Taylor Hall to AZ, 1st Rnd pick, 3rd Rnd Conditonal Pick, Bahl and 2 Prospects.Dvs Retain 50% salary

[NJDfan1711]

6 hours ago, aylbert said:

A year older than Seguin (Jan 31 1992)?   He’s 2.5 months older (Nov 14 1991).  Panarin is “older” being October 30, 1991.

Let’s just say they that trio is all the same age...  

He signs a massive deal wherever he wants and any injury history is flat out ignored... because you don’t NOT sign Taylor Hall at 10/11mm a season.

Yeah, I didn't look at the months, only the year. 

Also, I said I'd sign Taylor at 10 or 10.5 all day long.  11 is where it gets a little dicey for me.

[Nicomo]

7 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Yeah, I didn't look at the months, only the year. 

Also, I said I'd sign Taylor at 10 or 10.5 all day long.  11 is where it gets a little dicey for me.

You would risk losing out on Hall over .5 million? 

[SterioDesign]

Just now, Nicomo said:

You would risk losing out on Hall over .5 million? 

well its 4 millions technically not 0.5

[NJDfan1711]

4 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

You would risk losing out on Hall over .5 million? 

Probably not, but the point is that there's a line.  You could say that about anyone/any number.  For example, what's the most you'd be comfortable giving him?  11.5 for 8 years?  If that's the case, say he wanted 12M - would you risk losing him over that .5?  You could essentially do that forever and ever, arguing over an extra mil or half mil...

[aylbert]

4 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Probably not, but the point is that there's a line.  You could say that about anyone/any number.  For example, what's the most you'd be comfortable giving him?  11.5 for 8 years?  If that's the case, say he wanted 12M - would you risk losing him over that .5?  You could essentially do that forever and ever, arguing over an extra mil or half mil...

Well, forever until max... Which I believe is $16.3mm   (20% of cap)

I stand by you *have* to sign Hall at any term for 10/11mm.       Any higher, you don't *have* to sign him...  but who are you replacing him with - are the dollars being better spent in the next 2 seasons?   
And that's how you lose somebody when they cross that line in your payroll budget.

My top would be 12mm I think...     McDavid is alone at 12.5mm a season; followed by Panarin and Matthews at 11.6 aav  (https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/current_nhl_salaries.cgi)

[mfitz804]

9 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Probably not, but the point is that there's a line.  You could say that about anyone/any number.  For example, what's the most you'd be comfortable giving him?  11.5 for 8 years?  If that's the case, say he wanted 12M - would you risk losing him over that .5?  You could essentially do that forever and ever, arguing over an extra mil or half mil...

No, you missed the point. It can’t go on forever. If you think he’s worth $11m, an extra .5 makes it $11.5m. 

If you think he’s worth $11m, going to $12m is an extra million, and so forth. You don’t slide up the bottom number and say “well, if he’s worth $11m, then he’s worth $11.5, 12,  50, whatever”. You say “He’s worth $11m but I’d “overpay” what I think he’s worth by $500k to get him”. That’s why it doesn’t continue, how much more than the “value” you assign to him are you willing to go?

1 minute ago, aylbert said:

Well, forever until max... Which I believe is $16.3mm   (20% of cap)

I stand by you *have* to sign Hall at any term for 10/11mm.       Any higher, you don't *have* to sign him...  but who are you replacing him with - are the dollars being better spent in the next 2 seasons?   
And that's how you lose somebody when they cross that line in your payroll budget.

My top would be 12mm I think...     McDavid is alone at 12.5mm a season; followed by Panarin and Matthews at 11.6 aav  (https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/current_nhl_salaries.cgi)

To me, I look at Panarin’s deal, and Tavares’ deal, and think that Tavares gave a discount. Taylor probably gets somewhere close to Panarin. If it’s $11m or $11.6m, I think you get that done. 

If he’s looking to be the top paid player in the sport, I think he’s way off base. 

