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The Jack Hughes Contract Extension Thread


mfitz804
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Jack presents us with an interesting situation that I don't believe we (or anyone) has ever been exposed to before. 

Jack signed his 3 year entry level deal like everyone. Then his rookie season was cut short by Coronavirus. Then his second year was shortened by the virus. We basically got a little more than two half-seasons for the first two years of his entry level contract.

Based on that, I feel Jack's development has been slowed. He lost out on nearly half a season of experience between the two years. And we "lost out" on two RFA years. 

Now, going into Year 3, its time that we can talk about a contract extension. Which sounds completely weird, because two years went by so fast. 

The question is, what does Jack get for his next contract? He has clearly not shown himself to be an NHL star at present. He has shown enough development between seasons 1 and 2 that you have to assume he will get there. But what do you use as a basis to pay him? What he's shown, or what he will most likely show? If I am paying him based on what he's done, he's a $5-6m player at best. If you are paying him based on where you expect he'll be by the end of the extension, he's a more expensive player. 

What the heck kind of offer will he be expecting and what offer will we make?

As far as term goes, it has to be whatever the max is. I assume for RFA's its the same 8 years you can offer a UFA. That would give us 4 of his UFA years, which is the absolute best you can do and the longest you can lock him up from now. 

As far as dollars go, I am at a loss. My gut says "give him what Nico got", but I think Jack's upside is higher and he may wind up very underpaid if that is what we do. 

What do you think?

 

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Nico got his after his third NHL season; and I think discussing Jack’s contract now is a little bit useless and a lot a bit premature. If he has a huge year, the Devils will probably try to give him a 7/8 year deal. If he has another year with flashes of brilliance and patches of disappearance, it benefits both sides to go for a bridge type contract. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Nico got his after his third NHL season; and I think discussing Jack’s contract now is a little bit useless and a lot a bit premature. If he has a huge year, the Devils will probably try to give him a 7/8 year deal. If he has another year with flashes of brilliance and patches of disappearance, it benefits both sides to go for a bridge type contract. 

Fair enough, there isn't any kind of rush to do it. I am very interested to see what he can accomplish in year 3 in what should be a full season under normal circumstances (i.e. playing games against non-divisional opponents, etc.).

As far as discussing it being "useless", I have to disagree. Its the offseason and there is barely anything to talk about, and I would rather talk about something than nothing.

Premature? Probably. But wouldn't it benefit the team to consider it now rather than waiting to see if Jack has a monster year? Let's say this is his breakout year, he has 80+ points and we make teh playoffs on teh last day of the season. Does that put him in a position to expect more money than if the extension were signed now? Or would he just refuse to entertain it?

Edited by mfitz804
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6 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Nico got his after his third NHL season; and I think discussing Jack’s contract now is a little bit useless and a lot a bit premature. If he has a huge year, the Devils will probably try to give him a 7/8 year deal. If he has another year with flashes of brilliance and patches of disappearance, it benefits both sides to go for a bridge type contract. 

Nico actually signed very early into his third season:  Hischier signs seven-year contract with Devils (nhl.com)

But I agree, I don't think Jack is in the same position to do so...he might as well play out his third season, and hope for another year of improvement (and yeah, if he improves by leaps and bounds, 7+ years sounds about right).  I don't think he's done enough over his first two seasons to get much more than a bridge deal (say 3-4 years at $4 - 5 million per...no, if I'm Jack, I bet on myself too, and play out this season)...if Year 3 isn't great, that bridge deal will still be there for him regardless.  

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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3 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Thank you for providing that, I thought it was before he went RFA...

And I agree, in that if Jack signed right now for what Nico got, that would represent a serious bargain in time.  And I also agree that it will be nice to hopefully see Jack get in a proper NHL season, without Covid interruptions and playing in at least 75 games.  At least with Nico, we were able to get a reasonable read on him after his first two years (151 GP, 99 Pts), where we saw what he signed for and thought it made sense.  Like you said in your OP, it's pretty difficult to come up with a offer for Jack at the moment...just feels like there's not nearly enough data to base an offer on.    

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8 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

And I agree, in that if Jack signed right now for what Nico got, that would represent a serious bargain in time.  And I also agree that it will be nice to hopefully see Jack get in a proper NHL season, without Covid interruptions and playing in at least 75 games.  At least with Nico, we were able to get a reasonable read on him after his first two years (151 GP, 99 Pts), where we saw what he signed for and thought it made sense.  Like you said in your OP, it's pretty difficult to come up with a offer for Jack at the moment...just feels like there's not nearly enough data to base an offer on.    

That’s why I’m thinking from the team’s perspective, it’s a better idea to do it from now. Granted you’re taking a risk, maybe a little bigger of a risk given that the sample size of what he has done is smaller, but maybe less of a risk than Nico because his upside seems higher. 

Based on history and the fact that Nico got his deal when he did, I have to assume it’s something the team is at least starting g to think about. 

