NHL: 24 team playoffs soon. Devil's season is over

[titans04]

5 minutes ago, aylbert said:

They are collectivizing the play-in team losers while keeping the odds the same for the teams eliminated.
This feels and smells like bullsh!t though...  the play-in teams are most likely to win the 1st overall now.   and then when they do, they draw straws for it.

DETROIT 18.5%
OTTAWA 13.5%
OTTAWA (from SAN JOSE) 11.5%
LOS ANGELES 9.5%
ANAHEIM 8.5%
NJ 7.5%
BUFF 6.5%
LOSER FROM PLAY-INS COLLECTIVELY: 24.5%

Those 8 teams share that pick evenly... so each of them effectively have a 3.0625% chance to win the draft lottery.

 

So F*CK me I don't even know what collectivizing means. 

 

[aylbert]

2 minutes ago, titans04 said:

So F*CK me I don't even know what collectivizing means. 

 

I mean maybe I'm taking liberties with it...   but all the play-in teams are throwing their balls together and sharing the outcome.       
So if one of them wins anything...   they have another drawing for it, where they all have the same odds of winning (1/8).

[Satans Hockey]

2 minutes ago, aylbert said:

They arent starting in the playoffs...  the bottom teams are qualifying for the playoffs in a play in.   The top teams are playing for positioning...  and then they will start the playoffs.
I mean, yes, the odds are the same...  it just feels wrong.

Pittsburgh has a chance to win #1 overall if they are bounced in 5 games. That's horsesh!t to me because they were definitely making the playoffs. 

[titans04]

4 minutes ago, aylbert said:

I mean maybe I'm taking liberties with it...   but all the play-in teams are throwing their balls together and sharing the outcome.       
So if one of them wins anything...   they have another drawing for it, where they all have the same odds of winning (1/8).

nah you could of nailed it for all I know. The whole thing is nonsense to me, I'm heading to Jenkinson's to the water gun game that scenario makes more sense to me. I'll be there in 10 mins.

Edited May 26, 2020 by titans04

[mfitz804]

7 minutes ago, aylbert said:

They arent starting in the playoffs...  the bottom teams are qualifying for the playoffs in a play in.   The top teams are playing for positioning...  and then they will start the playoffs.
I mean, yes, the odds are the same...  it just feels wrong.

To clarify what I said, a team can play in, win the Stanley Cup, and also select the #1 overall pick. That’s horsesh!t. 

Just now, titans04 said:

nah you could of nailed it for all I know. The whole thing is nonsense to me, I'm heading to Jenkinson's to the water gun game that scenario makes more sense to me.

Or balloon darts, I’m not particular. 

[aylbert]

1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

To clarify what I said, a team can play in, win the Stanley Cup, and also select the #1 overall pick. That’s horsesh!t. 

That can't happen.    Only the play-in losers are in the play-in losers bunch.

[titans04]

11 minutes ago, aylbert said:

That can't happen.    Only the play-in losers are in the play-in losers bunch.

That's my understanding too. But as Satans said there's no scenario where Pitt should possibly be able to pick # 1. (and not just cause they're the Pens)

[mfitz804]

12 minutes ago, aylbert said:

That can't happen.    Only the play-in losers are in the play-in losers bunch.

Ahh I missed that. That makes a little more sense. 

I mean not a lot of sense, but a little. 

We can assume from that that as of now, Vancouver has not made the playoffs for purposes of our pick. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by mfitz804

[Satans Hockey]

3 minutes ago, titans04 said:

That's my understanding too. But as Satans said there's no scenario where Pitt should possibly be able to pick # 1. (and not just cause they're the Pens)

I've seen the argument it's only fair because they have to play in the play in round which they normally wouldn't have had to play. 

I would have just had the teams in the final 16 normal playoff spots weighted on win percentage and never done a play in series. People would have bitched about that too but I think it would have been more fair than this dumb play in nonsense. 

This league also probably thinks they can squeeze two lotto shows out of this and get major ratings because they are delusional and saw what the NFL draft ratings were.

[SterioDesign]

32 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Yeah it’s dumb. And it says to me that the play-in round isn’t being treated as “the playoffs”, so Vancouver has not played in the playoffs yet. 

In other news, what about Vatanen, anyone know his status? Is he ready to lace them up?

