What to do with #2?

[Chuck the Duck]

On 5/16/2022 at 9:45 PM, Nicomo said:

Montreal is not going to pass up the chance to take a Canadian kid who’s been the consensus 1OA for the last couple years. Especially with the draft being in their building - in front of their own fans. Wright also plays a position of need for them. They have nothing at center outside of Suzuki. 

Can you imagine them taking Cooley with the #1 pick.  Those fans would riot and burn that building to the ground.  Count me in for that level of chaos.

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Chuck the Duck

[Nicomo]

13 minutes ago, MB3 said:

 

Food for thought. Let's just say you're allowed to guarantee best case scenario here, and Nemec 100% turns into a Hedman-type player, while Slavkovsky 100% turns into a Rantanen type player. Who do you choose? 

Obviously Hedman. And I’m a big Rantanen guy. 

[MadDog2020]

16 minutes ago, MB3 said:

 

Food for thought. Let's just say you're allowed to guarantee best case scenario here, and Nemec 100% turns into a Hedman-type player, while Slavkovsky 100% turns into a Rantanen type player. Who do you choose? 

Give me the d-man, every time. If dude turns into Hedman, give him to me. Chicks dig goals… but defense STILL wins championships. 

[Nicomo]

Btw it’s probably best to take Byron Bader’s takes with a grain of salt. I know a lot of the folks that really follow the draft process see him as a bit of a joke. 

[McLeod41-20]

On 5/17/2022 at 10:58 AM, mfitz804 said:

Well that’s less than credible lol. 

Hey that's adequate 4th liner McLeod you are..... oh who am I kidding 🤦‍♂️ wasn't top 5 then and certainly sitting mediocre 5 currently

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

8 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Btw it’s probably best to take Byron Bader’s takes with a grain of salt. I know a lot of the folks that really follow the draft process see him as a bit of a joke. 

I think his work is good and it gives a nice visual , but it will always suffer from  having to  compare performance across different leagues and the level of competition at the time in that league.  

[Nicomo]

49 minutes ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

I think his work is good and it gives a nice visual , but it will always suffer from  having to  compare performance across different leagues and the level of competition at the time in that league.  

Everyone trying to scout this sport deals with that though. I’ve just seen some pretty out there takes from him. For example last year he didn’t even have Power or Beniers in his top 5. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Nicomo

[Jimmy Leeds]

On 5/16/2022 at 9:00 PM, mfitz804 said:

And interesting to see wtf we do if he is still available. 

We grab him

[Chimaira_Devil_#9]

7 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Everyone trying to scout this sport deals with that though. I’ve just seen some pretty out there takes from him. For example last year he didn’t even have Power or Beniers in his top 5. 

Agreed,  but this guy isn't saying "oh he reminds me of such and such" he is saying statistically this player is on par with this player. And as far as I can tell it does not account for the quality of the team mates that the individual is playing with. 

So Luke could go back to Michigan next year, put up the same points and regress on this model, yet have picked up harder minutes and played on what is looking like a weaker team. 

[Guadana]

20 hours ago, MB3 said:

 

Food for thought. Let's just say you're allowed to guarantee best case scenario here, and Nemec 100% turns into a Hedman-type player, while Slavkovsky 100% turns into a Rantanen type player. Who do you choose? 

Don’t listen Bader. He is the worst. He is absolutely svcking and understand nothing. And he doesn’t watch hockey.

 

he did rank Raymond as only 6th!

He had Sanderson at 13, behind Zion Nybeck. Fockin Nybeck! Guy with meh skating and height of dwarf.

Other highlights from 2020:
10 Stutzle
14 Pashin
15 Grans
18 Lundell
20 Quinn
22 Foerster
23 Coangelo
25 Johanneson
27 Ovchinnikov
30 Finley
32 Poirier
Unranked: Holloway
Unranked: Guhle
Unranked: Reichel
Unranked: Schneider
Unranked: Neighbors
Unranked: Grieg

(thanks, Steve)

Baders job is nothing. Skills, league, roles, partners, maturing, who cares. 
 

