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Your New Jersey Devils Regular Season Thread: 2022-2023 Edition


Crisis

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5 hours ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

Your first chart is goals for, we know Haula isn’t scoring. It’s also mislabeled, the last column appears to be TOI minutes per goal or Haula would be scoring 300 goals per minute.  Your second chart is using Bratt as the 3rd player but Hughes has been playing recently with Tatar and Haula. He plays with Bratt on the powerplay which is going to skew those numbers. Not sure if that was a convenient accident or not. That third chart looks like expected goals and I personally don’t put much stock in that. It’s also showing that the expected goals for is 2 times as high with Haula in the 6th column (2.9 vs 6)

 The reason Ruff says he likes Haula there is the possession numbers and because Jack produces more the more he has a chance to get the puck. Personally I’d prefer Palat (who I also think can help with possession) on the left and Sharangovich/Mercer/Holtz on the right. I don’t see the point of Tatar there. I’d love Bratt on the right but he and Nico work well together and I get the idea of keeping Bratt and Jack separate. Haula I like at 3rd line center with Tatar and whoever isn’t with Jack, so Mercer or Sharangovich 

Yes, the first and most important point is that Haula is not scoring goals, as we can see with the first chart.  The second and third charts are 5v5 and both show that per 60 minutes the xGF is higher is higher without Haula.  Maybe Haula gets a scoring touch during the second half of the season and Ruff looks like a genius.  Hauls did score 29 goals with Vegas and 18 last year with the Bruins.  If Ruff has confidence that his team will win because of the underlying numbers, such as, Corsi%, xGF%, HDCS%, etc.  why doesn’t he have the same confidence with individual players playing together?  I hate to say, but limiting ice time for some players seems sinister and suppresses the overall performance of players that are on the last year of their contracts.  Maybe I’m overthinking.

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This is definitely a "Jack's clearly capable of making guys better (or at the very least capable of setting guys up with glorious chances), so let's see what he can do with a couple of guys who do actually have some offensive ability" kind of move.  Curious to see if this line makes it into a game.   

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11 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

This is definitely a "Jack's clearly capable of making guys better (or at the very least capable of setting guys up with glorious chances), so let's see what he can do with a couple of guys who do actually have some offensive ability" kind of move.  Curious to see if this line makes into a game.   

Both of those guys have looked a million times more effective when playing with Jack. The real questions are “what the fvck took so long” and “but why is Palat on the third line”. 

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1 hour ago, Puckbuster said:

Yes, the first and most important point is that Haula is not scoring goals, as we can see with the first chart.  The second and third charts are 5v5 and both show that per 60 minutes the xGF is higher is higher without Haula.  Maybe Haula gets a scoring touch during the second half of the season and Ruff looks like a genius.  Hauls did score 29 goals with Vegas and 18 last year with the Bruins.  If Ruff has confidence that his team will win because of the underlying numbers, such as, Corsi%, xGF%, HDCS%, etc.  why doesn’t he have the same confidence with individual players playing together?  I hate to say, but limiting ice time for some players seems sinister and suppresses the overall performance of players that are on the last year of their contracts.  Maybe I’m overthinking.

You might be reading too far into it, I don’t think they’d sacrifice team success to suppress any individual players. I think Ruff just really takes possession numbers to heart. But the good news is it appears that he’s finally broken that line up. I’d prefer Palat with Jack but I’ll take Sharangovich and Mercer for now. 

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19 minutes ago, Devil Dan 56 said:

You might be reading too far into it, I don’t think they’d sacrifice team success to suppress any individual players. I think Ruff just really takes possession numbers to heart. But the good news is it appears that he’s finally broken that line up. I’d prefer Palat with Jack but I’ll take Sharangovich and Mercer for now. 

I have hated Shar's game for the last month or so. He's been making bad decisions with the puck, particularly in the offensive zone, so if what the possession numbers said about Haula were true I hope this doesn't end up hurting Jack in the long run. None of Haula, Mercer, or Shar are scoring either so I'm not sure if that'll make a difference.

Fingers crossed.

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55 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

This is definitely a "Jack's clearly capable of making guys better (or at the very least capable of setting guys up with glorious chances), so let's see what he can do with a couple of guys who do actually have some offensive ability" kind of move.  Curious to see if this line makes into a game.   

half of me is ok with this but the other half makes me remember the 1.5 seasons the devils tried to convince us that Janne Kuokkonen was a real hockey player by shoving him on nico/jack’s line and I’m not excited for them to do the same with Sharangovich. 

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30 minutes ago, MB3 said:

half of me is ok with this but the other half makes me remember the 1.5 seasons the devils tried to convince us that Janne Kuokkonen was a real hockey player by shoving him on nico/jack’s line and I’m not excited for them to do the same with Sharangovich. 

At the very least it signals "Now or never pal", re:  Sharangovich.  Enough with the second-half teases...you get to play with the Devils' best player who's clearly figured things out and you WILL get great chances.  If you can't get it going now then maybe you're just not that good.  

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16 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

At the very least it signals "Now or never pal", re:  Sharangovich.  Enough with the second-half teases...you get to play with the Devils' best player who's clearly figured things out and you WILL get great chances.  If you can't get it going now then maybe you're just not that good.  

sort of an empty threat when the GM has said wing is a pivotal position for 2 years and the only acquisition has been a tier-B free agent. 

