2019 Offseason Thread

[jagknife]

3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

You’re making a leap insinuating that there’s a possibility Nico and Ty Smith are signing for 10+ around the corner, and I don’t think it’s worth sitting out the Marner sweeps on that off chance.

I’d also agree that if you plan on giving up 4 1st’s; it absolutely cannot be for a 3 year deal. 

What he said.

5 or more or no dice, IMO

[jagknife]

15 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

You're not paying 11M for him though. You're paying 11M and 4 firsts. Actually to get the Leafs to let him walk you probably need 12. So that's 12M for seven years, four years worth of first round draft picks (which often equate to cheap roster players for three years), and the Devils probably can't make any more big moves for awhile (with Hall re-signed). And you're doing all that based on what he's done in the league so far? 

If I think this team is one big piece away from being contenders, and I also believe Marner's game will not fall off the face of the Earth, yes, I'd take that gamble of losing 4 first that'll end up in the 20s or higher.

We celebrated late picks this season, 3-4 years down the road, those players should be ready to be the cheap pieces to the roster. As would the guys from previous drafts.

We're not talking about a player in his mid-late 20s, we're talking about a 22 year old winger who has already proven he can play and produce in arguably the toughest hockey market in the league.

Edited July 6, 2019 by jagknife

[MadDog2020]

7 minutes ago, HellOnICE said:

I just don't see point in offering 4 first rounders for any one player.

The only slam dunk is McDavid.

[Muevelos]

Marner is a luxury not a necessity. He isn't the key between making the playoffs to winning it all. He's apart of the important chain, while like Panarin, they may be great, they're still smallish wingers who don't change the dynamic of the team that much to offer 4 1st round picks and an insane salary. 

[Neb00rs]

2 hours ago, MB3 said:

I would offersheet Marner in ten seconds at 12.5.

i think you guys are dramatically overestimating the damages of overpaying a player 1 or 2 million dollars. The devils are not a cap team. The devils haven’t been a cap team in years. The devils have stupid contracts for older players expiring between now and the time Hughes has to re-sign. 

This is such a bad way to go about putting a team together. "Contracts are going off the books, we'll be fine guys, let's just sign Marner at 12.5M, whatever." I've stated on here before that the Devils can handle another big signing - like you say, they'll be able to correct for cap space as contracts come off the books (part of that is because, unlike Toronto, we're not locked into a bunch of  big long-term deals). But that doesn't mean you offer sheet Marner. First off, you have to replace the contracts you lose. You don't hope to replace Andy Greene's contract with a nobody, you want to replace it with a d-man that's actually worth 5M. Contracts coming off the books isn't all net space, but it is possibly some net space. One thing that helps in gaining cap space with lots of good players on your team is first round draft picks. They can come into the lineup and play for peanuts for three years. You're giving four years of those away by signing Marner. And by the way, Marner's 12.5M will probably be a significant albatross on the cap for the entirety of the contract - especially when [hopefully if they earn it], Jack Hughes is making 14M-15M a year. Nico,Ty Smith,  and even Blackwood could pan out as well and be on big deals. And Hall's cap hit is bound to double very soon. So, does that mean you don't make a move to get a star winger? No. But you need to be cautious and giving Marner an offer sheet in "ten seconds" is exactly the way you're likely to find yourself asking how we ended up in such financial straits a few years from now. 

Again, an offer sheet can be worth it, but Mitch Marner doesn't warrant what it would take. Few players warrant that highest level of offer sheet compensation. Marner also has a goal-scoring center right now that just happens to vibe perfectly with him. His value is likely boosted. But that's not entirely fair - maybe he's even better than 94 points. In any case it's too early to tell and thus, a highest-level offer sheet is not a great risk.

I do like the idea of offer sheets, and there should be more, but at the 8.12M level and below based on the compensation required and the percentage that 8.12M is of the cap right now.

1 hour ago, MB3 said:

It just confuses me that people say “I’m fine with Marner at 11 but OH MY GOD 12.5 HANG UP THE PHONE AND KILL YOURSELF SHERO WOW”

What in the hell are you doing with that extra 1.5? We’re eeking above the salary FLOOR right now ya dinguses!

The Devils will be well past the cap floor this season. If they make another big trade/signing, they'll probably be a few million away from the ceiling by the time the season starts.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Neb00rs

[Nicomo]

40 minutes ago, MB3 said:

If you add Marner to this Devils team it’s safe to say they won’t be in the lottery for quite a while. 

