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The Taylor Hall Watch Thread

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Daniel said:

It hasn't happened, so we don't know.  There was a time when teams thought you draft a big guy who sucks instead of a small guy who did nothing but produce because you can't teach size, or some such silly aphorism.

A specific player is either worth the money and the draft compensation or he is not.  I don't hear any actual defense of the claim that Marner isn't worth it, other than well you never know who those draft picks might be.  I could give you six consecutive first round draft picks we made and even Timo Meier is better than all of them put together. 

That's cause you ignored it.

I said Marner was on the Leafs. Who overall have a better roster than us... and it wasn't enough for them this year. Why would we be getting better results? 

If we make that move that means we'd stay with the same depth basically.. we dont have many assets for trades and we wouldnt be getting new assets to get better.

Edited by SterioDesign

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16 hours ago, Daniel said:

It's very simple.  Do you expect Mitch Marner to continue to be an elite player or not?  If the answer is yes, and you have the cap space to sign him and keep the players you want to keep, which you should if you know what you're doing, then he is worth four first round draft picks.  The only reason he isn't is if you think we'll have good odds at Alexis Lafreniere (who Marner may even be better than anyway) which means that you are even dumber for defending Shero's track record since he got here.

And it is not a high risk to gamble those picks at all if you know you are getting an elite player.  Yeah, Marner could tear up his knee in training camp and never be the same again.  Of course, there's just as much of a chance that those four picks turn into ho hum NHLers, which very much the case with Castron's four first round picks between 2013 and 2014. 

Your logic would work if we had a really good solid lineup and just missing one superstar. We're missing a lot more than that. And giving away those picks would go against building a good roster around our core. Team winning the cup have depth. Teams with 1-2 elite players and a bunch of average players like the Oilers doesnt win sh!t.

Dude you don't seem to understand how important 4 years of first rounder is worth. you lost your sh!t since we didnt land Trouba. What did it cost to land Trouba? a FIRST (20th) and a player. Our team with Marner and no upgrade on the D is still not a good team. And we have no assets on our roster to land guys like Trouba. 

We do not have enough assets to upgrade our team yet. 4 years of rebuilding is really not enough to recover from what Shero was given. That's the one think you really don't understnad. It's mindblowing that you think this team should be that much better after only 4 years. it's completely irrational

 

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1 minute ago, SterioDesign said:

Your logic would work if we had a really good solid lineup and just missing one superstar. We're missing a lot more than that. And giving away those picks would go against building a good roster around our core. Team winning the cup have depth. Teams with 1-2 elite players and a bunch of average players like the Oilers doesnt win sh!t.

Dude you don't seem to understand how important 4 years of first rounder is worth. you lost your sh!t since we didnt land Trouba. What did it cost to land Trouba? a FIRST (20th) and a player. Our team with Marner and no upgrade on the D is still not a good team. And we have no assets on our roster to land guys like Trouba. 

We do not have enough assets to upgrade our team yet. 4 years of rebuilding is really not enough to recover from what Shero was given. That's the one think you really don't understnad. It's mindblowing that you think this team should be that much better after only 4 years. it's completely irrational

 

I understand the value of first round picks perfectly fine, it's you who is acting like some poster on HF Boards that thinks every guy drafted in the first round is destined to be some kind of superstar. I would suggest you go and look at a typical draft year and see how many first rounders become really good NHL players.  It's not as many as you think.

And if you don't think this is a good enough team to compete and that those fourth rounders are absolutely necessary at the expense of a sure thing superstar like Marner, then the only conclusion to draw is that Shero has been an absolute failure.  But I dunno, maybe it's more constructive to go over what Lou should have done with Parise for the twenty millionth billionth time.

Now, you could make a case that it's better to keep those first rounders around because they can be used to obtain good NHL players at less of a price than spending them all on one really good player.  But unless you think we'll be drafting in the top five for the next four years, the odds say that most of them will turn out to be just pretty good players. 

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7 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Your logic would work if we had a really good solid lineup and just missing one superstar. We're missing a lot more than that. And giving away those picks would go against building a good roster around our core. Team winning the cup have depth. Teams with 1-2 elite players and a bunch of average players like the Oilers doesnt win sh!t.

Dude you don't seem to understand how important 4 years of first rounder is worth. you lost your sh!t since we didnt land Trouba. What did it cost to land Trouba? a FIRST (20th) and a player. Our team with Marner and no upgrade on the D is still not a good team. And we have no assets on our roster to land guys like Trouba. 

