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Well, it certainly is an absolutely crazy real estate market right now. Can I put some perspective on this market?

We bought our first home in 1975. A charming place with 2 small bedrooms but a fantastic fireplace in Point Pleasant Boro. Three years later, and with 2 sons we decided to get a bigger place, still in Point Boro, since Pt Pleasant Beach was always 20% higher. Anyway, in1979 it took us nine months to sell the place. That was when mortgage rates were 9%, that's NINE PERCENT.  

I've seen collapses in home prices. 1987, 2009. It isn't pretty. But the bubble in home prices isn't a NJ anomaly. My niece took a job in central Michigan and she and her husband were in the same situation recounted here, where listings disappeared in days going for well above asking price. Reminds me of 2007-2008, where I saw clients selling homes and buyers closing with 100% financing, seller concessions, and walking out of the closing with more cash than they came in with. Now, that was crazy.

In a couple of years baby boomers will start to die, leaving lots of pretty homes their kids will want to offload at bargain prices. And a lot of those boomers still have mortgages on their homes. HELOCs to pay for kid college tuition, mostly.

Two years ago a tax client was struggling with his daughters' college loans. He was a lower level GM forced retiree working as a bartender. Those guys got royally screwed. Anyway, I told him to call me in May to discuss his options. Sure enough, he called me in May......

He had hit the NJ lottery for $150,000. I ran the numbers and he could pay off those collage loans, pay the tax on the winnings and still be about $10,000 to the good. The best lottery story I have.

Another client won $10,800,000, and really didn't need the money. It caused a lot of grief between him and his sons.

So, MB, be patient. You can still find stories about the folks who lost their homes in the Great Depression, and the guys who bought the homes were the guys who were renting from them.

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16 hours ago, Satans Hockey said:

Everyone I know loves it too, some of them are saving 20 hours a week in commutes now and they can't believe they use to actually waste almost an entire day on commuting each week. It's insane looking back at it. 

Not to be too much of a tree loving hippie but work from home for people who can do it and have no reason to be in an office is an easy way to people off the roads and make our planet greener.

Obviously there are many jobs that people simply can't work from home but at least giving the option for everyone should be the way forward for many settings. The only people I know who have bosses who are firmly against wfh are very old or have owners who are very old and simply don't trust people that will actually work from home without pointless micro management. My friends who are stuck at those places have either quit or are currently looking for other jobs. Eventually that will end when those ignorant bosses/owners either leave the work force or die out. 

Another reason is that companies have spent a ton of $ on office buildings and other infrastructure over the years and are hating the fact that it may be money down the toilet at this point.

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My office, 2 months ago, sent an e-mail around saying "okkkkkkk we're going to transition everyone back into the office, let us know your thoughts on when we should do this!". I said that I loved the company, I love my job, I love my responsibility but if I'm ever forced into a brick-and-mortar building again I would immediately resign. Apparently they heard the same thing from another few employees and have decided to keep the WFH going. 

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quick update, we're now up to 0-for-15. Meh looking townhouse, we offered $30k over and agreed to cover any difference between appraisal and sale out of pocket. Someone offered $50k over, all cash. 

This is fun. I'm having fun. 

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14 hours ago, point said:

Well, it certainly is an absolutely crazy real estate market right now. Can I put some perspective on this market?

We bought our first home in 1975. A charming place with 2 small bedrooms but a fantastic fireplace in Point Pleasant Boro. Three years later, and with 2 sons we decided to get a bigger place, still in Point Boro, since Pt Pleasant Beach was always 20% higher. Anyway, in1979 it took us nine months to sell the place. That was when mortgage rates were 9%, that's NINE PERCENT.  

They reached over 16% in 1981.  Insane that it got THAT high.

