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End of season Poll


Chimaira_Devil_#9
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End of Season Review - Just how bad was it?  

45 members have voted

  1. 1. Based on my expectations at the start of the season the Devil's have:

    • Greatly exceeded my expectation
      0
    • Exceeded my expectation
      0
    • About what I expected
      7
    • Below what I expected
      21
    • Greatly below what I expected
      17
  2. 2. Who has been our MVP for the season?

    • Jack Hughes
      18
    • Jesper Bratt
      25
    • Nico Hischier
      1
    • Damon Severson
      0
    • Dawson Mercer
      0
    • Other
      1
  3. 3. Who has been the most disappointing

    • McKenzie Blackwood
      12
    • Janne Kuokkanen
      0
    • Andreas Johnnson
      0
    • Tomas Tatar
      0
    • Jonathan Bernier
      0
    • Ty Smith
      20
    • Anyone who suited up in Goal
      6
    • Pavel Zacha
      6
    • Dougie Hamilton
      1
    • Other
      0
  4. 4. Most pleasant surprise of the season?

    • Dawson Mercer
      17
    • Jesper Bratt
      15
    • Nico Hischier
      2
    • Yegor Sharangovich
      2
    • Ryan Graves
      1
    • PK Subban
      0
    • Other
      0
    • Jonas Siegenthaler
      8
  5. 5. If you were the GM what would be the first thing you would address this off-season other than the coaches

    • Goaltender
      26
    • Left wing
      1
    • Jasper Bratts contract
      4
    • Top pair D man
      1
    • I refuse to make a selection until the coaches are gone.
      13


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19 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

I actually think save % is a pretty decent top-level overview of a goalie's abilities at that time.

It's when they get into expected goals, deserve-to-win-o-meter's and those Fenwick/Corsi crap that I start rolling my eyes.

My issue with using SV%:

1) Goalie faces 20 shots directly into his crest and saves them all. 1.000.

2) Goalie faces 50 shots, guys are trying to pick the corners all night, goalie is doing acrobatics in the crease and he gets them all. 1.000. 

It also doesn't take into account what the team is doing in front of the goalie. If the defense is giving up 5 breakaways a game and constantly leaving people unmolested in the slot (Copyright 2021-22 Devils defense), a goalie is going to give up more goals despite whatever his abilities may be. Even the greatest goalies in history, I would imagine, if not 99.5% of them. 

 

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40 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

My issue with using SV%:

1) Goalie faces 20 shots directly into his crest and saves them all. 1.000.

2) Goalie faces 50 shots, guys are trying to pick the corners all night, goalie is doing acrobatics in the crease and he gets them all. 1.000. 

It also doesn't take into account what the team is doing in front of the goalie. If the defense is giving up 5 breakaways a game and constantly leaving people unmolested in the slot (Copyright 2021-22 Devils defense), a goalie is going to give up more goals despite whatever his abilities may be. Even the greatest goalies in history, I would imagine, if not 99.5% of them. 

 

True and that's why you really can't use small samples for that stat.  I would say you would need at least 5-10 games to get a sense.

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

My issue with using SV%:

1) Goalie faces 20 shots directly into his crest and saves them all. 1.000.

2) Goalie faces 50 shots, guys are trying to pick the corners all night, goalie is doing acrobatics in the crease and he gets them all. 1.000. 

It also doesn't take into account what the team is doing in front of the goalie. If the defense is giving up 5 breakaways a game and constantly leaving people unmolested in the slot (Copyright 2021-22 Devils defense), a goalie is going to give up more goals despite whatever his abilities may be. Even the greatest goalies in history, I would imagine, if not 99.5% of them. 

 

There are advance stats that take into account shot quality and try to account for the difference between a slap shot at 10ft and a 50ft wrist shot. 

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

When it gets to this level of mathematics I just tune out. I sucked at it at school and the last thing I want to do is to learn maths for Hockey. But I trust ther are people that have the ability and interest to do this sh!t and see if it works. 

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11 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

There are advance stats that take into account shot quality and try to account for the difference between a slap shot at 10ft and a 50ft wrist shot. 

