The "Man I was dead wrong about THAT" thread

[mfitz804]

8 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

I think it is still too early to dunk on posters who are still at the very least iffy on him.

Well I think you are on the wrong website sir…

lol

[titans04]

29 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I can’t wait to leave the turd out of our roster. 

“Leave The Turd Out” should be the next “We Are the Red & Black”. 

He should have his own laxative commercial - "Just pass that turd"

[Guadana]

30 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

Bravo.  He went from 4th worse to maybe 3rd worst.  You sure got me.

Let's also totally ignore the 2 goals in his first 20 something games as well.  I am glad he got it going when the playoffs were well in the rearview mirror.

Close to be 2nd-3rd best. Only Makar is really better. Great we have Luke Hughes and our own very good and productive defensive center. The real Nico is not "the first 20 games" or "the last 20 games", the real actual Nico is "the last season". Don't complicate it,

Edited April 11, 2022 by Guadana

[mfitz804]

Could be worse, we could have picked Lias Andersson. 

 

[Guadana]

7 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

As far as the bolded goes, I was definitely on the "I think Nico does some good things and it's still early his career train", but I can understand some starting to lose patience, in trying to figure out exactly what his top end was supposed to be...he's a guy who's been a bit brittle, and over his first 39 GP this season, he put up 8 G and 16 A...not numbers that excite.  Didn't stop me from rooting hard for him and still believing that he had more to offer, but at the same time, I was starting to wonder if he was going to be a "Rich Man's Zajac" (my words).

He's enjoying what has to be by far his best offensive run in the NHL...over his last 24 GP, he's scored 12 G and added 18 A...that projects to over 100 points over a full season.  Not saying that he'll ever do that (he's shooting over 21% for this stretch), but suddenly 70-80 points in any given season where he plays in at least 70 games doesn't seem like such a farfetched expectation.  And what's also been a nice positive this year is that when he's missed games, he hasn't needed a long time to get his game back.  Nice to see his game take this leap forward.

I think his full season result is what he actually is. His Dallas goal was pretty rare highlight thing. Like you mentioned, I cant imagine he can play and score 20% per season, but he will not score 3-5% full season like he did in the beggining of the season(as i remember refs cancelled two of his goals and this rate could be better). I like his conervative game and I think this is what Devils need in him when we have another good center. And we have really good one.  I think he can do little bit more on regular basis if he will play with more competent and independent or more talented players than Zacha or Vesey. 
After drafting L Hughes we have closed our psychological problem of "not drafting Makar".
But I think when Ruff will leave us, Devils will play in more defensive and accurate game and I think productiin of our player will drop little bit. I think Hischier will produce on the 65pts+ per 82 games level and I think with his game it`s pretty good enoguh. If he will produce on the 75p+ level - that will be awesome. 

[Guadana]

3 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Could be worse, we could have picked Lias Andersson. 

 

As I remember only Kreider hit 60 points as a ranger who was drafted by rangers in the last 20 years. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

14 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

At one point Zacha looked to be a 70+ point guy over a 20-something game stretch last season.  Didn't work out.

Nico was brutal to start the season.  He had like 2 goals in 20-something games.  Would have been nice if he had the production that he has now when playoffs were still a possibility, but it is what it is.

Question is, which is the real Nico?  The first 20 games or most recent 20 games?  I think it is still too early to dunk on posters who are still at the very least iffy on him.

I’m not dunking on anyone.  I even said that I understood where those who were starting to wonder about him were coming from.

I’d like to be hopeful that he can be more productive than we thought…this has been a fun run for him (and us).

EDIT:  Adding some more context.

Zacha (as I've mentioned many times) managed 29 goals and 31 assists over an 84-game stretch that really suggested that he could become a 50-60 point guy per 82 GP...especially since his run came over a batch of games that pretty much represented a full season's worth of games (even though they all happened across three seasons).  My point here is that in Zacha's case, it wasn't like he got hot for only 20 or so games, then promptly cooled off...the production was sustained for long enough that it's now extremely disappointing that his numbers have fallen off so damned sharply. 

