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NHL 2021 Draft Lottery Live Watch Thread, 6/2 7PM


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1 minute ago, WaffleFries said:

This is the kind of advanced stats everyone here can get behind

We have the fourth pick but it’s an anticipated second pick, so we’re all set. 

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Not sure how Clarke has the highest star probability AND NHL probability but not perceived as a better prospect than Power in this particular ranking

https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2021/5/25/22450157/what-type-of-prospects-would-supplement-the-devils-prospect-pool

  • #1 Owen Power (Michigan - Big10): 26 GP 3-13-16, +18, 6 PIM, 7% Star Probability, 62% NHLer Probability
  • #2 Brandt Clarke (HC Nove Zamky - Slovakia): 26 GP 5-10-15, +6, 41 PIM, 56% Star Probability, 80% NHLer Probability
  • #4 Luke Hughes (USNTDP - USDP/USHL): 38 USDP GP 6-28-34, 14 PIM; 18 USHL GP 4-11-15, +5, 8 PIM, 7% Star Probability, 62% NHLer Probability
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1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

Not sure how Clarke has the highest star probability AND NHL probability but not perceived as a better prospect than Power in this particular ranking

https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2021/5/25/22450157/what-type-of-prospects-would-supplement-the-devils-prospect-pool

  • #1 Owen Power (Michigan - Big10): 26 GP 3-13-16, +18, 6 PIM, 7% Star Probability, 62% NHLer Probability
  • #2 Brandt Clarke (HC Nove Zamky - Slovakia): 26 GP 5-10-15, +6, 41 PIM, 56% Star Probability, 80% NHLer Probability
  • #4 Luke Hughes (USNTDP - USDP/USHL): 38 USDP GP 6-28-34, 14 PIM; 18 USHL GP 4-11-15, +5, 8 PIM, 7% Star Probability, 62% NHLer Probability

because it’s an sbnation website

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I shudder to think how they figure out a guy’s Star Probability and NHL Probability. 

My guess is as long as he doesn’t show significant improvement, lead the team in scoring and make it look like the game is slowing down for him more and more every game, he probably does pretty well with the star rating and advanced stats 

Edited by Lateralous
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19 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I shudder to think how they figure out a guy’s Star Probability and NHL Probability. 

Star Probability - measure from the a$$hole out

NHL Probability - measure shaft only

It's a very key/specific/deadly accurate metric

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36 minutes ago, titans04 said:

Star Probability - measure from the a$$hole out

NHL Probability - measure shaft only

It's a very key/specific/deadly accurate metric

Seems right. 

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3 hours ago, titans04 said:

Star Probability - measure from the a$$hole out

NHL Probability - measure shaft only

It's a very key/specific/deadly accurate metric

 

2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Seems right. 

I can't believe the two of you are completely disregarding the Randy Marsh, TMI Formula... for shame

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10 minutes ago, Crisis said:

Craig Button did his first mock draft..

1. Buffalo - Power
2. Seattle - Beniers
3. Anaheim - Guenther
4. NJ - Clarke
...
8. LA - Hughes

https://www.tsn.ca/michigan-mock-button-has-power-to-sabres-beniers-to-seattle-johnson-a-canuck-1.1648638

It's been shown time and time again that Button really doesn't.. know... much of anything, right?

Or am I thinking of someone else.

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6 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

It's been shown time and time again that Button really doesn't.. know... much of anything, right?

Or am I thinking of someone else.

image.thumb.png.9efb8a2b091057cb64eb584e4a784e97.png

Here is last year's.  He didn't do too bad up top.

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6 minutes ago, Crisis said:

image.thumb.png.9efb8a2b091057cb64eb584e4a784e97.png

Here is last year's.  He didn't do too bad up top.

Up top, of course, being the easier part to get right. 

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40 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

It's been shown time and time again that Button really doesn't.. know... much of anything, right?

Or am I thinking of someone else.

I've always been very unsure of Button ever since he said we would go with a forward and pass on Larsson and Hamilton at 4 in 2011 even though right handed defense was a huge need for us. He had Larsson going to Ottawa at 6

I get the feeling he focuses his analysis on Canadian teams and the big market American teams and didn't go into too much depth with the other franchises. 

