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5 minutes ago, MB3 said:

not sure if anyone follows baseball, but Juan Soto (with 2 years of control remaining) was just traded for a relative box of packing peanuts. 

In hockey terms, that's like if McDavid got traded while still on his rookie deal for a couple of prospects and a young third line center. It's a sport-changing trade. 

I don’t understand the dynamics in baseball too well. Why would a team do this? Is this a cap type of move? 

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1 hour ago, MB3 said:

not sure if anyone follows baseball, but Juan Soto (with 2 years of control remaining) was just traded for a relative box of packing peanuts. 

In hockey terms, that's like if McDavid got traded while still on his rookie deal for a couple of prospects and a young third line center. It's a sport-changing trade. 

 

1 hour ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

I don’t understand the dynamics in baseball too well. Why would a team do this? Is this a cap type of move? 

The Nats did get a haul back...four prospects (including a couple of top ones), and a couple of major leaguers.  Of course the prospects gotta pan out.

DD56, the problem was the Nats offered well over $400 million over 15 years, and Soto flat-out told them no...if you can't get a player to take your money, not much else you can do.  They probably could've waited until next season to move him, but they got a terrific SS prospect and OF prospect, among the four that they rec'd in the deal.  The SS (21-year-old CJ Abrams) has already played in the bigs.

It's not ideal and if I'm a Nats fan I'm pissed today, but this is one of those deals that can't be fully evaluated in the moment.  If those kids turn out to be stars, the Nats did OK. 

 

11 minutes ago, MB3 said:

there's no cap in baseball, but the Nationals are exiting their window and entering what will soon be a lonnnnnnnnnnnng and brutal re-build. In the past 4 years they've lost Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto. Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher in the sport. Harper is a bonifide superstar. Turner is about to break every record in the books when he signs his contract next year. So they approached Soto and said "we want to rebuild around you (he's only 23 years old and is already a once-in-a-generation type talent)" and he said no, he'd rather go to free agency in 2 years. They presented him with a massive offer and he said no. He still plays his guts out but he just told them he wouldn't have interest re-signing. So the team looked for a trade partner. 

the fact that they took this deal is pretty stupid, I think. Since it's near the trade deadline, the only real buyers are playoff-locks. If they waited until the offseason, I'm certain their buyer pool would be bigger. It's a shockingly low haul for someone who, at 23 years old, is probably a lock for the first ballot Hall of Fame. 

You've been watching baseball a long time...you know better than this.  A LOT of sh!t can happen in the years to come.  He's great RIGHT NOW, absolutely.  Will he still be in five years?  Ten?  No one can answer that.  Plenty of guys who looked like potential Hall of Famers early and then broke down, hit an early decline, etc (David Wright, Don Mattingly, etc).  Not saying that I wouldn't roll the dice on him of course...kids that talented and that young don't become available often...one thing that he's got going for him is even when his BA isn't high, he's STILL constantly on base.  Guys who walk more than they strike out are such a rarity in today's MLB, and he's one of the very best at it, among his other skills.    

I agree with you in that I don't think the Nats had to do this right now, unless they were that high on the kids coming back, and didn't think the offers would get any better.  We'll see if they made the right call, and picked the right prospects.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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23 minutes ago, MB3 said:

there's no cap in baseball, but the Nationals are exiting their window and entering what will soon be a lonnnnnnnnnnnng and brutal re-build. In the past 4 years they've lost Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto. Scherzer is arguably the best pitcher in the sport. Harper is a bonifide superstar. Turner is about to break every record in the books when he signs his contract next year. So they approached Soto and said "we want to rebuild around you (he's only 23 years old and is already a once-in-a-generation type talent)" and he said no, he'd rather go to free agency in 2 years. They presented him with a massive offer and he said no. He still plays his guts out but he just told them he wouldn't have interest re-signing. So the team looked for a trade partner. 

the fact that they took this deal is pretty stupid, I think. Since it's near the trade deadline, the only real buyers are playoff-locks. If they waited until the offseason, I'm certain their buyer pool would be bigger. It's a shockingly low haul for someone who, at 23 years old, is probably a lock for the first ballot Hall of Fame. 