[Crisis]

58 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

To me, I look at Panarin’s deal, and Tavares’ deal, and think that Tavares gave a discount. Taylor probably gets somewhere close to Panarin. If it’s $11m or $11.6m, I think you get that done. 

If he’s looking to be the top paid player in the sport, I think he’s way off base. 

I think this says it all right here and I'm sure Shero would have no problem signing up for that too barring any undisclosed information about the severity of the knee injury that the team has and we do not.

[Daniel]

Hall has said before that he's "made his money."  So I could see him taking less in AAV than he otherwise could to give the team a little more cap flexibility and so long as it doesn't get the PA angry at him.  It would probably be the Seguin deal just taking into account either higher NJ taxes or how much the cap has gone up (not much).

[mfitz804]

8 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Hall has said before that he's "made his money."  So I could see him taking less in AAV than he otherwise could to give the team a little more cap flexibility and so long as it doesn't get the PA angry at him.  It would probably be the Seguin deal just taking into account either higher NJ taxes or how much the cap has gone up (not much).

That’s absolutely the worst case scenario, because it takes away our main advantage (cap room/ability to pay him a lot). 

If he’s willing to take less, he’ll have the opportunity to take it from teams with a (perceived) better chance to win. 

[NJDfan1711]

2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

No, you missed the point. It can’t go on forever. If you think he’s worth $11m, an extra .5 makes it $11.5m. 

If you think he’s worth $11m, going to $12m is an extra million, and so forth. You don’t slide up the bottom number and say “well, if he’s worth $11m, then he’s worth $11.5, 12,  50, whatever”. You say “He’s worth $11m but I’d “overpay” what I think he’s worth by $500k to get him”. That’s why it doesn’t continue, how much more than the “value” you assign to him are you willing to go?

 

Not really sure what you mean or are getting at.  I *think* at the end we're essentially saying the same thing.  The 'value' I'm assigning to Hall is roughly 10-10.5M over 8 years.  If you want an exact number, then OK, we can say 10.5.  If it's going to take an 'overpayment' in the order of half a million dollars in order to get him to stay, then you could say through the process of negotiation I'd be willing to give my "max offer", aka, an overpayment, at 11M.  That's where I draw the line though, and why I said in my original response that there was a line. The point was not to suggest that the offer would continue going up, but rather, because we're all different and have different valuations of Hall, whatever that number is in your head, my head, or anyone else's, you could essentially argue it's not worth losing him over that "insignificant" amount and difference, and tack on that extra half mil regardless of what the base starting number is.

[Daniel]

53 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

That’s absolutely the worst case scenario, because it takes away our main advantage (cap room/ability to pay him a lot). 

If he’s willing to take less, he’ll have the opportunity to take it from teams with a (perceived) better chance to win. 

We can give him another year unless he’s traded.

[mfitz804]

1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Not really sure what you mean or are getting at.  I *think* at the end we're essentially saying the same thing.  The 'value' I'm assigning to Hall is roughly 10-10.5M over 8 years.  If you want an exact number, then OK, we can say 10.5.  If it's going to take an 'overpayment' in the order of half a million dollars in order to get him to stay, then you could say through the process of negotiation I'd be willing to give my "max offer", aka, an overpayment, at 11M.  That's where I draw the line though, and why I said in my original response that there was a line. 

You are suggesting that you could add an extra $500k or $1m "forever and ever", but it would never work that way, because the baseline would never change. You wouldn't just keep sliding it up by $500k "forever and ever". 

1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

The point was not to suggest that the offer would continue going up, but rather, because we're all different and have different valuations of Hall, whatever that number is in your head, my head, or anyone else's, you could essentially argue it's not worth losing him over that "insignificant" amount and difference, and tack on that extra half mil regardless of what the base starting number is.

I'd argue you could do exactly that, regardless of where you have him valued. If you thought he was worth $12m, and you could give him $12m/8, you aren't going to lose a player that you think is worth $12m by refusing him an extra $500k to $12.5m if that's what it needs to be. It all depends on what the baseline value is. And yeah, everyone has a different one. Other than the guy who actually counts. 

