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Debate: Devils vs. Flyers - Recent Drafting History

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Hey guys - from a sheer drafting standpoint, i thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Devils vs Flyers Recent 1st rd  Drafting History.  Really it shows a few major misses and makes you wonder what could have been, especially with Lou and Conte running the ship.

 

2018 

Devils:  Ty Smith (17th Overall)

Flyers: Joel Farabee (14th Overall) & Jay O'Brien (19th Overall)

My Take:  Too early to tell, Smith looks great, but Farabee is having a great freshman season too!  (Incomplete)

 

2017

Devils:  Nico Hischier (1st Overall)

Flyers:  Nolan Patrick (2nd Overall)

My Take:  Devils made the right choice here, but I truly believe this will be a 1a and 1b draft.   (+1 Devils).  

Note:  Boqvist in Rd 2 looks like the real deal.  Don't know about Isiah Radcliffe (but he has 47 goals in 59 games for Guelph)

 

2016

Devils: MIke McLeod (12th Overall)

Flyers: German Rubtsov (22nd Overall)

My Take:  I am going to call this Incomplete as well, as both players are still too green.  McLeod needs some work, but where we drafted him 12th, he probably feels more like a player that would have been drafted 22nd like Rubtsov.  

 

2015

Devils:  Pavel Zacha (6th Overall)

Flyers:  Ivan Provorov (7th Overall)

My Take:  Flyers get a double bonus on this one.  Our team would look very different with Provorov on the backline right now.  I still have hope for Zacha, but not the best choice here.    (+2 Flyers)

 

2014

Devils: John Quennville (30th Overall)

Flyers:  Travis Sanheim (17th Overall)

My Take: Sanheim really starting to develop into a quality NHLer, something Quennville wouldn't.  This was part of the Kovalchuk Debacle, so I forget where the Devils would have picked here if the pick wasn't moved to 30th. (+1 Flyers)

 

2013

Devils:  No Pick

Flyers: Samuel Morin (11th)

My Take:  Bust for Flyers, No Pick for Devils - No Contest

 

2012

Devils: Stefan Matteau (29th Overall Pick)

Flyers:  Scott Laughton (20th Overall Pick)

My Take:  Matteau a nothing, Laughton is a servicable 3rd lind grinder.  (Flyers +1)

 

2011:

Devils:  Adam Larsson (5th Overall)

Flyers: Sean Couturier (8th Overall)

My Take:  Yes Larsson led to Hall which is great, but for the purposes of this, Couturier has developed into an awesome 2-way NHL Selke Type Forward.  Great Pick by the Flyers, and Larsson is nothing that the experts expected him to be.  His offense is much less than expectations were for him (+2 Flyers)

From 2011 - 2018 (With 2 INC Years): It is clear to me that the Flyers have eaten our lunch drafting in the first round.  I really think Lou and Conte did a horrible job using this as a comparison.  So Far Castron and Shero have righted the ship (from what we can see), but I believe it is going to take 2-3 more years to start seeing the fruits of these drafts, like the Flyers are seeing from 2011 - 2015 now.

Sorry for the long post, I've just been thinking about our drafting woes and watching some of the flyers kids develop has made me kind of envious!  I do believe in what Shero and Castron are doing with the kids.  It is just hard to watch with the injuries and stay patient with the kids who are still developing.

I am always curious to see what other like minded Devils fans think!

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Love the idea of this. Wouldn't mind seeing us head to head with the rest of the Met too, but it is pretty obvious NJ will come out on the bottom against every other team and confirm what we already know.

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Interesting comparison, thanks for putting this together.

I think it's become pretty clear just how poorly we've drafted over the past 10 years when you look around the league and see most teams have at least 2 or 3 exciting prospects in their pipeline.  We didn't, prior to lucking into Nico and (maybe) Smith.

Looking at the bigger picture.. I fear we're further off than many realize. 

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2 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Interesting comparison, thanks for putting this together.

I think it's become pretty clear just how poorly we've drafted over the past 10 years when you look around the league and see most teams have at least 2 or 3 exciting prospects in their pipeline.  We didn't, prior to lucking into Nico and (maybe) Smith.

Looking at the bigger picture.. I fear we're further off than many realize. 

This is 100% correct.  Right now is the time that the kids who were drafted from 2011 - 2015 are starting to peak, and we have very little that came out of those drafts.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Interesting comparison, thanks for putting this together.

I think it's become pretty clear just how poorly we've drafted over the past 10 years when you look around the league and see most teams have at least 2 or 3 exciting prospects in their pipeline.  We didn't, prior to lucking into Nico and (maybe) Smith.