We paid off our 15-year fixed in 6.5 years...we were all done as of December 2019.  Our rate was 3.125%...doubt we EVER see that again.  Really hoping to not have to sell until my daughter is settled at college (still has 8th grade and high school to churn through), but should it come to that, there will be money for each of us to buy our own places...not without some serious downsizing though (not that our current house is huge...it's more "efficient".  Two-story colonial with a walk-out basement...the basement came finished, save for a decent-sized storage room, so it feels more like a three-story house...no dramatic high-ceiling entrance like you see with most McMansion houses these days, and most of the rooms aren't particularly large...that's why I call it "efficient").  But hard to imagine that unless we go REALLY cheap on each of our homes, that we won't need new mortgages for whatever we would buy.  

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4 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Nothing like offering $30k over asking price for a meh townhouse. 

yeah unfortunately we're backed into a corner. baby coming soon, no place to live in 2 months, and if we stay here we're paying infinitely over market value and locked into an annual lease. it's a rock and a hard place. 

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51 minutes ago, MB3 said:

yeah unfortunately we're backed into a corner. baby coming soon, no place to live in 2 months, and if we stay here we're paying infinitely over market value and locked into an annual lease. it's a rock and a hard place. 

I feel for you, my man. However nice your current place is, its about to become WAY smaller. I hope you have better luck. 

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2 hours ago, MB3 said:

yeah unfortunately we're backed into a corner. baby coming soon, no place to live in 2 months, and if we stay here we're paying infinitely over market value and locked into an annual lease. it's a rock and a hard place. 

Oh, that really sucks. Not a time frame to wait out the market.

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It's insane and I feel for you guys that are stuck looking to buy in this market.  It's absolutely insane here in Seaside Park people paying 500k for knock downs just for the 50x100 lot.  A lot we paid 250k for in 2016.  There's people paying as others have pointed out up to 100k+ over asking prices on almost every listing.  Our neighbor is a agent with a relatively small real estate co says the bidding wars start before the signs even go up on most properties just within their office.

The builder we used builds one model house, one house at a time. So we closed 4 years ago this week, the last one he finished about 4 months ago 10 streets over same exact lot location relative to the ocean/bay and it sold for 515k more and the finishes inside were much more builder grade.  People are buying houses that haven't been raised (so they can't get mortgages) for these crazy  prices too so they're essentially paying cash.  Some of the bigger realtors are buying up houses and lots like crazy 7 on this beach block alone, they knocked everything down and those "new" houses which were just floor plans were all sold in no time at insane prices. So even though times are tough somehow the housing market is crazed and honestly I don't understand the math here.

Try to not get too discouraged, we had to bring a 45k check to our first "sale" because the bottom fell out of the market.  Some times treading water while far from ideal is better than getting in over your head.

   

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1 hour ago, point said:

There will be a lot of misery when mortgage rates go up, even if only by a point.

Rates are climbing now - thankfully we locked in near the relative bottom last week (2.9%, no points, ridiculous) but yeah.. if rates climb into the 4% range people are going to be scared off.

I'm going to uninstall every real estate app on my phone once we close.  I absolutely know we're going to see our value drop if we look 6 months from now.

  

19 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

I’m no real estate expert, but how the fvck can these types of market conditions continue? It doesn’t make any sense. Eventually the ‘bubble’ (if that’s what this even is) will pop again and people are gonna be in a world of hurt.

Bracing for it already.

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So i mentioned working on this Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" guitar replica awhile ago. It's pretty much done now.

So this is a personal side project i've been working on for awhile. Being a movie props replica collector and huge music fan. I decided that I wanted to make a Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" replica, as this is the most iconic guitar to me. I was 10 when Green Day - Dookie came out and it changed my life, still my favourite album of all time. It got me into punk music and it made me realize how you can mix music and art together. I know that album artwork by heart and i really don't think i'd be a graphic designer / illustrator designing album artworks if it wasn't for Green Day - Dookie. So very important project for me.
 
I've always known the history of Blue, how his mom worked overtime to buy the guitar from his guitar teacher, etc How he changed the pickups many times and when (especially after the mud destroyed his JB SH4 at woodstock haha and kind of followed that guitar through the years as he's still using it to this day. It went through a lot of changes, neck, pickups, stickers, etc etc but i wanted to replicate the specific '94 version he had during Lolapalooza and Woodstock. Found a bunch of references shots and videos and went to town haha Luckily i'm a designer so i could design the stickers that i couldnt find myself too haha Some were pretty obscure.
 
