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Triumph

Race To The Bottom II - 2018-19 Edition

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On ‎4‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 1:35 AM, SterioDesign said:

ugh and of course LA won lol... please don't let that extra 2 points haunt us down the line

Meh, you can drive yourself crazy with this stuff.  Think about all of the blown leads that turned into losses this year for the Devils...if they hung on to win even a couple of those, then they're never in play for the 2nd worst record with a game left in their season.  You wind up where you wind up, and at least it looks like all of the teams involved played it straight...no deliberate tanking, in terms of teams and players clearly not trying to win on the ice...and in Detroit's case, they actually kinda screwed themselves up.  But I'd rather that, then 5-10 teams all trying to blatantly out-tank each other.  The Sens more or less had their "worst record" position locked up some time ago (so I don't really count them...what a mess that they don't even own that pick), but as we've been over, the only team that really fell completely to pieces was Buffalo.  LA was actually good down the stretch...finished 6-3-1 in their final ten games (Devils went 4-5-1). 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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The worst of it all is that Colorado has the #1 pick. God I hate that franchise. As for us, assuming we ain't picking #2 as long as the Rangers aren't picking ahead of us, I'll live with Byram or Cozens. No to the Russian and no to Turcotte (I dont want any progeny of ex-Rangers anymore thank you). 

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52 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Meh, you can drive yourself crazy with this stuff.  Think about all of the blown leads that turned into losses this year for the Devils...if they hung on to win even a couple of those, then they're never in play for the 2nd worst record with a game left in their season.  You wind up where you wind up, and at least it looks like all of the teams involved played it straight...no deliberate tanking, in terms of teams and players clearly not trying to win on the ice...and in Detroit's case, they actually kinda screwed themselves up.  But I'd rather that, then 5-10 teams all trying to blatantly out-tank each other.  The Sens more or less had their "worst record" position locked up some time ago (so I don't really count them...what a mess that they don't even own that pick), but as we've been over, the only team that really feel completely to pieces was Buffalo.  LA was actually good down the stretch...finished 6-3-1 in their final ten games (Devils went 4-5-1). 

GREAT post. The front office trying to tank by putting a cobbled together lineup oh AHL players is one thing. But honestly, if the players went out and deliberately tried to lose, or just didn’t play hard in hopes they would lose, I would never respect them again. 

I think I’ve made clear, worrying about “the future” is for management and people on message boards. The players have to play. Sometimes they’ll win. 

Moreover, despite having won a few extra games, it was nice to see Schneider with a return to form, it gives you a better feeling about the future too. 

Ultimately, we’ll never actually know whether finishing one spot lower would’ve made a difference, because as we know, you can finish dead last and still wind up losing the lottery. The odds would have been increased by a lower finish, but at the end of the day, we still could’ve wound up in the exact same spot.

That said, I’ll be anxiously awaiting the lottery results in a couple days like everyone else. 

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1 hour ago, slasher72 said:

The worst of it all is that Colorado has the #1 pick. God I hate that franchise. As for us, assuming we ain't picking #2 as long as the Rangers aren't picking ahead of us, I'll live with Byram or Cozens. No to the Russian and no to Turcotte (I dont want any progeny of ex-Rangers anymore thank you). 

If you’re thinking of Darren Turcotte, I’m pretty sure there’s no relation lol.

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@Triumph also speculated that maybe the league stepped in a few weeks ago and started "asking questions" about some of the injuries. There was a game where Palmieri, Nico, Mueller, Wood, and Vatanen all came back from injuries at the same time. Seems pretty fishy, no?

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Players don't tank, management can.. and that's what they did to ensure a top 6 pick.. I can't ask for anything more.. sens were just a better tank group I hope that pick gets passed by us and 2 others.. I'm feeling that 2 spot... 

