NHL Trade Deadline 3/21: Thread-2022

[Devil Dan 56]

I think advanced stats have their place and help paint a picture, but I agree that there are so many variables in hockey. I’m sure they are helpful when used along with the eye test, but I’ve seen Damon Serverson aimlessly wandering around after a goal against too many times to think he’s some kind of defensive master who happens to be unlucky. 

[mfitz804]

9 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

 I’m not saying they have no place- but like you said, it’s a tool. Teams and fans are becoming too reliant on that tool, and discarding the eye test. That’s when it becomes a problem.

They're for math nerds and chart/graph fans, not hockey fans. 

It feels like advanced stats sometimes show how well a guy is playing or performing or scoring, and sometimes they don't. Its like the old saying that even a stopped clock is right twice a day. 

People who like them throw up their hands and say "oh well, must be bad luck" rather than realizing that the data they are relying on just isn't reliable. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

They're for math nerds and chart/graph fans, not hockey fans. 

It feels like advanced stats sometimes show how well a guy is playing or performing or scoring, and sometimes they don't. Its like the old saying that even a stopped clock is right twice a day. 

People who like them throw up their hands and say "oh well, must be bad luck" rather than realizing that the data they are relying on just isn't reliable. 

Check out Sykora's goal.

To me, that's what makes hockey tough to evaluate from an analytics-heavy standpoint...there's a lot of luck and bounces in hockey, simply by the nature of the sport.  

Analytics also tend to treat players more like robots and less like human beings.  We know the drill...some guys have a way of maintaining their games and even raising them when it really counts.  Some guys put up more cosmetic numbers and have that way of disappearing when you really need them.  Analytic-types tend to discount being "clutch" as being non-existent.  Not saying that there's any great way to measure "clutch"...but when some players keep vanishing over and over again (maybe after a couple of failures in big spots, that starts to weigh on them, leading to more failure), it's impossible to dismiss the human element.  

[Devil Dan 56]

4 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Check out Sykora's goal.

To me, that's what makes hockey tough to evaluate from an analytics-heavy standpoint...there's a lot of luck and bounces in hockey, simply by the nature of the sport.  

Analytics also tend to treat players more like robots and less like human beings.  We know the drill...some guys have a way of maintaining their games and even raising them when it really counts.  Some guys put up more cosmetic numbers and have that way of disappearing when you really need them.  Analytic-types tend to discount being "clutch" as being non-existent.  Not saying that there's any great way to measure "clutch"...but when some players keep vanishing over and over again (maybe after a couple of failures in big spots, that starts to weigh on them, leading to more failure), it's impossible to dismiss the human element.  

Clutch is one of those things that analytics can’t predict or identify but you know it when you see it. Claude in 1995, Richter (blech) in the 94 playoffs and 96 World Cup, Jon Casey coming in for an injured Grant Fuhr and taking the Blues to 7 against a powerhouse Detroit team. Even something like Henrique getting 2 series ending OT goals in 2012. Billy Smith another guy who was well known for having his game hit another level at playoff time. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 minute ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

Clutch is one of those things that analytics can’t predict or identify but you know it when you see it. Claude in 1995, Richter (blech) in the 94 playoffs and 96 World Cup, Jon Casey coming in for an injured Grant Fuhr and taking the Blues to 7 against a powerhouse Detroit team. Even something like Henrique getting 2 series ending OT goals in 2012. Billy Smith another guy who was well known for having his game hit another level at playoff time. 

It's funny, Henrique was more of a "right place right time" guy with his goals, but I agree with the other names you brought up.  And of course, as we know, what was funny about Claude is that he was a complete nonentity in the 1995 regular season (and hadn't done much in the 1993-94 regular season as well, before also turning in the playoffs that year).  

2001 was a notable exception (that year was largely uneven for Marty), but Marty was one of those players who seemed to get even better in the bigger spots...he and Derek Jeter had similar careers, even though they obviously played very different sports.  Some guys just have that knack. 

[Devil Dan 56]

1 minute ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

It's funny, Henrique was more of a "right place right time" guy with his goals, but I agree with the other names you brought up.  And of course, as we know, what was funny about Claude is that he was a complete nonentity in the 1995 regular season (and hadn't done much in the 1993-94 regular season as well, before also turning in the playoffs that year).  