I've literally never done this before so it was pretty challenging and I had to learn a lot of sh!t on the fly but it was an absolute blast to do. Just trying to figure out how to start with something completely new and make it look like it's been around for 30 years. Learned a lot of fun tricks, like heating the guitar with a heat gun and then spray it with a freeze spray to make the paint crack, etc etc

as @mfitz804 requested awhile back, here's some progress and display pics

https://www.flickr.com/gp/145856245@N05/e9jL42

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

So i mentioned working on this Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" guitar replica awhile ago. It's pretty much done now.

So this is a personal side project i've been working on for awhile. Being a movie props replica collector and huge music fan. I decided that I wanted to make a Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" replica, as this is the most iconic guitar to me. I was 10 when Green Day - Dookie came out and it changed my life, still my favourite album of all time. It got me into punk music and it made me realize how you can mix music and art together. I know that album artwork by heart and i really don't think i'd be a graphic designer / illustrator designing album artworks if it wasn't for Green Day - Dookie. So very important project for me.
 
I've always known the history of Blue, how his mom worked overtime to buy the guitar from his guitar teacher, etc How he changed the pickups many times and when (especially after the mud destroyed his JB SH4 at woodstock haha and kind of followed that guitar through the years as he's still using it to this day. It went through a lot of changes, neck, pickups, stickers, etc etc but i wanted to replicate the specific '94 version he had during Lolapalooza and Woodstock. Found a bunch of references shots and videos and went to town haha Luckily i'm a designer so i could design the stickers that i couldnt find myself too haha Some were pretty obscure.
 
I've literally never done this before so it was pretty challenging and I had to learn a lot of sh!t on the fly but it was an absolute blast to do. Just trying to figure out how to start with something completely new and make it look like it's been around for 30 years. Learned a lot of fun tricks, like heating the guitar with a heat gun and then spray it with a freeze spray to make the paint crack, etc etc

as @mfitz804 requested awhile back, here's some progress and display pics

https://www.flickr.com/gp/145856245@N05/e9jL42

 

 

 

That’s fvcking awesome SD, great work!

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16 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

So i mentioned working on this Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" guitar replica awhile ago. It's pretty much done now.

So this is a personal side project i've been working on for awhile. Being a movie props replica collector and huge music fan. I decided that I wanted to make a Billie Joe Armstrong "Blue" replica, as this is the most iconic guitar to me. I was 10 when Green Day - Dookie came out and it changed my life, still my favourite album of all time. It got me into punk music and it made me realize how you can mix music and art together. I know that album artwork by heart and i really don't think i'd be a graphic designer / illustrator designing album artworks if it wasn't for Green Day - Dookie. So very important project for me.
 
I've always known the history of Blue, how his mom worked overtime to buy the guitar from his guitar teacher, etc How he changed the pickups many times and when (especially after the mud destroyed his JB SH4 at woodstock haha and kind of followed that guitar through the years as he's still using it to this day. It went through a lot of changes, neck, pickups, stickers, etc etc but i wanted to replicate the specific '94 version he had during Lolapalooza and Woodstock. Found a bunch of references shots and videos and went to town haha Luckily i'm a designer so i could design the stickers that i couldnt find myself too haha Some were pretty obscure.
 
I've literally never done this before so it was pretty challenging and I had to learn a lot of sh!t on the fly but it was an absolute blast to do. Just trying to figure out how to start with something completely new and make it look like it's been around for 30 years. Learned a lot of fun tricks, like heating the guitar with a heat gun and then spray it with a freeze spray to make the paint crack, etc etc

as @mfitz804 requested awhile back, here's some progress and display pics

https://www.flickr.com/gp/145856245@N05/e9jL42

 

IMG_9261.MOV 72.25 MB · 1 download  

 

 

Someone is going to find that in like 80 years time and be like " how did Sterio get hold of Billy Joe's guitar? " And then rapidly trying to get an auction valuation. 

Incredible work dude. 