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Anyway, yes, it is annoying we don't have the second best odds. But ask yourselves seriously, with Hall only missing his usual 8-12 games, Bratt playing 70 games, Nico playing 70 games, Vatanen playing 70 games, and the goaltending being league average (it was well above league average the last 2 months), this team doesn't get a guaranteed top 6 pick with a decent shot at Hughes/Kakko. You look around, and this team is way better than Ottawa, LA, Detroit, NYR, Edmonton, Vancouver, Buffalo, and Chicago. So we're looking at estimates of:

1st round: 1-6OA

2nd round: 34th overall, 55th overall (Nashville), 60th overall (Boston)

3rd round: 70th overall (Anaheim), 78th overall (Dallas)

4th round: 96th overall

5th round: 127th overall

6th round: 158th overall

7th round: 189th overall

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25 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

If you’re thinking of Darren Turcotte, I’m pretty sure there’s no relation lol.

Doesn’t matter, it’s too fvcking close. 

While on the topic, who gives their kid their own name and then spells it differently?

Stephane Matteau —> Stefan Matteau?

Dummy. 

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5 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

GREAT post. The front office trying to tank by putting a cobbled together lineup oh AHL players is one thing. But honestly, if the players went out and deliberately tried to lose, or just didn’t play hard in hopes they would lose, I would never respect them again. 

I think I’ve made clear, worrying about “the future” is for management and people on message boards. The players have to play. Sometimes they’ll win. 

Moreover, despite having won a few extra games, it was nice to see Schneider with a return to form, it gives you a better feeling about the future too. 

Ultimately, we’ll never actually know whether finishing one spot lower would’ve made a difference, because as we know, you can finish dead last and still wind up losing the lottery. The odds would have been increased by a lower finish, but at the end of the day, we still could’ve wound up in the exact same spot.

That said, I’ll be anxiously awaiting the lottery results in a couple days like everyone else. 

what do you mean we'll never actually know if finishing one spot lower would have made a difference?

Say LA gets a top 2 pick and that we don't... then we'd know that it would have been us. We could also very well pick top 2 and LA pick top 5. But to say we won't know is just not true... then in a few years we'll know how those players developped and we'll know again if finishing one spot ahead did hurt us. Just like we know that 5 extra wins did cost us Marner and that we got Zacha instead... we straight up know that.

We also know that if we would have drafted Lemieux instead of Muller that it would have been quiiiiite different. 

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20 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

what do you mean we'll never actually know if finishing one spot lower would have made a difference?

Say LA gets a top 2 pick and that we don't... then we'd know that it would have been us. We could also very well pick top 2 and LA pick top 5. But to say we won't know is just not true... then in a few years we'll know how those players developped and we'll know again if finishing one spot ahead did hurt us. Just like we know that 5 extra wins did cost us Marner and that we got Zacha instead... we straight up know that.

We also know that if we would have drafted Lemieux instead of Muller that it would have been quiiiiite different. 

I don’t think you know how probability works. I’m confident you do not, actually. 

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2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I don’t think you know how probability works. I’m confident you do not, actually. 

The way the draft worked back then and now would not change anything... back then we would have got Lemieux if we would have finished last, that's a fact. And now it goes by your ranking and the %, which team you are is not a factor. When we won the lottery for Hishier we won cause we were at a certain position. not cause we were the NJ Devils

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1 minute ago, SterioDesign said:

The way the draft worked back then and now would not change anything... back then we would have got Lemieux if we would have finished last, that's a fact. And now it goes by your ranking and the %, which team you are is not a factor. When we won the lottery for Hishier we won cause we were at a certain position. not cause we were the NJ Devils

Nobody was talking about Lemieux but you. We’re talking about the lottery system which you clearly have no understanding of.

We didn’t win the Hischier pick because we were at a “certain position”; we had a certain % chance based on position, and we won the luck of the draw. That’s why we drafted him despite 2 (possibly 3, don't remember who had the tiebreaker between us and the Coyotes) teams having finished worse than us. 

That can happen whether you are 29th or 30th, the probability changes. The team with lower probability can still win the pick, so you cannot definitively say “if we finished 30th, we would have gotten the exact pick LA got”, because LA won the luck of the draw and still could have because they still had a chance. 

Same with Marner/Zacha. You can’t definitively say those 5 wins made the difference; you can only say they decreased our chances. 

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In fact, the Muller/Lemieux example you gave actually highlights the difference and you still don’t understand it. 

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44 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Nobody was talking about Lemieux but you. We’re talking about the lottery system which you clearly have no understanding of.

