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GDT - Devils vs Flyers 11/1/19 7:00 MSG+ 2


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If this board is to continue as a place for high quality hockey discussion, the ubiquitous hostility towards "advanced stats" has to stop. It's 2019, time to come around - the rest of the hockey world is.

The word "analytics" has come to be a pejorative, straying far from it's intended use, meaning "esoteric numbers that don't really mean anything."

Something beautiful has happened with the game in the past decade or so - and that is that smart people, numbers people, academically-minded people have found interest in applying their skills and knowledge to the game of hockey. The result is that we now are starting to build out a significant collection of data and methods that have helped the NHL (and other) organizations understand what is happening on the ice in a more accurate way than primitive stats have long allowed.

You might not like it, but there are ways to test how good all of these "advanced stats" are at predicting future success - we know they're not perfect, but they are a lot better than sticking with things like +/- which we know is not a great predictor of future performance. That's why so many teams are building "analytics" departments - because there are ways to interpret data in ways there wasn't before...verifiably better ways

And right now, this board, which was once a paragon of high-level hockey discussion is turning into a mob full of angry Devils fans who, every time any "new" stat they're not comfortable with is brought up, they go on the attack to minimize the importance of said stat and then go further on to launch into personal tirades against the players, coaches, and beat reporters involved with the team. Don't get me wrong, there's room to criticize all of these stats - but no one is doing so in a well-founded or substantive way. It's all just blind rejection.

I'm not an advanced hockey stats expert. But the reason I'm trying to adapt to the new hockey world is because I can see its legitimacy and importance. These numbers are not that hard to get either - one can learn them in fairly short order. I suggest people try to give them a chance. For now, this place is a little harder to be around at times because when one tries to begin a substantive metrics-based discussion on the board, that person has to spend so much time defending themselves on the very legitimacy of the metrics to begin with, that no deeper conversation can ever get started.

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I will be there with my dad tonight.  First time I have gone to a game with him in about 4-5 years.

Friday night was a blast for me personally.  While the end-result sucked, I had a great time with my dad. Before the game we stopped at a pizzeria in Vauxhall where we used to stop all the time w

He should worry about the game more than the fans. Mental midget. 

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16 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

If this board is to continue as a place for high quality hockey discussion, the ubiquitous hostility towards "advanced stats" has to stop. It's 2019, time to come around - the rest of the hockey world is.

The word "analytics" has come to be a pejorative, straying far from it's intended use, meaning "esoteric numbers that don't really mean anything."

Something beautiful has happened with the game in the past decade or so - and that is that smart people, numbers people, academically-minded people have found interest in applying their skills and knowledge to the game of hockey. The result is that we now are starting to build out a significant collection of data and methods that have helped the NHL (and other) organizations understand what is happening on the ice in a more accurate way than primitive stats have long allowed.

You might not like it, but there are ways to test how good all of these "advanced stats" are at predicting future success - we know they're not perfect, but they are a lot better than sticking with things like +/- which we know is not a great predictor of future performance. That's why so many teams are building "analytics" departments - because there are ways to interpret data in ways there wasn't before...verifiably better ways

And right now, this board, which was once a paragon of high-level hockey discussion is turning into a mob full of angry Devils fans who, every time any "new" stat they're not comfortable with is brought up, they go on the attack to minimize the importance of said stat and then go further on to launch into personal tirades against the players, coaches, and beat reporters involved with the team. Don't get me wrong, there's room to criticize all of these stats - but no one is doing so in a well-founded or substantive way. It's all just blind rejection.

I'm not an advanced hockey stats expert. But the reason I'm trying to adapt to the new hockey world is because I can see its legitimacy and importance. These numbers are not that hard to get either - one can learn them in fairly short order. I suggest people try to give them a chance. For now, this place is a little harder to be around at times because when one tries to begin a substantive metrics-based discussion on the board, that person has to spend so much time defending themselves on the very legitimacy of the metrics to begin with, that no deeper conversation can ever get started.