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55 minutes ago, MB3 said:

half of me is ok with this but the other half makes me remember the 1.5 seasons the devils tried to convince us that Janne Kuokkonen was a real hockey player by shoving him on nico/jack’s line and I’m not excited for them to do the same with Sharangovich. 

"Advanced stat that says Sharangovich is an All-Star during the minutes he plays with Jack".

I don't know what that stat is so I literally just typed out what it would show lol. Call it the Shango%. 

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3 minutes ago, MB3 said:

sort of an empty threat when the GM has said wing is a pivotal position for 2 years and the only acquisition has been a tier-B free agent. 

He has a lot of money coming off the cap.  If he wants to address the wing situation, he'll have the means to do it.  The big question of course is what the hell is Holtz going to turn into?  He represents the idea young "from within" talent but that actually has to happen...and right now that's still iffy.  

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25 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

He has a lot of money coming off the cap.  If he wants to address the wing situation, he'll have the means to do it.  The big question of course is what the hell is Holtz going to turn into?  He represents the idea young "from within" talent but that actually has to happen...and right now that's still iffy.  

he had the means to do it with gaudreau but got outbid by colombus. he had the trade ammunition for debrincat and fiala but he stayed put and drafted Nemec instead when he was caught with his pants around his ankles after the late Montreal surge for Slafkovsky hit the news. 

I have no faith in him ever actually addressing the massive first line winger gap as our GM.

“believe it when I see it” 

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1 minute ago, Muevelos said:

Yegor and Mercer have the tools, it also took Bratt a number of seasons before he got it all going. He looked Ehh for a few seasons himself. 

sharangovich is the same age as Jesper Bratt. if you don’t look like a top-line winger at 24-25 years old, you very likely will never look like a top-line winger.

i’m much more patient with mercer

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2 minutes ago, MB3 said:

he had the means to do it with gaudreau but got outbid by colombus. he had the trade ammunition for debrincat and fiala but he stayed put and drafted Nemec instead when he was caught with his pants around his ankles after the late Montreal surge for Slafkovsky hit the news. 

I have no faith in him ever actually addressing the massive first line winger gap as our GM.

“believe it when I see it” 

Gaudreau didn't really want to come here, as it turned out, even though negotiations went deep...that's really working out well for him.  Re:  DeBrincat and Fiala, the Devils' first rounder was too high to give up for either one of them; if their pick was closer to 10th overall, maybe Fitz is willing to package that for either.  Looks like Nemec is going to turn out to be a plenty fine pick at least, though we do have to see him play in the NHL.  Slaf of course is already in the NHL (almost no one from the 2022 draft is playing for their big clubs), but he's having a typical "lots to learn" season, as many barely-legal-adults often do.  Not like was going to have an instant impact.  

Fitz isn't perfect by any means but he did make some solid moves this offseason (VV, Marino, hopefully Palat pays off, locking up Siegs to reasonable coin, as he did with VV).  But yes he has to find a way to address the wing situation before the start of next season.       

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15 minutes ago, MB3 said:

sharangovich is the same age as Jesper Bratt. if you don’t look like a top-line winger at 24-25 years old, you very likely will never look like a top-line winger.

i’m much more patient with mercer

But that's the thing, Yegor is likely to remain cheap enough that he can be a very effective 3rd line guy, which is not unexpected from a guy you drafted 141st overall. 

Problem isn't Yegor, its having too few top 6 wingers and having to misuse guys. 

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42 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Gaudreau didn't really want to come here, as it turned out, even though negotiations went deep...that's really working out well for him.  Re:  DeBrincat and Fiala, the Devils' first rounder was too high to give up for either one of them; if their pick was closer to 10th overall, maybe Fitz is willing to package that for either.  Looks like Nemec is going to turn out to be a plenty fine pick at least, though we do have to see him play in the NHL.  Slaf of course is already in the NHL (almost no one from the 2022 draft is playing for their big clubs), but he's having a typical "lots to learn" season, as many barely-legal-adults often do.  Not like was going to have an instant impact.  

Fitz isn't perfect by any means but he did make some solid moves this offseason (VV, Marino, hopefully Palat pays off, locking up Siegs to reasonable coin, as he did with VV).  But yes he has to find a way to address the wing situation before the start of next season.       

the first thing just isn’t true. in his interview it became obvious he was going to the highest bidder. paraphrasing, but he said “new jersey had the highest offer, they were the team i was likely going to go to, but jarmo called my agent and said “if we can offer X would he consider columbus” and we said yes, so we went there.” the chiclets guys asked him if he took less to go to Columbus, and he flat out said “no”.

fitz drew a line in the sand and assumed/expected gaudreau would take their offer as it was the highest on the table. he assumed wrong, and gaudreau went to Columbus. 

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10 minutes ago, MB3 said:

i should again reiterate that if sharangovich can play with a little bit more effort and intensity i think he’s fine for a third line player. my problem is seeing him in the top-6, where he’s so often been slated.

Once again, I reiterate, that is more of an issue of how thin our roster is. He plays top six minutes out of necessity, while our bottom six is filled with guys who are fourth liners at best, or perhaps belong in the AHL or Europe.

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