Jonas Siegenthaler re-signs, 5 years, $3.4 million AAV

[SterioDesign]

3 minutes ago, RizzMB30 said:

Well, my issue with both Anderson and Meier is that they aren't Tarasenko or Miller, buut I like the idea of those guys maybe bring a pick this way possibly. Didn't Anderson know Jack from USNTDP? Severson bring back one of those two plus a pick or something. 

Maybe Fitz is fine with staying patient for right now to see how the season starts. Some of these guys who had 100+ points will fall back to earth a little I think, minus McJesus and Matthews. Maybe all the RHD's coming in freak out Severson a little bit and he plays lights out based on competition and actually wanting to stay here. Either way, it's fine to just let him walk too. I wouldn't be crazy about it, but we'll be fine even if we get nothing for him. 

Bratt's hearing is on August 3rd for arbitration
Wood's is set for August 6th, but the Devils filed for arbitration while Bratt filed for it as a player. 

I think the case with Wood for team-filed is that we can't walk away from whatever the arbitrator awards unless it is for more than like 5.2 million a year or something. 

Well Timo is 25 years old and Tarasenko is 31 and had injury issues so that's something to keep in mind too

[RizzMB30]

6 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Well Timo is 25 years old and Tarasenko is 31 and had injury issues so that's something to keep in mind too

Fair enough, but Tarasenko is basically a lock for 60+ points if he stays healthy. Meier seems good too though after looking over his basic stats. Like I was saying, I see a lot of players numbers falling back a little this year. Not saying the high scoring was a fluke or anything, just a feeling. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by RizzMB30

[SterioDesign]

1 minute ago, RizzMB30 said:

Fair enough, but Tarasenko is basically a lock for 60+ points if he stays healthy. Meier seems good too though after looking over his basic stats. Like I was saying, I see a lot of players numbers falling back a little this year. Not saying the high scoring was a fluke or anything, just a feeling. 

For sure but Tarasenko might be a lock for 60 for maybe what? 2 more seasons? forward tend to fall off a cliff in their early 30s. Timo may get a bit less points but he could bring that for longer i feel

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 minute ago, devlman said:

Yup they’d love to pair him with his buddy Eklund. That’d kickstart a rebuild.

Guess the next question is do you think Holtz can be just as productive (or more so) than Timo to date?  I'll throw out Timo's first two seasons (clearly developmental years), but over the last four years, he's put up 99 G and 123 A in 279 GP.  Basically 29 G and 36 A per 82 GP on average, but as you'll see over those four seasons, he's kinda all over the place.

I'll admit it, I can't pencil in Holtz for that kind of production...not saying he absolutely CAN'T do it, just that I'm not fully convinced that he will.  And even if he does, how long will it take him to develop to that level?  If you're getting Timo, the idea is that you're basically bypassing development/growing pain seasons for a guy who can slide right onto Nico's wing and instantly produce.  Assuming Meier would want to sign, I'd have to consider it.    

[SterioDesign]

1 minute ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Guess the next question is do you think Holtz can be just as productive (or more so) than Timo to date?  I'll throw out Timo's first two seasons (clearly developmental years), but over the last four years, he's put up 99 G and 123 A in 279 GP.  Basically 29 G and 36 A per 82 GP on average, but as you'll see over those four seasons, he's kinda all over the place.

I'll admit it, I can't pencil in Holtz for that kind of production...not saying he absolutely CAN'T do it, just that I'm not fully convinced that he will.  And even if he does, how long will it take him to develop to that level?  If you're getting Timo, the idea is that you're basically bypassing development/growing pain seasons for a guy who can slide right onto Nico's wing and instantly produce.  Assuming Meier would want to sign, I'd have to consider it.    

Plus like i mentioned earlier Timo definitely has a a strong chemistry with Hischier. They are always playing well together at the national level

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

2 minutes ago, MB3 said:

You have to treat Timo like a rental, again, because of his contract status. The cost to qualify him is $9.5m. He is well within his rights to simply accept his QO and then walk the following year. 