What I don't like about those who are well invested into advanced stats is the sometimes ignoring of the eye test. Both schools of thought have their flaws, especially in the prejudices against the other, its finding that middle ground that is a very tough order.

If you want to say so and so has insanely great numbers, but when they're on the ice they look like trash, or just the opposite, they look awesome but the stats are atrocious it makes them hard to stomach and come to terms with.

I also don't like the blind faith in the stats when they first came out and how a vocal minority had a mightier-than-thou attitude, especially when the numbers didn't match the results.

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32 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

And right now, this board, which was once a paragon of high-level hockey discussion is turning into a mob full of angry Devils fans who, every time any "new" stat they're not comfortable with is brought up, they go on the attack to minimize the importance of said stat and then go further on to launch into personal tirades against the players, coaches, and beat reporters involved with the team. 

This board has always had it's passionate rants and arguments to go along with the high level of discussion. 

I have no problems with taking advance stats into account. I always find Tri's posts interesting and knowledgeable.

When it comes to a personal level I just don't want to see a waste of a roster spot like Hayden get any ice time and I'm tired of watching Wood skate around like a train wreck. We are already losing and to me this season is already shot so I'd rather throw Gusev out there and see how it goes. He's only getting 12 mins a game anyway. At least we'll see if can adapt and get better. 

When it comes to the coaches I think Nazerdine sucks and it's clear the either Shero or Hynes do too because Fitz wouldn't be down there if there weren't issues going on. I've also had about enough of Hynes at this point as well and it's taken me years to get finally say I'm done with him but this season has been it for me. I don't normally trash coaches but it's time to move on from this group. 

The current beat reporters of this team, all of them, suck. Not a single one asks a hard question or feels like they can "ruffle any feathers" There is 0 accountability when it comes to the media with this team. I don't know how anyone can defend this group. I'm hoping this batch gets cleaned out soon and we get someone who actually produces some content that is worth the time to read or listen to. 

 

Edited by Satans Hockey
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6 minutes ago, jagknife said:

What I don't like about those who are well invested into advanced stats is the sometimes ignoring of the eye test. Both schools of thought have their flaws, especially in the prejudices against the other, its finding that middle ground that is a very tough order.

If you want to say so and so has insanely great numbers, but when they're on the ice they look like trash, or just the opposite, they look awesome but the stats are atrocious it makes them hard to stomach and come to terms with.

I also don't like the blind faith in the stats when they first came out and how a vocal minority had a mightier-than-thou attitude, especially when the numbers didn't match the results.

I think, in order for me to judge your post, I'd have to first better understand what you mean by "both schools"? I mean I know that one school is the stats school. What's the other? Seriously asking what you mean, I'm not being sarcastic.

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1 minute ago, Neb00rs said:

I think, in order for me to judge your post, I'd have to first better understand what you mean by "both schools"? I mean I know that one school is the stats school. What's the other? Seriously asking what you mean, I'm not being sarcastic.

The eye test, that people can just watch a game and see who is playing well and who isn't. 

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Gusev and Boqvist  must really be stinking up the ice something terrible during all these off days in between games to the point they can't even crack the lineup for a game during a sh!t stretch. I don't think there's any scenario where this isn't a top down decision either.  I also think it's about the eye test the org sees during practices rather then a fall back stat that hasn't been updated since the last game they played. At this point in thier NHL careers they just haven't shown enough to beat out a few plugs that continue to play.  It sucks.

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15 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

This board has always had it's passionate rants and arguments to go along with the high level of discussion. 

I have no problems with taking advance stats into account. I always find Tri's posts interesting and knowledgeable.

When it comes to a personal level I just don't want to see a waste of a roster spot like Hayden get any ice time and I'm tired of watching Wood skate around like a train wreck. We are already losing and to me this season is already shot so I'd rather throw Gusev out there and see how it goes. He's only getting 12 mins a game anyway. At least we'll see if can adapt and get better. 

