2021 New York Mets season thread

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I'm never going to be a huge Stroman fan, but he couldn't have been more what the doctor ordered today.  Almost the entire BP will get a two much needed days of rest, with tomorrow's off-day.

And man that ballpark...Hoffman totally thought Smith's grand slam was a catchable fly ball coming off the bat...balls just fly out of that place.

And though I think next to nothing of Familia, at least he worked a clean inning and didn't let it turn into a 7-4 nailbiter (or pitch badly enough that another arm had to get into the game).

Nice long homestand coming up...12 games in 11 days.  Four against the Jays, five against the Braves (including a DH), and three against the Reds.  Would really be nice if they found a way to go better than 6-6 over these 12.  Braves have fallen to 4.5 back...they may be fighting for their lives by the time the Mets play them.  Would be nice to take, say, four out of five and just kill their hopes right then and there.  The Braves still haven't shown any ability to sustain anything...since taking two out of three against the Mets, they've gone a whopping 7-7 (with the second game of a DH to be played later today).  The Phillies are 10-5 in their last 15, but like we've pointed out, 15 games isn't long enough...they need to do that for at least ANOTHER 15 games...and hope for the Mets to skid.  Mets are 15-18 in their last 33, and were up 5 games before those games...now they're up 2.5 (Phillies have a game against the Yanks tonight).  So as meh as they've been, hasn't really hurt them too much.

In other good news, Phils and Braves play each other in a four game set, starting tomorrow night.  So at least we know that SOMEONE'S gonna lose every night.   

Edited July 22, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

So Phils get swept by the Yankees, fall to 3.5 back.  Braves trail by 4.5, Nats by 6.  

Still sticking with 88 wins for the Mets (and 89 for any of the teams chasing them to overtake them), so here's what the Mets need to do to get to 88, and for the teams behind them to get to 89):

Mets:  50-43 (38-31)

Phils:  47-47 (42-26)

Braves:  46-48 (43-25)

Nats:  45-50 (44-23)

The big question is can the friggin' Mets stop hovering around 7 games over .500 and just put one more nice burst together?  If they can reach the point where they can hover at around 12 games over for a while, it's really hard to imagine anyone in the East going on enough of a run to catch them.  I know the feeling is that somehow one of these teams (a lot of people seem to think it's the Braves) is going to get on a roll, but exactly WHEN does that happen?  The Braves have yet to spend a single day over .500 this season...at their best, they've been 12-12, 17-17, 24-24, 29-29, and 44-44.  I know there's a natural tendency for us to fear the Braves, but if anything, I'm more afraid of a Met slump/collapse, than I am of the Braves suddenly going on some 20-5 tear.  

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Jonathan Lucroy outrighted by Altanta today.

Milwaukee sure got out from under him at just the right time (he was 30 when they moved him...I absolutely wanted him at the time)...he had a fine career as a Brewer (.284/.342/.436, 110 OPS+, not bad at all for a catcher).  He finished off his best year in 2016 with a productive run for Texas, and then enjoyed a Colorado-induced surge later, in 2017...but since being dealt from the Brew Crew, he's slashed .249/.317/.350 (77 OPS+), while playing for EIGHT different teams.

The downside for the Brewers is that the players they got back have pretty much done nothing at all...everywhere they've played.  But at least they didn't stuck with an aging catcher who declined rather quickly once he reached his 30s.

 

And speaking of catchers, here's the comparison between McCann and Realmuto so far:

McCann:  79 GP, .251/.319/.381 (.699 OPS...career OPS is .694), 273 PA, 8 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 23 BB, 80 K 

Realmuto:  74 GP, .273/.367/.447 (.814 OPS...career OPS is .786), 294 PA, 13 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 33 BB, 67 K

Realmuto is clearly better, but kinda knew that going in.  Still wish the Mets had made a play for him, but Sandy took a mid-market approach to building the team, so McCann's the man.  

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Made a mistake before...only three games against the Jays.  Then five against the Braves and three against the Reds on this homestand that starts tomorrow.

Find a way to go 7-4 dammit.  Not like any of these opponents are beastly...wanna show you're a legit contender, and more than just a pretty good team in a bad division, do it now!