I get that you're frustrated with where the Devils are (everyone is, even with some positives, like Jack, Nico, and Bratt's production, Mercer turning in a solid rookie year, etc), but sometimes it feels like you're going to look for negatives no matter what...even within the positives.  In Nico's case, if he had gotten off to a hot start and then cooled off, you'd probably be knocking him for that too...and yeah, he did only have 2 goals through 21 games, but he did have 13 points...not like he was a complete black hole by any stretch.  I'll give you that both he and Sharangovich have to continue what they've started as this season draws to a close...if Nico has 24 points through 39 games next season, it's gonna feel like a let down, and a step back.  And Sharangovich needs to come up with more than 17 points through his first 40 GP (that's what he's done in each of his first two seasons).

Here's a quick breakdown of Nico's season:

First 8 GP:  1 G, 2 A (it was this beginning that has us a little concerned, me included)

Next 25 GP:  7 G, 14 A

Then a 6-game point drought.

Last 24 GP:  12 G, 18 A

So he did start slow and then had a relatively brief slump, but overall, he's had two stretches where he was clearly contributing offensively.  I think if we were told that he wouldn't miss too many games and would have an overall season like he's had to date (and trending upwards), we would've signed up for that.  Hopefully this is leading to good things for next season and beyond.    

Edited April 12, 2022 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[titans04]

8 minutes ago, Guadana said:

As I remember only Kreider hit 60 points as a ranger who was drafted by rangers in the last 20 years. 

and then there's goalies but I digress. 

So there's an overall picture and we seem to suck at that for the last decade or so and that's what's most important.  So in the end it's not only about forwards, defensemen or goalies drafted, signed or found on our door step, coaching, front office you name it. So many pieces to get right.

[Nicomo]

1 hour ago, DevsMan84 said:

My favorite part is that it is framed as either or and nothing else.  Like having Rantanen and Makar isn't somehow a possibility.  Yet, somehow against all odds, Colorado got both and we got Hischier and Zacha.

L-O-L

It was also a possibility to have Patrick and Kakko instead of Nico and Jack. But ofc some of you would never choose to look at it that way. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Nicomo

[mfitz804]

2 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

It was also a possibility to have Patrick and Kakko instead of Nico and Jack. But ofc people like you and Titans would never chose to look at it that way. 

Technically it was possible to have hundreds of different guys, since those picks were 1OA. We could have had literally anyone drafted in 2017 or 2019. We should have a thread where we go through every single pick in each draft to determine if we picked the right guy or if we should have picked the guy who was picked 2nd, 20th, 162nd, etc.

Sounds like fun right??

Edited April 11, 2022 by mfitz804

[mfitz804]

7 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Technically it was possible to have hundreds of different guys, since those picks were 1OA. We could have had literally anyone drafted in 2017 or 2019. We should have a thread where we go through every single pick in each draft to determine if we picked the right guy or if we should have picked the guy who was picked 2nd, 20th, 162nd, etc.

Sounds like fun right??

And we should probably do this annually in case someone has a breakout season or in case someone falls off, or gets injured. 

[titans04]

1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

And we should probably do this annually in case someone has a breakout season or in case someone falls off, or gets injured. 

this is what happens when the season dead ends around Nov 15th.  Someday things may change, right?

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

13 hours ago, Guadana said:

I think his full season result is what he actually is. His Dallas goal was pretty rare highlight thing. Like you mentioned, I cant imagine he can play and score 20% per season, but he will not score 3-5% full season like he did in the beggining of the season(as i remember refs cancelled two of his goals and this rate could be better). I like his conervative game and I think this is what Devils need in him when we have another good center. And we have really good one.  I think he can do little bit more on regular basis if he will play with more competent and independent or more talented players than Zacha or Vesey. 
After drafting L Hughes we have closed our psychological problem of "not drafting Makar".
But I think when Ruff will leave us, Devils will play in more defensive and accurate game and I think productiin of our player will drop little bit. I think Hischier will produce on the 65pts+ per 82 games level and I think with his game it`s pretty good enoguh. If he will produce on the 75p+ level - that will be awesome. 