Thank you.  Wow that’s insane. I knew Washington lost a lot of talent the last few years. I remember reading about Scherzer and Harper moving on. I didn’t realize it was that bad. Also yeah… not waiting until the off season seems weird 

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2 minutes ago, MB3 said:

List of players with 22 career WAR before their 24th birthday:

  1. Juan Soto

(end list) 

He's not "great" right now. He's "generational superstar." 

Whatever words you want to use, I'm not really disagreeing with you...right now, he's a top player, the kind of guy that a team like the Padres will cough up some of their top-ranked prospects for.  I'm just not putting him in the Hall of Fame until I see him stay healthy and do what he's been doing for several more years.  If he's in his early 30s and still 90-95% of what he's been so far and hasn't missed many games, then yeah, he's getting into the Hall someday.  But like I said, impossible to tell who will avoid injuries and who will decline when...and also like I said, I would take my chances on acquiring him and then re-signing him for 10 years or so, for the reasons I stated previously.  He possesses a very impressive skillset. 

7 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

Thank you.  Wow that’s insane. I knew Washington lost a lot of talent the last few years. I remember reading about Scherzer and Harper moving on. I didn’t realize it was that bad. Also yeah… not waiting until the off season seems weird 

Harper walked as a free agent.  Scherzer and Turner were traded together to the Dodgers last season...Scherzer became a FA (signed with the Mets) and Turner could become a FA after this season.  Yeah basically the Nats won the whole shebang, and then it fell apart very quickly...there was no reason to keep Scherzer given the state of the team, and he did exactly what he was signed to do while there...durability has become an issue as he's aged, but he's still beastly when healthy.  Didn't help the Nats that a guy like Patrick Corbin basically had one good year left when they signed him...he's been awful ever since.    

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1 minute ago, mfitz804 said:

Would he make the Hall of Fame if he has a career ending injury tomorrow?

Not even close, only 23 years old and has 565 games under his belt as of today (about 3.5 seasons' worth).  If he keeps producing at his current levels for another 7-8 years, he gets in.  

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1 minute ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Not even close, only 23 years old and has 565 games under his belt as of today (about 3.5 seasons' worth).  If he keeps producing at his current levels for another 7-8 years, he gets in.  

Agreed. I was kind of just pointing out the ridiculous hyperbole. 

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3 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Agreed. I was kind of just pointing out the ridiculous hyperbole. 

A great case at the moment is Mike Trout...guy obviously has Hall of Fame talent and is a beast, but is suddenly having a much harder time staying on the field (despite only being almost 31).  If this continues, does he go to the Hall of Fame, despite a good chance that he'll come up short, as far as several milestone numbers go?  

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4 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I don’t think it’s ridiculous hyperbole. Imagine trading for McDavid at 23 and then saying “oh yeah McDavid also has a Stanley Cup ring and probably should’ve won the conn smythe too” Is that not a future Hall of Famer?

Without a catastrophic injury, Juan Soto will be a hall of famer. CR just listed two players in the past thirty years that had electrifying starts that fell short of the Hall, and neither of those two players had accumulated event HALF the career WAR that Soto has at this age.

If he has an entire career like the last 5 seasons, yes, he’s a first ballot lock.

if he blows out a knee, plays at half his previous production for 2 years and then retires, he isn’t. 

If he gets a less catastrophic injury and loses production from it, maybe he’s not. 

Calling a guy a lock after 565 games is pretty hyperbolic, and very optimistic. 

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6 minutes ago, MB3 said:

your argument is a guy who is already a lock for the Hall of Fame? He could’ve retired 2 years ago and would’ve been first ballot. 

baseball reference has a Hall of Fame tracker that is easy to follow and bang-on accurate and he’s a no-brainer HoFer? 

there’s 0.0% chance he falls short unless he goes full heel turn and starts doing horrible things that ruin his image publicly. 

He's been a beast so far, could definitely be a short-term dominance case.  A 1.000 career OPS is obviously sick.  3-time MVP.  