2001 was a notable exception (that year was largely uneven for Marty), but Marty was one of those players who seemed to get even better in the bigger spots...he and Derek Jeter had similar careers, even though they obviously played very different sports.  Some guys just have that knack. 

I’ll be honest… Henrique was a stretch because I realized all my references were from the mid 90s haha

[SterioDesign]

to REALLY get a clear story with analytics, it would have to a miles long in order to actually break down all the context.

I mean you can make make the most perfect breakout from your end and tic-tac-toe. Perfect passing. If you miss the net with your shot.. all this goes to sh!t and not on paper lol well you may get a zone entry data and other sh!t but still, not really telling the story.

But then you can just dump the puck... get there and throw it in front of the net, hit 3-4 lets and it goes in lol

 

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

3 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

Analytics are naturally of interest to NHL owners because it brings on the promise of icing a winning team on cheap.  This goes especially so in a league where there is a hard salary cap.

However, analytics also fails a lot more in hockey than baseball because while in baseball where 80-90% of the action in any given game is largely between 3 players (Pitcher, catcher and batter), in ice hockey you have 10 players in constant motion at any given time with line changes.  That doesn't even count the goalies into the equation.  There's just way too many variables and I think more and more people are starting to see the fallacy of analytics and getting frustrated with results going against the numbers that are often chalked up to being "unlucky."

I really can't think of a NHL team in the past 10-15 years who have won a championship where analytics played a major role.  Teams that I can think of off the top of my head that have went all-in on analytics (Leafs, Coyotes, Devils, Oilers) have not even come close.

I mean Tampa Bay were the first teams to truley adopt analytics back in 2009 when they were a bit of a mess. They made the decision to embed in  basically every aspect of the game since then. Look at their drafting record since 2009 when he joined and it is very impressive. 2011 in particular. 

They hired a guy who was working with the MLB and brought him in primarily to focus on unbiased player evaluation and drafting. And then expanded from there, including having influence over how to manage the cap. 

He now has his name engraved on the last two Stanley Cups , so I would say that is a pretty good example of success. 

The thing you will find is as it becomes more prevalent it levels the playing field, people are looking at the same models etc, so the advantage goes.  Eventually other teams find new ways of advancing the game and progress. 

And just to say I am not a massive advocate of stats. For starters when it comes to maths I am absolutely useless, so it doesn't hold much appeal in terms of the process behind it and the modeling. What I do find interesting is seeing if the hard work other people put in actually matches the output. 

Like anything it's not going to be effective in isolation. And it doesn't measure things like team chemistry or what a guy is like in the locker room or on the bench. There are certain things that numbers just can quantify that make for a successful team. 

Unless I have missed a model that can calculate the effect of one team mate banging another ones wife on team performance. If not I am inventing one and  calling it the Brindros Projection and it is measured in xD. You have got your expected D and then actual D. And Brind'amours wife's actually D stats were well above the xD that Rod was expecting. 

 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Unless I have missed a model that can calculate the effect of one team mate banging another ones wife on team performance. If not I am inventing one and  calling it the Brindros Projection and it is measured in xD. You have got your expected D and then actual D. And Brind'amours wife's actually D stats were well above the xD that Rod was expecting. 

The 1989-90 Maple Leafs were a bit of a surprise team...out of nowhere, they put up their best record in quite some time (38-38-4) in making the playoffs, and had suddenly become an offensive force, though they couldn't play defense (or more chose not to).  Hard to say if they could have kept it going the following year...

BUT, Al Iafrate and his wife split up, and teammate Gary Leeman not only started dating her, but was even bringing her to team functions...Iafrate soon began to withdraw from the team, and the Leafs were already trying to trade Leeman just four games into the soon-to-be lost 1990-91 season (with no takers)...eventually, Iafrate basically told the Leafs he couldn't play there anymore, and was finally dealt in January of that season, but the damage had long been done to the team...they went just 12-30-4 while Iafrate was still there (giving up a staggering 190 goals), and afterwards won just enough to avoid watching their first round pick (held by the Devils of course) become the #1 selection overall.  From many accounts, the whole Leeman-Iafrate situation ripped that 1990-91 team completely apart.  