Dont overestimate the value of a mid-late 1st round pick. Prior to Nico, I don’t think there’s a single collection of 4 consecutive players I wouldn’t trade for a 96-point scoring 22 year old. You’d probably have to go all the way back to Parise to even think about it.

Agreed. Even Ty Smith would have to turn out to be really special to say he wouldn’t be worth giving up for a player like Marner. 

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, MB3 said:

You’re making a leap insinuating that there’s a possibility Nico and Ty Smith are signing for 10+ around the corner, and I don’t think it’s worth sitting out the Marner sweeps on that off chance.

I’d also agree that if you plan on giving up 4 1st’s; it absolutely cannot be for a 3 year deal. 

A 3 year deal would be better since he’s still under team control when that contract ends, so you can more easily trade him if necessary. 

[NJDevils1214]

I'm still not sure I am sold on Marner fitting here. He did well with JT, but JT is a finisher and Marner was his setup guy. Nico is a great playmaker, Hughes should also be a great playmaking center, and Hall kind of does it all, but doesn't it make more sense to add someone who can just score tons of goals, like Gusev should be able to, than another A level playmaker? He only had 26 goals out of his 94pts. That doesn't mean to say he can't score more if the style was changed but again, wouldn't it make more sense to get a proven goal scorer?

Edited July 6, 2019 by NJDevils1214

[mfitz804]

1 hour ago, Neb00rs said:

If they make another big trade/signing, they'll probably be a few million away from the ceiling by the time the season starts.

We could only dream. 

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

1 hour ago, HellOnICE said:

I just don't see point in offering 4 first rounders for any one player.

McDavid would probably be the only player I would blow that on. 

[titans04]

1 hour ago, CarterforPresident said:

Marner is a luxury not a necessity. He isn't the key between making the playoffs to winning it all. He's apart of the important chain, while like Panarin, they may be great, they're still smallish wingers who don't change the dynamic of the team that much to offer 4 1st round picks and an insane salary. 

A little confused are we so good that a player like Marner is just a "luxury".  A huge talent gets you closer to a cup, a handful of huge talents gets you in serious contention.  If we're concerned about smallish wingers we're as good as fvcked already so what's one more who imo is more talented than almost if not all of them at this point in their careers. 

4 first is a concern but as the current talent grows the value of those lower first should become less. 

I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means but I would be happy to see him here. Does he even consider coming here is another unknown.

Back to Panarin again for me - IF he would of signed here he would of been a game changer but now he's small and small guys don't make a difference.  Still not buying it.

[njbuff]

47 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

Agreed. Even Ty Smith would have to turn out to be really special to say he wouldn’t be worth giving up for a player like Marner. 

The Devils really can't afford to give up Smith in any type of trade.

Smith is the only Dman in the system ready for the jump.

[mfitz804]

15 minutes ago, NJDevils1214 said:

I'm still not sure I am sold on Marner fitting here. He did well with JT, but JT is a finisher and Marner was his setup guy. Nico is a great playmaker, Hughes should also be a great playmaking center, and Hall kind of does it all, but doesn't it make more sense to add someone who can just score tons of goals, like Gusev should be able to, than another A level playmaker? He only had 26 goals out of his 94pts. That doesn't mean to say he can't score more if the style was changed but again, wouldn't it make more sense to get a proven goal scorer?

I would’ve hated having a 26g, 96p guy. Too many assists!!!

[Nicomo]

15 minutes ago, njbuff said:

The Devils really can't afford to give up Smith in any type of trade.

Smith is the only Dman in the system ready for the jump.

It obviously wouldn’t literally involve Smith, that pick has already been made. 

Point was giving up 4 mid round 1st (if Marner helped drastically improve the team) is not the end of the world. 

[jagknife]

16 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I would’ve hated having a 26g, 96p guy. Too many assists!!!

He also led the team with 69 points a year ago without JT or Matthews for a quarter of a year, but hey, our roster is full of guys that easily pot that...

[NJDevils1214]

How am I saying that I would either dislike him being here or that our roster doesn't need him by asking if it makes more sense to get a player that is a pure goal scorer, esp for the price to get him? You guys take my post and boil it down to some base level and mock it like I am saying something I'm not. He obviously makes the team better, but are there more cost effective options that might fit better? Christ.