That's basically how i see it. The Play-In is not the playoffs... teams are awarded a condensed "remaining of the season / race for the playoffs" done in 5 games. So i don't think we should see it as they are given a shot at the cup AND the first overall. They are given a chance at the playoffs.

That being said... I still think teams like us who were like .0001 behind like MTL but didn't get a chance to win a spot in the playoffs... are only getting that .0001 leg up for the draft lottery. I mean... it's incredibly hard to not be biased looking at this overall. I still think the team who didn't get a shot... should have a bump in % chances and the one who goes a shot at the playoffs should have less.

[SterioDesign]

5 minutes ago, MB3 said:

i knew my nipples got hard randomly in the middle of the day today for some reason.

well it was officially NOT random anymore

edit: also which one was it? Left or right?

Edited May 26, 2020 by SterioDesign

[Jerrydevil]

7 hours ago, Jimmy Leeds said:

lol......I had a co-worker with a relative on the Capitals. I never would say which player, but because of that, I'd get a little bit of insights on an NHL player's thinking. Not much, but a decent amount. I was cryptic once saying basically that and a couple of regulars here ripped into me like nobody's business.  Since almost all the names here blend together I forget who but it was, but I got accused of bragging, etc........  very well may have been mfitz then also

My guess is Steve Konowalchuk or Ken Klee. I know you're not saying but I felt like guessing anyway.

[SterioDesign]

So i'm not sure i fully understand that phase 2 thing?

ok as im typing this i think i understood...

So basically... the first phase will be "DET, OTT, OTT, LA, ANA, NJ, BUF" plus... a list of letters not unassigned to a specific team yet... so say E is picked for first overall... it says it will be award in phase 2...

So... will it be awarded to wtv falls on that letter position when it's all said and done... or they'll do another lottery with just those teams?

[mfitz804]

I’m beyond trying to understand this sh!t. Play some hockey, do the draft lottery, tell me which picks we get. 

[titans04]

at some point where does kicking the can down the road run out? Meaning next season will be a full 82 games but not start until January? 3 months late.  Aren't they going to have to bite the bullet at some point at make up for it?

 

[Neb00rs]

The bottom-ranked (25-31) teams really don't get anything from this return-to-play plan. They agree to be eliminated and don't get any better draft odds. This has the smell of the "out" teams like the Devils just being happy to avoid the risk of infection and turn their attention to the draft. It's capitulatory, but there's a really strong risk the Devils worsen their lottery odds significantly and don't win a single playoff game. It might be maddening now to give up the chance to play-in but after the Devils pull off an upset and win their qualifying series and then get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, many of us will be wishing that the Devils had a higher draft pick and the team's glaring holes will not have gone away. I'm not saying the chance to play-in wouldn't be nice, you don't want to have a loser attitude, but this is a pretty solid way to look at the glass half-full. The worst part of it all, is that we might not have Devils hockey for a total of almost 11 months. But I mean, some of ya'll were begging for a break from the perennial sh!tshow anyway.

[SterioDesign]

 

23 minutes ago, MB3 said:

middle

Total Recall fan i see...

15 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Teams who lose in the first round have a 3% chance at winning the lottery. That means there is a 24% chance a PLACEHOLDER will be pulled as a "lottery winner". If that happens, there will be a second lottery event held after the qualifying round (distinctly not called the playoffs, this is a play-in round of regular season games) to see which of the teams who was already eliminated gets that pick. So no, there isn't "E" team and "F" team or anything like that -- it's "play-in loser" and a separate lottery later. 

This kinda sucks for any of us losers, because our chances of winning the lottery just dropped and our chances of dropping in the draft order just increased pretty significantly. But I'm so tired about giving a sh!t so I'm choosing not to. I hope the Rangers lose, I hope the Panthers lose, I hope the Flyers lose, and I hope the Devils aren't looking at lottery balls my entire adult life. 

It's gonna suck SO hard if all 3 picks are not won by teams in the bottom group. Cause then we won't know if we do get the Arizona pick or not this year. So we may have 2 top 10 picks or not. And having to wait to know that will suck. It doesnt suck in the sense that... Arizona will have the same odds to win if it one done at once or not... but having to stretch that for us will suck if that happen.

And let's not forget that fvcking Taylor Hall is on that team.