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52 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Someone is going to find that in like 80 years time and be like " how did Sterio get hold of Billy Joe's guitar? " And then rapidly trying to get an auction valuation. 

Incredible work dude. 

I think they’ll assume he “borrowed” it at one of those meet and greets he is always doing. 

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4 hours ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Someone is going to find that in like 80 years time and be like " how did Sterio get hold of Billy Joe's guitar? " And then rapidly trying to get an auction valuation. 

Incredible work dude. 

Considering a good chunk of the new generations and guys like... Alexis Lafreniere not knowing who Britney Spear is already. I doubt people in 80 years will know who Billie Joe Armstrong was haha

The generational gaps are so weird. You just take things for granted most of the time.

I do a lot of presentations in highschool classes to talk about my career and following your dream and sh!t like this, sort of motivational thing. And its insane cause i'm not THAT old. But the kids these days have close to no knowledge or context of how we grew up. They don't know about VHS stores, living without the internet, having to sit in front of the tv to eventually maybe see the music video from your favourite band. Then even if i bring up that i worked with Lagwagon, NOFX, Danny Trejo, Joe Dante, Me first and the Gimme Gimmes, The Trailer Park Boys etc etc they generally have no idea who those people / bands are. So they have no context that can translate to what they know lol I mean a lot of people my age also don't know much about these bands or wtv but they still know about them or heard the names here and there

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4 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Considering a good chunk of the new generations and guys like... Alexis Lafreniere not knowing who Britney Spear is already. I doubt people in 80 years will know who Billie Joe Armstrong was haha

The generational gaps are so weird. You just take things for granted most of the time.

I do a lot of presentations in highschool classes to talk about my career and following your dream and sh!t like this, sort of motivational thing. And its insane cause i'm not THAT old. But the kids these days have close to no knowledge or context of how we grew up. They don't know about VHS stores, living without the internet, having to sit in front of the tv to eventually maybe see the music video from your favourite band. Then even if i bring up that i worked with Lagwagon, NOFX, Danny Trejo, Joe Dante, Me first and the Gimme Gimmes, The Trailer Park Boys etc etc they generally have no idea who those people / bands are. So they have no context that can translate to what they know lol I mean a lot of people my age also don't know much about these bands or wtv but they still know about them or heard the names here and there

It's funny...having seen pictures of your place, and seeing your general demeanor on here...you really are the oldest kid alive...and seriously, I mean this as a compliment.  I get the feeling you're much happier in your day-to-day existence than a LOT of people your age, and it's because you do YOU, completely unapologetically...you don't care about the rules or how you're "supposed" to act as you get older...you do things that you love doing to make a living, do them well, and have a lot of fun doing them.  Seriously man, kudos.  I actually find a lot of "adults" kind of boring...it's all about their jobs (sadly work comes to define people as they get age, sometimes to a disturbing degree, especially in the corporate world), or things that are just kind of stodgy and rigid.  Most people don't necessarily follow their REAL dreams because they're afraid that they won't be able to support themselves enough.

But yeah, we've talked about this, people under 20 grew up in an insanely different world than I did (my wonder years were the 80s).  I have to remind myself at times that the things that I see them do sometimes are just a part of their world.  We just got back from Disney (we allowed my daughter to bring a friend, as her 13th birthday present...her b-day was back in August), and since we didn't rent a car, we Ubered from our resort to the parks...for the most part, whenever we were in the car on our way...out came their phones.  When we were back in the room at night...more phones.  Yeah, I hate it sometimes...I think "Why don't you two just talk to EACH OTHER?!"  But this is what they know...if I'm not around, they'll do it anyway, as will just about everyone else in their age group who has a phone.

And yeah, I remember that so well, watching MTV and hoping to see your band's video, listening to the radio hoping to hear that song REALLY wanted to hear.  I never get sick of seeing my daughter's reaction to how different my world was...to her, it's very much "How did you LIVE like that?"  It's the lack of having info so instantly accessible that gets her.  She really can't believe that for the most part, when we wanted to learn more about something, it involved a trip to the bookstore or library, and gathering facts.  Not word-searches and mouse-clicks.