When it comes to the coaches I think Nazerdine sucks and it's clear the either Shero or Hynes do too because Fitz wouldn't be down there if there weren't issues going on. I've also had about enough of Hynes at this point as well and it's taken me years to get finally say I'm done with him but this season has been it for me. I don't normally trash coaches but it's time to move on from this group. 

The current beat reporters of this team, all of them, suck. Not a single one asks a hard question or feels like they can "ruffle any feathers" There is 0 accountability when it comes to the media with this team. I don't know how anyone can defend this group. I'm hoping this batch gets cleaned out soon and we get someone who actually produces some content that is worth the time to read or listen to. 

 

I get the Hayden-Gusev thing. Everyone is excited about the skilled Gusev and no one likes the barely above AHL-caliber Hayden. But Triumph is 110% correct about Gusev. Gusev is barely playable in the AHL right now. He is a complete disaster out there. It's not just underlying numbers that say that either (though his underlying stats are at the bottom of the NHL) it's also pretty apparent to the naked eye that he's terrible as well. Some people try to give him credit for his creativity out there to be nice - but he hardly even creates anything - nor does he buy himself the opportunities to do so. I was a big proponent of trading for Gusev. I'll give it a bit more time, but right now it looks like he's bound to end up back in the KHL.

As for the coaches, it's hard to judge exactly what they're culpability is. And I am not here to police criticism of anyone involved with the Devils. I criticize all the time. It's just the vitriol I see that gets to me sometimes. I'm just one person on here, so if the board wants to continue this way then fine, but for me personally, the level of it is hard to take.

As for the beat reporters - the attacks on them have to stop. They're not amazing, you're right - that's just the way it is in hockey media across the entire league. If you want higher level stuff, I really suggest you read Masisak - I'll warn you though, he's going to talk about expected goals lol. Tom Gulittis are not a dime a dozen and even how good he was gets a bit exaggerated. I agree Abbey can be a bit insufferable but so what? It doesn't help that Devils Twitter treats her horribly. That solves nothing. And by the way, I think she does ask good locker room questions. Actually, I think she does a better job than just about anyone in Devils media on that front. She usually asks exactly what needs to be asked...in my opinion.

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7 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

The eye test, that people can just watch a game and see who is playing well and who isn't. 

But who is rejecting this school? Both schools exist together. I didn't see Triumph reject that school (nor myself ever). Actually Triumph gave specific observations of Gusev's play that are horrendous.

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Just now, Neb00rs said:

But who is rejecting this school? Both schools exist together. I didn't see Triumph reject that school (nor myself ever). Actually Triumph gave specific observations of Gusev's play that are horrendous.

I didn't say anyone was, just answering your question as to what jags was referring to. 

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15 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

I get the Hayden-Gusev thing. Everyone is excited about the skilled Gusev and no one likes the barely above AHL-caliber Hayden. But Triumph is 110% correct about Gusev. Gusev is barely playable in the AHL right now. He is a complete disaster out there. It's not just underlying numbers that say that either (though his underlying stats are at the bottom of the NHL) it's also pretty apparent to the naked eye that he's terrible as well. Some people try to give him credit for his creativity out there to be nice - but he hardly even creates anything - nor does he buy himself the opportunities to do so. I was a big proponent of trading for Gusev. I'll give it a bit more time, but right now it looks like he's bound to end up back in the KHL.

As for the coaches, it's hard to judge exactly what they're culpability is. And I am not here to police criticism of anyone involved with the Devils. I criticize all the time. It's just the vitriol I see that gets to me sometimes. I'm just one person on here, so if the board wants to continue this way then fine, but for me personally, the level of it is hard to take.

As for the beat reporters - the attacks on them have to stop. They're not amazing, you're right - that's just the way it is in hockey media across the entire league. If you want higher level stuff, I really suggest you read Masisak - I'll warn you though, he's going to talk about expected goals lol. Tom Gulittis are not a dime a dozen and even how good he was gets a bit exaggerated. I agree Abbey can be a bit insufferable but so what? It doesn't help that Devils Twitter treats her horribly. That solves nothing. And by the way, I think she does ask good locker room questions. Actually, I think she does a better job than just about anyone in Devils media on that front. She usually asks exactly what needs to be asked...in my opinion.