['7']

I'm gonna stop trying to figure this team out. 2021 just seems to be the year where absolutely nothing makes sense. About us...about the division. They crawl out of Pittsburgh tail between their legs making the Pitates look like the Big Red Machine...then they go to Cinci and take 2 of 3 from the Reds where most of the guys we had out on the mound were just random names pulled out of a hat

What's truly encouraging is that for the month of July the Mets offense as a whole has ranked much much better. Overall for the 2021 season yea they're still near the bottom of most things but all in all I'm feeling better about this team. And I've also stopped wishing and hoping that they get healthy...I just think this is one of those groups that will always be getting dinged up

That recent statement of faith and belief in Diaz is absolutely nauseating. And all of us already know that down the stretch in important September or God willing playoff games...Diaz will be the downfall of this season.

Really needed that from Stroman yesterday. He's had about 4 shaky starts in a row

Edited July 22, 2021 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

27 minutes ago, '7' said:

I'm gonna stop trying to figure this team out. 2021 just seems to be the year where absolutely nothing makes sense. About us...about the division. They crawl out of Pittsburgh tail between their legs making the Pitates look like the Big Red Machine...then they go to Cinci and take 2 of 3 from the Reds where most of the guys we had out on the mound were just random names pulled out of a hat

What's truly encouraging is that for the month of July the Mets offense as a whole has ranked much much better. Overall for the 2021 season yea they're still near the bottom of most things but all in all I'm feeling better about this team. And I've also stopped wishing and hoping that they get healthy...I just think this is one of those groups that will always be getting dinged up

That recent statement of faith and belief in Diaz is absolutely nauseating. And all of us already know that down the stretch in important September or God willing playoff games...Diaz will be the downfall of this season.

I think the Mets are going to find a way to make this all harder than it needs to be...the rest of the division can't seem to get out of its own way, yet the Mets can't seem to pull away...everyone's getting to hang around.  They have a way of playing to the level of their competition as well...I know the Pirates play hard, but they've now lost four in a row.

re:  the bolded...can't agree more.  For some reason they keep doubling and tripling down on Diaz...Kimbrel has been an absolute beast this year, and has been for much of his career (he was not good in 2019 and 2020, to be fair).  He's only signed through the end of 2022, so it's not like his money's some major problem.  I'm not sure that Diaz kills the regular season (I just don't think the anyone else in the East is going to do enough to overtake the Mets), but can I see him imploding the playoffs?  Absolutely.

I'm obviously not a Sandy guy in the slightest, and part of the reason I'm not a fan is that he's one of those guys who will find a way to come up short and not get over the hump.  There's GMs out there who I think would make a hell of an effort to get Bryant and Kimbrel in here (and acknowledge that Diaz has been too uneven here to be counted on)...who aren't forever kicking the can down the road and thinking about next year...not saying it's possible to be 100% all-in all of the time, but it's not like the Mets have this rich history of making the playoffs...who knows if they're going to contend in 2022?  deGrom isn't getting any younger and could very well be starting to break down right before our very eyes.  Is Stroman going to be back, and if he is, will he put up another sub-3.00 ERA?  Can Walker do this again?  This might be the season to strike.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Braves and Phils both now 47-48 (three straight losses for the Phils), both four behind the Mets.  

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Steven Matz on the mound for the Jays tonight.  One of those guys who hasn't been nearly as good as his record suggests (he's 8-4, team is 8-8 overall in his games).  Take out his first three starts, and here's his numbers:

13 starts, 63 IP (doesn't even average 5 IP per start), 78 H, 37 ER, 11 HR (1.57 per 9 IP), 15 BB, 60 K, 5.29 ERA, .295/.343/.481 slash against.  This is about as mediocre as it gets...he's clearly very hittable.

He managed 5 scoreless innings in his last start, but this guy is just not very good.  Don't let him become yet another "ex-Met kills his old team" story...jump on him early (and watch him fold up like the cheap tent he is), and take care of business.  