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

When it gets to this level of mathematics I just tune out. I sucked at it at school and the last thing I want to do is to learn maths for Hockey. But I trust ther are people that have the ability and interest to do this sh!t and see if it works. 

Oh I agree 100%, that's not what I look at. To some extent you can do it with forwards, because if you are playing well, it should translate into actual scoring. You can "play well" and not score, but if you are playing well, eventually it will show up in those numbers and if it doesn't, that's a huge problem. 

But it gets harder with defense and goalies. Some people (on this board) just take a goalie's numbers and use that to say whether they are playing well or not, as if the goalie is the only reason the other team can score. 

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20 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

There are advance stats that take into account shot quality and try to account for the difference between a slap shot at 10ft and a 50ft wrist shot. 

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/explaining-dangerous-fenwick/

When it gets to this level of mathematics I just tune out. I sucked at it at school and the last thing I want to do is to learn maths for Hockey. But I trust ther are people that have the ability and interest to do this sh!t and see if it works. 

I spend at anywhere between 25-80% of every day of my work in Excel.  The last thing I need is to look at more spreadsheets for something that is meant to be for enjoyment.  Plus I have done enough work doing analytics in my work to know that 1) you can present data in many different permutations and draw a different conclusion in each and 2) hockey is way too fluid of a sport in comparison to say baseball, where 80%+ of action is between pitcher/batter/catcher to make stats all that useful.

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2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Oh I agree 100%, that's not what I look at. To some extent you can do it with forwards, because if you are playing well, it should translate into actual scoring. You can "play well" and not score, but if you are playing well, eventually it will show up in those numbers and if it doesn't, that's a huge problem. 

But it gets harder with defense and goalies. Some people (on this board) just take a goalie's numbers and use that to say whether they are playing well or not, as if the goalie is the only reason the other team can score. 

Again I think quite a few models look to account for the interplay between a goalie and the team on front of them. But at the end of the day I agree. Hockey is a team sport and not only that a team sport where there is an incredible amount of luck both good and bad. 

I really can't think of any other sport where there are so many additional factors that can determine an outcome of a game.  Also it's a game of moments and momentum and stats cannot account for single stupid plays which could cost a team a game.(Severson). 

I think analytics has its place in modern hockey and it's not going away, but it needs to be viewed on context of what is going on at ice level. 

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1 minute ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Again I think quite a few models look to account for the interplay between a goalie and the team on front of them. But at the end of the day I agree. Hockey is a team sport and not only that a team sport where there is an incredible amount of luck both good and bad. 

I really can't think of any other sport where there are so many additional factors that can determine an outcome of a game.  Also it's a game of moments and momentum and stats cannot account for single stupid plays which could cost a team a game.(Severson). 

I think analytics has its place in modern hockey and it's not going away, but it needs to be viewed on context of what is going on at ice level. 

We should make Severson% a thing. I think we could figure it out. 

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2 hours ago, DevsMan84 said:

I spend at anywhere between 25-80% of every day of my work in Excel.  The last thing I need is to look at more spreadsheets for something that is meant to be for enjoyment.  Plus I have done enough work doing analytics in my work to know that 1) you can present data in many different permutations and draw a different conclusion in each and 2) hockey is way too fluid of a sport in comparison to say baseball, where 80%+ of action is between pitcher/batter/catcher to make stats all that useful.

No I hear that , my job has become a lot more data heavy over the last three years and I feel the same. 

And like Homer Simpson said statistics 

homer3.jpg.86e23a678db843626a5b65d86d74864b.jpg

The thing I find amusing is the fact that people are so anti analytics for no real reason. But that is just society these days I guess. You can just be neutral towards anything. 

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4 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

We should make Severson% a thing. I think we could figure it out. 

Haha, It's true though. How does that play against the Leafs where he just stopped skating and left a man completely open get counted? It will still go down as one shot on goal. Something needs to factor in catastrophic errors. 

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Just now, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Haha, It's true though. How does that play against the Leafs where he just stopped skating and left a man completely open get counted? It will still go down as one shot on goal. Something needs to factor in catastrophic errors. 

All you can say about that is “at least Damon didn’t score an own goal”. 

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