When I said "come up short" for Trout, I was referring to lifetime accumulated numbers...naturally the short-term dominant guys aren't going to rank as high on all-time lists as guys who stayed healthier and productive longer (not to mention the compilers who are merely good, but are able to be very consistently good for 15+ years).  The question for some will be did Trout do it for long enough?  Are the 2012-2019 seasons on their own (before he started missing a lot of games) enough?  

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1 minute ago, MB3 said:

again, Baseball reference has this stuff. they have “black ink” ratings (total accumulated stats), “gray ink” ratings (advanced stats), 7-year peak ratings, and JAWS scores. In all 4 of those metrics he is an easy, waltz-in Hall of Famer. He already has better career stats than Joe DiMaggio for fvcks sake lol. 

They aren’t putting a guy into the Hal of Fame based on metrics after 5 years. 

Saying he has “better career stats than Joe DiMaggio” is doubling down on the ridiculous hyperbole lol. 

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Just now, MB3 said:

that just doesn’t happen all that often. I’d say I’m being realistic and you’re being pessimistic, unless you can point me to all of those “on pace to break Willie Mays career records but then doesn’t” players.

You are assuming what the next 15 years of his career will be and calling him a lock for the hall of fame. I’m saying to wait for the next 15 years and see what happens. 

I am sure there are hundreds of examples of players who were a flash in the pan and didn’t live up to their potential. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m just saying calling a guy a lock for the first ballot when he hasn’t even finished his 5th year is ridiculous. 

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4 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

You are assuming what the next 15 years of his career will be and calling him a lock for the hall of fame. I’m saying to wait for the next 15 years and see what happens. 

I am sure there are hundreds of examples of players who were a flash in the pan and didn’t live up to their potential. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m just saying calling a guy a lock for the first ballot when he hasn’t even finished his 5th year is ridiculous. 

Yeah that was kind of my point...guys do break down and decline at completely different rates, in all sports.  Guys sometimes lose their skills surprisingly out of nowhere...in baseball, you never know who's going to wind up with that bad back that sadly starts sapping their ability.  You can have Hall of Fame talent and even display that for a while, but doesn't always translate to a Hall of Fame career.  

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

A great case at the moment is Mike Trout...guy obviously has Hall of Fame talent and is a beast, but is suddenly having a much harder time staying on the field (despite only being almost 31).  If this continues, does he go to the Hall of Fame, despite a good chance that he'll come up short, as far as several milestone numbers go?  

He will...hell Pujols will be a first-ballot guy (barring a 'roid link) and look at the last decade of his career.

I get what you're saying about compiler numbers but by the time Trout retires most of the people voting for the HOF will be ones raised in the analytic age, they won't care about compiling stats as much as voters did in 1970 (and even then you had a Sandy Koufax make it on the first ballot off of five-six transcendent seasons).

Edited by NJDevs4978
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19 minutes ago, MB3 said:

are you so determined to be correct that you missed where the topic switched from Juan Soto to Mike Trout? Or are you unaware that Mike trout has already surpassed Joe Dimaggio in career WAR? 

I’m not determined to be right, I am right about Soto and you have zero way to argue I’m not. But yes, I didn’t realize you had changed gears into an argument you could potentially sustain. 

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12 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

He will...hell Pujols will be a first-ballot guy (barring a 'roid link) and look at the last decade of his career.

I get what you're saying about compiler numbers but by the time Trout retires most of the people voting for the HOF will be ones raised in the analytic age, they won't care about compiling stats as much as voters did in 1970 (and even then you had a Sandy Koufax make it on the first ballot off of five-six transcendent seasons).

Looking at the WAR chart (not that I’m bullish on that metric), yeah, Trout will get in…the only guys in his neighborhood not to get in are Pete Rose (we know why) and Curt Schilling (because he’s not a swell guy).  A couple of others around him will get in once eligible.  

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Would it've been crazy to say McDavid at 23 years old plus a Stanley Cup was a HoF lock barring any significant career-ending injuries? Because players like Soto, players like Mcdavid, players like Crosby, they don't just "fall off a cliff". There are no examples of a player of Soto's abilities simply turning into a pumpkin. CR is as close to a baseball historian as we have on this forum and his best examples are guys who didn't even have *half* -- 50%, 1/2, 1:2 -- of the career at 23 years old as Soto has. That isn't hyperbole, that's "google it" territory. 