I may have already mentioned this, but my first exposure to computers was the Commodore Pet...basically was a keyboard with a cassette drive (think a floppy disk drive was an expensive option), and a built-in monochrome (green) monitor.  They were introduced to my elementary school when I was in 4th grade, back in 1979...you could tell that NO ONE in the faculty knew what to really do with them, as they didn't know much about how they worked themselves...you turned it on, and you got this:

2011-07-04-PET-BASIC-4-boot-up.jpg

There was obviously canned software available (on cassettes), but nothing was terribly user-friendly back then...and these machines cost a FORTUNE back then...well over $3000 in today's money.  I think the school bought three of them...since no one there knew how to program one or had had any training of any kind, they pretty much got minimal use, then kinda just disappeared.  I would learn how to program in BASIC later...first on a TRS-80 (Radio Shack, derisively called the "Trash 80"), then much more extensively on an Atari 800.  But yeah, no operating systems back then, or any help.  If you wanted your computer to do anything for you, you either loaded a program, or programmed it yourself.

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45 minutes ago, MB3 said:

nobody is popping champagne yet, but we just heard that the 17th offer we made was accepted. Going to be a lot of nail chewing and breath holding until closing day, but it’s the first step — finally.

Keeping my fingers crossed for you!

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49 minutes ago, MB3 said:

nobody is popping champagne yet, but we just heard that the 17th offer we made was accepted. Going to be a lot of nail chewing and breath holding until closing day, but it’s the first step — finally.

Hope you didn't have to compromise too too much...and that this works out for you!

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12 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

It's funny...having seen pictures of your place, and seeing your general demeanor on here...you really are the oldest kid alive...and seriously, I mean this as a compliment.  I get the feeling you're much happier in your day-to-day existence than a LOT of people your age, and it's because you do YOU, completely unapologetically...you don't care about the rules or how you're "supposed" to act as you get older...you do things that you love doing to make a living, do them well, and have a lot of fun doing them.  Seriously man, kudos.  I actually find a lot of "adults" kind of boring...it's all about their jobs (sadly work comes to define people as they get age, sometimes to a disturbing degree, especially in the corporate world), or things that are just kind of stodgy and rigid.  Most people don't necessarily follow their REAL dreams because they're afraid that they won't be able to support themselves enough.

But yeah, we've talked about this, people under 20 grew up in an insanely different world than I did (my wonder years were the 80s).  I have to remind myself at times that the things that I see them do sometimes are just a part of their world.  We just got back from Disney (we allowed my daughter to bring a friend, as her 13th birthday present...her b-day was back in August), and since we didn't rent a car, we Ubered from our resort to the parks...for the most part, whenever we were in the car on our way...out came their phones.  When we were back in the room at night...more phones.  Yeah, I hate it sometimes...I think "Why don't you two just talk to EACH OTHER?!"  But this is what they know...if I'm not around, they'll do it anyway, as will just about everyone else in their age group who has a phone.

And yeah, I remember that so well, watching MTV and hoping to see your band's video, listening to the radio hoping to hear that song REALLY wanted to hear.  I never get sick of seeing my daughter's reaction to how different my world was...to her, it's very much "How did you LIVE like that?"  It's the lack of having info so instantly accessible that gets her.  She really can't believe that for the most part, when we wanted to learn more about something, it involved a trip to the bookstore or library, and gathering facts.  Not word-searches and mouse-clicks.

I may have already mentioned this, but my first exposure to computers was the Commodore Pet...basically was a keyboard with a cassette drive (think a floppy disk drive was an expensive option), and a built-in monochrome (green) monitor.  They were introduced to my elementary school when I was in 4th grade, back in 1979...you could tell that NO ONE in the faculty knew what to really do with them, as they didn't know much about how they worked themselves...you turned it on, and you got this:

2011-07-04-PET-BASIC-4-boot-up.jpg

There was obviously canned software available (on cassettes), but nothing was terribly user-friendly back then...and these machines cost a FORTUNE back then...well over $3000 in today's money.  I think the school bought three of them...since no one there knew how to program one or had had any training of any kind, they pretty much got minimal use, then kinda just disappeared.  I would learn how to program in BASIC later...first on a TRS-80 (Radio Shack, derisively called the "Trash 80"), then much more extensively on an Atari 800.  But yeah, no operating systems back then, or any help.  If you wanted your computer to do anything for you, you either loaded a program, or programmed it yourself.