Looking at the bigger picture.. I fear we're further off than many realize. 

I’d consider Blackwood an exciting prospect. 

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Just now, Nicomo said:

I’d consider Blackwood an exciting prospect. 

I think this is a fair statement, but at the same time, you have to hit those 1st rd picks and hope you do something in a later round somewhere.  2015 draft has some bits of hope, with Blackwood being the biggest one now, but he really just started to come on this year.  Lets hope we have something more than an "Andrew Hammond" type explosion.  I think we do too!

 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

I’d consider Blackwood an exciting prospect. 

That Jesper Bratt guy is okay too.

Edited by MadDog2020
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4 hours ago, CMONPETEYD said:

This is 100% correct.  Right now is the time that the kids who were drafted from 2011 - 2015 are starting to peak, and we have very little that came out of those drafts.  

 

Something I think about a lot off of this point is the importance of clustering successful drafts. You become great by clustering successful drafts and then maintain it by supplementing that by not having complete whiff draft classes. I go here a lot to look at our teams draft history a lot: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00007066.html

Late 80's and early 90's draft are what sparked the Devils dynasty. There wasn't a "whiff" draft from '89 to '95 really. We drafted at least one player who went on to play 1000 games every year and regularly drafted multiple players playing over 700 NHL games (~10 seasons worth of regular seasons). The drafts start to dwindle in consistency after a good '98 class, with some that I would classify as complete whiffs in '99, 2000 (debatable), 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2013 (miles wood only +), 2014. There wasn't a single class from '99 to 2014 that will likely have multiple players play over 700 games (maybe 2011 with larsson and coleman, but that is no lock with coleman just starting to accrue). That string of failure is absolutely crippling to a franchise. It really is amazing to look back at how bad some of those classes are and how none found multiple NHL players. 

Now from 2015 on there are some likely productive draft classes.

2015: Say what you want about Zacha, but he's likely to meet my admittedly arbitrary "success" metric of 700 GP. Not ready to put Blackwood there yet, but at least he has a chance to add to the class. 

2016: Bratt is just about a lock reach the 700 GP and then some potential depth in the class with McLeod/Anderson/Davies. 

2017: Nico will play over 1000 barring injury. Then there were 10 other picks made in the class. Have to think 1 or 2 (Boqvist, Walsh, Studenic, Talvitie) will add to the success of the class. 

2018: Ty Smith might need to save this class from a whiff, but he seems to be on track to do just that. Too early to write anyone off so maybe another emerges. 

2019: Top 6 pick and then 9 other picks to use. 

 

Obviously extremely doubtful that we are able to get the amount of top level legend-status talent like from '89 to '95, but maybe this is the start of adding NHL talent in a  sustained year to year basis. Continuing that is our road back IMHO. 

 

 

 

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To loop my previous post into this thread topic: 

Flyers vs. Devils full class: 

2012: Ghost vs. Severson (probably prefer the flyers class)

2013 Hagg vs Wood (both bad drafts, I'll take the devils class)

2014: Sanheim vs nobody (Flyers win)

2015: Provrov + Konecny vs Zacha/Blackwood (Flyers win unless Blackwood becomes the devils starter for a decade)

2016: Carter Hart vs Bratt/depth pieces (Hart is flyers goalie cursed, so I'll take the Devils draft)

2017: Patrik and Frost vs Nico and Boqvist (I will go against the OP and say I MUCH prefer Nico over Patrik. Frost is ahead of Boqvist at the moment, but I like the depth in the devils 11 picks that year. DEVILS WIN). 

2018: Farabee vs. Smith (advantage Flyers, but much too early to call it). 

2019: Devils top 5 pick vs. flyers teen pick with the devils having an additional 10 picks in a well regarded draft. This is where we win in a landslide and have the advantage for the next two decades over the enemies from Philadelphia. 

 

 

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On 3/4/2019 at 10:32 AM, CMONPETEYD said:

2011:

Devils:  Adam Larsson (5th Overall)

Flyers: Sean Couturier (8th Overall)

My Take:  Yes Larsson led to Hall which is great, but for the purposes of this, Couturier has developed into an awesome 2-way NHL Selke Type Forward.  Great Pick by the Flyers, and Larsson is nothing that the experts expected him to be.  His offense is much less than expectations were for him (+2 Flyers)

*4th overall, lottery pick moved us from the 8th overall to the 4th (not 5th)

This is a difficult thing to compare and you're trying to assess draft skill - which really needs to look at draft positioning.    Do I take Adam Larrson or Sean Couturier in 2019?  I still think this team needs that defenseman; then and now.   Does Couturier ever have the value of Hall?  No.    But to be fair neither did Larrson lol.    

