototypical Conte pick.

I trust Shero to make the right call on this one, however. He seems to have a much better track record. 

Zacha was almost as controversial as Crouse in that Zacha did not have the production that you would expect from a top ten pick.  Zacha got something of a break in that regard since it was his first year in North America and he played through some injuries.  Obviously, he was more talented than Crouse, but neither truly dominated the OHL in their draft +1 year.  My educated guess is that Conte's board in 2015 was:  McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Zacha.

Edited by Daniel
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7 hours ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Calgary clinched on Sunday, but my spreadsheet was only taking into account current points compared to points possible, so with them having 95 and Minnesota still being able to achieve 95, it wasn't reflecting that.  I modified the result column to include points possible AND regulation or overtime wins along with the total number of games remaining.  

image.png.c13c386a21b1ac931779269ae53556f7.png

Does anyone find this useful?  Our team sucks and although I'm watching every game still and can't wait until we can begin to talk about the draft, at this point because I'm still a hockey fan I'm basically paying more attention to the rest of the league down the stretch. If no one cares though, I won't post daily updates. 

I always appreciate the analysis from you and everyone else.

Not much else to really analyze at this point lol

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