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The "Man I was dead wrong about THAT" thread


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12 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

One thing to note when you are looking at Nico compared to others taken in 2017 is that he has done the majority of his scoring 5v5.  76% of Nico's points have come at even strength.

Only Robert Thomas can best that from the 2017 class with a rather crazy 80%. 58% of Makars points have been at ES. Pettersson is at 62% and Heiskanen around 70%.

We all know how terrible the Devil's power play has been since Nico came in to the league (24th in the league combined sine 2017), and this will have affected his overall numbers.

Good point, and if anything, you can see the beginnings of what could be when Jack and Nico are on the ice together for power plays.  I do think once the complete pile of uselessness that is Recchi is put of his misery, the power play should improve...I can't see how anyone does worse.

 

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21 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

One thing to note when you are looking at Nico compared to others taken in 2017 is that he has done the majority of his scoring 5v5.  76% of Nico's points have come at even strength.

Only Robert Thomas can best that from the 2017 class with a rather crazy 80%. 58% of Makars points have been at ES. Pettersson is at 62% and Heiskanen around 70%.

We all know how terrible the Devil's power play has been since Nico came in to the league (24th in the league combined sine 2017), and this will have affected his overall numbers.

That's a surprising stat, although I'm not sure the comparison with Makar lines up well since he is a defenseman, and I feel like most teams have their offensive defenseman leasing the powerplay and hus, they are going to score more powerplay points. Not sure how Colorado runs theirs but I would be surprised to find he wasn't the quarterback. 

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3 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

How is it silly?  To score, you've gotta able to get shots on goal.  Johnsson has NEVER done that nearly enough...like I said, 34 shots over his first 19 GP this season (1.79 per game average...damn near EXACTLY the same as his career rate of 1.67).  If he was converting at his career shooting% of 11.7 (or even a little over), he'd have 4 goals instead of 9.  How many players in 2022 do you think are shooting 26.5% over full seasons...especially ones like Johnsson, who have very clear limitations?  Even Draisaitl, who's obviously a great shooter (guy has been a complete beast over the last four seasons, twice scoring 50 goals) shoots "only" 20%...but more importantly, the guy gets SOG...he's averaged 3.1 SPG over his last four years.  Johnsson has yet to even average 2 SPG over a full season.

Another way to put it...did you think if everything had remained as is, that Johnsson would've scored 25 goals or so this year?  I think the chances of that would have been extremely remote.  He's an 11.7% career shooter who's shooting 11.0% this season, once things (predictably) evened out for him.  He's really right about where he should be and where he will be most seasons...unfortunately, "Where he should be" isn't very good.  He's on pace for about 15 goals right now over an 82 GP season...right about in line with his 16 G per 82 GP career rate.  Some seasons he might flirt with a 20+ G per 82 GP rate (with Toronto, he did shoot 15.7% overall one season, but those kinds of years will be outliers more than his norm), and some he'll struggle to reach a 15 G per 82 GP rate.

Point being that even Bratt wasn't going to keep Johnsson going much longer...and that's not on Bratt.  That's on Johnsson not being skilled enough to get consistent Top 6 minutes.  It's only a matter of time before he drags down whoever he's on a line with.      

So he took the same amount of shots as his career average but more happened to go in the net when Bratt was on his wing than without him on his wing.  I really don't know how that doesn't prove my point even more in this case.

We say that centers tend to produce more when they have good wingers to pass to.  I guess that doesn't apply to Johnsson and Bratt since they are both wingers?  I say that kind of thinking is ridiculous. 

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

That's a surprising stat, although I'm not sure the comparison with Makar lines up well since he is a defenseman, and I feel like most teams have their offensive defenseman leasing the powerplay and hus, they are going to score more powerplay points. Not sure how Colorado runs theirs but I would be surprised to find he wasn't the quarterback. 

Yeah that's a fair point.

Not sure on his usage but he is getting a lot of time on the power play, on average 4 minutes a game this season. Nico is at 2 minutes 45 seconds a game.

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1 hour ago, DevsMan84 said:

So he took the same amount of shots as his career average but more happened to go in the net when Bratt was on his wing than without him on his wing.  I really don't know how that doesn't prove my point even more in this case.