And even the bolded would still represent a nice jump.  He's producing at a 70 points per 82 GP clip over this season...it wasn't too long ago that his detractors wouldn't have thought such a thing was possible.  Like we've noted, he's becoming that ideal 2C to play behind Jack...but he's also showing that he can still produce even Jack's out of the lineup, when asked to fill in as a 1C.  

Re:  the whole Makar thing, all one has to do is look at the Devils' center situation at the time Nico was selected.  The Devils pretty much had to take a center, especially in a draft where there were two who were projected to go first and second...it's damned near impossible to get top young centers unless you draft them. 

And yeah I said it elsewhere, but if a new coach comes in and brings a competent defensive system that shaves the points off the Devils' top offensive players, fine.  It's about winning.     

[DevsMan84]

14 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I’m not dunking on anyone.  I even said that I understood where those who were starting to wonder about him were coming from.

I’d like to be hopeful that he can be more productive than we thought…this has been a fun run for him (and us).

EDIT:  Adding some more context.

Zacha (as I've mentioned many times) managed 29 goals and 31 assists over an 84-game stretch that really suggested that he could become a 50-60 point guy per 82 GP...especially since his run came over a batch of games that pretty much represented a full season's worth of games (even though they all happened across three seasons).  My point here is that in Zacha's case, it wasn't like he got hot for only 20 or so games, then promptly cooled off...the production was sustained for long enough that it's now extremely disappointing that his numbers have fallen off so damned sharply. 

I get that you're frustrated with where the Devils are (everyone is, even with some positives, like Jack, Nico, and Bratt's production, Mercer turning in a solid rookie year, etc), but sometimes it feels like you're going to look for negatives no matter what...even within the positives.  In Nico's case, if he had gotten off to a hot start and then cooled off, you'd probably be knocking him for that too...and yeah, he did only have 2 goals through 21 games, but he did have 13 points...not like he was a complete black hole by any stretch.  I'll give you that both he and Sharangovich have to continue what they've started as this season draws to a close...if Nico has 24 points through 39 games next season, it's gonna feel like a let down, and a step back.  And Sharangovich needs to come up with more than 17 points through his first 40 GP (that's what he's done in each of his first two seasons).

Here's a quick breakdown of Nico's season:

First 8 GP:  1 G, 2 A (it was this beginning that has us a little concerned, me included)

Next 25 GP:  7 G, 14 A

Then a 6-game point drought.

Last 24 GP:  12 G, 18 A

So he did start slow and then had a relatively brief slump, but overall, he's had two stretches where he was clearly contributing offensively.  I think if we were told that he wouldn't miss too many games and would have an overall season like he's had to date (and trending upwards), we would've signed up for that.  Hopefully this is leading to good things for next season and beyond.    

I wasn't saying you were dunking on me.  That was for our resident passive-aggressive poster.

As for Nico, he certainly got hot when we needed him least.  He also started to heat up once Bratt was put on his wing on a more consistent basis.  This is the same guy who somehow got Johnsson to be our second best player for a 10 game stretch early this season as well as get Mercer a lot of his early points as well.  Same goes with Sharangovich who started cooking when Hughes came back and was on his wing.

Wish these guys could come out of the gate with this kind of play from the get-go.  When that happens and not when we are 25-30+ points out of a playoff spot then I will be convinced.

[DevsMan84]

14 hours ago, Nicomo said:

It was also a possibility to have Patrick and Kakko instead of Nico and Jack. But ofc some of you would never choose to look at it that way. 

lol well no sh!t.