[Aitchmack]

1 hour ago, NJDevils1214 said:

I'm still not sure I am sold on Marner fitting here. He did well with JT, but JT is a finisher and Marner was his setup guy. Nico is a great playmaker, Hughes should also be a great playmaking center, and Hall kind of does it all, but doesn't it make more sense to add someone who can just score tons of goals, like Gusev should be able to, than another A level playmaker? He only had 26 goals out of his 94pts. That doesn't mean to say he can't score more if the style was changed but again, wouldn't it make more sense to get a proven goal scorer?

While I definitely wouldn't want to give up four first round picks for Marner out of the 82 points Gusev scored last season only 17 were goals. From what I read he's more of a playmaker than an out an out goal scorer. The risk/reward is far more on the Devils side with Gusev than Marner though.

[jagknife]

49 minutes ago, NJDevils1214 said:

How am I saying that I would either dislike him being here or that our roster doesn't need him by asking if it makes more sense to get a player that is a pure goal scorer, esp for the price to get him? You guys take my post and boil it down to some base level and mock it like I am saying something I'm not. He obviously makes the team better, but are there more cost effective options that might fit better? Christ.

Because there isn’t a pure goal scorer out there. Marner is out there. 

No, Ray doesn’t need to burn the cash in hand he has right now, but a shot at Marner keeps showing Hall you’re not satisfied with just Hughes, P.K. and Simmonds.

You go for a guy like Marner to package with Hughes and Nico and say “we have these pieces, wanna be fed by them?” so maybe you turn a 15-20 goal guy down the road into a 25-30 goal guy. A Palmeri-esq scenario where you can get a guy on a deal and watch him grow into a solid asset.

And dude, come on, we’ve all been “mocked” for significantly less. If this really got to you...

[Nicomo]

1 hour ago, NJDevils1214 said:

How am I saying that I would either dislike him being here or that our roster doesn't need him by asking if it makes more sense to get a player that is a pure goal scorer, esp for the price to get him? You guys take my post and boil it down to some base level and mock it like I am saying something I'm not. He obviously makes the team better, but are there more cost effective options that might fit better? Christ.

How many pure goal scorers would you say there are in the NHL? Ovi, Laine, Stamkos...

Palms is a pure goal scorer, but he’s only going to give you about 50 points a season. I’ll take a guy that can put up 90+ any day, even if it’s 25G 65A. 

[titans04]

5 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Again, this is a new phenomenon on NJDevs and it’s making me rip my hair out. Instead of listing a target player, they list this pie in the sky target player ~profile~. 

Why go get a 22 year old 96 point scorer when we can just get A PURE SNIPER. Why go after Subban when we could have traded for AN ALL STAR DEFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN. 

if you want to argue “let’s get Laine instead of Marner”, fvckin rights! Let’s have a discussion. But if you constantly say stuff like “why get Marner for 12 million when you can have a goal scorer for 6 million and a defenseman for 6 million” without even mentioning a name, your argument is sh!t and you should feel bad.

Fantasy hockey at it's finest.  If it were only that easy. 

[NJDevils1214]

1 hour ago, jagknife said:

Because there isn’t a pure goal scorer out there. Marner is out there. 

No, Ray doesn’t need to burn the cash in hand he has right now, but a shot at Marner keeps showing Hall you’re not satisfied with just Hughes, P.K. and Simmonds.

You go for a guy like Marner to package with Hughes and Nico and say “we have these pieces, wanna be fed by them?” so maybe you turn a 15-20 goal guy down the road into a 25-30 goal guy. A Palmeri-esq scenario where you can get a guy on a deal and watch him grow into a solid asset.

And dude, come on, we’ve all been “mocked” for significantly less. If this really got to you...

Yea it really got to me. BLOCKED. Feel free to mock me, but do it while using my actual argument-- Not taking gratuitous snippets of the entire comment.

By all accounts Gusev is out there, and he won't cost 4 first round picks or 12.5m a year. Gusev isn't a Marner and I used Gusev's name in my comment, so MB83s argument that I am expecting Connor McDavid by saying "pure sniper" also isn't accurate. 

[NJDevils1214]

7 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Who said anything about McDavid? Lmao, what.

i also want Gusev. I’ve been vocal about that. But he isn’t in the same stratosphere as Marner. 

By "pie in the sky" player I thought you mean't that by using a blanket term player I am expecting something unattainable and that is why I am not using a specific name. Maybe my mistake on the interpretation. I do use a specific name in my comment so it isn't like I am pulling something out of thing air. If you are making the "why not both" argument then I understand. I'd feel better adding Gusev and retaining the firsts to use at the deadline assuming the team is playoff bound.