That's why I would keep Gusev to the PP and then try to get him some time each game 5v5, I'm not asking for him to play 20 mins. Maybe he gets better, maybe not. We'll find out soon enough because I think this upcoming 5 game road trip is going to be an absolute disaster so when that's over it really won't matter who plays at that point anyway. 

We can't get rid of all the players but if we keep going like this something has to give and that's going to have to be the coaches. Something has to change because this sure isn't working. 

The attacks don't have to stop because it's nothing personal. I'm not saying so and so is a horrible person and I wish them bad but the current group is simply not worth paying attention to for me, I just don't think any of them are good at their jobs. (I'm not including Amanda in this because I think she does a good job but she's a PR reporter, she's not there to ask hard questions) 

I'll have to see if Masisak has any free articles because there's no chance I'm ever paying to read anyone's articles. Nothing personal there either I just don't care about anyone's opinion enough to pay for it lol

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8 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

That's why I would keep Gusev to the PP and then try to get him some time each game 5v5, I'm not asking for him to play 20 mins. Maybe he gets better, maybe not. We'll find out soon enough because I think this upcoming 5 game road trip is going to be an absolute disaster so when that's over it really won't matter who plays at that point anyway. 

We can't get rid of all the players but if we keep going like this something has to give and that's going to have to be the coaches. Something has to change because this sure isn't working. 

The attacks don't have to stop because it's nothing personal. I'm not saying so and so is a horrible person and I wish them bad but the current group is simply not worth paying attention for me, I just don't think any of them are good at their jobs. (I'm not including Amanda in this because I think she does a good job but she's a PR reporter) 

I'll have to see if Masisak has any free articles because there's no chance I'm ever paying to read anyone's articles. Nothing personal there either I just don't care about anyone's opinion enough to pay for it lol

If in the games he played Gusev was just phenomenal on the PP then I suppose there's an argument to put him in just for the PP and hide him the rest of the game. But he wasn't that great and honestly, the powerplay looked just fine the other day - both units. As predicted Bratt performed much better when moved away from Gusev (not that he should be expected to perform that dominantly every game). And the team as a whole was pretty damn good last game no including the abhorrent goaltending, so no reason to slot him back in now. He'll get some more chances - he's here on a multimillion dollar contract. If he doesn't get better though, he and the team might decide to mutually terminate said contract, who knows.

RE: the bolded, this is exactly the right way to go about it in my opinion. Just ignore what you don't like and if enough people ignore it and it doesn't improve, the outlets will move to make changes. Fact is, reporting on the Devils for a local newspaper is never going to pull in top talent and in the rare case it does, said talent ain't gonna be there long.

The Athletic is REALLY worth it (moreso than I thought it would be at first). It goes on discount sometimes and they often have free trials just to try it out. I really don't think you'll regret it.

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I know he’s coming over from the KHL which is a much looser game but for Gusev be absolutely clueless out there about how to play any sort of two way game is a huge red flag for me.   I mean he should be able to be less of a liability than he is without a day of NHL coaching.   I hope I’m completely off and I still think it was a decent gamble by Shero but I’ll be surprised if he’s not back in the KHL by this time next year.  

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1 minute ago, Neb00rs said:

If in the games he played Gusev was just phenomenal on the PP then I suppose there's an argument to put him in just for the PP and hide him the rest of the game. But he wasn't that great and honestly, the powerplay looked just fine the other day - both units. As predicted Bratt performed much better when moved away from Gusev (not that he should be expected to perform that dominantly every game). And the team as a whole was pretty damn good last game no including the abhorrent goaltending, so no reason to slot him back in now. He'll get some more chances - he's here on a multimillion dollar contract. If he doesn't get better though, he and the team might decide to mutually terminate said contract, who knows.

