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NHL: 24 team playoffs soon. Devil's season is over


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1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Absolutely, bat-sh!t insane to me that the teams that are going to play in the qualifying round get a chance at the 1OA pick.  Do the math - there's a 24.5% chance that a team that loses their play-in series gets the only franchise player in the draft.

Why?  Why must the NHL always make things difficult?  Do a separate lottery for the 7 teams to determine who gets the 1st/2nd/3rd overall pick, then a separate lottery for the other teams to determine their order.

Listen, I get it that we can't complain about the lottery being cruel to us over the past few years since we've been extraordinarily lucky.  But this just seems stupid.

We have no idea what the future holds for these kids. Pettersson was the best pick in his draft, and he went 5th. We already have people on this very board claiming Dach will be better than Jack Hughes. Lafrenière is obviously the big prize, but the top 6-8 guys are all pretty damn good prospects this year. 

Edited by Nicomo
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29 minutes ago, MB3 said:

This kinda sucks for any of us losers, because our chances of winning the lottery just dropped and our chances of dropping in the draft order just increased pretty significantly.

 

16 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

but there's a really strong risk the Devils worsen their lottery odds significantly and don't win a single playoff game.

This isn't accurate.  Our odds are unchanged.  That's true for all the teams not in the "play-ins"
The play-in losers are grouping together their odds and sharing it.     So whereas, the best team to miss the playoffs would have a 1% chance to win, they now have a 3%.    At the expense of the 8th worst team - who would typically have a 6% chance etc.

8   6%    now 3%  (3)
9   5%   now 3%  (-2)
10  3.5%  now 3% (-.5)
11  3%  now 3%  (unchanged)
12  2.5% now 3%  (+.5)
13  2.0%  now 3% (+1)
14  1.5%  now 3%  (+1.5)
15  1%  now 3%  (+2)

So if one of these balls is pulled for 1st 2nd or 3rd, they all share it and have another equal weight drawing.
 

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20 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

But I mean, some of ya'll were begging for a break from the perennial sh!tshow anyway.

I'm actually not minding the break. This was a downright horrible season, if not the worst one I've ever experienced simply from the nice off season to being up 4-0 the first game and the absolute implosion of the rest of the season with the season being over by Halloween and the coach, hall and shero all being sent off.

I would rather see them cut down games for next year though instead of the regular season ending in early August. 

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3 minutes ago, aylbert said:

 

This isn't accurate.  Our odds are unchanged.  That's true for all the teams not in the "play-ins"
The play-in losers are grouping together their odds and sharing it.     So whereas, the best team to miss the playoffs would have a 1% chance to win, they now have a 3%.    At the expense of the 8th worst team - who would typically have a 6% chance etc.

8   6%    now 3%  (3)
9   5%   now 3%  (-2)
10  3.5%  now 3% (-.5)
11  3%  now 3%  (unchanged)
12  2.5% now 3%  (+.5)
13  2.0%  now 3% (+1)
14  1.5%  now 3%  (+1.5)
15  1%  now 3%  (+2)

So if one of these balls is pulled for 1st 2nd or 3rd, they all share it and have another equal weight drawing.
 

Are you responding to me? I'm referring to if the Devils win their play-in. Not if they lose. Playoff teams aren't in the lottery.

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8 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

Are you responding to me? I'm referring to if the Devils win their play-in. Not if they lose. Playoff teams aren't in the lottery.

The Devils dont have a play in game; our season is done.

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19 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

Are you responding to me? I'm referring to if the Devils win their play-in. Not if they lose. Playoff teams aren't in the lottery.

oh my sweet summer child 

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18 minutes ago, aylbert said:

The Devils dont have a play in game; our season is done.

Yes, the point I was making was in re: the Devils being on the outside of the 24 team play-in. The rub in the negotiations is making everyone happy. What is the impetus for the Devils to accept the return-to-play plan? They get bumped out without any significant gain. A nay vote from the Devils wouldn't have mattered anyway but the Devils voted for it. Why? Probably because they're happy to just stay in their lottery position and not risk infection. Glass half-full is: had the Devils made the playoffs (i.e. won their play-in), they would be out of the lottery and would very likely not go much further. Now they secure a good draft position pretty much regardless.