But it is sad when the best we could hope for from our paid, professional scouts is at best hit 1 out of 2.  I guess asking 2 out of 2 hits is too tall of an ask for them (but seemingly not other teams like Colorado).

[DevsMan84]

14 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

And we should probably do this annually in case someone has a breakout season or in case someone falls off, or gets injured. 

I have zero problem questioning the results of a scouting department that is being paid good money to be right more often than wrong.

[mfitz804]

21 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

I have zero problem questioning the results of a scouting department that is being paid good money to be right more often than wrong.

But the thing is, you're not questioning it, you're second guessing it. Picking first overall does not guarantee anyone the best player in the draft. If you look through the list of #1OA's, I bet that is often not the case. 

So is it a scouting issue, or is it just that scouting plays the odds and sometimes you win and sometimes you lose?

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

18 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

I wasn't saying you were dunking on me.  That was for our resident passive-aggressive poster.

As for Nico, he certainly got hot when we needed him least.  He also started to heat up once Bratt was put on his wing on a more consistent basis.  This is the same guy who somehow got Johnsson to be our second best player for a 10 game stretch early this season as well as get Mercer a lot of his early points as well.  Same goes with Sharangovich who started cooking when Hughes came back and was on his wing.

Wish these guys could come out of the gate with this kind of play from the get-go.  When that happens and not when we are 25-30+ points out of a playoff spot then I will be convinced.

You're overestimating Bratt's effects on Bratt and Mercer.  Johnsson's run was shooting%-induced and a fluke...I've discussed it elsewhere, but the problem with Johnsson is that he doesn't generate enough shots on goal, and never really has...he's managed just 54 SOG over his last 39 GP; for his career, just 401 SOG through 240 GP.  He's only ever getting "hot" when pucks are going in for him at an unsustainable rate...that's why he's basically had two offensive bursts during his career to date, and hasn't done much else (often becoming completely invisible for very long stretches).  He was never going to keep shooting 26.5%, the way he was when he scored 9 goals through his first 19 GP...or 25%, the way that he did in 2018-19, when he scored 17 G in a 38-game run for the Maple Leafs.  He's managed 47 goals for his career, on 11.7% shooting...basically 16 G per 82 GP...I think this rate is about what anyone can realistically expect from him in any given season.  He'll occasionally tease more, but it's all a mirage, and Bratt or no Bratt, he would've gone cold, to the point where we would've been lamenting Bratt being stuck with him had that line stayed together.

Mercer's had the kind of year you'd expect from a 20-year-old rookie...up and down.  He came out flying (and looking very dynamic), then struggled for a while, and as of late has been (somewhat quietly) notching points again...18 of them in his last 26 GP (and Bratt has not really been involved in much of that at all, if you check Mercer's scoring log, as to who was involved in Mercer's point production).  Basically this is way of saying that that initial line, while fun to watch (all lines are when they're converting), there wasn't really much that pointed to that line remaining productive long-term...especially with Johnsson simply not being a reliable offensive contributor.

Out of Nico's last 30 points, Bratt's notched a point in half of those...maybe it's a case of two players who are both now 23 and have now figured out how to produce when put together on a line?  Not like they've never played together since they've been here.      

[DevsMan84]

1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

But the thing is, you're not questioning it, you're second guessing it. Picking first overall does not guarantee anyone the best player in the draft. If you look through the list of #1OA's, I bet that is often not the case. 

So is it a scouting issue, or is it just that scouting plays the odds and sometimes you win and sometimes you lose?

That's fine, but how does a team gets the 3rd or 4th best player in the top 5 in 2017?  I know we have been around this rodeo many times before, but when you use your 1st overall on that kind of player, your 6th overall on a player whose 3-4 players immediately after him are far better, and using late round picks on guys like Chase Stillman, someone is not doing their jobs right.