I think any trade for Meier has to be done with an extension in mind. And I don't think the Sharks have any interest in Severson, as San Jose is about to be in a deep dark and yucky rebuild for a long long time. 

Yeah the Devils would have to make sure he'd want to stick around.

And yeah read the posts above...this deal would likely revolve around Holtz and youth going back the other way.  Of course if you're convinced Holtz will develop fairly quickly and can put up similar numbers to Timo, then you probably don't make this deal, as Holtz is cost-controlled for a while and doesn't figure to make big money for a least a few years (probably longer).  If you're not sold on Holtz ever matching what Timo's doing now and are willing to pony up for an extension for him (as long as it's not ridiculous), then you go for it.  

[Guadana]

1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

That's kind of what i'm thinking... There's a real possibility that in a few years this guy is on our 3rd pairing simply cause there's better guys ahead. So this deal is perfect. Unlike say if Severson drops to the first pairing (or Subban last year)... you can't have guys getting paid that much on your 3rd pairing.. well... you "can" but its not ideal.

Im really digging this deal.

Oh lol

Well to be fair, even when he wasn't banned he'd do the same exact thing. So i couldn't really see the difference haha

Yeah. This is how you build contender. Good role players on cheap deals plus very talented leaders. Of course good coaching too. Siegenthaler easily could be our third paring guy who play toughest minutes. He could be our first pairing guy. Because the real hockey isn’t a thing from ps5, where you are using players because of their rank. Sergachyov did play in third pair.

This is how guy like Nemec or Luke Hughes will play on the third pair even after some years when both will be in good shape. Because you wanna protect the guy like Luke. You can use them both in pp if you want. But for now if I was a coach I’m not put both of them on the ice in offensive zone, because I know who they are and they were not great against opponents transition. Even on their level.

Im ok to have balanced duos like Siegenthaler-Nemec, Luke-Marino, Okhotyuk-Hamilton. Or something like that(I like my example, because you have experienced guy in every pair) And I can’t say who is a first, second or third pair. Just give them all enough minutes.

Siegethaler, Okhotyuk and Marino are all very mobile defensive first guys who can help and protect their partners. Leddy is that kind of guy, I’m very intriguing how he will develop his game, how he will adapt his game on the new level. He has A LOT of defensive tools. Very interesting guy. Barabosha too, he is more physical but I think his style is very translatable, especially on the shorter rinks, because he is fast enough and very mobile. There are a lot of good defensive prospects in the pool, Fitz did a great job. We can easily replace injured defenseman without losing competence in defensive zone. Of course guy like Vukojevic  can’t replace Luke’s offensive potential, but he can be good enough in own zone to play shorter minutes. Bahl isn’t as mobile, his starting speed isn’t good enough in my taste, but he has awesome gap control, he is great in the dirty areas and if he will be smart enough and coaches will be smart enough, they will find ways to use him in the right directions, where he haven’t to use his starting speed. 
 

Hope Fitz will trade some of this guys for power forward prospects at least. Everybody needs in good defensive depth, and there are no team in entire NHL who have as good defensive prospect pool as ours. Some team have may be better prospects like Ottawa or Buffalo or Detroit, but they don’t have as many good ones. Guy like Casey could easily be number one defensive prospect in A LOT of teams. But he isn’t even a top-4 in devils depth chart for now. May be even not top-5.

[devlman]

56 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Guess the next question is do you think Holtz can be just as productive (or more so) than Timo to date?  I'll throw out Timo's first two seasons (clearly developmental years), but over the last four years, he's put up 99 G and 123 A in 279 GP.  Basically 29 G and 36 A per 82 GP on average, but as you'll see over those four seasons, he's kinda all over the place.

I'll admit it, I can't pencil in Holtz for that kind of production...not saying he absolutely CAN'T do it, just that I'm not fully convinced that he will.  And even if he does, how long will it take him to develop to that level?  If you're getting Timo, the idea is that you're basically bypassing development/growing pain seasons for a guy who can slide right onto Nico's wing and instantly produce.  Assuming Meier would want to sign, I'd have to consider it.    