Rantanen is much more shooter, Slafkovsky is more playmaker. With better skating, but Rantanen is little bit faster. I would say Slafkovsky play much better as forechecker at the same age.

Nemec and Slaf are very good. But it is too early to call someone new Rantanen or new Hedman. Because if everybody know that Rantanen is Rantanen, he would be top 3 or may be even top 2 pick. We should compare Slafkovsky, Nemec or Jiricek, and not trying to compare Rantanen and Hedman.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Guadana

[Guadana]

46 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I don’t know enough about them to compare them, that’s why I said “best case scenario” which was their top end comparable players. 

I understand the concept. But I think it’s never working. Players are gonna be Players, not “new Petrov” or “ new Ivanov”. Or they gonna be sh1t. 
Anyway, that’s awesome, that in the end of rebuilding process we could draft this guys. It’s a potential star level players, who have big chances to be a star, because they are great and they will have great partners. And they will be devils players for 11 years+ in theirs prime.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Guadana

[moustic]

 

[mfitz804]

7 minutes ago, moustic said:

 

I would like to draft this gentleman. 

What is Shane Wright up to?

[moustic]

Let's hope Montreal doesn't have internet anymore... 

[mfitz804]

11 minutes ago, moustic said:

Let's hope Montreal doesn't have internet anymore... 

I doubt they can resist the Canadian kid. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

33 minutes ago, MB3 said:

holy fvcking hell. gimme gimme gimme

our resident experts: is slafkovsky NHL ready or will we need to wait a year?

FWIW, here's a list of 2nd-overalls...as with any list, you got some serious busts in there:

NHL Draft History - 2nd Pick Overall (thehockeywriters.com)

I had no idea Tverdorsky went 2OA in his draft.  I remember when the Devils dealt for Zyuzin with the hope that they could turn him around...he lasted all of 39 games here...wound up getting claimed off waivers by the Wild.

Not going to pretend to know how close this kid is to the NHL, but it almost seems like 1OA and 2OA picks often play in the NHL right away by default.  And that kid would definitely fit a specific need.  

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 minutes ago, MB3 said:

I'm not seeing too many busts. Ryan Murray was a whiff. Patrick, too, but that was injury-related. Too early to call Kakko a bust, but he sure doesn't look like a franchise-type player. 

But since 02, you've got  Staal, Malkin, Ryan, Staal again, JVR, Doughty, Hedman, Seguin, Landeskog, Murray, Barkov, Reinhart, Eichel, Laine, Patrick, Svechnikov, Kakko, Byfield, and Beniers. In that list I only count two surefire busts. I'll take those odds. 

Well yeah, I wasn't starting a debate as to whether or not I'd take those odds, or ever said "Look at all the busts in there"; I never put a quantity to the actual amount of busts, just mentioned that there were some, and there are.  Go back into the 1990s and you've got Falloon and Chyzowski...and then you've got the guys who clearly had the talent, but due to general lack of motivation, didn't get as much as out of their abilities as they should have (like Sylvian Turgeon, Jimmy Carson).  And yeah, some guys like Murray and Patrick were derailed by injuries, which can happen to anyone.

In agreement that I can't call Kakko a bust yet (much as I'd love to). 

But yeah, goes without saying, chances are at #2OA you're going to come away with, at the very least, a solid contributor who (as long as he stays healthy) should be able to help your team for several years, with a good chance that most of his prime years will be spent on your team, with not too long of a development cycle.    

[nessus]

2 hours ago, MB3 said:

holy fvcking hell. gimme gimme gimme

our resident experts: is slafkovsky NHL ready or will we need to wait a year?

In my opinion, it's a Luke Hughes type of situation. Slaf obviously has the physicality to hold his own in the NHL. But I think he would benefit from refining his game a bit. I believe his upside to be just huge, and I truly hope the Devils pick him, but he's not without his flaws at this stage of his development. Because of his skill level, he can often be careless, trying to do too much or be too fancy. It can often lead to rushes in the opposite direction. He has the work ethic to recover from these mistakes sometimes, but I would like to see him tighten up some of these things before getting to the NHL. In lesser leagues, I feel that these sorts of things are passable, but in the NHL, it'll limit his ice time.