Prior to winning the lottery;  Couturier was on this boards short list along with Dougie Hamilton; but then we won the lottery and grabbed Larsson.     I'm almost glad we didn't get the 1st overall pick; because we would have taken RNH and would have passed over Landeskog and Huberdeau which would hurt...  rather than just missing out on them - which is life.

But to reiterate, especially at the top of the draft - you're almost pre-slotted into like 2-3 guys...    looking back 8 years later to say what we should have done is some really generous hindsight.      Judging against draft peers +/- a pick or two... and wider as you go down the first round.

The end point...  our drafting has sucked.  Against our division sure... but more importantly our drafting peers.

     

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Taking Jay O’Brien when guys like Merkeley, Miller, Kupari and Veleno (just to name a few) were available was a real head scratcher.  Even at the time it was obviously a huge reach, and a pick you had to get right for credibility sakes.  Right now, based on his production, it looks like he’s heading to bustville.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/4/2019 at 4:23 PM, Steadevils said:

To loop my previous post into this thread topic: 

Flyers vs. Devils full class: 

2012: Ghost vs. Severson (probably prefer the flyers class)

2013 Hagg vs Wood (both bad drafts, I'll take the devils class)

2014: Sanheim vs nobody (Flyers win)

2015: Provrov + Konecny vs Zacha/Blackwood (Flyers win unless Blackwood becomes the devils starter for a decade)

2016: Carter Hart vs Bratt/depth pieces (Hart is flyers goalie cursed, so I'll take the Devils draft)

2017: Patrik and Frost vs Nico and Boqvist (I will go against the OP and say I MUCH prefer Nico over Patrik. Frost is ahead of Boqvist at the moment, but I like the depth in the devils 11 picks that year. DEVILS WIN). 

2018: Farabee vs. Smith (advantage Flyers, but much too early to call it). 

2019: Devils top 5 pick vs. flyers teen pick with the devils having an additional 10 picks in a well regarded draft. This is where we win in a landslide and have the advantage for the next two decades over the enemies from Philadelphia. 

 

 

Ghost outside of that rookie year is overrated. I'd take Severson easy.

Patrick and Nico are both great players. Both teams win there. I see both as very likely future Captains.

 

Carter Hart also looks like the real deal. Curse may very well be over 

Edited by CarterforPresident

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On 3/5/2019 at 5:56 PM, Daniel said:

Taking Jay O’Brien when guys like Merkeley, Miller, Kupari and Veleno (just to name a few) were available was a real head scratcher.  Even at the time it was obviously a huge reach, and a pick you had to get right for credibility sakes.  Right now, based on his production, it looks like he’s heading to bustville.

 

Right, and that's kinda the point I was getting at with Larsson vs Couturier.   You can't skip over can't miss talent... even if they kinda miss.      And it's unfair to say the Devils are poorer at drafting because of it. 

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4 hours ago, aylbert said:

Right, and that's kinda the point I was getting at with Larsson vs Couturier.   You can't skip over can't miss talent... even if they kinda miss.      And it's unfair to say the Devils are poorer at drafting because of it. 

I'll still give the edge to the Flyers because they've gotten more picks right, or appear that they will.  It's not even a contest if you go back to 2005.  That's why the Jay O'Brien pick was so surprising as it was completely out of character.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/4/2019 at 4:23 PM, Steadevils said:

To loop my previous post into this thread topic: 

Flyers vs. Devils full class: 

2012: Ghost vs. Severson (probably prefer the flyers class)

2013 Hagg vs Wood (both bad drafts, I'll take the devils class)

2014: Sanheim vs nobody (Flyers win)

2015: Provrov + Konecny vs Zacha/Blackwood (Flyers win unless Blackwood becomes the devils starter for a decade)

2016: Carter Hart vs Bratt/depth pieces (Hart is flyers goalie cursed, so I'll take the Devils draft)

2017: Patrik and Frost vs Nico and Boqvist (I will go against the OP and say I MUCH prefer Nico over Patrik. Frost is ahead of Boqvist at the moment, but I like the depth in the devils 11 picks that year. DEVILS WIN). 

2018: Farabee vs. Smith (advantage Flyers, but much too early to call it). 

2019: Devils top 5 pick vs. flyers teen pick with the devils having an additional 10 picks in a well regarded draft. This is where we win in a landslide and have the advantage for the next two decades over the enemies from Philadelphia. 

Bolded is the only one I don't agree with. This should be yet to be determined. It''s not like Smith hasn't progressed just as well as Farabee (they have both been impressive this season). And defensemen are worth more than left wingers by a fair margin. 