[DevsMan84]

1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

You're overestimating Bratt's effects on Bratt and Mercer.  Johnsson's run was shooting%-induced and a fluke...I've discussed it elsewhere, but the problem with Johnsson is that he doesn't generate enough shots on goal, and never really has...he's managed just 54 SOG over his last 39 GP; for his career, just 401 SOG through 240 GP.  He's only ever getting "hot" when pucks are going in for him at an unsustainable rate...that's why he's basically had two offensive bursts during his career to date, and hasn't done much else (often becoming completely invisible for very long stretches).  He was never going to keep shooting 26.5%, the way he was when he scored 9 goals through his first 19 GP...or 25%, the way that he did in 2018-19, when he scored 17 G in a 38-game run for the Maple Leafs.  He's managed 47 goals for his career, on 11.7% shooting...basically 16 G per 82 GP...I think this rate is about what anyone can realistically expect from him in any given season.  He'll occasionally tease more, but it's all a mirage, and Bratt or no Bratt, he would've gone cold, to the point where we would've been lamenting Bratt being stuck with him had that line stayed together.

Mercer's had the kind of year you'd expect from a 20-year-old rookie...up and down.  He came out flying (and looking very dynamic), then struggled for a while, and as of late has been (somewhat quietly) notching points again...18 of them in his last 26 GP (and Bratt has not really been involved in much of that at all, if you check Mercer's scoring log, as to who was involved in Mercer's point production).  Basically this is way of saying that that initial line, while fun to watch (all lines are when they're converting), there wasn't really much that pointed to that line remaining productive long-term...especially with Johnsson simply not being a reliable offensive contributor.

Out of Nico's last 30 points, Bratt's notched a point in half of those...maybe it's a case of two players who are both now 23 and have now figured out how to produce when put together on a line?  Not like they've never played together since they've been here.      

Johnsson's numbers started falling the instant Bratt was taken off his line.  When Bratt was put on Hischier's wing is when Hischier's numbers started improving (as well as Tatar's).  I think it is silly to ignore that and just blame that on shooting % balancing out.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

25 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

Johnsson's numbers started falling the instant Bratt was taken off his line.  When Bratt was put on Hischier's wing is when Hischier's numbers started improving (as well as Tatar's).  I think it is silly to ignore that and just blame that on shooting % balancing out.

How is it silly?  To score, you've gotta able to get shots on goal.  Johnsson has NEVER done that nearly enough...like I said, 34 shots over his first 19 GP this season (1.79 per game average...damn near EXACTLY the same as his career rate of 1.67).  If he was converting at his career shooting% of 11.7 (or even a little over), he'd have 4 goals instead of 9.  How many players in 2022 do you think are shooting 26.5% over full seasons...especially ones like Johnsson, who have very clear limitations?  Even Draisaitl, who's obviously a great shooter (guy has been a complete beast over the last four seasons, twice scoring 50 goals) shoots "only" 20%...but more importantly, the guy gets SOG...he's averaged 3.1 SPG over his last four years.  Johnsson has yet to even average 2 SPG over a full season.

Another way to put it...did you think if everything had remained as is, that Johnsson would've scored 25 goals or so this year?  I think the chances of that would have been extremely remote.  He's an 11.7% career shooter who's shooting 11.0% this season, once things (predictably) evened out for him.  He's really right about where he should be and where he will be most seasons...unfortunately, "Where he should be" isn't very good.  He's on pace for about 15 goals right now over an 82 GP season...right about in line with his 16 G per 82 GP career rate.  Some seasons he might flirt with a 20+ G per 82 GP rate (with Toronto, he did shoot 15.7% overall one season, but those kinds of years will be outliers more than his norm), and some he'll struggle to reach a 15 G per 82 GP rate.

Point being that even Bratt wasn't going to keep Johnsson going much longer...and that's not on Bratt.  That's on Johnsson not being skilled enough to get consistent Top 6 minutes.  It's only a matter of time before he drags down whoever he's on a line with.      

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

One thing to note when you are looking at Nico compared to others taken in 2017 is that he has done the majority of his scoring 5v5.  76% of Nico's points have come at even strength.