We didn’t win the Hischier pick because we were at a “certain position”; we had a certain % chance based on position, and we won the luck of the draw. That’s why we drafted him despite 2 (possibly 3, don't remember who had the tiebreaker between us and the Coyotes) teams having finished worse than us. 

That can happen whether you are 29th or 30th, the probability changes. The team with lower probability can still win the pick, so you cannot definitively say “if we finished 30th, we would have gotten the exact pick LA got”, because LA won the luck of the draw and still could have because they still had a chance. 

Same with Marner/Zacha. You can’t definitively say those 5 wins made the difference; you can only say they decreased our chances. 

 

39 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

In fact, the Muller/Lemieux example you gave actually highlights the difference and you still don’t understand it. 

Well unlike you i'm not just going to say that you don't understand things to support my stance, instead i'll just explain how it works.

"Each team is assigned a series of numbered combinations. The lower a team finished in the regular season standings, the more combinations are assigned to them. Four balls are then selected at random to form a four-number combination, which is then compared to a master list of every teams’ combinations and matched with the winner. This process is then repeated to determine the winner of the second and third overall picks. Once all three draws are done, the remaining teams fall into place based on each team’s final position in the regular season standings."

1- You're assigned a bunch of combinations of 4 numbers based on your position. The lower you are the most combinations you get. Say Ottawa(Col) has 14 combinations... if LA was dead last... THEY would have got those 14 combinations.

2-Then they get a combinations out of 4 balls...

3- Then they go and see which team has that combination. (which is based on their position)

So yeah... your position is 100% guiding which position you draft and you can say that if you would have ended at another position, where you would have picked.

So if we would have finished at the same position than Toronto that year... we would have picked exactly where they picked.

It goes both ways too. Say fvcking Buffalo win the lottery, then we know if we would have finished at their position that we would have won it then winning a few extra games would have been better.

 

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58 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

It goes both ways too. Say fvcking Buffalo win the lottery, then we know if we would have finished at their position that we would have won it then winning a few extra games would have been better.

 

Huh, you just explained exactly why this isn't what happens with the rest of your post. 

It's totally luck of the draw now.

The way I think about it is like lottery tickets. If you finish last the league gives you the most tickets, that still doesn't stop that one a$$hole who only buys one ticket  once a year from winning the jackpot. 

If the Sabres win all that it shows is that their lucky numbers came up. Because you don't get certain numbers based on your position. 

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8 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Huh, you just explained exactly why this isn't what happens with the rest of your post. 

It's totally luck of the draw now.

The way I think about it is like lottery tickets. If you finish last the league gives you the most tickets, that still doesn't stop that one a$$hole who only buys one ticket  once a year from winning the jackpot. 

If the Sabres win all that it shows is that their lucky numbers came up. Because you don't get certain numbers based on your position. 

If if was a hat with say.... 15 papers with Colorado in it... then 10 with LA.... then 5 with NJ... etc etc etc then they shake it and pick one... then it would be luck of being on the actual paper that they picked. yes. Cause you're straight up picking the team.

But it's not what it is. they get a # out of 4 balls... they use that number and go the board where all the combinations are there and were assigned based on position. That's different. 

to make it simpler... it's more like... there's no ball with teams logo on it that they pick... it's like if there was 15 balls... they pick a ball... say they pick 3... they go see which team is 3... it's us. Boom. we win. But if another team was 3 then they win. 

Edited by SterioDesign

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2 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

If if was a hat with say.... 15 papers with Colorado in it... then 10 with LA.... then 5 with NJ... etc etc etc then they shake it and pick one... then it would be luck of being on the actual paper that they picked. yes. Cause you're straight up picking the team.

But it's not what it is. they get a # out of 4 balls... they use that number and go the board where all the combinations are there and were assigned based on position. That's different. 

to make it simpler... it's more like... there's no ball with teams logo on it that they pick... it's like if there was 15 balls... they pick a ball... say they pick 3... they go see which team is 3... it's us. Boom. we win. But if another team was 3 then they win. 

