2019 Offseason Thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

11 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I guess I have to agree with that, since I think technically, we are closer to small market than big market at the moment. 

I don't agree with the bolded.  I think Shero knows that if he re-signs Hall (I still think that happens) and most of the kids play up to what we hope, that this team will see that seemingly endless cap space get eaten up in a hurry.  We already know which "cheap" labor guys will be getting nice raises after this year. 

Basically when I think small market, I think of a team that either doesn't have the money to spend, or has more of it than people believe, but they choose not to spend.  I think the Devils could spend to the cap if they really wanted to and I don't think ownership would have an issue with that (they let Lou run amok with plenty of costly signings at the end), but Shero is trying to be smart about building a sustainable winner while avoiding getting into premature cap trouble for as long as he can.  He's doing his best to try to have money to be able to pay the youngins (and possibility be able to pay guys like Palms, who clearly will be making more than he's making now when he signs his next deal) and still have some left over to go UFA, if some guys don't work out.  I'm fine with him trying to hang onto this flexibility for as long as possible. 

4 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

We did the same when we acquired Marc Savard if I remember correctly. 

Also the NHL is very selective about what they consider circumvention. 

They have been when it comes to the Devils, heh heh.   

[mfitz804]

10 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I don't agree with the bolded.  I think Shero knows that if he re-signs Hall (I still think that happens) and most of the kids play up to what we hope, that this team will see that seemingly endless cap space get eaten up in a hurry.  We already know which "cheap" labor guys will be getting nice raises after this year. 

I'm talking more about the amount of revenue generated. If NYR, MTL and TOR are the large market teams, based on what we generate, we're small market. Or at least closer to small than large. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by mfitz804

[Triumph]

13 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Only if you use those stupid stats I really don't understand. I mean, if I am reading some of those stats right, Kevin fvcking Rooney is 3rd and 5th in the NHL in those categories. If that doesn't show those stats to be unworthy of consideration, I don't know what does. 

I enjoyed the quote "Yes, even Zacha was creating a relatively high level of offense in shorthanded situations.".

He had 2 goals and 1 assist short handed. That's not a "relatively high level of offense".

If you go by stuff like "goals", "assists", and "living up to your potential as a 6th overall pick", he still sucks. 

 

Among the 185 forwards who spent 50 or more minutes killing penalties last season, Zacha ranked 41st in points/60 minutes.  That is precisely 'a relatively high level of offense'.  He was 17th in shots/60, so that's even more potential offense.  You don't even need GAR or RAPM to tell you that 3 shorthanded points is kind of a lot.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Just now, mfitz804 said:

I'm talking more about the amount of revenue generated. If NYR, MTL and TOR are the large market teams, based on what we generate, we're small market. Or at least closer to small than large. 

Gotchya.  How do our ticket prices compare with other teams'?  Not sure how expensive the Devils are compared to other franchises.  I was actually pleasantly surprised at how many bodies that I often saw in the building, given the on-ice performance. 

[mfitz804]

2 minutes ago, Triumph said:

Among the 185 forwards who spent 50 or more minutes killing penalties last season, Zacha ranked 41st in points/60 minutes.  That is precisely 'a relatively high level of offense'.  He was 17th in shots/60, so that's even more potential offense.  You don't even need GAR or RAPM to tell you that 3 shorthanded points is kind of a lot.

He had three points, the league leader had 9. A few dozen guys had equal or better scoring stats than Zacha short handed. If you consider that a "relatively high level of offense", then I guess you're right. I don't. 

 

[mfitz804]

1 minute ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Gotchya.  How do our ticket prices compare with other teams'?  Not sure how expensive the Devils are compared to other franchises.  I was actually pleasantly surprised at how many bodies that I often saw in the building, given the on-ice performance. 

Not sure. But if its lower than the rest, that argues in favor of being small market. If it's average to higher, then it still argues toward small market because our revenue should have been average to higher. 