But man is his potential just sky high. This player could be the most electrifying winger the Devils have had since Kovalchuk.

[nessus]

This Wright/Slafkovsky situation is kind of funny. Wright has been the unanimous #1 pick for years, so we assume we'll get the next best thing in Slafkovsky. So we get attached to that idea, and watch him a bit closer. We see highlights of him dominating at the WC, and now we hope that Montreal doesn't get any ideas about taking our guy instead. When in reality, that just means we would take the unanimous #1, which we should be very happy about.  It wasn't long ago that the world (me included) felt that Wright was head and shoulders above everyone else, and that there were many players who could conceivably go second.

I certainly am not above that mindset. I think that Slafkovsky may be ranked second overall,  but his upside is probably higher than anyone's in this entire draft. I think Wright will be a great NHL player, and I think he is ready to come into the NHL and be productive right from the start. Slafkovsky needs some time to smooth out the edges, and a few things need to go right for him to reach his potential. I see it as high risk/high reward for Slaf, but low risk/high reward for Wright.

To me, this is similar to the position the Devils were in back in 2019. They had a top center in Hischier (Suzuki), and had an opportunity to surround him with a big, strong, goal scoring winger in Kakko (Slafkovsky), but it made so much more sense to draft the highly skilled future franchise center in Hughes (Wright) to solidify the top 2 centers for the foreseeable future. Obviously not a perfect comparison because each pair of Hischier/Suzuki, Kakko/Slaf, and Hughes/Wright is not made up of super similar players - but definitely makes for a comparable setup when leading up to the draft. Now if you're Montreal, picking first overall in front of your fans (draft is in Montreal this summer), who do you take? There is a lot of pressure to not mess up your first overall pick. As much as I like Slaf, I think you have to take the player who has been the consensus top player from this draft for years. Shane Wright's numbers have been slightly lower than what you'd normally expect from a unanimous #1 overall, but scouts know that he had a slow start (after not playing much the previous season), and subsequently went on a tear. They also know that he ended up with that kind of production while spending the year focusing on developing the defensive side of his game. 

I'm confident that Montreal will make the...Wright choice. But if there's one team to go against the grain (e.g. pick Logan Mailloux in the first round after he asked not to be drafted at all), it's Montreal.

 

[Nicomo]

I think the Habs having such a new GM all but guarantees he’ll go with the safer pick. 

[Devilsfan118]

Latest 31 thoughts, Friedman notes Devils are looking at names* they'd consider trading the 2OA for.

For me, the list (realistically) starts and ends at matthew tkachuk

Edited May 22, 2022 by Devilsfan118

[MadDog2020]

1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Latest 31 thoughts, Friedman notes Devils are looking at games they'd consider trading the 2OA for.

For me, the list (realistically) starts and ends at matthew tkachuk

Yep. He’s the guy I want if we’re moving #2. 

[SterioDesign]

On 5/21/2022 at 12:01 PM, nessus said:

This Wright/Slafkovsky situation is kind of funny. Wright has been the unanimous #1 pick for years, so we assume we'll get the next best thing in Slafkovsky. So we get attached to that idea, and watch him a bit closer. We see highlights of him dominating at the WC, and now we hope that Montreal doesn't get any ideas about taking our guy instead. When in reality, that just means we would take the unanimous #1, which we should be very happy about.  It wasn't long ago that the world (me included) felt that Wright was head and shoulders above everyone else, and that there were many players who could conceivably go second.

I certainly am not above that mindset. I think that Slafkovsky may be ranked second overall,  but his upside is probably higher than anyone's in this entire draft. I think Wright will be a great NHL player, and I think he is ready to come into the NHL and be productive right from the start. Slafkovsky needs some time to smooth out the edges, and a few things need to go right for him to reach his potential. I see it as high risk/high reward for Slaf, but low risk/high reward for Wright.

