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2020 NHL Draft Thread: Devils: #7 Holtz!


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54 minutes ago, Guadana said:

another game another goal

Is this his 8th game (and 4th goal of the season)?

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Lafreniere reminds me a bit of John Tavares. Lafreniere has more bite and physicality to his game, but the offensive tools are a dead ringer to Tavares for me. Byfield reminds of Eric Staal in hi

thanks for asking! i’m 100% now, and my wife never tested positive.

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4 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Obviously a cornerstone of our franchise for the next 10 years. 

;) 

11 years. 3+8 and we will see after that.

He doesn`t look like an all around beast, but when he`s shooting - some kind of anime is beginning.

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There aren't too many high end Russian defenseman drafted in recent years who have played in Russia in their draft season. There's Alexander Romanov, one of the Habs' top prospects. He was drafted in 2018, and has been relatively productive in the MHL and in international tournaments. In the KHL, his season high (last season) was 7 points in 43 games. Mukhamadullin already has that many points in less than half of the games played, despite being a year younger than Romanov at the time.

There's also Alexander Alexeyev, also drafted in 2018 (Caps), but out of the WHL, where he was nearly a point/game player. 2 seasons later, he's playing on the same team as Mukhamadullin, and has produced fewer points (but has played fewer games) - two years older than Mukh. For what it's worth, Alexeyev was more productive at the WHL level than both Schneider and Guhle were at the same age. These are the two players that some argue that Fitzy was waiting for, and then panic drafted Shakir instead once the other two were off the board (LOL).

Unfortunately, Provorov and Sergachev both were drafted from CHL teams, so it's tough to compare. Here's the best I can do:  Sergachev's D-1 year, he played in the MHL and produced 8 points in 27 games (regular season + playoffs). Mukhamadullin only had 11 total games, but scored 4 points. Small sample size, so probably not much to infer from that.

Of course there's more to defensemen than their points production, but these are some reasons to think highly of the player the Devils drafted. And Shakir is not someone like Jeremie Poirier, who is a disaster in his own end. This is someone who is already pretty strong defensively.

And also, check out this shot. Imagine teeing this guy up on the power play (5:44 if it doesn't automatically start from there):

 

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So to make you all feel much better here - I think Holtz is like the 3rd highest ranked prospect of the class in NHL 21.

Elite Medium potential as well, so clearly we picked a winner.

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4 hours ago, nessus said:

There aren't too many high end Russian defenseman drafted in recent years who have played in Russia in their draft season. There's Alexander Romanov, one of the Habs' top prospects. He was drafted in 2018, and has been relatively productive in the MHL and in international tournaments. In the KHL, his season high (last season) was 7 points in 43 games. Mukhamadullin already has that many points in less than half of the games played, despite being a year younger than Romanov at the time.

There's also Alexander Alexeyev, also drafted in 2018 (Caps), but out of the WHL, where he was nearly a point/game player. 2 seasons later, he's playing on the same team as Mukhamadullin, and has produced fewer points (but has played fewer games) - two years older than Mukh. For what it's worth, Alexeyev was more productive at the WHL level than both Schneider and Guhle were at the same age. These are the two players that some argue that Fitzy was waiting for, and then panic drafted Shakir instead once the other two were off the board (LOL).

Unfortunately, Provorov and Sergachev both were drafted from CHL teams, so it's tough to compare. Here's the best I can do:  Sergachev's D-1 year, he played in the MHL and produced 8 points in 27 games (regular season + playoffs). Mukhamadullin only had 11 total games, but scored 4 points. Small sample size, so probably not much to infer from that.

Of course there's more to defensemen than their points production, but these are some reasons to think highly of the player the Devils drafted. And Shakir is not someone like Jeremie Poirier, who is a disaster in his own end. This is someone who is already pretty strong defensively.

And also, check out this shot. Imagine teeing this guy up on the power play (5:44 if it doesn't automatically start from there)

Re:  the bolded, why wasn't Shakir projected to go nearly as high as he wound up going?  Not like scouts everywhere thought super-highly of him.  At the time, it felt like a reach pick; not so sure that he was Fitz's Plan A with #20.

That being said, I'm not ripping the pick (though I was definitely in "Huh what?!" mode when Fitz selected him)...now I'm just hopeful that it will work out.  

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2 hours ago, Devilsfan118 said:

So to make you all feel much better here - I think Holtz is like the 3rd highest ranked prospect of the class in NHL 21.

Elite Medium potential as well, so clearly we picked a winner.

Who is first and second?

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4 hours ago, Guadana said:

Who is first and second?

Lafreniere is a high-elite 82 overall (bleh), and Byfield is 78 medium-elite.  Holtz is a 78 medium-elite as well.

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10 hours ago, nessus said:

There aren't too many high end Russian defenseman drafted in recent years who have played in Russia in their draft season. There's Alexander Romanov, one of the Habs' top prospects. He was drafted in 2018, and has been relatively productive in the MHL and in international tournaments. In the KHL, his season high (last season) was 7 points in 43 games. Mukhamadullin already has that many points in less than half of the games played, despite being a year younger than Romanov at the time.

There's also Alexander Alexeyev, also drafted in 2018 (Caps), but out of the WHL, where he was nearly a point/game player. 2 seasons later, he's playing on the same team as Mukhamadullin, and has produced fewer points (but has played fewer games) - two years older than Mukh. For what it's worth, Alexeyev was more productive at the WHL level than both Schneider and Guhle were at the same age. These are the two players that some argue that Fitzy was waiting for, and then panic drafted Shakir instead once the other two were off the board (LOL).