Edited by Neb00rs
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38 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

Yes, the point I was making was in re: the Devils being on the outside of the 24 team play-in. The rub in the negotiations is making everyone happy. What is the impetus for the Devils to accept the return-to-play plan? They get bumped out without any significant gain. A nay vote from the Devils wouldn't have mattered anyway but the Devils voted for it. Why? Probably because they're happy to just stay in their lottery position and not risk infection. Glass half-full is: had the Devils made the playoffs (i.e. won their play-in), they would be out of the lottery and would very likely not go much further. Now they secure a good draft position pretty much regardless.

The Devils also dont need to jump through the expense and hoops for nothing - they can just let the contracts expire of their personnel etc.   

The line was drawn neatly, and allows for all the .500+ teams a chance to win the Cup; while the sub 500 teams are out... giving consequence for sucking in 2019-20...  while also preserving the more competitive bottom feeders chance for 1OA.
I don't like the play-in losers grouping together their lottery chances...   

Ideally I'd like to keep the bottom 7 as-is...  then let the play-ins occur...     then rank the losers of the play-ins by point% from the regular season.
Then have ONE lottery with the traditional lottery odds for all teams outside of the playoffs.

As-is, I don't get why they are having two draft lotteries. 

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1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Well, that helps a lot. Clearly need to root against the Yotes and Canucks

Root against ARZ and for them not to win the lottery.

Root for Canucks to make playoffs and lose immediately.

Best possible for scenario for the devils this year:

1) Win the lottery outright - #1 pick.

2) ARZ loses qualifying round and does not win lottery - #8 pick (no qualifying loser wins a lottery spot for ARZ to finish 😎

3) Van advances to playoffs and loses in round 1 - #17 pick

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36 minutes ago, aylbert said:

Ideally I'd like to keep the bottom 7 as-is...  then let the play-ins occur...     then rank the losers of the play-ins by point% from the regular season.

Then have ONE lottery with the traditional lottery odds for all teams outside of the playoffs.

As-is, I don't get why they are having two draft lotteries. 

I don't really see what the big fuss is about the two lotteries. It's complicated...but so what? It's pretty clear where the Devils stand and the NHL [possibly] gets the chance to run the big reveal show twice. Maybe that will somewhat make up for the millions of $$$ in COVID testing this R2P is going to eventually cost the league. Better yet, it'll give something to the eliminated teams to chew on while twenty-four other teams play hockey.

The bigger concern is the possibility that a top team like the Penguins loses their play-in and ends up winning the lottery and Lafreniere. That would cause an uproar. I don't think it's all that unlikely the Pens lose either. The Pens are a lot better than the Canadiens but after all that time off? Weird things are bound to happen. Still, teams that were sitting in a playoff spot at seasons end should probably gain some advantage if they don't end up making the playoffs under this new format - this is it, they now get a lottery shot and it's only a shot.

Edited by Neb00rs
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Also want to see Carolina knock out the Rangers and Florida knock out the Islanders.

The "play in" match ups are... 

Eastern Conference 

#1 - Boston - bye

#2 - Tampa Bay - bye

#3 - Washington - bye 

#4 - Philadelphia - bye

#5 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #12 Montreal Canadiens

#6 Carolina Hurricanes vs. #11 New York Rangers

#7 New York Islanders vs. #10 Florida Panthers

#8 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. #9 Columbus Blue Jackets

Western Conference 

#1 - St. Louis - bye

#2 - Colorado - bye

#3 - Vegas - bye

#4 - Dallas - bye

#5 Edmonton Oilers vs. #12 Chicago Blackhawks


#6 Nashville Predators vs. #11 Arizona Coyotes


#7 Vancouver Canucks vs. #10 Minnesota Wild


#8 Calgary Flames vs. #9 Winnipeg Jets

Edited by Satans Hockey
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Also want to see Carolina knock out the Rangers and Florida knock out the Islanders.

The "play in" match ups are... 

Eastern Conference 

#1 - Boston - bye

#2 - Tampa Bay - bye

#3 - Washington - bye 

#4 - Philadelphia - bye

#5 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #12 Montreal Canadiens

#6 Carolina Hurricanes vs. #11 New York Rangers

#7 New York Islanders vs. #10 Florida Panthers

#8 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. #9 Columbus Blue Jackets

Western Conference 

#1 - St. Louis - bye

#2 - Colorado - bye

#3 - Vegas - bye

#4 - Dallas - bye

#5 Edmonton Oilers vs. #12 Chicago Blackhawks

#6 Nashville Predators vs. #11 Arizona Coyotes

#7 Vancouver Canucks vs. #10 Minnesota Wild

#8 Calgary Flames vs. #9 Winnipeg Jets

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27 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

I don't really see what the big fuss is about the two lotteries. It's complicated...but so what? It's pretty clear where the Devils stand and the NHL [possibly] gets the chance to run the big reveal show twice. Maybe that will somewhat make up for the millions of $$$ in COVID testing this R2P is going to eventually cost the league. Better yet, it'll give something to the eliminated teams to chew on while twenty-four other teams play hockey.