Consider that the NYR brought in $253m and the Devils brought in $166m. I couldn't argue that both teams are "big market" with those numbers. 

[Triumph]

1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

He had three points, the league leader had 9. A few dozen guys had equal or better scoring stats than Zacha short handed. If you consider that a "relatively high level of offense", then I guess you're right. I don't. 

 

I'm sure you knew that the league leader had 9 before you started spouting off about what is and isn't a relatively high level of offense.  3 points shorthanded in a season is a lot.  It's above the 50th percentile for sure - in points/60, it's just short of the 80th percentile.  Which is ... relatively high.  It's more than 75% of the forwards who killed penalties.  Relatively high.  

[mfitz804]

2 minutes ago, Triumph said:

I'm sure you knew that the league leader had 9 before you started spouting off about what is and isn't a relatively high level of offense.  3 points shorthanded in a season is a lot.  It's above the 50th percentile for sure - in points/60, it's just short of the 80th percentile.  Which is ... relatively high.  It's more than 75% of the forwards who killed penalties.  Relatively high.  

I did, I looked it up. 

Above the 50th percentile is not “relatively high”. 

In any event, if you are excited by a guy having 3 short handed points, I’m happy for you. 

[pumpkin cutter]

Mueller is trending #1 on twitter. We got a good player guys.

[Triumph]

7 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I did, I looked it up. 

Above the 50th percentile is not “relatively high”. 

In any event, if you are excited by a guy having 3 short handed points, I’m happy for you. 

Above the 75th percentile, which is where Zacha was last season, is relatively high, but that was a fun goalpost switch.  I mean, I know it's something I said, but then I also clarified.  This discussion started with you taking issue with the article posted and claiming that 'goals' and 'assists' means he sucks.  Well, when it comes to being short-handed, he doesn't suck at that.

Zacha is an excellent penalty killer both offensively and defensively.  I'd bet on him having 3 or more points short handed if he gets the same amount of PK time next season.  Offense on the PK being what it is - largely controlled by randomness - it's hard to expect much more.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Triumph

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

On a different topic, I am very open to trading Vatanen. Given plethora of PP capable defensmen, Vatanen at 5 on 5 isn't worth much more than Carrick at 5 on 5 IMO, if at all. Carrick is quite good at creating offense. Subban will replace his minutes short handed. This is an opportunity to get some value for a guy who likely won't be back. I also wouldn't mind signing a PK specialist incase that is an area of concern after a month.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jas0nMacIsaac

[mfitz804]

11 minutes ago, Triumph said:

Above the 75th percentile, which is where Zacha was last season, is relatively high, but that was a fun goalpost switch.  I mean, I know it's something I said, but then I also clarified. 

Right, the statistic that didn't help your argument, so you picked a better one. I understand. It's like how you ignored the argument about Kevin Rooney being 3rd and 5th in the league in some of those categories. Or is he an elite player as well?

12 minutes ago, Triumph said:

This discussion started with you taking issue with the article posted and claiming that 'goals' and 'assists' means he sucks.  Well, when it comes to being short-handed, he doesn't suck at that.

That was my point. If you go by actual production, he sucks. If you want to isolate his PK work, he's fine. I agree, I could have stated it better. Am I excited about a guy who scores 3 points shorthanded but sucks the rest of the time? Not so much. 

[mfitz804]

5 minutes ago, Jas0nMacIsaac said:

On a different topic, I am very open to trading Vatanen. Given plethora of PP capable defensmen, Vatanen at 5 on 5 isn't worth much more than Carrick at 5 on 5 IMO, if at all. Carrick is quite good at creating offense. Subban will replace his minutes short handed. This is an opportunity to get some value for a guy who likely won't be back.

Can't say I disagree with this. The odds of re-signing Vatanen are probably fairly low given that he'll be asking for a ton of money and the fact that he probably doesn't love being in New Jersey. We should get something good for him. 

[mfitz804]

3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

It only took seven months of mfitz hating Pavel Zacha more than he deserved to get Triumph out of hiding. 