[Neb00rs]

54 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I find it so weird when people add these bizarrely arbitrary players to bolster their argument. Who’s a defenseman worth 5m that we’re using to replace Greene? Because if they’re worth 5m and they’re open-market, they’ll get 7 or 8. If Ty Smith and Will butcher don’t turn into first and second pairing defenseman respectively, we’re fvcked regardless. 

Secondly, the whole “Oh no what will happen when Jack Hughes is worth 15m” (fvcking 15m?!) four years from now? Who gives a sh!t; sounds like we got lucky as hell. The cap made a monster leap after the league previously added a team. No reason to expect it won’t again. I’m confused what you see in Blackwood that makes you actually say “eh let’s not overpay Mitch; we might have to pay MacKenzie fvcking Blackwood”. But I guess everyone has their pets.

Lastly, you concluded your argument again with this; “if they make another big trade/signing, they’ll be within a few million of the cap ceiling.” Again, this whole mystery man schtick is ridiculous. Who is this trade or signing? And why is he worth 9m (to get close to the cap like you said) when Marner isn’t worth 12? 

When the Devils were steady making the playoffs, look who our first round picks were. The odds of finding 4 players in the 20s at the draft who COMBINE to be the kind of guy Mitch Marner already is (at an age that already complements our young core) is slim to none. 

Your first point about 5M d-men only bolsters my point so I'll agree and move on.

To your second point, I don't necessarily see anything in Blackwood specifically, but you can bet that if he pans out he'll be worth millions more. That's not difficult to understand. A lot of young players on our roster will be due for raises, some big raises. Again, this doesn't mean you can't make moves, but you can't carelessly commit big money to players based on the idea "who gives a sh!t about the future." This is exactly why teams get into trouble. As the cap increases and as new TV deals come around, player contracts go up as well. If Marner was an FA it'd be one thing to try and work out a deal with him. Losing four firsts only increases the risk of cap trouble as you miss out on players that can fill roster roles for cheap. Top dollar offer sheets have to bring in a gamechanging player to be worth it. 

To your quest about the "big trade/signing," let me rephrase because you clearly are not paying attention to our cap space. We are already over the floor. After our RFAs and Hughes are signed, we will have about 10M cap space. If we then trade for a winger, say Gusev, that would leave us somewhere 5-6M below the cap. We're going to be far above the floor. I wasn't really making a bold statement there, it's math. Even if we stay where we are we'll be well above the floor.

To your last point, 95% of draft picks will turn out to be worth nothing, you're right. First round picks are a bit better though. Top 15 and above is likely to turn into a roster player. And it shouldn't have to be said, but just because drafting is a game of chance, doesn't mean you just give your picks away easily for a star player. If that was a smart idea, teams would part with their first more often, but they don't. At most, they usually are only willing to give up one first at a time. This isn't the NBA where 5 players makeup a lineup for most of the game and bringing in two star players can turn your team from nothing to champion. NHL teams need those young roster players to play for 925K for a few years so they can pay their veterans.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Neb00rs

[SterioDesign]

ive been going back and forth in my head about a Marner offer sheet... what i know is that.. you can never have too many assets. If you give up 4 first rounders for Marner... and if that down the road you can't sign some players because of the cap... well you can flip some assets for picks and restock. I really trust the current management to handle this the right way. 

[Muevelos]

3 hours ago, titans04 said:

A little confused are we so good that a player like Marner is just a "luxury".  A huge talent gets you closer to a cup, a handful of huge talents gets you in serious contention.  If we're concerned about smallish wingers we're as good as fvcked already so what's one more who imo is more talented than almost if not all of them at this point in their careers. 

4 first is a concern but as the current talent grows the value of those lower first should become less. 

I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means but I would be happy to see him here. Does he even consider coming here is another unknown.

Back to Panarin again for me - IF he would of signed here he would of been a game changer but now he's small and small guys don't make a difference.  Still not buying it.

My point is he isn't the difference between a cup and a playoff birth. Toronto makes the playoffs without him and with him, while really great, they aren't Matthews Mcdavid, Crosby where you build your entire foundation around them. They are foundational pieces that get you closer and better YES but not the difference between winning it all and not. We also see time and time again where teams trade their best or one of their best players and get better afterwards. Toronto might experience this as well.