EDIT: And CR brought up Trout, not me. And that's already been proven to be a poor example, since Trout could say literally right now "ahhhh I'm gonna go be a part time weatherman for my local CBS affiliate. I'm too tired" and he's be a first-ballot player the second he was eligible. 

I mentioned Trout mostly wondering aloud that if he’s to be banged up from here on out and playing 100 games or less most seasons, did he do enough while healthy to merit HOF consideration?  Based on WAR (again, not a huge proponent of that metric, but many do take it seriously), yeah, sure looks that way.  

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17 minutes ago, MB3 said:

Would it've been crazy to say McDavid at 23 years old plus a Stanley Cup was a HoF lock barring any significant career-ending injuries? Because players like Soto, players like Mcdavid, players like Crosby, they don't just "fall off a cliff". There are no examples of a player of Soto's abilities simply turning into a pumpkin. CR is as close to a baseball historian as we have on this forum and his best examples are guys who didn't even have *half* -- 50%, 1/2, 1:2 -- of the career at 23 years old as Soto has. That isn't hyperbole, that's "google it" territory. 

Yes, calling anyone a first ballot lock hall of famer based on less than 5 seasons would be ridiculous hyperbole. 

And, you engaged in even more ridiculous hyperbole when you looked at WAR and said:

2 hours ago, MB3 said:

He already has better career stats than Joe DiMaggio for fvcks sake lol. 

Trout doesn’t have better career stats. You can Google that. DiMaggio had like 700 more hits, 700 more RBI, more homers (only a few), almost 400 more runs scored. Batting average is 22 points higher, and all of that while missing three of his prime years to serve in the military. DiMaggio played under 400 games more than Trout has so far, and Trout hasn’t played a full season in 3 years and who knows what his numbers will be at the end of the day. 

But certainly saying he has better career numbers than DiMaggio, which is easily disproven with a simple comparison of their stats, is another example of hyperbole. 

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18 minutes ago, MB3 said:

did I time travel to 1996 or am I actually having a baseball debate where WAR isn’t important but (checks notes) HITS?!? are hahahahahah 

We weren’t debating which was more important. You said that Trout had better career stats than DiMaggio. He doesn’t. You were talking out of your ass.

Trying to spin it and adding a bunch of ahahahahaha at the end doesn’t make your position more valid. 
 

Edited by mfitz804
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22 minutes ago, MB3 said:

he currently has more WAR than DiMaggio. WAR is a cumulative stat. You’re being a clown. 

That is ONE stat. You said he has better “career stats”. That’s why it’s hyperbole.

At least not without trying to spin things, I mean I posted 5-6 stats where DiMaggio has better numbers and your response is that someone is debating that hits are better than WAR. That never happened, and you didn’t mention any of the other stats I mentioned. 

On top of that, hits are still a career stat, and DiMaggio’s is better, along with a dozen others. How many guys are in the Hall of Fame based solely on their WAR? Zero. 

True to form, you have to go back to insulting people when you can’t otherwise sustain an argument, but truthfully the only clown here is the one who keeps posting comical takes that cannot be backed up.

Edited by mfitz804
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2 minutes ago, MB3 said:

plus minus is a stat. how heavily do you weigh that?

how about for scott stevens. he doesn’t have as many goals as most HoFers. should that matter?

Again, the discussion was not about weighing which stat is more valuable, it’s your ridiculous take that Trout has better career stats, based on one stat, when in fact there are tons of stats that DiMaggio has the edge. And, let’s be honest, do you really think the people who vote for the Hall of Fame don’t include hits, home runs, runs scored, RBI or batting average in their decision? Even you couldn’t say that. 

Your Scott Stevens argument is flawed because he was a defenseman. That’s like asking if Tom Seaver belongs in the Hall of Fame based on his batting statistics. Plus, Stevens is 24th overall all-time in goals by a defenseman, look at the guys above him and count how many guys are not in the Hall of Fame or likely to be there when they retire. 

On top of that, you’re trying to pivot again because the conversation we were having wasn’t about what the criteria are to get into the Hall of Fame, but rather which guy has better career stats. 

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