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Mets rumored to have interest in this guy (I had never heard of him):

Whit Merrifield Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

He seems like a classic small-ball kind of player...has speed (144 career stolen bases, including 25 this year), and compared to his peers, doesn't strike out that much (488 K in 3082 career PA...once per 6.3 AB...not exactly Tony Gwynn, but pretty good for this era).  Has a little pop, though not tons...plays in a lot of games (and can play all over the place).

At the plate over the last two seasons (which combined at this point equal about one full season, he's been somewhere between OK and pretty good):

154 GP, 678 PA, 621 AB, 92 R, 172 H, 33 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 81 RBI, 37 SB, .277/.323/.419 slash, 101 OPS+ 

Under team control through next season, on an incredibly team-friendly deal.  Has a team option for 2023:  Whit Merrifield Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

If anything, I'd say he's pretty good insurance in case Conforto walks.  He's not a kid (he'll be 33 next year), but his track record suggests a solid pro hitter, and he's incredibly versatile.  Depending on what it takes to get him, I'd be interested...I don't kid myself, it will likely take a blue-chip prospect who's not far away to get the Royals to pick up the phone.  

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

Well he’s almost Bartolo Colon years old and a bit more fragile but he’s still a competent ML arm so why not?

Edited July 23, 2021 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

12 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Well he’s almost Bartolo Colon years old and a bit more fragile but he’s still a competent ML arm so why not?

Ugh, sounds like TB is about to get the best of the Mets...getting out at just the right time from under Hill.  Hill has been very meh lately...his last 7 starts:  33.1 IP, 34 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 16 BB, 28 K, 5.40 ERA, .876 OB+SLG against.  It's a classic "throw it against the wall and hope it sticks" kind of move.  And given Hill's penchant for NOT eating up innings and making lots of starts, gotta wonder if he's wearing down.  

TB is known for making smart moves...if a contending team is willing to move on from him, it's fair to say that it's probably with very good reason.  As long as the Mets aren't giving much up, I guess I can kinda-sorta live with it.  Not exactly an exclamation point kind of move though.   

Edited July 23, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

Never heard of the prospect and I didn’t realize we still had Hunter lol

 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Tommy Hunter (reliever who made four appearances for the Mets in May) and minor league catcher Matt Dyer heading to Tampa.

Doesn't look like the Mets gave up much...Dyer is an overage A ball player who's hit for some power, but is hitting below .200 and striking out a lot...looks like he's pretty all-or-nothing (has drawn some walks).

Hunter is on the 60-day IL with a back issue that doesn't seem to be getting better.

Mets basically gave up little more than a bag of balls here, really...maybe Dyer turns into something someday (former 4th rounder), but seems to be a bit old to be so meh-ish in A ball.  I'm guessing he might be another Anthony Recker type, should he ever reach the bigs.

Seems like the Rays really wanted to dump Hill...again, raises red flags.  But I guess the first move is to shop in the bargain bins, then see where Carrasco and Syndergaard are in another week.  

Edited July 23, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

50 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Ugh, sounds like TB is about to get the best of the Mets...getting out at just the right time from under Hill.  Hill has been very meh lately...his last 7 starts:  33.1 IP, 34 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 16 BB, 28 K, 5.40 ERA, .876 OB+SLG against.  It's a classic "throw it against the wall and hope it sticks" kind of move.  And given Hill's penchant for NOT eating up innings and making lots of starts, gotta wonder if he's wearing down.  

TB is known for making smart moves...if a contending team is willing to move on from him, it's fair to say that it's probably with very good reason.  As long as the Mets aren't giving much up, I guess I can kinda-sorta live with it.  Not exactly an exclamation point kind of move though.   

I thought of the latter too and a lot of the decline you speak of took place since - wait for it - the spider tack crackdown. Still there’s always the financial considerations for Tampa plus the fact they churn out pitching depth. They aren’t really infallible though, they cleared out Willy Adames and he’s been raking in Milwaukee.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

What's funny is that Hill is not making much...he's on a one-year $2.5 million deal.  Mets are on the hook for just under $1 million...not like Tampa saved themselves all that much.  I'm guessing they might be shopping for a potential upgrade themselves?  Or maybe (I strongly suspect) that Hill without spider tack is a different beast, and Tampa saw that for themselves.