All true, although you’d be giving up those 3 ELC contract years and almost six years in age. 

I’ve said before how I think Holtz is going to be a star in this league, and may be as soon as this season. I think 30 goal seasons can be the norm for him playing next to Jack. So for me, he’s got higher value than Timo.

The other piece to this is that our prospect pool is absolutely stacked to the point where we could produce a package without Holtz, Hughes, Nemec that could still entice San Jose.

[Patrick Sundstrom Ghost]

The thing we all should be thinking about is what if we trade Severson & even Graves for future assets, be it a prospect like say a power winger who was drafted in the last 2 drafts or future picks.

I know we all want a quick fix and using Severson to get that top 6 winger makes sense, but if it's not available, like say San Jose, where he does not fit, we should use Severson to get more assets we can then use in a trade or for the Devils own future.

I know that might not be a popular thought, but I think Severson's value currently is pretty high and we should look to maximize it, even if it does not lead to immediate help from the team we trade him to.

[EdgeControl]

6 hours ago, MB3 said:

Wonder if this also opens the door a little bit for the Devils to shop Gravy at the deadline. If I'm choosing between Graves and Severson I choose Graves every time, but if the Devils aren't in a playoff spot at the deadline they've got several guys that could net a pretty big haul -- Severson, Graves, Haula, hell, even Tatar was traded for a 1st-2nd-3rd not too long ago; if he pots a few I wouldn't bet against him fetching a second at the deadline. 

important year for graves, if he gives us what he did last year I dont see us resigning him. to me hes a second pairing guy on a wildcard team.. but its hard to judge based on our goaltending last year

Edited July 26, 2022 by EdgeControl

[SterioDesign]

9 minutes ago, EdgeControl said:

important year for graves, if he gives us what he did last year I dont see us resigning him. to me hes a second pairing guy on a wildcard team.. but its hard to judge based on our goaltending last year

Goaltending and the Nasraddine effect

[Derek21]

6 hours ago, MB3 said:

The value of Miller is perplexing to me. I saw on r/hockey the other day that someone posted an article proposing a Damon Severson + Shaquir Mukhmadulin for JT Miller trade. 

• Every neutral fan said "that seems like fair value and a good trade for both teams."
• Devils fans were outraged. "I wouldn't even trade Severson straight up for Miller! Horrendous idea! You can't have Shaq! Typical pathetic Canadian media!!!"
• Canucks fans were even more outraged. All of their proposals from the devils included Holtz or Mercer, Severson, and an unprotected 1st round pick. 

On the one hand, Miller just scored 99 points. You'd have to go back to (checks notes) never to find a Devils forward who scored 99 points. Only 4 have ever even hit 90 -- Parise on 08/09, Hall in 17/18, Muller in 87/88, and Elias in 00/01. Over the past three seasons he's been playing at an 88 P/82 pace. That's 12th best in the entire sport.

On the other hand, he's probably a pure rental. The Devils probably can't and probably shouldn't entertain signing a 30 year old off a career year to a mega deal. He's not nearly the player as Gaudreau, and he'll likely cost just as much. He played a very protected role in Vancouver last year, and he had his big breakout year the season where everyone and their sister had their biggest breakout year. 

I probably pass on a Severson/Shaq trade. Vancouver almost definitely passes on a direct Severson/Miller swap. I do wonder if there's a dancing partner there, though.

J.T. brings a lot to the table. He's not only a player who can produce at five-on-five and on the power play. But he's strong on face-offs (54.1 pct in '21-22). He kills penalties. He hits and is good at takeaways. 

The Canucks are probably keeping him for now because they can compete in that division. They re-signed Boeser and added Mikheyev and Kuzmenko to a good core. Demko is a top 10 starter. The defense is the question. 

Why trade him now? I would wait. They have until March. If he is available, it'll be to a contender who'll pay a little more.

I think the Devils could move Graves or Severson before the season. It'll depend on Nemec. Both will be gone by the deadline. Wait until Luke Hughes arrives. He can score goals. Great skater. Impressive. The Marino addition was smart. 