We say that centers tend to produce more when they have good wingers to pass to.  I guess that doesn't apply to Johnsson and Bratt since they are both wingers?  I say that kind of thinking is ridiculous. 

C’mon, Bratt has had a terrific year and his emergence has been fun to watch, but he’s not so magical that he can take a guy who for the most part is not a great shooter (and more importantly, doesn’t get enough shots on goal to begin with) and suddenly make him shoot over 26%.  ANYONE can enjoy fortuitous shooting luck over relatively short periods.  If Johnsson was suddenly seeing an appreciable increase in shots and scoring opportunities due to playing with Bratt (and a big decrease without), you’d have a much better case.  But you’re completely ignoring the one number that screams “prime candidate to regress”.  Agree to disagree.

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15 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

That's fine, but how does a team gets the 3rd or 4th best player in the top 5 in 2017?  I know we have been around this rodeo many times before, but when you use your 1st overall on that kind of player, your 6th overall on a player whose 3-4 players immediately after him are far better, and using late round picks on guys like Chase Stillman, someone is not doing their jobs right.

 

17 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

I wasn't saying you were dunking on me.  That was for our resident passive-aggressive poster.

As for Nico, he certainly got hot when we needed him least.  He also started to heat up once Bratt was put on his wing on a more consistent basis.  This is the same guy who somehow got Johnsson to be our second best player for a 10 game stretch early this season as well as get Mercer a lot of his early points as well.  Same goes with Sharangovich who started cooking when Hughes came back and was on his wing.

Wish these guys could come out of the gate with this kind of play from the get-go.  When that happens and not when we are 25-30+ points out of a playoff spot then I will be convinced.

You are using falls arguments.  1 Nico is 2nd-3rd best. 2. Couple of Bad picks(like Zacha and Stillman) doesn’t hurt with good management and better late picks. Ask tampa. 3. Nico was unlucked when devils have pretty good start. And than he did start to create points, when team start to falling down. 4. Mercer was productive without Bratt in some stretches. He is a rookie. 

 

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19 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

And even the bolded would still represent a nice jump.  He's producing at a 70 points per 82 GP clip over this season...it wasn't too long ago that his detractors wouldn't have thought such a thing was possible.  Like we've noted, he's becoming that ideal 2C to play behind Jack...but he's also showing that he can still produce even Jack's out of the lineup, when asked to fill in as a 1C.  

Re:  the whole Makar thing, all one has to do is look at the Devils' center situation at the time Nico was selected.  The Devils pretty much had to take a center, especially in a draft where there were two who were projected to go first and second...it's damned near impossible to get top young centers unless you draft them. 

And yeah I said it elsewhere, but if a new coach comes in and brings a competent defensive system that shaves the points off the Devils' top offensive players, fine.  It's about winning.     

Devils did the right picks. This is what it is. Fairytales about Makar are sweet, but they are fairytales. Everybody are smarter after days. That choice was between Nico and Patrick. Devils had gigantic need in center. No one knows how Makar development and production could go without Nathan M. Nico is 2nd-3rd best out of them, and Nico is very very good productive two way center 65p+. He actually is the thing, reason why and for he was drafted. It’s not Zacha or McLeod who were not living up to expectations. And after Luke’s draft we have our potential dynamo quarterback.

and the most fun part is Nico is productive this season no matter with whom he play. Better with better players, but still he create points by his own. And his deal is looking very good now.

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1 hour ago, McLeod41-20 said:

I thought after last season McLeod would take a step up and play to his strengths. Certainly started I  the right direction but that cliff face this half of the season has been steep

Every time I look at that McLeod pick I think "that was not a good selection" and then I think, "well we took Jeper Bratt in the 6th round, And if you swap those two around that's not a bad draft return."

But after a while I think "yeah but we could have selected Charlie MacAvoy or Jakob Chychurn AND still had Bratt." 

ALL in all the first round in 2016 was a mess. 

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5 hours ago, Guadana said:

Devils did the right picks. This is what it is. Fairytales about Makar are sweet, but they are fairytales. Everybody are smarter after days. That choice was between Nico and Patrick. Devils had gigantic need in center. No one knows how Makar development and production could go without Nathan M. Nico is 2nd-3rd best out of them, and Nico is very very good productive two way center 65p+. He actually is the thing, reason why and for he was drafted. It’s not Zacha or McLeod who were not living up to expectations. And after Luke’s draft we have our potential dynamo quarterback.

and the most fun part is Nico is productive this season no matter with whom he play. Better with better players, but still he create points by his own. And his deal is looking very good now.

