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MadDog2020

GDT: Devils @ Red Wings 7:30 PM

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4 hours ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Please do not win.

This is *literally* not true lol.

According to ESPN, there is a two percent difference in the chance for top pick between us and Detroit at the current standings, so statistically nothing like I said. People get all hung up on finishing last, but there is no real benefit to that VS third or fourth last. 

Edited by Rob_Ottawa
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5 minutes ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

According to ESPN, there is a two percent difference in the chance for top pick between us and Detroit at the current standings, so statistically nothing like I said. People get all hung up on finishing last, but there is no real benefit to that VS third or fourth last. 

You're wrong-- not only for the lottery chances but also because if you don't win the lotto and you get pushed down it could be the difference between picking top in the top 3 or 5 or 10. It helps.

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Ya I just meant in terms of the top pick. I forgot about the reseeding after that. But for top pick I'm right. 

Edited by Rob_Ottawa

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Lotsa happy tankers tonight I’m sure.  

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18 minutes ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

According to ESPN, there is a two percent difference in the chance for top pick between us and Detroit at the current standings, so statistically nothing like I said. People get all hung up on finishing last, but there is no real benefit to that VS third or fourth last. 

the point is not just about winning the lottery but about not dropping too much say teams behind us win the lottery. Last year the whole top 3 was pushed to 4-5-6 i believe... it does make a difference

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12 minutes ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

Ya I just meant in terms of the top pick. I forgot about the reseeding after that. But for top pick I'm right. 

Here's the actual numbers, in case you're interested. This is from Todd Cordell who knows his sh!t: 

This game is extremely important to both sides as it's entirely possible – perhaps even likely – the winner finishes 28th while the loser finishes 29th. The difference in such is larger than you'd think. The team that slots 29th has a 33.9% of picking in the top-3 and an 84.8% of chance of picking in the top-5. The team that slots 28th has a 28.8% of winning a top-3 pick and just a 57.7% chance of picking in the top-5. The gap in chance of a top-3 pick isn't large, however, the difference in winning a top-5 pick is 27.1%. That's no small gap. 

From this article: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=98608

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22 minutes ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

Ya I just meant in terms of the top pick. I forgot about the reseeding after that. But for top pick I'm right. 

A few years ago the team that had the 11.5%(Where NJ is now I believe) chance to win the lottery won it. A couple % less and they wouldn't have. Edmonton selected Connor McDavid. It is like having a chance for there to be one less team that could be picked out of the hat. Every little bit matters.

Edited by NJDevils1214

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it's totally possible that we're all happy to be 28th and that turns out 27th wins the lottery and get Hughes. Totally possible. It's luck, but just like anything we don't have control over luck so the best thing we can do is be in the best favorable position. Which we're working on

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We got shutout by 2 different goalies tonight. 6th time we have been shutout this year. 4 more games until this putrid season is finally over. Not soon enough. 

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10 hours ago, NJDevils1214 said:

A few years ago the team that had the 11.5%(Where NJ is now I believe) chance to win the lottery won it. A couple % less and they wouldn't have. Edmonton selected Connor McDavid. It is like having a chance for there to be one less team that could be picked out of the hat. Every little bit matters.

Nonsense. Two percent has no statistical impact on that result. Edm won it with luck and two percent wouldn't have changed that. 

But, the reseeding after the first round is definitely important, as there can be a huge difference in picking one pick lower in later rounds. 

Edited by Rob_Ottawa

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2 hours ago, Rob_Ottawa said:

Nonsense. Two percent has no statistical impact on that result. Edm won it with luck and two percent wouldn't have changed that. 

But, the reseeding after the first round is definitely important, as there can be a huge difference in picking one pick lower in later rounds. 

You stay with luck then and I'll go with statistical probably. One is grounded in reality and the other one just leaves everything up to superstitious nonsense.

Feel free to hold the opinion you'd still rather win at this point in the season than lose. It's totally your preference and it's valid. It is, however, just objectively wrong to say that it doesn't make a difference.

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