Unfortunately, Provorov and Sergachev both were drafted from CHL teams, so it's tough to compare. Here's the best I can do:  Sergachev's D-1 year, he played in the MHL and produced 8 points in 27 games (regular season + playoffs). Mukhamadullin only had 11 total games, but scored 4 points. Small sample size, so probably not much to infer from that.

Of course there's more to defensemen than their points production, but these are some reasons to think highly of the player the Devils drafted. And Shakir is not someone like Jeremie Poirier, who is a disaster in his own end. This is someone who is already pretty strong defensively.

And also, check out this shot. Imagine teeing this guy up on the power play (5:44 if it doesn't automatically start from there):

 

Nothing would make me happier than if Mukhamadullin would end up being better than Romanov cause Habs fans has been pumping his tires like he's the next lidstrom for the last 2 years. 

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1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

Nothing would make me happier than if Mukhamadullin would end up being better than Romanov cause Habs fans has been pumping his tires like he's the next lidstrom for the last 2 years. 

Then I hope they are right AND that Mukha is still better than him.

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7 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Re:  the bolded, why wasn't Shakir projected to go nearly as high as he wound up going?  Not like scouts everywhere thought super-highly of him.  At the time, it felt like a reach pick; not so sure that he was Fitz's Plan A with #20.

That being said, I'm not ripping the pick (though I was definitely in "Huh what?!" mode when Fitz selected him)...now I'm just hopeful that it will work out.  

I wasn't necessarily arguing that Mukhamadullin was Fitz's plan A at 20 going into the draft as much as I don't think it's the best take to say that Mukhamadullin was a panic move just because Schneider went 19. When the Devils went up to pick at 18, they must have known that there was a possibility that their next choice would be gone by 20 if it was Schneider. We really don't know how the Devils scouting team had ranked the defensemen in this draft. 

And this is a whole different argument, but I don't buy the idea that all of these journalists' rankings are reflective of actual scouts' rankings. Take Amirov for example. Fitzgerald spoke about him as if he had been very highly rated by NHL scouts. Sure he was set to go in the first round based on most mock drafts, but my impression was that he was the guy you took after the Mercers and Perreaults were off the board. Fitzgerald made it seem like he was universally ranked much higher. Whereas there are players like Gunler who many writers thought the Devils might take at 18 or 20 - ended up going after 40. 

With all that said, I think an argument can be made that Fitzgerald could have wanted to come out of the first with at least one defenseman, and drafted Mukh slightly higher than he had expected to (If Sanderson was available at 7, would Mukhamadullin still have been taken at 20?). At the same time, you're not going to take a player in the first round that you haven't extensively scouted, and there is no way Mukhamadullin was lasting until the Devils' 3rd round pick IMO. It's also reasonable to think that Fitzgerald loved the prospect and did not want to risk missing him. He did just load up on big defenseman in the last draft, so it's not a position of need in the system.

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As far as journalists and the media go...I don't think there's any bigger waste of time than "mock drafts", in any sport.  They never come anywhere NEAR being correct...all it takes is a few teams going off the board or a couple of trades (and some guys sliding just because), and that's that.  

Did ANYONE have the Devils selecting Muk?  Did anyone even have any teams taking him in the first round?  

When it comes to player rankings, I'll at least listen to ex-GMs or players ahead of others in the media...but yeah, I would love to see team-by-team depth charts, just to see how different they are.  

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What i dont like seeing is this though. A redraft of the 2018 draft putting Smith at 21 https://www.si.com/hockey/news/redoing-the-2018-nhl-draft-how-would-it-unfold-two-years-later

Obviously it could change once he's in the NHL but it goes to show what an echo chamber can do too. He was perceived as a steal at 17 to all of us but now based on some metric, to some people he's ranked further down.

And that's another thing where... who's right? Whoever wrote the article... meaning we had our head in the sand when he didn't play well at all and didnt make the team? Or they didn't put as much stock into what we're looking at and hopeful for. 

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That was first round. Schneider could went earlier. Its stupid narrative about panic moves. Fitz had his priority list, he said that many times by other words. Mukha is still risky pick, I still think they should trade down for him with Washington or Calgary. There were many great options in second and third round for our organization. Like Jurmo who is kinda like Mukha player on the right side.

Smith is defenseman. Forwards development is shorter. Mocks like this is nothing.

Amirov is a way better prospect than Perrault. He is playing in the second best league and he is competent there. You can watch his game he play this season what all scouts absolutely did. if Toronto hadn't taken him, he would have gone to Chicago.

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17 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

What i dont like seeing is this though. A redraft of the 2018 draft putting Smith at 21 https://www.si.com/hockey/news/redoing-the-2018-nhl-draft-how-would-it-unfold-two-years-later

Obviously it could change once he's in the NHL but it goes to show what an echo chamber can do too. He was perceived as a steal at 17 to all of us but now based on some metric, to some people he's ranked further down.

And that's another thing where... who's right? Whoever wrote the article... meaning we had our head in the sand when he didn't play well at all and didnt make the team? Or they didn't put as much stock into what we're looking at and hopeful for. 

Making a list somehow reminds me of this

 

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17 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

What i dont like seeing is this though. A redraft of the 2018 draft putting Smith at 21 https://www.si.com/hockey/news/redoing-the-2018-nhl-draft-how-would-it-unfold-two-years-later

Obviously it could change once he's in the NHL but it goes to show what an echo chamber can do too. He was perceived as a steal at 17 to all of us but now based on some metric, to some people he's ranked further down.

And that's another thing where... who's right? Whoever wrote the article... meaning we had our head in the sand when he didn't play well at all and didnt make the team? Or they didn't put as much stock into what we're looking at and hopeful for. 

Bahls moving from 55 to 26 is kinda cool. 

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