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1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

That’s why I’m thinking from the team’s perspective, it’s a better idea to do it from now. Granted you’re taking a risk, maybe a little bigger of a risk given that the sample size of what he has done is smaller, but maybe less of a risk than Nico because his upside seems higher. 

Based on history and the fact that Nico got his deal when he did, I have to assume it’s something the team is at least starting to think about. 

It all depends on how much they believe in Jack at this point.  I would probably go for it myself, in offering him Nico money...but I'm guessing both sides feel that it's too risky...I'm guessing Jack's side is thinking a big year gets him into $8+ per year territory.  And Fitz probably feels like he doesn't have quite enough to go on yet.  I get the feeling they check in with each other and talk a little, but not much more until after the season.

Of course, if Luke gets drafted, maybe that somehow changes things.  

 

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6 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

That’s why I’m thinking from the team’s perspective, it’s a better idea to do it from now. Granted you’re taking a risk, maybe a little bigger of a risk given that the sample size of what he has done is smaller, but maybe less of a risk than Nico because his upside seems higher. 

Based on history and the fact that Nico got his deal when he did, I have to assume it’s something the team is at least starting g to think about. 

That's a good point.  It feels (I don't even know what that means) like he is about to breakout.  I guess just based on what we saw in flashes this past season.  Putting pen to paper now might secure a bargain of a contract.  I've been in the mindset that the Devils are really on the brink of finding out what exactly they have and I have been a proponent of not throwing dough at FAs this offseason (unless it's a big ol' D which we are desperately yearning for) because a few of the young guns are really starting to get it going post-Hynes.  It would be a travesty to handcuff ourselves when we are this close to finding out what we actually have been building.  And I understand that point can be argued either way because we don't actually know how much everyone will be deserving so maybe it wouldn't matter, but wouldn't it be a damn shame if the forwards put it together and now we are short on cash to throw at say Jones next offseason?  I just feel like we would be wasting the prime years of an expensive UFA forward if you sign them too early to compete.

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27 minutes ago, Crisis said:

That's a good point.  It feels (I don't even know what that means) like he is about to breakout.  I guess just based on what we saw in flashes this past season.  Putting pen to paper now might secure a bargain of a contract.

I would also be very interested to see how such an offer would be handled by Jack's camp. I mean here you are, 2 years in with 52 points in 117 games, are you in a position to strongarm the team into waiting until after you see if you explode in season 3 if they are interested in getting it done sooner?

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I'm very interested to see how this goes - off the top of my head I can't think of many 1OA picks that went the bridge deal route... but I think unless he absolutely looks like a stud this year it might make the most sense for both sides, as others here have said already.

I wouldn't give Jack Nico's contract right now, given what we've seen.  Not yet.

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A 2 yr bridge deal after next season to keep Jack in RFA and see his “true worth” is probably what is gonna happen. After that, if he becomes what we know he can, we’ll pay him big time for 8 yrs. Either that, or he’ll get a 8 year deal right out the gate.

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14 minutes ago, Devs3cups said:

A 2 yr bridge deal after next season to keep Jack in RFA and see his “true worth” is probably what is gonna happen. After that, if he becomes what we know he can, we’ll pay him big time for 8 yrs. Either that, or he’ll get a 8 year deal right out the gate.

That’s a pretty significant “either or”, in my opinion. It could be the difference of having him for 8 years at a club friendly price or having to pay him the sun and the moon. 

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

That’s a pretty significant “either or”, in my opinion. It could be the difference of having him for 8 years at a club friendly price or having to pay him the sun and the moon. 

Yeah the Subban situation is similar in a way. Cause Subban wanted to sign his long term contract (like nico did) right after his ELC but Bergevin didn't want that and was pushing for the bridge contract. Back then I was like "sign your bridge contract and stop being such a princess PK) but turns out and in hindsight that was the wrong approach cause then the lockout happened. MTL didn't play a single game against the West, PK was not playing on the PK, not playing against top lines, not sent out on defensive faceoffs deployment and was not out there to protect leads late in games.... yet he somehow won the norris in his contract year so THEN he signed his huge and wildly overpaid contract.

So with that in mind, if we can somehow convince him to sign a Nico type of deal BEFORE he breaks out, it would be ideal, but i suspect his agent would rather wait

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35 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

So with that in mind, if we can somehow convince him to sign a Nico type of deal BEFORE he breaks out, it would be ideal, but i suspect his agent would rather wait

I suspect so as well, the question is whether they have the balls to "hold out" on a contract offer when the kid has played only a little more than one season worth of games. That would be pretty ballsy, depending on the offer. 

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I hope we can get Jack locked down for 8 years next summer assuming he makes the expected jump in on ice performance this season, but before the full breakout.   Between the flat cap and signing him early it has to potential to be a real bargain later on when he's in his prime.  Kind of like MacKinnon.     

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On 7/13/2021 at 11:56 AM, Devilsfan118 said:

I wouldn't give Jack Nico's contract right now, given what we've seen.  Not yet.

Id do that right now in a heartbeat.. Kid controls the game when on the ice.. Surround him with talent

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