The bigger concern is the possibility that a top team like the Penguins loses their play-in and ends up winning the lottery and Lafreniere. That would cause an uproar. I don't think it's all that unlikely the Pens lose either. The Pens are a lot better than the Canadiens but after all that time off? Weird things are bound to happen. Still, teams that were sitting in a playoff spot at seasons end should probably gain some advantage if they don't end up making the playoffs under this new format - this is it, they now get a lottery shot and it's only a shot.

The two lotteries are connected.
If we just played the play-ins first, and then rank the losers in reverse order...  in the case the Penguins lose, they would get a 1% shot rather than a 3% chance (assuming they would be the best team to miss).

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the best case scenario for us would be

Montreal winning against Pittsburgh

Vancouver winning against Minny

Chicago winning against Edm

Nashville winning against Arizona

Then Vancouver losing in the first round.

That way the Arizona's pick would go from 10th to 8th. And we'd get the Vancouver 1st round pick.

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My TV listings say NHLN is showing one of my favorite Devils games of all time, game 7 of the 2000 ECF vs the Flyers.   I tuned in expecting to see Elias make Boucher his bitch and was instead greeted with 1994 ECF game 6 and 7 messier highlights.  That’s kind of cruel.  

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1 hour ago, aylbert said:

The two lotteries are connected.
If we just played the play-ins first, and then rank the losers in reverse order...  in the case the Penguins lose, they would get a 1% shot rather than a 3% chance (assuming they would be the best team to miss).

I definitely don't see the point of ranking the losers in reverse order [according to their regular season points %]? The advantage there to a team like the Canadiens is heightened when they're getting a shot at the playoffs while sitting far below the cutoff in the original standing and even if they lose they'll land on their feet. At the same time you make the format less appealing to a team like the Penguins, which had 15 more points than the Canadiens as of the last game of the season, and now have to risk getting bumped by the Habs and only have a 1% chance of winning the lottery. I don't think your plan passes a vote. The NHL has the right format, the question is, should they do it in one shot or two? Two is whatever to me. I'm sure they're just praying the Penguins don't end up with the top pick.

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3 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

I definitely don't see the point of ranking the losers in reverse order [according to their regular season points %]? The advantage there to a team like the Canadiens is heightened when they're getting a shot at the playoffs while sitting far below the cutoff in the original standing and even if they lose they'll land on their feet. At the same time you make the format less appealing to a team like the Penguins, which had 15 more points than the Canadiens as of the last game of the season, and now have to risk getting bumped by the Habs and only have a 1% chance of winning the lottery. I don't think your plan passes a vote. The NHL has the right format, the question is, should they do it in one shot or two? Two is whatever to me. I'm sure they're just praying the Penguins don't end up with the top pick.

well that's how it's always been isn't it? its like teams in the playoffs... all the teams losing in the first round will be ranked based by their standings in the season... then same thing for the 2nd round etc so it makes sense that they are doing it this way... what other way could they do it really?

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11 hours ago, Neb00rs said:

The worst part of it all, is that we might not have Devils hockey for a total of almost 11 months. But I mean, some of ya'll were begging for a break from the perennial sh!tshow anyway.

The worst thing that Nico and Jack lose a year of real hockey practice.

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10 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

the best case scenario for us would be

Montreal winning against Pittsburgh

Vancouver winning against Minny

Chicago winning against Edm

Nashville winning against Arizona

Then Vancouver losing in the first round.

That way the Arizona's pick would go from 10th to 8th. And we'd get the Vancouver 1st round pick.

I hate the fact that John Hynes again has a chance to really screw this team one last time. Ugh, of all the Punch Me Faces in this league, that man has caused me so many headaches that he’s right up there with Marchand...

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I try my best to understand how the lottery will work... and i kind of figure it out the big lines... 
But is there a chance that the Devils win the lottery on the first drawing (with their 7,5% of chance) ... having the first overall at this time. Just to lose it during the second drawing ? 

Damn i'm tired ... and will mostly wait all that to happen and will contemplate the devils position in the draft and that will be more than enough... (but just for the rollercoaster of frustration, my question of " can we get screwed during the second drawing?" is real)

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