Stick around tri. 

 

[Devil Dan 56]

1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

 

They have been when it comes to the Devils, heh heh.   

Kovy contract, while technically legal, was not within the spirit of CBA. 

Chicago "loaning" Huet and his terrible contract to a European team, totally cool guys!

[mfitz804]

3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I'm fine moving Vatanen if we get another free agent defenseman, but I'm not as down on him as most are. 

He was pretty clearly the best defenseman on the team in 2017/2018, and he dealt with some injuries and had a tough season last year. I also don't know why it's assumed he'll be "asking for a ton of money" and I'm not quite sure why you think he "doesn't like being in NJ"... that seems like conjecture at best, and pull-out-of-your-assery at worst. 

I don't think his trade value is so high right now that he'd be worth anything to write home about. Maybe a second round pick? I'd rather take my chances that he bounces back, plays point on the second PP unit, and we can cross that rental discussion either next offseason or if we're out of a playoff spot come trade deadline. 

Oh I definitely wouldn't be looking to move him without a replacement. Not until the trade deadline, anyway. 

I think the way the free agent market has been, he'll be looking for a significant pay upgrade. He may even be worth it, he may not. I don't know. 

He probably doesn't love being in New Jersey because most of the players that weren't cultivated here and didn't come here by choice seem to not. Of course it's conjecture, he didn't tell me that he doesn't like it. But you're right, maybe he loves it and wants to stay forever. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by mfitz804

[mfitz804]

3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I just can't understand what you're referencing. It feels like players leaving the Devils is way more random than "players who weren't cultivated here." I just don't think that's a point you should use to bolster your argument. 

In my opinion, if you weren't drafted by a team, and you didn't sign with that team as a free agent, its more likely that you'd want to go elsewhere once your contract is up.

Again, I am not saying its a fact, and it IS in fact, by definition, conjecture.  

I'm saying that it makes sense if you arrived via a trade and didn't choose to come here, you might not want to stay once your contract is up. Similar to what we just had happen with Pat Maroon, who granted, was not here as long as Vatanen will have been. Hopefully we are not seeing that with your boyfriend. 

Conversely, if you DID choose to come here, or you were drafted here and spent the first 7-8 years of your career here, got yourself established, etc., you might be more inclined to stay. 

Add to that the fact that the team hasn't been competitive, although certainly our direction has improved for the better, I'm not sure if it will be enough by the end of this year to make a guy say "THAT is the best chance I have to win".

It's not even a New Jersey thing, it probably applies anywhere. 

 

[NJDfan1711]

30 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I'm fine moving Vatanen if we get another free agent defenseman, but I'm not as down on him as most are. 

He was pretty clearly the best defenseman on the team in 2017/2018, and he dealt with some injuries and had a tough season last year. I also don't know why it's assumed he'll be "asking for a ton of money" and I'm not quite sure why you think he "doesn't like being in NJ"... that seems like conjecture at best, and pull-out-of-your-assery at worst. 

I don't think his trade value is so high right now that he'd be worth anything to write home about. Maybe a second round pick? I'd rather take my chances that he bounces back, plays point on the second PP unit, and we can cross that rental discussion either next offseason or if we're out of a playoff spot come trade deadline. 

I agree with all of this.  I'm not against trading Vatanen if we can get something of equal or greater value, but he's hardly a player I look at as a guy that should be traded, or that his value will go down a lot in the near future.  To that point, I don't think his value is all that high right now either, at least not to the extent that teams are highly coveting him or that we'd be able to pull off some heist and come out a clear winner in a trade.  As noted, the guy was pretty much still out best defenseman last year, despite having some injuries, and he's still good on the PP - you can never have too many blueliners who are capable of playing on the PP.  Also, while he may not be the best shut down defenseman out there, I don't see him as any sort of real liability in his own zone, so there's that.