We do not have enough assets to upgrade our team yet. 4 years of rebuilding is really not enough to recover from what Shero was given. That's the one think you really don't understnad. It's mindblowing that you think this team should be that much better after only 4 years. it's completely irrational

 

Lou DECIMATED this team by the time he was through. No prospects in the AHL,  sh!tty draft picks, sh!tty free agent signings, and stupid NTC attached to overpaid, bloated contracts to average players (hello Clowe and Zajac). It's been 4 years since that stupidity and we're still not fully recovered. I dont care who the GM is, no one would do well with the mess Lou left behind. .

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4 minutes ago, Daniel said:

But unless you think we'll be drafting in the top five for the next four years, the odds say that most of them will turn out to be just pretty good players. 

 that's kind of my thinking. If you retain Hall, get Marner, draft Hughes, and maybe add one more guy, you shouldn't be finishing low enough to have a top 5 pick. 

If in fact they do feel 4 1sts is too much to give up, then offer him $10.5 AAV for 5-7 years and see if he signs. That would be 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, which I would definitely give up for him. 

 

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22 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

 that's kind of my thinking. If you retain Hall, get Marner, draft Hughes, and maybe add one more guy, you shouldn't be finishing low enough to have a top 5 pick. 

If in fact they do feel 4 1sts is too much to give up, then offer him $10.5 AAV for 5-7 years and see if he signs. That would be 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, which I would definitely give up for him.

I'd do that.

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The issue isn't that 1st rounders often become superstars, it's that when they're even just average players they provide a massive cap savings during their ELC and subsequent years before arbitration.  The Devils are not in a position to give up 4 1st round picks.

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12 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The issue isn't that 1st rounders often become superstars, it's that when they're even just average players they provide a massive cap savings during their ELC and subsequent years before arbitration.  The Devils are not in a position to give up 4 1st round picks.

The first part of what you said is true - there's big savings towards the cap from young players/draft picks when they're making peanuts the first three years of their ELCs.  The second part is not true though.  If anyone's in a position to give up picks that would sign for cheap in exchange for established players who might otherwise cost more, it's us.  I don't know how you could say otherwise.  We're #1/#2 in free cap space at the moment.  That's not even opinion or conjecture, it's fact.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, slasher72 said:

Lou DECIMATED this team by the time he was through. No prospects in the AHL,  sh!tty draft picks, sh!tty free agent signings, and stupid NTC attached to overpaid, bloated contracts to average players (hello Clowe and Zajac). It's been 4 years since that stupidity and we're still not fully recovered. I dont care who the GM is, no one would do well with the mess Lou left behind. .

Well EXACTLY. That some people still don't get that and have a ticking time bomb if we're not in the cup final within the 5th rebuilding year is simply insane. Those people simply don't look at the situation at all, they just want results

i said it before but anyone going through the timeline from 2016 to right now... and what was available at the time, woul see we didnt miss on much. Let's go through who was on the market every year so far for Shero. For a team who had a very bad and old roster

Shero had to start with this sh!t roster. and NOTHING in the pipeline. Boucher was the top prospect and to this day he's still not a regular in the NHL. Coleman is the only bright spot so far

Cammalleri - Henrique - Parenteau
Bennet - Zajac - Smith Pelley
Wood - Zacha - Blandisi 
Lappin - Josefson - Noesen

Greene - Severson
Moore - Lovejoy
Merril - Quincey

Schneider 
Kinkaid

So for the next 4 years... this was the market... Most of those players were not worth it first cause by the time we could build an actual decent roster.. they'd all be past their prime almost. it takes time. Then well no top free agent would sign with this sh!t roster, they all want to win if they are in their prime.

From this whole list there's only a few players i would have liked to sign... but they wanted to sign somewhere else. And so far it was the right move for them. It's really not on Shero. So the fact that he didn't throw insane money at JVR or Neal is a good thing cause that would hurt us i the future and wouldn't have been that much help until now anyway

2015
Green, 29
Vermette, 32
Ribeiro, 35
Beleskey, 28
Frolik, 27
Stafford, 29
Franson, 27

2016
Okposo 28
Backes 32
Lucic 28
Ladd 30
Eriksson 30
Staal, 31
Perron, 28
Vrbata, 35
Hudler, 32
Campbell, 37

2017
Shattenkirk, 28
Radulov, 30
Alzner, 28
Hanzal, 30
Williams, 35
Vrbata, 36
Marleau, 37
Jagr, 45
Boyle, 32
Gagner, 27
Bonino, 29