RE: the bolded, this is exactly the right way to go about it in my opinion. Just ignore what you don't like and if enough people ignore it and it doesn't improve, the outlets will move to make changes. Fact is, reporting on the Devils for a local newspaper is never going to pull in top talent and in the rare case it does, said talent ain't gonna be there long.

The Athletic is REALLY worth it (moreso than I thought it would be at first). It goes on discount sometimes and they often have free trials just to try it out. I really don't think you'll regret it.

The powerplay was 1 for 5 and it was bad enough that it got booed loud enough that we hurt Hall's think skin. I'd be for hiding Gusev on the PP I think he'll get in some games again soon enough anyway. 

I think it wasn't good last year either but the main reason I've been bringing it up lately is became the team absolutely sucks this year and none of them hold anyone responsible. 

I'm just not into paying for multiple subscriptions. $5 here and there for this, $10 for Netflix, $ for Hulu, $ for the Disney network. I don't subscribe to any of it. Stuff has gotten out of hand lately. 

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6 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

The powerplay was 1 for 5 and it was bad enough that it got booed loud enough that we hurt Hall's think skin. I'd be for hiding Gusev on the PP I think he'll get in some games again soon enough anyway. 

I think it wasn't good last year either but the main reason I've been bringing it up lately is became the team absolutely sucks this year and none of them hold anyone responsible. 

I'm just not into paying for multiple subscriptions. $5 here and there for this, $10 for Netflix, $ for Hulu, $ for the Disney network. I don't subscribe to any of it. Stuff has gotten out of hand lately. 

Bratt's goal game as a powerplay expired as well, meaning both units produced something and we were basically 40%. It got a little sloppy later but in all it looked pretty good - we generated some chances.

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Yuck. Advanced statistics are perfectly fine way of aiding your analysis about a player but the second you view “expected goals for” as a statistic more important than “goals” you’re letting them tell too much of the story. 

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6 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Yuck. Advanced statistics are perfectly fine way of aiding your analysis about a player but the second you view “expected goals for” as a statistic more important than “goals” you’re letting them tell too much of the story. 

Actual goals are important you're right. And I can't force the stat on you but I do suggest you read about expected goals and then make your mind up:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/#more-4037

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6 hours ago, Crisis said:

They scored 6 goals last game with the two of them sitting.  They don't bring anything defensively to the game so I don't see why this matters.  Focus on not getting scored on, we have plenty of firepower.

So you think it’s likely one of the Devils scores a hat trick? And another scores a pair? 

No, this is just stupid anyway you want to look at it. Boqvist is one thing, but Gusev can clearly do more to help the team win than random 4th line scrubs like Hayden and Rooney. 

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27 minutes ago, titans04 said:

why not just send these guys down to let them play in actual games?

what am I missing?

They can only send Boqvist to Sweden, he's not eligible to be assigned to the AHL this season.  They're not likely to send Gusev to the AHL for a myriad of reasons - I don't think playing there is going to help him a whole lot, because he's not going to get to play with guys who can think the game on his level.  Which is why playing him with Rooney and Wood or whatever isn't a sensible alternative, either.

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4 minutes ago, Triumph said:

They can only send Boqvist to Sweden, he's not eligible to be assigned to the AHL this season.  They're not likely to send Gusev to the AHL for a myriad of reasons - I don't think playing there is going to help him a whole lot, because he's not going to get to play with guys who can think the game on his level.  Which is why playing him with Rooney and Wood or whatever isn't a sensible alternative, either.

Thanks.  Great situation for both then, well thought out.  I honestly don't think it would cause much harm in sending Gusev down rather than sitting in the press box.  My guess is the way he thinks the game needs to be seriously adjusted in the orgs mind or he'd be in the lineup.

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6 minutes ago, titans04 said:

Thanks.  Great situation for both then, well thought out.  I honestly don't think it would cause much harm in sending Gusev down rather than sitting in the press box.  My guess is the way he thinks the game needs to be seriously adjusted in the orgs mind or he'd be in the lineup.

Goose would get claimed if we send him down, that’s the bigger issue

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