So we're STILL at risk of only having one first round pick this season right now and it already sucks to have to wait to know.. but potentially have to wait even longer? ughh

Edited May 26, 2020 by SterioDesign

[Nicomo]

1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Absolutely, bat-sh!t insane to me that the teams that are going to play in the qualifying round get a chance at the 1OA pick.  Do the math - there's a 24.5% chance that a team that loses their play-in series gets the only franchise player in the draft.

Why?  Why must the NHL always make things difficult?  Do a separate lottery for the 7 teams to determine who gets the 1st/2nd/3rd overall pick, then a separate lottery for the other teams to determine their order.

Listen, I get it that we can't complain about the lottery being cruel to us over the past few years since we've been extraordinarily lucky.  But this just seems stupid.

We have no idea what the future holds for these kids. Pettersson was the best pick in his draft, and he went 5th. We already have people on this very board claiming Dach will be better than Jack Hughes. Lafrenière is obviously the big prize, but the top 6-8 guys are all pretty damn good prospects this year. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Nicomo

[aylbert]

29 minutes ago, MB3 said:

This kinda sucks for any of us losers, because our chances of winning the lottery just dropped and our chances of dropping in the draft order just increased pretty significantly.

 

16 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

but there's a really strong risk the Devils worsen their lottery odds significantly and don't win a single playoff game.

This isn't accurate.  Our odds are unchanged.  That's true for all the teams not in the "play-ins"
The play-in losers are grouping together their odds and sharing it.     So whereas, the best team to miss the playoffs would have a 1% chance to win, they now have a 3%.    At the expense of the 8th worst team - who would typically have a 6% chance etc.

8   6%    now 3%  (3)
9   5%   now 3%  (-2)
10  3.5%  now 3% (-.5)
11  3%  now 3%  (unchanged)
12  2.5% now 3%  (+.5)
13  2.0%  now 3% (+1)
14  1.5%  now 3%  (+1.5)
15  1%  now 3%  (+2)

So if one of these balls is pulled for 1st 2nd or 3rd, they all share it and have another equal weight drawing.
 

[Satans Hockey]

20 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

But I mean, some of ya'll were begging for a break from the perennial sh!tshow anyway.

I'm actually not minding the break. This was a downright horrible season, if not the worst one I've ever experienced simply from the nice off season to being up 4-0 the first game and the absolute implosion of the rest of the season with the season being over by Halloween and the coach, hall and shero all being sent off.

I would rather see them cut down games for next year though instead of the regular season ending in early August. 

[Neb00rs]

3 minutes ago, aylbert said:

 

This isn't accurate.  Our odds are unchanged.  That's true for all the teams not in the "play-ins"
The play-in losers are grouping together their odds and sharing it.     So whereas, the best team to miss the playoffs would have a 1% chance to win, they now have a 3%.    At the expense of the 8th worst team - who would typically have a 6% chance etc.

8   6%    now 3%  (3)
9   5%   now 3%  (-2)
10  3.5%  now 3% (-.5)
11  3%  now 3%  (unchanged)
12  2.5% now 3%  (+.5)
13  2.0%  now 3% (+1)
14  1.5%  now 3%  (+1.5)
15  1%  now 3%  (+2)

So if one of these balls is pulled for 1st 2nd or 3rd, they all share it and have another equal weight drawing.
 

Are you responding to me? I'm referring to if the Devils win their play-in. Not if they lose. Playoff teams aren't in the lottery.

[aylbert]

8 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

Are you responding to me? I'm referring to if the Devils win their play-in. Not if they lose. Playoff teams aren't in the lottery.

The Devils dont have a play in game; our season is done.

[titans04]

 

[Devilsfan118]

Well, that helps a lot. Clearly need to root against the Yotes and Canucks

[Neb00rs]

18 minutes ago, aylbert said:

The Devils dont have a play in game; our season is done.

Yes, the point I was making was in re: the Devils being on the outside of the 24 team play-in. The rub in the negotiations is making everyone happy. What is the impetus for the Devils to accept the return-to-play plan? They get bumped out without any significant gain. A nay vote from the Devils wouldn't have mattered anyway but the Devils voted for it. Why? Probably because they're happy to just stay in their lottery position and not risk infection. Glass half-full is: had the Devils made the playoffs (i.e. won their play-in), they would be out of the lottery and would very likely not go much further. Now they secure a good draft position pretty much regardless.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Neb00rs