2018
Tavares, 27
Van Riemsdyk, 29
Stastny, 32
Green, 32
Neal, 30
Perron, 30
Bozak, 32
Maroon, 30
Grabner, 30
Vanek, 34
De Haan, 27
Filpula, 34
Cole, 29
Smith-Pelley, 26
 

As for trades... the Skinner trade and the Trouba trades are the only ones that i wish we could have done but anyone with common sense would know that there's a lot happening behind closed doors. Again, there's 30 teams against you. Some think if something is available that you can really get it if you want to lol it's really not that simple

And it's like we keep forgetting that SOMEHOW we made the playoffs in year 3.. 3 years after that terrible roster... it deserves major credits for that and way ahead of the plan. And its the only time Shero went off his plan to get Maroon and Grabner... im okay with it. But in reality we simply lost those assets so for our future it would have been better off to stay away and continue the rebuilding plan but wtv

 

 

Edited by SterioDesign

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11 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

And it's like we keep forgetting that SOMEHOW we made the playoffs in year 3.. 3 years after that terrible roster... it deserves major credits for that and way ahead of the plan.

"Somehow" was Taylor Hall having an MVP year. Without that, we'd not only have missed the playoffs, we'd have been eliminated in January. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Triumph said:

The issue isn't that 1st rounders often become superstars, it's that when they're even just average players they provide a massive cap savings during their ELC and subsequent years before arbitration.  The Devils are not in a position to give up 4 1st round picks.

Yes they are, especially if they don't trade away all of the second round picks they have this year.

You don't win with cap savings.  You win by having impact players.

Edited by Daniel

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Oh good we're talking about Lou again. 

Between the SD Lou rants and the Daniel Shero rants, this will be quite a summer. I've seen the 2015 roster on here more than the 2019 one. 

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2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

 that's kind of my thinking. If you retain Hall, get Marner, draft Hughes, and maybe add one more guy, you shouldn't be finishing low enough to have a top 5 pick. 

If in fact they do feel 4 1sts is too much to give up, then offer him $10.5 AAV for 5-7 years and see if he signs. That would be 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, which I would definitely give up for him. 

 

id be all about this as well, with an offer sheet like this can you inflate it with signing bonuses etc to make it more attractive? 

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2 hours ago, Triumph said:

The issue isn't that 1st rounders often become superstars, it's that when they're even just average players they provide a massive cap savings during their ELC and subsequent years before arbitration.  The Devils are not in a position to give up 4 1st round picks.

Good to see you back Tri - stick around.

Those fools on HFboards aren't worth your energy :lol: 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

Oh good we're talking about Lou again. 

Between the SD Lou rants and the Daniel Shero rants, this will be quite a summer. I've seen the 2015 roster on here more than the 2019 one. 

i dont post the 2015 roster because of Lou. I post it to give a context of what the rebuilt started with. It's absolutely bonkers to expect that in 4 years we'd be competitive again. Wouldn't you agree?

If anything i think we're quite ahead of a normal curve of rebuilding a team from what we had. But that's not even enough for some fans. It's incredible.

Edited by SterioDesign

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2 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

If anything i think we're quite ahead of a normal curve of rebuilding a team from what we had. But that's not even enough for some fans. It's incredible.

This fanbase has never had to go through a true rebuild. We were spoiled for two decades. Spoiled people tend to act like children when they don’t get what they want immediately.

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2 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

This fanbase has never had to go through a true rebuild. We were spoiled for two decades. Spoiled people tend to act like children when they don’t get what they want immediately.

well yeah i think we talked about that the other day or maybe it was someone else but you're 200% right. The only thing is that it's possible to KNOW and UNDERSTAND that you're spoiled and that your expectations are ridiculous. So that you have to adjust to reality.

Some fans clearly can't. I don't think i'm better or smarter than anyone but last season i went in knowing we overachieved big time to make the playoffs and i fully assumed we'd miss them last year. So i was never frustrated with losing cause i expected it and i know the rebuild will take some time cause we started with almost nothing an it takes a long time to stock prospects and build a good NHL roster. And the worst thing is... there's no guarantee that we even make it to be contenders again. Many many things need to go right for that to happen.

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22 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

i dont post the 2015 roster because of Lou. I post it to give a context of what the rebuilt started with. It's absolutely bonkers to expect that in 4 years we'd be competitive again. Wouldn't you agree?