[DJ Eco]

I like Vatanen a lot. I think good teams have a couple dependable d-men like Vatanen that can eat big minutes, I don't think he's as expendable as some people here do.

[NJDevils1214]

34 minutes ago, DJ Eco said:

I like Vatanen a lot. I think good teams have a couple dependable d-men like Vatanen that can eat big minutes, I don't think he's as expendable as some people here do.

I like him. The only thing that makes me cold on him at this point are his injuries since coming to NJ. I hope it doesn't snowball.

[Neb00rs]

14 hours ago, MB3 said:

The LTIR loophole makes me wonder why the fvck teams don’t abuse it more often? 

Instead of all the major cap penalties to the Canucks, can’t luongo just... say ouchie?

LTIR can be advantageous but it isn't exactly a perfect "loophole." It can limit in-season roster flexibility in a variety of ways. Additionally, performance bonus overages from the current year carry over to next year's cap - and when teams are in LTIR they often don't have the end-of-year cap space to fit the bonuses in and thus they get absorbed the following year. Additionally, not every team can afford to just throw real cash at dead contracts that are still owed money. Of course, Toronto can afford to spend to the limit AND pay extra LTIR contracts over it.

As far as this VGK-TOR trade goes, not breaking news here, but it's extra good for Toronto as there's very little real money still owed to Clarkson (200K after insurance) and Toronto is going to be spent to the upper limit after Marner is signed as well. And according to CapFriendly they also have no performance bonuses on their NHL roster this year as of now. 

You still might ask, "Okay but still, they did this for a 4th round pick?" Well...why not? It's not like LTIR was avoidable for them with Horton there. What this trade tells me more than anything is that Toronto is committed to signing Marner, even at a cost they're not entirely comfortable with. I've said a few times on here that 9M for Marner is something Toronto can probably easily do given their cap space whereas 11M is not. Now, 11M looks a lot more likely along with keeping Nylander. Though, I still think it serves them best in the coming years to trade Nylander for the sake of re-signing defensemen. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Neb00rs

[SterioDesign]

12 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

In my opinion, if you weren't drafted by a team, and you didn't sign with that team as a free agent, its more likely that you'd want to go elsewhere once your contract is up.

Again, I am not saying its a fact, and it IS in fact, by definition, conjecture.  

I'm saying that it makes sense if you arrived via a trade and didn't choose to come here, you might not want to stay once your contract is up. Similar to what we just had happen with Pat Maroon, who granted, was not here as long as Vatanen will have been. Hopefully we are not seeing that with your boyfriend. 

Conversely, if you DID choose to come here, or you were drafted here and spent the first 7-8 years of your career here, got yourself established, etc., you might be more inclined to stay. 

Add to that the fact that the team hasn't been competitive, although certainly our direction has improved for the better, I'm not sure if it will be enough by the end of this year to make a guy say "THAT is the best chance I have to win".

It's not even a New Jersey thing, it probably applies anywhere. 

 

by that logic... are you assuming that Jimmy Vesey who choose not to sign with the Sabres... signed with another team... then got traded to the Sabres... maybe wouldn't want to stay there after his contract? 

i don't really want an answer.. i just wanted to point out how funny that situation is

[mfitz804]

8 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

by that logic... are you assuming that Jimmy Vesey who choose not to sign with the Sabres... signed with another team... then got traded to the Sabres... maybe wouldn't want to stay there after his contract? 

i don't really want an answer.. i just wanted to point out how funny that situation is

That situation is absolutely hysterical. Just in case he thought the Rangers ever gave a sh!t about him, they confirmed that they did not.

[MadDog2020]

[Rob_Ottawa]

Buddy went to Scott's house and narrowly avoided a thundering hip check from Scott as he did his usual patrol of his property borders.

Then, Scott decided to help the guy with his dog.  I mean, he's even wearing camo, so you know he's out watching his woods for any intruders.

Also, Philly orange uniforms remind me a lot of hunter orange, so watch out if you try hunting on Scott's lands.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Rob_Ottawa