 You’ve made your lack of understanding of probability abundantly clear. Whether it’s a number combination or a ping pong ball is irrelevant. You get MORE  combinations just like you’d get MORE ping pong balls in my example. It’s the exact same thing, I just tried to make it easier for you to understand. You acknowledged that the lower you are the more combinations you get, but you don’t understand that the higher teams still get SOME combinations, and can still win with the ones they have.

12 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Huh, you just explained exactly why this isn't what happens with the rest of your post. 

I’m glad it’s not just me. 

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Regarding the Devils vs. Kings lottery odds, it's really not worth getting bent out of shape about at this point. The <5% difference in our probability of getting into the top 2 is hardly significant, and we'll all look pretty ridiculous being upset about it if we happen to win the lottery, and LA gets bumped back. In fact, it's likely that a team with a better record will pass us and draft in the top 3. Guess we should have won more games, then.

 

EDIT: and just for fun, I ran tankathon one single time after posting this. Devils moved up to 1, Kings back to 4. 

Edited by nessus

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16 minutes ago, nessus said:

Regarding the Devils vs. Kings lottery odds, it's really not worth getting bent out of shape about at this point. The <5% difference in our probability of getting into the top 2 is hardly significant, and we'll all look pretty ridiculous being upset about it if we happen to win the lottery, and LA gets bumped back. In fact, it's likely that a team with a better record will pass us and draft in the top 3. Guess we should have won more games, then.

 

EDIT: and just for fun, I ran tankathon one single time after posting this. Devils moved up to 1, Kings back to 4. 

Precisely right. That’s what the lottery system is designed to do. If it was straight up “worst team gets best pick”, then the argument SD made would be valid. But at this point, there’s no correlation between standing position and draft position. Only correlation is with the odds of moving up (or down). 

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Considering we've won the lottery twice in the last 8 or so years (Rules were different but we did win the lottery the year we got Larsson) so we have no right to get bent out of shape even if we fall to sixth.   If we don't hit on the top 3 though it would be nice to stay within range to get Byram.   

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That’s right. If I’m not mistaken we had an 8.5% chance of the first overall pick in 2017. I saw this year’s odds were 11.5%. 

Further proof of my point. Two teams finishing worse than us did not mean we did not get the first overall pick; we just had tougher odds to beat. Same could happen this year, or it could not. But it’s not automatic that winning the last game gets us a lower pick. 

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6 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

 You’ve made your lack of understanding of probability abundantly clear. Whether it’s a number combination or a ping pong ball is irrelevant. You get MORE  combinations just like you’d get MORE ping pong balls in my example. It’s the exact same thing, I just tried to make it easier for you to understand. You acknowledged that the lower you are the more combinations you get, but you don’t understand that the higher teams still get SOME combinations, and can still win with the ones they have.

I’m glad it’s not just me. 

lol It's not irrelevant at all and based on all your comment you're the one not understanding or trying to understand my point. I had a buddy over and actually explain him your stance and my stance to see if i was just wrong and he said i got it. Now, my buddy may be dumb or also wrong wtv but at least i'm trying to see your argument. You're not trying to understand mine at all and it's not about probability at all it's about how it's setup.

Here's how i see it. Say all the lottery balls have a state written on them... the lower you are the more balls/states you get. it's put in alphabetical order based on the position. Just like the series of combinations is given to every teams in order and based on their position. 

So say Colorado would get 8 balls... they get.. Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware. Then LA gets 6 balls.. Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho,  illinois, Indiana.... Then NJ gets 4, Lowa, kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana. Buffalo gets 2, Maine, Maryland. 

Now. They make the draw and they pick MAINE. Buffalo wins the lottery for first place BECAUSE they were at the position that got assigned to Maine because of the order. If Detroit would have been 4th they would have got Maine. If NJ would have been 4th they would have got Maine.

So there's a difference with that setup and a setup where there would be 8 balls with the colorado logo, 6 with the LA logo, 4 with the NJ logo etc etc. A combination is picked and then looked up to a master list where the combinations were assigned based on position

Edited by SterioDesign

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7 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

You're not trying to understand mine at all and it's not about probability at all it's about how it's setup.

So...your position is...in a lottery system...it’s not about probability?

Let me ask you this, then...how did we draft Nico with the third best position? 

Edited by mfitz804

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