If you think a guy is worth $12m, you think he's one of if not the best players in the league. If you let him walk over $500k, you're a fool. 

[Neb00rs]

Saying you're not too keen on signing Hall at or above 11M is akin to saying you're not keen on signing him at market value. Such a statement reflects one of two things: 1. You're not following the market or 2. You're not so hot on Taylor Hall.

 

[mfitz804]

50 minutes ago, Daniel said:

We can give him another year unless he’s traded.

Yes, or he could take a 7 year deal (or a 5 year deal) and get another huge pay raise after he wins a couple of Cups. So there's that too. 

I still think the main advantage we have is not the 8th year, but rather the fact that a bunch of the teams who are "ready" to win can't afford what we can afford to pay him. 

If he is ok with taking less, then it's not going to be from us. No agent on earth would permit him to take less to stay in NJ when they clearly have the available money to pay him. 

[Neb00rs]

2 hours ago, Daniel said:

Hall has said before that he's "made his money."  So I could see him taking less in AAV than he otherwise could to give the team a little more cap flexibility and so long as it doesn't get the PA angry at him.  It would probably be the Seguin deal just taking into account either higher NJ taxes or how much the cap has gone up (not much).

To put a number to what it would mean for Hall to take a discount - it would probably still be in the 10.5-11M range, despite the fact that some people here seem to think that's overpaying him. Hall can most likely easily fetch around 11.5 on the open market over a 7 year deal. I'm taking into account Panarin's contract (and it's widely accepted Panarin took less money in NYC) and age (age 28 season) when his contract begins (Hall will be 29 when his new deal starts). 

Hall taking Tavares' deal at 11M (started in age 28 season), a deal that would start two years after Tavares' deal started, would be a decent discount. Hall would be a year older than Tavares was when his deal starts and he would get the 8th year. So it's not too bad for Hall and saves the Devils from having to compete with what Hall would get in UFA. I'd be really content with 11M.

I think 10.5M is possible though, but it would be the very low end of what Hall would get in a team-friendly deal.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Neb00rs

[jagknife]

So Teddy Purcell was on last week’s Spittin Chiclets and talked about how his job working with Oates at his training/conditioning camp was going. Said Hallsy has been skating with them and has been “flying around the rink” to the point Purcell and Oates jokingly reminded Hall it was a 3 on 3 summer camp.

[NJDfan1711]

3 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

Saying you're not too keen on signing Hall at or above 11M is akin to saying you're not keen on signing him at market value. Such a statement reflects one of two things: 1. You're not following the market or 2. You're not so hot on Taylor Hall.

 

I'm not really sure that's market value when really only two other players are making that amount.  That's two players out of a league-wide, what, 500 total?  Not only that, but it's not fair to say just because I don't see him as an 11-12M+ player that I'm not so hot on him.  I think he's a terrific player.  And I also think we need him, but that's moreso an indictment against our team than it is his worth as a player and as a reflection of the current financial landscape around the league.  Hall is a great player who deserves to be making more money than 80-90% of the players in the league - I'm just not sure he should be making more than all but 2 or 3 players in the league are making (and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's what we've come to the conclusion of - that only 3 guys are now making over the 11/11.5M mark, right?)

Edited August 29, 2019 by NJDfan1711

[Neb00rs]

5 hours ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I'm not really sure that's market value when really only two other players are making that amount.  That's two players out of a league-wide, what, 500 total?  Not only that, but it's not fair to say just because I don't see him as an 11-12M+ player that I'm not so hot on him.  I think he's a terrific player.  And I also think we need him, but that's moreso an indictment against our team than it is his worth as a player and as a reflection of the current financial landscape around the league.  Hall is a great player who deserves to be making more money than 80-90% of the players in the league - I'm just not sure he should be making more than all but 2 or 3 players in the league are making (and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's what we've come to the conclusion of - that only 3 guys are now making over the 11/11.5M mark, right?)

How many guys won the league MVP two years ago?