Some teams, like Colorado, are able to draft Ratanen and Makar with their non #1 overall picks while we use those on McLeod and Zacha.  Seems like some teams are habitually smarter than the Devils during and after days as you put it.

And the choice that it was between Nico and Patrick and that's it has been disproven time and time again.

https://www.masslive.com/umass/2017/06/nhl_draft_2017_espn_projects_n.html

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15 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

C’mon, Bratt has had a terrific year and his emergence has been fun to watch, but he’s not so magical that he can take a guy who for the most part is not a great shooter (and more importantly, doesn’t get enough shots on goal to begin with) and suddenly make him shoot over 26%.  ANYONE can enjoy fortuitous shooting luck over relatively short periods.  If Johnsson was suddenly seeing an appreciable increase in shots and scoring opportunities due to playing with Bratt (and a big decrease without), you’d have a much better case.  But you’re completely ignoring the one number that screams “prime candidate to regress”.  Agree to disagree.

Bratt is a much better facilitator than a lot of other players that Johnsson has played with this season.  Yes, I think it is very realistic that having an about to be 70+ point player be a better person to either finish your passes or feed you golden opportunities than the likes of Kuokkanen, Bastian, McLeod, etc.

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2 hours ago, McLeod41-20 said:

While a McLeod fan its hard to pull together any argument after this season. His face-offs are good but the apparent gains in setting up that 4th line and cohesion have dropped off. I wish it were coaching but I'm unconvinced 

I really thought McLeod was turning the corner last year to a dangerous bottom 6 guy. Nothing big, but the kind of guy who can be trusted in his end and use speed to create a few chances here and there. He fell off this season though and I’m not sure why. 

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8 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

I really thought McLeod was turning the corner last year to a dangerous bottom 6 guy. Nothing big, but the kind of guy who can be trusted in his end and use speed to create a few chances here and there. He fell off this season though and I’m not sure why. 

Very disappointing indeed. He’s got another year on his very cheap contract, he should be making every effort to try to maximize his worth. Maybe he just doesn’t have it. 

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16 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Very disappointing indeed. He’s got another year on his very cheap contract, he should be making every effort to try to maximize his worth. Maybe he just doesn’t have it. 

Definitely can start to wonder about that.  He's one of those guys that I don't think it makes much difference if he stays or goes...yeah, pretty good on faceoffs, but nothing else about him at all stands out right now.  You can find lots of others to do what he does and you'd barely even notice someone else had taken his place.  Sucks that he was a #12OA, but it is what it is.  

40 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

Bratt is a much better facilitator than a lot of other players that Johnsson has played with this season.  Yes, I think it is very realistic that having an about to be 70+ point player be a better person to either finish your passes or feed you golden opportunities than the likes of Kuokkanen, Bastian, McLeod, etc.

If your argument is that playing on a line with Bratt can help some players with their production, sure, I get that...just not nearly to the extent that you're making it out to be, especially with a guy like Johnsson.  And my point is that Johnsson is not nearly good enough to have deserved to keep playing Top 6 minutes with Bratt...it was only a matter of time before he would've been exposed as such.  I've pointed out the reasons why...his shots per game with Bratt as his linemate didn't go up at all, really, and he needed to convert at an insane rate just to register 9 goals in 19 GP...the simple question is, do you think Johnsson would've finished with 35+ goals had he kept playing with Bratt?  No, what likely would've happened is that Johnsson may have flirted with 20-22 (assuming he played in all 82 games), but we'd be wishing that Bratt was skating with someone more worthy and more able to finish whatever chances Bratt might create for him.  Some guys have track records of high shot volumes or converting at higher rates (over full seasons) to help offset not racking up high shot volumes (and some even manage to do both).  Johnsson has neither of those skills...he's about a league-average shooter for his career who doesn't get enough shots.  His career year will likely have been 2018-19...given everything we know about him and what he (doesn't) bring, that's about the absolute maximum that I could ever expect to get out of a player like him.    