[nessus]

This is such an amazing deal for the Devils, almost unfair for Jonas, which speaks to what a player he has become.

I like the idea of doing the Tampa model for defense. Instead of a top pair with the two top guys, they had 3 very solid pairs. For the Devils, they can expect to have one of Dougie, Nemec, and Luke on the ice at all times. And they'd be paired with Siegs, Marino, and one other rock solid defensive player (Okhotiuk, Mukhamadullin, one of the 2022-drafted prospects, etc.). That would be a great thing for this team.

Unfortunately, it's looking more and more like the writing is on the wall for Severson. As much as the organization seems to like him, they're running out of cap space, and keeping Severson doesn't seem to have been a priority. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

26 minutes ago, nessus said:

This is such an amazing deal for the Devils, almost unfair for Jonas, which speaks to what a player he has become.

I like the idea of doing the Tampa model for defense. Instead of a top pair with the two top guys, they had 3 very solid pairs. For the Devils, they can expect to have one of Dougie, Nemec, and Luke on the ice at all times. And they'd be paired with Siegs, Marino, and one other rock solid defensive player (Okhotiuk, Mukhamadullin, one of the 2022-drafted prospects, etc.). That would be a great thing for this team.

Unfortunately, it's looking more and more like the writing is on the wall for Severson. As much as the organization seems to like him, they're running out of cap space, and keeping Severson doesn't seem to have been a priority. 

Yeah L Hughes and Nemec (and the promise of what they can be) has pretty much made Seves obsolete…especially considering what he’s about to be paid.  Siegs has a much better chance to be cost-effective at his future hit of $3.4 million (doesn’t kick in until 2023-24) than Seves will at $5.5 - 6 million AAV.

I wouldn’t mind Graves coming back, but I’m not sure Fitz wants to pay him.  

[Guadana]

Again. Don’t pay your guy, overpay for a guy from other teams. It’s not a great strategy.

Yegor did play first long season and after didn’t have any rest. He scores on the wing of Zajac, Hughes and Hischier in the end of second season. He have absolutely best shot between roster players. Score 17 in 50 and 24 in 75. When player score 25-30 goals it’s not about scoring one goal in every third game. They are stricty. If Fitz will sign him long term now for 4-4.5 mil now, it would be miracle for the team. 3-3.5 is a joke. If he will score 25-30 goals next season, his price will go higher. And even if he will sleep for the first 15-20 games again, no one will care again, because he will have three seasons with 25-27 goals per 82 games. And tools are there, partners are there. 
But I understand that he isn’t stupid to not know that. He will gamble on himself, because odds are good. And this summer he make the rest.

Anyway I think playmaking game limit him, so I hope even with 30 goals he will not hit 60-65 points, and will ask 6-6.5mil max. Meier will ask 7.5mil minimum, I believe 8-8.5 + is his price and I don’t think he will score much more goals in devils uniform. I like the guy, but the price is huge. If Fitz will trade him for Holtz plus the first round pick I’m ok, but if he will ask 8.5-9 mil? He easily can. Anyway Yegor and Palat are our top 6 left wingers. Gritsyuk is one year away, but we don’t know how politics could change or may be he will decide to take big two years deal with home team and burn another one elc year. We don’t have a lot of top-6 option besides Sharangovich for now. I hope Holtz or Zetterlund will pan out and we will have option to play Bratt on the left side. But for now it is only hope. If we will trade Meier and sign him for 8 mil long term, we still need to sign Sharangovich now. Btw it would be great to have Yegor, Meier, Palat on the left side and Bratt, Mercer and Holtz/Zetterlund on the right side in top 9. Sounds deadly. Just for reasonable money please.

 

Thompson is an interesting candidate too. Good skating, good shoot, he added muscles. Hope his health will be better this year. I like our defense now. Our long term defense is looking sexy with Siegs and Marino now, and long term signs of good role players long term will help too. Even if the role is the scorer.