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Draft pick value


AEWHistory

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I found a really cool article analyzing the value of draft picks and position.  Here is the article:

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

A few things I took away from this was that 2nd and 3rd round picks were a bit more valuable than I realized.  It really makes losing our 2nd this year all the more galling.  We need every opportunity to get some talent that we can get and that was a decent pick.  Sadly, it was almost as good as the Islanders pick will turn out to be.

Another thing that hit me was the odd little aberrations in certain draft positions.  In theory you’re better off drafting 18th instead of 17th for example.  Of course this is just an aberration and would even out with time, but still interesting.  Wasn’t Parise an 18th pick?

Anyway, with little to talk about right now hopefully this will give everyone something to discuss.  Have at it....

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2 minutes ago, AEWHistory said:

I found a really cool article analyzing the value of draft picks and position.  Here is the article:

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

A few things I took away from this was that 2nd and 3rd round picks were a bit more valuable than I realized.  It really makes losing our 2nd this year all the more galling.  We need every opportunity to get some talent that we can get and that was a decent pick.  Sadly, it was almost as good as the Islanders pick will turn out to be.

Another thing that hit me was the odd little aberrations in certain draft positions.  In theory you’re better off drafting 18th instead of 17th for example.  Of course this is just an aberration and would even out with time, but still interesting.  Wasn’t Parise an 18th pick?

Anyway, with little to talk about right now hopefully this will give everyone something to discuss.  Have at it....

You raised, addressed and resolved your own observation; but Parise was a 17th pick :)

Since this analysis looked at 2000-09 drafts, the sample size was really small.    He actually had them both at 70% chances (or really observed), you were looking at the moving average (which was recovering from some bad 15th overall picks)

I went back and checked the math, and that played out as well.

image.png.36afea0abf4daf1fd9cc002abce3da79.png

 

 

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27 minutes ago, aylbert said:

You raised, addressed and resolved your own observation; but Parise was a 17th pick :)

Since this analysis looked at 2000-09 drafts, the sample size was really small.    He actually had them both at 70% chances (or really observed), you were looking at the moving average (which was recovering from some bad 15th overall picks)

I went back and checked the math, and that played out as well.

image.png.36afea0abf4daf1fd9cc002abce3da79.png

 

 

He was 17th!?  LOL!  Yea, I guess that does sorta mess up that point.

I noticed that he only looked at 2000-2009 as well.  I’d have preferred he look at something more like 1980 to 2010.  That would’ve been a much better sampling and would likely have smoothed out the aberrations.  OTOH, if others appeared that would be fascinating.  It would also be interesting to compare each decade as well.  As it is, he is looking at one of the weakest  periods in the history of the NHL I suspect.  There were some truly great players that entered the league in that time but it seemed like there was an awful lot of crappy drafts with modest talent.  Or maybe it was just seems that way because the Devils couldn’t find talent for most of that decade....

Anyway, hopefully other people will do a better job of finding interesting nuggets to discuss in this article.

 

Edited by AEWHistory
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