 

Bolded is the only one I don't agree with. This should be yet to be determined. It''s not like Smith hasn't progressed just as well as Farabee (they have both been impressive this seasoon). And defensemen are worth more than left wingers by a fair margin. 

Edited by Toasterleavins

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On 3/4/2019 at 10:32 AM, CMONPETEYD said:

Hey guys - from a sheer drafting standpoint, i thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Devils vs Flyers Recent 1st rd  Drafting History.  Really it shows a few major misses and makes you wonder what could have been, especially with Lou and Conte running the ship.

 

2018 

Devils:  Ty Smith (17th Overall)

Flyers: Joel Farabee (14th Overall) & Jay O'Brien (19th Overall)

My Take:  Too early to tell, Smith looks great, but Farabee is having a great freshman season too!  (Incomplete)

 

2017

Devils:  Nico Hischier (1st Overall)

Flyers:  Nolan Patrick (2nd Overall)

My Take:  Devils made the right choice here, but I truly believe this will be a 1a and 1b draft.   (+1 Devils).  

Note:  Boqvist in Rd 2 looks like the real deal.  Don't know about Isiah Radcliffe (but he has 47 goals in 59 games for Guelph)

 

2016

Devils: MIke McLeod (12th Overall)

Flyers: German Rubtsov (22nd Overall)

My Take:  I am going to call this Incomplete as well, as both players are still too green.  McLeod needs some work, but where we drafted him 12th, he probably feels more like a player that would have been drafted 22nd like Rubtsov.  

 

2015

Devils:  Pavel Zacha (6th Overall)

Flyers:  Ivan Provorov (7th Overall)

My Take:  Flyers get a double bonus on this one.  Our team would look very different with Provorov on the backline right now.  I still have hope for Zacha, but not the best choice here.    (+2 Flyers)

 

2014

Devils: John Quennville (30th Overall)

Flyers:  Travis Sanheim (17th Overall)

My Take: Sanheim really starting to develop into a quality NHLer, something Quennville wouldn't.  This was part of the Kovalchuk Debacle, so I forget where the Devils would have picked here if the pick wasn't moved to 30th. (+1 Flyers)

 

2013

Devils:  No Pick

Flyers: Samuel Morin (11th)

My Take:  Bust for Flyers, No Pick for Devils - No Contest

 

2012

Devils: Stefan Matteau (29th Overall Pick)

Flyers:  Scott Laughton (20th Overall Pick)

My Take:  Matteau a nothing, Laughton is a servicable 3rd lind grinder.  (Flyers +1)

 

2011:

Devils:  Adam Larsson (5th Overall)

Flyers: Sean Couturier (8th Overall)

My Take:  Yes Larsson led to Hall which is great, but for the purposes of this, Couturier has developed into an awesome 2-way NHL Selke Type Forward.  Great Pick by the Flyers, and Larsson is nothing that the experts expected him to be.  His offense is much less than expectations were for him (+2 Flyers)

From 2011 - 2018 (With 2 INC Years): It is clear to me that the Flyers have eaten our lunch drafting in the first round.  I really think Lou and Conte did a horrible job using this as a comparison.  So Far Castron and Shero have righted the ship (from what we can see), but I believe it is going to take 2-3 more years to start seeing the fruits of these drafts, like the Flyers are seeing from 2011 - 2015 now.

Sorry for the long post, I've just been thinking about our drafting woes and watching some of the flyers kids develop has made me kind of envious!  I do believe in what Shero and Castron are doing with the kids.  It is just hard to watch with the injuries and stay patient with the kids who are still developing.

I am always curious to see what other like minded Devils fans think!

Hopefully everything after David Conte will turn out decent. Hopefully Castron picks will turn out productive.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/4/2019 at 11:48 AM, Devilsfan118 said:

Interesting comparison, thanks for putting this together.

I think it's become pretty clear just how poorly we've drafted over the past 10 years when you look around the league and see most teams have at least 2 or 3 exciting prospects in their pipeline.  We didn't, prior to lucking into Nico and (maybe) Smith.

Looking at the bigger picture.. I fear we're further off than many realize. 

Well we've been drafting poorly in the first round for WELL over 10 years tho lol And obviously we all know there's luck and all going into the draft.... but you still need to get better results over such a long time than this... Conte was fvcking horrible... 4 good picks through those 18 drafts... horrible. Makes his stats even worst if we add Matteau, Quenneville, Santini and Zacha

let's go further...