The Mets gave up so little that I can't really kill them too much about it...if anything, Hill is definitely a step up from sifting through waiver claims.  Who even knows if he's in the rotation for the rest of the year?  

Edited July 23, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

['7']

Maybe we've stumbled upon another Jamie Moyer type. Sometimes these soft tossin lefties just find a way to last and get guys out into their 40s. I hope he can 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

4 minutes ago, '7' said:

Maybe we've stumbled upon another Jamie Moyer type. Sometimes these soft tossin lefties just find a way to last and get guys out into their 40s. I hope he can 

One HUGE difference...Moyer threw 828.1 IP during his Age 40-43 seasons alone.  Hill has thrown 1071.1 IP for his entire CAREER (Moyer threw over 4000 IP for his career).  Hill has thrown over 100 IP just four times in his career (and only once over 135.2)...he's managed to hang around a long time and has had some success, but durable and dependable he ain't.

Moyer had such a kooky career...it didn't really start to happen for him until he was 33 (he was very up and down prior)...but somehow he went 187-109 with a 4.05 ERA from his Age 33-45 seasons...his individual numbers weren't mindblowing by any means, but he kept his walks down and just kind of found a way to pitch well enough to win...a lot of pitchers would've killed for just that part of his career.  He threw a total of 2630 innings over those 13 seasons...damned impressive stuff.   

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Megill has really been a nice story so far…now two straight starts where he’s provided 6 scoreless innings.

Phils four back, Braves trail by 5.

And suffice it to say that Pete’s found his power stroke…10 HRs in his last 22 GP, to go with a 1.019 OPS.  Now has 21 dingers on the season.  

Edited July 24, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

On 7/21/2021 at 3:35 PM, NJDevs4978 said:

Eight innings, one hit that should do it lol

We need Stroman to be somewhere closer to what he was early in the season than he was the previous few starts, especially with Jake on the shelf.  And I can't say I'm confident Walker will last the whole season at least fatigue-wise either after his recent injury history.

Did the gods have to prove me right the NEXT BLOODY START? 

Edited July 25, 2021 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Pretty good start by Hill…Jays were making plenty of contact against him.  I know he didn’t throw a lot of pitches heading into the sixth, but he seems like the kind of guy that gives you five solid, you call it a day and hope your pen can do the rest.

Alonso’s plenty good run continues…guy is really on fire.  

Edited July 25, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

['7']

So now David Peterson has what's called a "Jones Fracture" in his foot. Looking like 6-8 weeks. Apparently he was just walking and felt a pop...because of course he did.

['7']

Terrified at the thought of Diaz entering this game

Hill was alright. Crumbled in the 6th but it happens. The Jays get paid to hit too and Hill certainly looks like he has something left in the tank and can contribute

Game is far from over but impressed with the Mets immediately battling back...and with Lugo stabilizing things when it looked like the game may get away from us. Alonso is carry us right now...just what I wanted to see from him

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I think Hill is what he is.  Just hope you get five good innings from him and be careful about looking for more.

The guy to worry about right now is Walker.  Really looks like he might be wearing down.

Braves lose, Phils and Braves do exactly what you would’ve expected…split their series.

And you just KNEW that McCann getting thrown out in that double steal attempt would come back to bite the Mets.  And you just never know what May is going to give you any given game.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Even if Diaz somehow gets this done…good lord, it is so rarely ever easy for him.

Well he did it…but yikes.

Braves trail by five games.  If the Mets can take three out of five against them, I will absolutely be thrilled with that.  That’ll put the Braves six back with five more games having ticked off the schedule.

And suffice it to say that the Nats, who are now 8 games under .500 and 8 games back after getting swept by the friggin’ ORIOLES, are officially toast.  Would be fun if they managed to win some games against the Phils though.  

Edited July 25, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

On another note, Harvey out of nowhere has suddenly turned in two terrific outings in a row.  Wonder if some team tries to get him at the deadline (as a “What the hell, why not?” move)…he shouldn’t cost much.  

Edited July 25, 2021 by Colorado Rockies 1976