So to sum up:  all I'm saying is that Johnsson is not a Top 6 player, never will be.  He's a guy who occasionally sees some more of his shots go in when things are going his way and when he gets "hot", it can look like the beginnings of something good or a corner being turned, but it's only a matter of time before he reminds you how limited he really is, and how saddling good players like Bratt with having to prop up Johnsson-types isn't fair to those good players.  Put it this way...he was on a fairly low-cost contact for three more seasons, playing for a team that would LOVE to have potential production-for-bargain deals, in the Maple Leafs.  They even saw him score 17 goals in a 38-game stretch on their watch...and as you know, teams find ways to keep players who they strongly believe can be part of the solution in the years to come, even when having cap issues.  So what do the Leafs do?  With three years left on a cost-controlled deal, they deal him off for Joey Anderson...Joey fvcking Anderson, who's appeared in all of 5 games for them since that deal.  What does that tell you?  They knew Johnsson wasn't terribly good and instead of watching him struggle or be invisible for extended stretches (like he's been here and for much of his career), they smartly got out from under his deal and moved on.  Maybe he gets one last look somewhere else after here, but he's entering his late 20s and anyone who studies his numbers has to wonder "OK, so for this one stretch a number of years ago, he appeared to go nuts and shot 25%, and in another, shot over 26%, but his overall track record doesn't suggest that he'll ever do this again, and if he doesn't, what do I have?  A guy who might score 17-18 goals or so and doesn't appear to bring much of anything else?  Am I betting on another 'from out of nowhere' run that is likely to end as quickly as it might begin?"     

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3 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

Some teams, like Colorado, are able to draft Ratanen and Makar with their non #1 overall picks while we use those on McLeod and Zacha.  Seems like some teams are habitually smarter than the Devils during and after days as you put it.

And the choice that it was between Nico and Patrick and that's it has been disproven time and time again.

https://www.masslive.com/umass/2017/06/nhl_draft_2017_espn_projects_n.html

Yeah. Some draft Makar by their 4th. Some draft L Hughes. They did draft Makar, we draft Mercer and Holtz. With all guys we did draft we still have Nico and Jack. So. Yeah. That’s cool. Nico is freakin great no matter what are you trying to say, he absolutely deserve where he was picked and I think you are the only guy who doesn’t understand that Nico in Colorado would be much more better point producer than he was here, like Makar would be much worser. 

that’s GREAT Devils did draft Nico, because now we have two way productive center, we have very productive offensive center and after that we did draft his brother - offensive defenseman. If Makar was our pick, Devils easily could stay with only him in the roster.


your favorite team did draft very good two way center, it’s rare, but you are trying to be unhappy with it, I don’t know why. Zacha and McLeod? Yeah they didn’t live to expectations, great we did compensate it with Bratt and Yegor. Like we did say before - Yzerman have enough bad picks in first rounds. Colorado did draft Tyson Jost by their ten pick. I prefer Zacha. 
 

btw Nathan Mckinnon did have  206 points in his first 300 games. Nico has 203 points in 294 games.

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8 minutes ago, Guadana said:

btw Nathan Mckinnon did have  206 points in his first 300 games. Nico has 203 points in 294 games.

It's funny...I think almost to a fan, we've basically assumed that Nico reached his top end very early...his numbers over his first four seasons (which technically was less than three full seasons' worth of games) were what we began to think what he would always be...in part because his rate numbers over his first three seasons were very similar. 

He's at least showing signs that we may have underestimated what he could do offensively.  I think if you had asked fans "How many points does Nico have through 64 GP this year?", most would have guessed low-mid 40s.  Doubt anyone would thought that he would've bested his previous career high point total by five.  

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1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

It's funny...I think almost to a fan, we've basically assumed that Nico reached his top end very early...his numbers over his first four seasons (which technically was less than three full seasons' worth of games) were what we began to think what he would always be...in part because his rate numbers over his first three seasons were very similar. 

He's at least showing signs that we may have underestimated what he could do offensively.  I think if you had asked fans "How many points does Nico have through 64 GP this year?", most would have guessed low-mid 40s.  Doubt anyone would thought that he would've bested his previous career high point total by five.  

Would be great to see what he will reach next season, especially if he will have rantanen-level partner full season. May be they will play with Bratt full season. 

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