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20 minutes ago, Crisis said:

Well that's the only part we are concerned about.

I’m just saying, in terms of whether a guy is good at ranking the draft, you can’t just look at the top part, because  I bet a lot of the experts have that part ranked identically. 

Perhaps not every year, and probably not this year. 

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Posted (edited)

Naturally we get a top 5 pick in a draft year where not only is there not a sure-fire consensus/lock for the #1 pick, but that the entire top 10 is pretty all-over the place.  It doesn't mean that there isn't a good player to be had in our position, but it still does temper my expectations a bit in regards to whomever we pick.

On the flip side, the top 10 this year is pretty heavy on D-mean compared to recent past drafts, and they are often harder to gauge due to the nature of their position (smaller glamour numbers).  Who knows.

Edited by DevsMan84
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1 hour ago, DevsMan84 said:

Naturally we get a top 5 pick in a draft year where not only is there not a sure-fire consensus/lock for the #1 pick, but that the entire top 10 is pretty all-over the place.  It doesn't mean that there isn't a good player to be had in our position, but it still does temper my expectations a bit in regards to whomever we pick.

On the flip side, the top 10 this year is pretty heavy on D-mean compared to recent past drafts, and they are often harder to gauge due to the nature of their position (smaller glamour numbers).  Who knows.

It’s a bad year to pick first or second, but it’s a good year to pick later. Top-4 defensemen are better than year ago. May be Drysdale is better as one perspective D, but Clarke, Power, Hughes, Edvinsson are more interesting than Drysdale, Sanderson, Guhle and Schneider. Eklund has way more highlight year than Raymond and Holtz, Guenther isn’t worser than Quinn, Johnson was compare with Perfetti in tools(iq, hands, slowness), but he is bigger. Last year top three were better than this year, but I don’t think top-10 this year is worser. 10-12 prospects are pretty good and have good potential to be nhlers. Devils are in better position to draft better player this year in top-10.

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17 hours ago, Guadana said:

It’s a bad year to pick first or second, but it’s a good year to pick later. Top-4 defensemen are better than year ago. May be Drysdale is better as one perspective D, but Clarke, Power, Hughes, Edvinsson are more interesting than Drysdale, Sanderson, Guhle and Schneider. Eklund has way more highlight year than Raymond and Holtz, Guenther isn’t worser than Quinn, Johnson was compare with Perfetti in tools(iq, hands, slowness), but he is bigger. Last year top three were better than this year, but I don’t think top-10 this year is worser. 10-12 prospects are pretty good and have good potential to be nhlers. Devils are in better position to draft better player this year in top-10.

I think i,d prefer johnson to Eklund personally. But i'm scared he may be another Drouin who looked like a magician in juniors but can't get it together in the NHL

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3 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

I think i,d prefer johnson to Eklund personally. But i'm scared he may be another Drouin who looked like a magician in juniors but can't get it together in the NHL

I saw a lot of Eklund and he is electric. I dont like Johnson. He is too slow on my taste, and we have enough of potential playmakers. But I’m not a fan of another small Swede. I would say Eklund play like a faster Bratt. But we have our own Bratt. I can’t say I will be disappointed if we will draft him, but I want something different. My ideal first rounders are Clarke and Morrow/Ceulemans. I’m not a fan of Hughes pick, but If we have a choice between him and Eklund/Johnson, we should draft Jack’s brother. 

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37 minutes ago, Guadana said:

I saw a lot of Eklund and he is electric. I dont like Johnson. He is too slow on my taste, and we have enough of potential playmakers. But I’m not a fan of another small Swede. I would say Eklund play like a faster Bratt. But we have our own Bratt. I can’t say I will be disappointed if we will draft him, but I want something different. My ideal first rounders are Clarke and Morrow/Ceulemans. I’m not a fan of Hughes pick, but If we have a choice between him and Eklund/Johnson, we should draft Jack’s brother. 

yeah i also just don't feel like Eklund is the player we need or bringing us to the next level

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