2010: Merrill - 297 GP

2009: Josefon - 315 GP

2008: Tedenby - 120 GP

2007: we didnt pick

2006: Corrente - 34 GP

2005: Bergfors - 173 GP

2004: Zajac - 909 GP

2003: Parise - 939 GP

2002: we didnt pick

2001: Foster - 0 GP

2000: Hale - 327 GP

1999: Ahonen - 0 GP

1998: Van Ryn - 353 GP / Gomez - 1079 GP

1997: Damphousse - 6 GP

1996: Ward - 209 GP

1995: Sykora - 1017 GP

1994: Sharifijanov - 92 GP

1993: Pederson - 435 GP

 

Edited by SterioDesign
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7 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Well we've been drafting poorly in the first round for WELL over 10 years tho lol And obviously we all know there's luck and all going into the draft.... but you still need to get better results over such a long time than this... Conte was fvcking horrible... 4 good picks through those 18 drafts... horrible. Makes his stats even worst if we add Matteau, Quenneville, Santini and Zacha

let's go further...

2010: Merrill - 297 GP

2009: Josefon - 315 GP

2008: Tedenby - 120 GP

2007: we didnt pick

2006: Corrente - 34 GP

2005: Bergfors - 173 GP

2004: Zajac - 909 GP

2003: Parise - 939 GP

2002: we didnt pick

2001: Foster - 0 GP

2000: Hale - 327 GP

1999: Ahonen - 0 GP

1998: Van Ryn - 353 GP / Gomez - 1079 GP

1997: Damphousse - 6 GP

1996: Ward - 209 GP

1995: Sykora - 1017 GP

1994: Sharifijanov - 92 GP

1993: Pederson - 435 GP

 

You aren’t supposed to write this out, you’re supposed to pretend it never happened. 

Its arguable that 2002 and 2007 are tied for the fifth best drafts on that list. 

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10 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Well we've been drafting poorly in the first round for WELL over 10 years tho lol And obviously we all know there's luck and all going into the draft.... but you still need to get better results over such a long time than this... Conte was fvcking horrible... 4 good picks through those 18 drafts... horrible. Makes his stats even worst if we add Matteau, Quenneville, Santini and Zacha

let's go further...

2010: Merrill - 297 GP

2009: Josefon - 315 GP

2008: Tedenby - 120 GP

2007: we didnt pick

2006: Corrente - 34 GP

2005: Bergfors - 173 GP

2004: Zajac - 909 GP

2003: Parise - 939 GP

2002: we didnt pick

2001: Foster - 0 GP

2000: Hale - 327 GP

1999: Ahonen - 0 GP

1998: Van Ryn - 353 GP / Gomez - 1079 GP

1997: Damphousse - 6 GP

1996: Ward - 209 GP

1995: Sykora - 1017 GP

1994: Sharifijanov - 92 GP

1993: Pederson - 435 GP

 

To be fair, you are only looking at first rounders in those 18 years, so saying 4 picks in 18 draft years is mis-leading.  Go the entire draft rounds and you will be adding guys like Pando, Morrison, Oliwa, Elias, Henrique, Souray, Sullivan, McCauley, White, Mitchell, B. Gionta, Commodore, Martin, Rupp, Engelland, Janssen and Fayne in just the years you listed.

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Comparing how much better our late rounders were than our first rounders sounds fun. 

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12 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Well we've been drafting poorly in the first round for WELL over 10 years tho lol And obviously we all know there's luck and all going into the draft.... but you still need to get better results over such a long time than this... Conte was fvcking horrible... 4 good picks through those 18 drafts... horrible. Makes his stats even worst if we add Matteau, Quenneville, Santini and Zacha

And Conte is still well-regarded around the league, it seems.

Crazy.

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Conte was not good, but the real lesson here should be that the late 1st round is not a place where teams are likely to find future NHLers.

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2 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

To be fair, you are only looking at first rounders in those 18 years, so saying 4 picks in 18 draft years is mis-leading.  Go the entire draft rounds and you will be adding guys like Pando, Morrison, Oliwa, Elias, Henrique, Souray, Sullivan, McCauley, White, Mitchell, B. Gionta, Commodore, Martin, Rupp, Engelland, Janssen and Fayne in just the years you listed.

yeah but the OP specified the exercise was looking at first round picks

Not even sure if you're joking with some of the players you listed tho lol 

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3 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

yeah but the OP specified the exercise was looking at first round picks

Not even sure if you're joking with some of the players you listed tho lol 

Whether their role was flashy or not, guys like Oliwa, Rupp and Janssen managed to have NHL careers. That's a lot more than can be said for Matt Corrente or Adrian Foster.

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