Only Robert Thomas can best that from the 2017 class with a rather crazy 80%. 58% of Makars points have been at ES. Pettersson is at 62% and Heiskanen around 70%.

We all know how terrible the Devil's power play has been since Nico came in to the league (24th in the league combined sine 2017), and this will have affected his overall numbers.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Chimaira_Devil_#9

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

12 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

One thing to note when you are looking at Nico compared to others taken in 2017 is that he has done the majority of his scoring 5v5.  76% of Nico's points have come at even strength.

Only Robert Thomas can best that from the 2017 class with a rather crazy 80%. 58% of Makars points have been at ES. Pettersson is at 62% and Heiskanen around 70%.

We all know how terrible the Devil's power play has been since Nico came in to the league (24th in the league combined sine 2017), and this will have affected his overall numbers.

Good point, and if anything, you can see the beginnings of what could be when Jack and Nico are on the ice together for power plays.  I do think once the complete pile of uselessness that is Recchi is put of his misery, the power play should improve...I can't see how anyone does worse.

 

[mfitz804]

21 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

One thing to note when you are looking at Nico compared to others taken in 2017 is that he has done the majority of his scoring 5v5.  76% of Nico's points have come at even strength.

Only Robert Thomas can best that from the 2017 class with a rather crazy 80%. 58% of Makars points have been at ES. Pettersson is at 62% and Heiskanen around 70%.

We all know how terrible the Devil's power play has been since Nico came in to the league (24th in the league combined sine 2017), and this will have affected his overall numbers.

That's a surprising stat, although I'm not sure the comparison with Makar lines up well since he is a defenseman, and I feel like most teams have their offensive defenseman leasing the powerplay and hus, they are going to score more powerplay points. Not sure how Colorado runs theirs but I would be surprised to find he wasn't the quarterback. 

[DevsMan84]

3 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

How is it silly?  To score, you've gotta able to get shots on goal.  Johnsson has NEVER done that nearly enough...like I said, 34 shots over his first 19 GP this season (1.79 per game average...damn near EXACTLY the same as his career rate of 1.67).  If he was converting at his career shooting% of 11.7 (or even a little over), he'd have 4 goals instead of 9.  How many players in 2022 do you think are shooting 26.5% over full seasons...especially ones like Johnsson, who have very clear limitations?  Even Draisaitl, who's obviously a great shooter (guy has been a complete beast over the last four seasons, twice scoring 50 goals) shoots "only" 20%...but more importantly, the guy gets SOG...he's averaged 3.1 SPG over his last four years.  Johnsson has yet to even average 2 SPG over a full season.

Another way to put it...did you think if everything had remained as is, that Johnsson would've scored 25 goals or so this year?  I think the chances of that would have been extremely remote.  He's an 11.7% career shooter who's shooting 11.0% this season, once things (predictably) evened out for him.  He's really right about where he should be and where he will be most seasons...unfortunately, "Where he should be" isn't very good.  He's on pace for about 15 goals right now over an 82 GP season...right about in line with his 16 G per 82 GP career rate.  Some seasons he might flirt with a 20+ G per 82 GP rate (with Toronto, he did shoot 15.7% overall one season, but those kinds of years will be outliers more than his norm), and some he'll struggle to reach a 15 G per 82 GP rate.

Point being that even Bratt wasn't going to keep Johnsson going much longer...and that's not on Bratt.  That's on Johnsson not being skilled enough to get consistent Top 6 minutes.  It's only a matter of time before he drags down whoever he's on a line with.      

So he took the same amount of shots as his career average but more happened to go in the net when Bratt was on his wing than without him on his wing.  I really don't know how that doesn't prove my point even more in this case.

We say that centers tend to produce more when they have good wingers to pass to.  I guess that doesn't apply to Johnsson and Bratt since they are both wingers?  I say that kind of thinking is ridiculous.