To me, this is similar to the position the Devils were in back in 2019. They had a top center in Hischier (Suzuki), and had an opportunity to surround him with a big, strong, goal scoring winger in Kakko (Slafkovsky), but it made so much more sense to draft the highly skilled future franchise center in Hughes (Wright) to solidify the top 2 centers for the foreseeable future. Obviously not a perfect comparison because each pair of Hischier/Suzuki, Kakko/Slaf, and Hughes/Wright is not made up of super similar players - but definitely makes for a comparable setup when leading up to the draft. Now if you're Montreal, picking first overall in front of your fans (draft is in Montreal this summer), who do you take? There is a lot of pressure to not mess up your first overall pick. As much as I like Slaf, I think you have to take the player who has been the consensus top player from this draft for years. Shane Wright's numbers have been slightly lower than what you'd normally expect from a unanimous #1 overall, but scouts know that he had a slow start (after not playing much the previous season), and subsequently went on a tear. They also know that he ended up with that kind of production while spending the year focusing on developing the defensive side of his game. 

I'm confident that Montreal will make the...Wright choice. But if there's one team to go against the grain (e.g. pick Logan Mailloux in the first round after he asked not to be drafted at all), it's Montreal.

 

Yeah especially after they went off the board and drafted Kotkaniemi with #3 when he was projected in the 5-10 range. And it didn't work out too well so i think they'll want to be very safe

[nessus]

On one hand, it makes sense as a GM to say you're open to moving the pick and looking at all the options. Maybe some teams will put an offer on the table that would really blow you away. On the other hand, hearing that is a bit concerning. It makes very little sense to move this pick, and difficult to find a scenario that would be worth it. You have the opportunity to take a player who is likely no more than a year away from making an impact at the NHL, and he'll be cost controlled, and most likely filling a major organizational need. 

I'm with MD2020 in that it'll have to be a Matt Tkachuk level player, or Mikko Rantanen, or Igor Shesterkin, for me to think this makes sense. And I highly doubt that any of those types get moved for 2 OA. Rumors are that Ottawa is trying to get that pick. If it involves the wrong Tkachuk, that would be a disaster for this organization.

The narrative of "Juraj, stop playing so well so the Habs don't get any ideas" is going to quickly change to "Juraj, keep playing well so Fitz doesn't get any ideas".

Edited May 22, 2022 by nessus

[SterioDesign]

5 hours ago, nessus said:

On one hand, it makes sense as a GM to say you're open to moving the pick and looking at all the options. Maybe some teams will put an offer on the table that would really blow you away. On the other hand, hearing that is a bit concerning. It makes very little sense to move this pick, and difficult to find a scenario that would be worth it. You have the opportunity to take a player who is likely no more than a year away from making an impact at the NHL, and he'll be cost controlled, and most likely filling a major organizational need. 

I'm with MD2020 in that it'll have to be a Matt Tkachuk level player, or Mikko Rantanen, or Igor Shesterkin, for me to think this makes sense. And I highly doubt that any of those types get moved for 2 OA. Rumors are that Ottawa is trying to get that pick. If it involves the wrong Tkachuk, that would be a disaster for this organization.

The narrative of "Juraj, stop playing so well so the Habs don't get any ideas" is going to quickly change to "Juraj, keep playing well so Fitz doesn't get any ideas".

What's the downside of being open to options though?

As a GM it's literally your job to look at all options and see if something could potentially make your team better. If there's nothing, you don't make a trade and pick the player. That's it.

Also it's giving time for GMs to potentially prepare offers and have discussions for all scenarios.

Imagine a scenario where MTL pick Slafkvosky and suddenly we're on the clock and have to announce our selection. You think only then Fitz would start taking calls and make such a huge decision rushed as the clock is ticking? well no, the point of letting it known is that other gms reach out and get a feel of what a price might be for this or that and depending on how things play how well you know your options.

If he's well prepared. Chances are MTL pick Slafkosvky and then Fitz already know "alright so i know Arizona was willing to trade up for this price... i know this other team would also be interested in case Wright fell to us and they were willing to offer this... etc etc... you have to be fully prepare and know a LOT going into the draft.

Edited May 23, 2022 by SterioDesign