Artemi Panarin just fetched 11.6M/7 on what is widely known to be a discounted deal to play in NYC. Erik Karlsson, who's contract also starts in his age 29 year and who is coming off a season where he had health issues, got 11.5M over 8 years.  One year ago John Tavares took a discount to sign with the Leafs at 11M/7. Outside of state tax-free states, 10M hasn't been the going rate for superstar players for a few years now. With all that said, if you think 11M is somehow not market rate for Taylor Hall, you're simply denying reality. Maybe, just maybe the Devils convince Hall to sign at 10.5M/8. That's the low end.

If you're point here is "Well, he's not nearly as good as McDavid, well, McDavid signed for 12.5M two years ago, well above what I predicted Hall would sign for.

[Antiquated Colorado Rockie]

1 hour ago, Neb00rs said:

How many guys won the league MVP two years ago?

Artemi Panarin just fetched 11.6M/7 on what is widely known to be a discounted deal to play in NYC. Erik Karlsson, who's contract also starts in his age 29 year and who is coming off a season where he had health issues, got 11.5M over 8 years.  One year ago John Tavares took a discount to sign with the Leafs at 11M/7. Outside of state tax-free states, 10M hasn't been the going rate for superstar players for a few years now. With all that said, if you think 11M is somehow not market rate for Taylor Hall, you're simply denying reality. Maybe, just maybe the Devils convince Hall to sign at 10.5M/8. That's the low end.

If you're point here is "Well, he's not nearly as good as McDavid, well, McDavid signed for 12.5M two years ago, well above what I predicted Hall would sign for.

Yeah and the prices go up every year for these guys. Also McDavid was a RFA if he was a UFA it would be really crazy money.

[SterioDesign]

So while it's easy to say from here... If Hall's position is REALLY that he wants a cup and that he doesnt have that much time left... yade yada... and that you've already made your money... then don't go for the absolute top contract you can get... that could potentially strap any team you're from being a better team and winning a cup. 

I'm not saying he should take a 7.5m contract. But if you push for 12 or wtv... that's not really putting your team in the best position to win.

[mfitz804]

7 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

So while it's easy to say from here... If Hall's position is REALLY that he wants a cup and that he doesnt have that much time left... yade yada... and that you've already made your money... then don't go for the absolute top contract you can get... that could potentially strap any team you're from being a better team and winning a cup. 

I'm not saying he should take a 7.5m contract. But if you push for 12 or wtv... that's not really putting your team in the best position to win.

I’ll say it again, all that does is open him up to teams with less cap space. 

[SterioDesign]

16 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I’ll say it again, all that does is open him up to teams with less cap space. 

well right now he cannot sign with another team...

and just take Parise... who now knows he'll never win a cup in Minny... and he knows his contract is too ridiculous for a contender to take him on... so he'll never win a cup. 

So to my point, you're not giving yourself the best chances of success if you're chasing top money and potentially become a bad asset or prevent your team from making extra moves

[vadvlfan]

8 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

well right now he cannot sign with another team...

and just take Parise... who now knows he'll never win a cup in Minny... and he knows his contract is too ridiculous for a contender to take him on... so he'll never win a cup. 

So to my point, you're not giving yourself the best chances of success if you're chasing top money and potentially become a bad asset or prevent your team from making extra moves

Well said SD.  All the better teams needing to win "now" aren't flush with Cap space, and won't be next year. Also, he always runs the risk of another injury, which will make any team think twice. His best shot at a good contract is in NJ.

[mfitz804]

8 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

well right now he cannot sign with another team...

Obviously, but that’s the choice he’s making; Devils now or another team next year. If he doesn’t sign with us this year, he will be traded. So this point is kind of irrelevant. 

4 minutes ago, vadvlfan said:

Well said SD.  All the better teams needing to win "now" aren't flush with Cap space, and won't be next year. 

That’s exactly my point, if he is looking for less money, then they can be less flush with cap space, or require less moves to add him. 

[Nicomo]

Well, it’s now September, and still not a peep yet...