[MadDog2020]

Sportsnet's Jeff Marek recently reported the Canucks could have an interest in Devils forward Pavel Zacha. Like Boeser, the 24-year-old is an RFAwith arbitration rights but would only cost $3 million to qualify his rights. Perhaps a Boeser-for-Zacha swap is possible if the Devils include a draft pick or prospect. https://thehockeynews.com/news/trade-rumors-continue-to-dog-the-vancouver-canucks?fbclid=IwAR3NmevqUbHE_99RXjXGHlABq6HPihfJe_MHyBtWkAjqCEHZz4hzjLGweHs

[SterioDesign]

Let's hope

[Nicomo]

2 hours ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

I mean Tampa Bay were the first teams to truley adopt analytics back in 2009 when they were a bit of a mess. They made the decision to embed in  basically every aspect of the game since then. Look at their drafting record since 2009 when he joined and it is very impressive. 2011 in particular. 

They hired a guy who was working with the MLB and brought him in primarily to focus on unbiased player evaluation and drafting. And then expanded from there, including having influence over how to manage the cap. 

He now has his name engraved on the last two Stanley Cups , so I would say that is a pretty good example of success. 

Hurricanes are another team that’s had success with being big on analytics. 

[RunninWithTheDevil]

Zacha and a pick or two for Boeser? Why not

[mfitz804]

13 minutes ago, RunninWithTheDevil said:

Zacha and a pick or two for Boeser? Why not

He’s 0.80 PPG for his career. 72 points more than Zacha in 64 fewer games. Age is right, contract is more but we have more. 

Depending on what pick(s) you mean, I don’t see why we wouldn’t. 

[devlman]

2 hours ago, MadDog2020 said:

Sportsnet's Jeff Marek recently reported the Canucks could have an interest in Devils forward Pavel Zacha. Like Boeser, the 24-year-old is an RFAwith arbitration rights but would only cost $3 million to qualify his rights. Perhaps a Boeser-for-Zacha swap is possible if the Devils include a draft pick or prospect. https://thehockeynews.com/news/trade-rumors-continue-to-dog-the-vancouver-canucks?fbclid=IwAR3NmevqUbHE_99RXjXGHlABq6HPihfJe_MHyBtWkAjqCEHZz4hzjLGweHs

In a fvcking heartbeat. Wake up Fitz.

[RunninWithTheDevil]

7 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

He’s 0.80 PPG for his career. 72 points more than Zacha in 64 fewer games. Age is right, contract is more but we have more. 

Depending on what pick(s) you mean, I don’t see why we wouldn’t. 

I still hesitate to give away 1st round picks but I'm also sick of having to rely on having decent draft position so something has to give eventually. Boeser for Zacha and a 1st? Maybe they bite for Zacha+Foote/Clarke/Vukojevic?

[mfitz804]

Just now, RunninWithTheDevil said:

I still hesitate to give away 1st round picks but I'm also sick of having to rely on having decent draft position so something has to give eventually. Boeser for Zacha and a 1st? Maybe they bite for Zacha+Foote/Clarke/Vukojevic?

We suck enough that I’m hesitant to trade our first round pick. 

[SterioDesign]

Pat: Hello?

Tom: Hey Pat! This is Tom Fitz from New Jersey. So i was watching a video and Seravalli made a suggestion about a trade our teams could do and i thought it was a pretty good idea. I'll email you the link!

[Nicomo]

Boeser is exactly the type of player the Devils should be going after. He would put up 30 goals a year in his sleep playing on a line with Jack and Bratt. 

[Fansinz88]

4 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

Boeser is exactly the type of player the Devils should be going after. He would put up 30 goals a year in his sleep playing on a line with Jack and Bratt. 

Zacha and a first rounder? Yes please. Like now Tom. Thanks. 

[CarpathianForest]

I for one opine for the days of great Devils grades like Martin Skoula, Nic Havelid and Steve Sullivan

[SterioDesign]

 

[Nicomo]

He’ll probably end going to the Rags for Kevin Rooney, a 4th round pick, and a stale bagel. 

[mfitz804]

3 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

He’ll probably end going to the Rags for Kevin Rooney, a 4th round pick, and a stale bagel. 

This sounds accurate. 

[MadDog2020]

24 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

He’ll probably end going to the Rags for Kevin Rooney, a 4th round pick, and a stale bagel.