If anything i think we're quite ahead of a normal curve of rebuilding a team from what we had. But that's not even enough for some fans. It's incredible.

I absolutely agree that you can't rebuild this team in 4 years. It takes time and luck and good decisions, which I trust Shero to make. 

I think we're about where we should be for sure, but I also think this off-season it is imperative for Shero to take another step in this rebuild. I think the people panicking are absolutely jumping the gun, but I see where their fear is coming from. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

I absolutely agree that you can't rebuild this team in 4 years. It takes time and luck and good decisions, which I trust Shero to make. 

I think we're about where we should be for sure, but I also think this off-season it is imperative for Shero to take another step in this rebuild. I think the people panicking are absolutely jumping the gun, but I see where their fear is coming from. 

it's true that a big summer would help tremendously but i won't be jumping on the fire Shero train if we don't. Why? Cause i understand that with the asset we have that there's only so much he can TRY to do.

To trade someone you need a trading partner. And with our assets other teams are in better positions than us. It takes so much luck, timing, patience and a good plan.

It's like going to the club 4 weekends in a row and expecting to find the woman you will marry there... and on the 4th weekend your friends are pressuring you that you NEED to find the woman you will marry. I mean... lol its ridiculous... maybe there's no fit... maybe the ones you like are not interested in you... maybe she was sick that day... maybe the one you think is cute and bring home is a maniac and not a long term fit... There's really no way to guarantee anything. The best you can do is put yourself in the best position for it to happen

With the cap no going as high as possible that may be a big help for Shero though. The market doesn't have anything that could help us outside of Panarin. And we dont have much assets to trade so hopfully he can pull off something

Edited by SterioDesign

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4 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

The market doesn't have anything that could help us outside of Panarin.

Could that be true? Following a season where we had AHL players in half our lineup spots, there are NO free agents other than Panarin that could help?

That seems unlikely. 

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I just read a list of the top 25 available free agents and damn, it is true, we don’t need any of those guys aside from Panarin. I would probably take Myers or Gardiner too, we still need D. 

But if we are going to improve, we’re gonna need to draft or trade for that help. 

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2 hours ago, Daniel said:

Yes they are, especially if they don't trade away all of the second round picks they have this year.

You don't win with cap savings.  You win by having impact players.

You win by having the best team and the way to have the best team is to get the most value out of the limited resource (cap space) that you have.  Marner, Hall, Hischier, Bratt, and Hughes will cost $45-50M at least in 2023.  That leaves around $40-45M for the other 16 players.  That's not a lot of space at all.  I mean, that team probably competes for the Cup at some point, but it's a very short window.

1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Good to see you back Tri - stick around.

Those fools on HFboards aren't worth your energy :lol: 

Eh, nothing's happened in Devils land since they got 1st overall, so not a whole lot to discuss but the same arguments.  But thanks - I think I will be spending more time here in the next few weeks.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I just read a list of the top 25 available free agents and damn, it is true, we don’t need any of those guys aside from Panarin. I would probably take Myers or Gardiner too, we still need D. 

But if we are going to improve, we’re gonna need to draft or trade for that help. 

Well i guess it depends... we're not going to be contenders this year... with that in mind do you really wanna throw 7 years at 7m for myers or gardiner? Like you don't buy an expensive tuxedo to go get milk to your wife at the corner store... simply not worth it and that those contracts gives us cap problem when we "could" be legit contenders and then really need to use our cap when nico, hughes, smith, bratt are due for raises and that those guys sucks by then. That's really something to keep in mind. 

Wanting to just sign guys to sign guys is just a panic move and nothing else. Unless they fit the long-term plan and that the price is right i'd stay away from it.

I'd also rather give a shot to Boqvist than signing an expensive free agent that may impact us negatively in 3-4 years because of a dumb contract.

Building a contender is really a marathon, not a race.

Edited by SterioDesign

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Posted (edited)

I understand the serious salary ramifications that are only (in this dream) 3 years away, but I would be very interested to see if anyone, the Devils especially, could pry Marner from the Leafs for less than the 4 first rounders, ie, about 10 million AAV.  Currently I think Tor only has about 7.5 in cap space so they'd have to get creative. It most certainly does not fix the defensive situation either, but having Hall, Hischier, Marner, and Bratt, Hughes, Palmieri is appealing.

I also understand Daniel's argument about elite talent trumping "flexibility", but giving up 4 first rounders is a disaster.  The cupboard is just barely being restocked as is.

Edited by NLinfante

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