There WERE operating systems by 1981 or so. There were dozens, actually. With two floppy drives on my Northstar, I started by loading the operating system on the a drive, then took that out and cranked up a program on the a drive, and used the b drive for data. Simple, right? Bill Gates really didn't invent much of MS-DOS. He took most of it from a Digital Research operating system. Gates had the nerve to license it to IBM, who thought PCs were toys, not business tools. There were better operating systems at the time, but as they said at the time, nobody got fired for buying IBM.

I had a client who bought one of those TRS-80s. She wanted me to help her do payroll on it. I had to explain exactly how complex payroll deduction computations are. She did back off that.

Ah the days of Cranston Manor Adventure! No video, you had to keep everything in your head.

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42 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

It's funny...having seen pictures of your place, and seeing your general demeanor on here...you really are the oldest kid alive...and seriously, I mean this as a compliment.  I get the feeling you're much happier in your day-to-day existence than a LOT of people your age, and it's because you do YOU, completely unapologetically...you don't care about the rules or how you're "supposed" to act as you get older...you do things that you love doing to make a living, do them well, and have a lot of fun doing them.  Seriously man, kudos.  I actually find a lot of "adults" kind of boring...it's all about their jobs (sadly work comes to define people as they get age, sometimes to a disturbing degree, especially in the corporate world), or things that are just kind of stodgy and rigid.  Most people don't necessarily follow their REAL dreams because they're afraid that they won't be able to support themselves enough.

But yeah, we've talked about this, people under 20 grew up in an insanely different world than I did (my wonder years were the 80s).  I have to remind myself at times that the things that I see them do sometimes are just a part of their world.  We just got back from Disney (we allowed my daughter to bring a friend, as her 13th birthday present...her b-day was back in August), and since we didn't rent a car, we Ubered from our resort to the parks...for the most part, whenever we were in the car on our way...out came their phones.  When we were back in the room at night...more phones.  Yeah, I hate it sometimes...I think "Why don't you two just talk to EACH OTHER?!"  But this is what they know...if I'm not around, they'll do it anyway, as will just about everyone else in their age group who has a phone.

And yeah, I remember that so well, watching MTV and hoping to see your band's video, listening to the radio hoping to hear that song REALLY wanted to hear.  I never get sick of seeing my daughter's reaction to how different my world was...to her, it's very much "How did you LIVE like that?"  It's the lack of having info so instantly accessible that gets her.  She really can't believe that for the most part, when we wanted to learn more about something, it involved a trip to the bookstore or library, and gathering facts.  Not word-searches and mouse-clicks.

I may have already mentioned this, but my first exposure to computers was the Commodore Pet...basically was a keyboard with a cassette drive (think a floppy disk drive was an expensive option), and a built-in monochrome (green) monitor.  They were introduced to my elementary school when I was in 4th grade, back in 1979...you could tell that NO ONE in the faculty knew what to really do with them, as they didn't know much about how they worked themselves...you turned it on, and you got this:

2011-07-04-PET-BASIC-4-boot-up.jpg

There was obviously canned software available (on cassettes), but nothing was terribly user-friendly back then...and these machines cost a FORTUNE back then...well over $3000 in today's money.  I think the school bought three of them...since no one there knew how to program one or had had any training of any kind, they pretty much got minimal use, then kinda just disappeared.  I would learn how to program in BASIC later...first on a TRS-80 (Radio Shack, derisively called the "Trash 80"), then much more extensively on an Atari 800.  But yeah, no operating systems back then, or any help.  If you wanted your computer to do anything for you, you either loaded a program, or programmed it yourself.

Thanks man. I started replying but it got really long and most people hate me here and wouldn't care anyway so i'll you pm you hahaha

 

 

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