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Colorado Rockies 1976

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8 hours ago, RizzMB30 said:


I thought the whole point of Matthews was he is a UFA on July 1st. He can't both be UFA and have a NTC can he? Was it Tavares? 

Either way that sh!t suuuuucks. I think they have blow up the defense corps and make a change to the core forwards. I think one of Nylander or Matthews is on the way out. 


For all the draft capital they had at one point. I wouldn't call anyone on their defense "elite". Even Morgan Rielly was pretty meh all season. I have no idea how someone fixes their d corps or if they don't renew Dubas, who can come in and fix that mess. They don't have any draft capital to pick up defensemen and develop them and that's a hole in their roster imo. Their defense just isn't anything special really and the playoffs are notorious for singling out and exposing the defensemen around the league to tough play. 

Not even going to start on the goaltenders. They can't afford much. 

It all revolves around Matthews IMO.   If he’s willing to re-sign, he’s still plenty young enough to re-tool around.   Then you’re probably looking at using Nylander and Marner to acquire a top pair defenseman in one trade and maybe a dreaded quality for quantity trade in the other, because you’re right that they’ve pissed away all their draft capital.  Between his salary and NTC, they probably just have to ride out the Tavares contract with the goal of better allocating that cap space two summers from now.  
 

if Matthews doesn’t want to re-sign, then oh boy, I have no idea where they go from here.  

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Another interesting one will be the Predators.   It feels like their window has passed but they still have veterans with the following contracts:

Josi for 5 years

duchene for 3 years

RyJo for 2 years 

McDonagh for 2 years 

Forsberg for 7 years 

Saros for 2 years 

At least they started moving pieces for picks this past year, so their drafts should start yielding help.   With Askarov in the fold over the next few years, they could move Saros to a contender for additional picks if they wanted to.   
 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/predators

 

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44 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

It all revolves around Matthews IMO.   If he’s willing to re-sign, he’s still plenty young enough to re-tool around.   Then you’re probably looking at using Nylander and Marner to acquire a top pair defenseman in one trade and maybe a dreaded quality for quantity trade in the other, because you’re right that they’ve pissed away all their draft capital.  Between his salary and NTC, they probably just have to ride out the Tavares contract with the goal of better allocating that cap space two summers from now.  
 

if Matthews doesn’t want to re-sign, then oh boy, I have no idea where they go from here.  

Matthews has said that he wants to stay.

I can see the Leafs knocking down the Devils' door trying to pry Nemec away, but no way do I bite.  I love the idea of Luke and Nemec being with this club for a long time.  Also concerned about all of those Leafs' potential cap hits down the line.  

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7 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Matthews has said that he wants to stay.

 

Ha, well so has Bratt and I don't think you could say otherwise in the exit interviews.   I believe he wants to stay but at what price point?   I think they probably will get him locked up but he does have them in a position where he has ALL of the leverage.   

Not sure the Leafs have anything that we realistically would want to add for the price it would cost because I'm sure they're not going to be looking to move a Nylander for a different perimeter forward like Bratt who also wants top dollar.  

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9 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

Ha, well so has Bratt and I don't think you could say otherwise in the exit interviews.   I believe he wants to stay but at what price point?   I think they probably will get him locked up but he does have them in a position where he has ALL of the leverage.   

Not sure the Leafs have anything that we realistically would want to add for the price it would cost because I'm sure they're not going to be looking to move a Nylander for a different perimeter forward like Bratt who also wants top dollar.  

Yeah I'm with you in that I actually have to SEE a guy who says that he wants to stay actually do just that...but FWIW, at least Matthews wasn't vague or evasive.  There's players who clearly take that tact, and then later you find out that even if they were good soldiers and still gave it their all before they left, they weren't really THAT interested in coming back.

The funny thing is I think that these Leafs would LOVE to stay together and give it another go...but it's very clearly reached a point where they've used up all of their chances.  They never got it done.  

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2 hours ago, Lateralous said:

Ha, well so has Bratt and I don't think you could say otherwise in the exit interviews.   I believe he wants to stay but at what price point?   I think they probably will get him locked up but he does have them in a position where he has ALL of the leverage.   

Not sure the Leafs have anything that we realistically would want to add for the price it would cost because I'm sure they're not going to be looking to move a Nylander for a different perimeter forward like Bratt who also wants top dollar.  

Exactly. Everyone has a price and I could see TOR basically saying, "if you want to stay, here is the deal. No sign, no want to stay". If he doesn't want to sign or frags his feet they trade him before the NTC kicks in to avoid losing him for nothing.

I could see it coming down to zero hour but I don't see Matthews going anywhere else.

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31 minutes ago, NJDevils1214 said:

Exactly. Everyone has a price and I could see TOR basically saying, "if you want to stay, here is the deal. No sign, no want to stay". If he doesn't want to sign or frags his feet they trade him before the NTC kicks in to avoid losing him for nothing.

I could see it coming down to zero hour but I don't see Matthews going anywhere else.

I think Toronto is going to find the potential returns for whoever they make available not what they hoped for...they won't come away empty-handed, but everyone knows that the Leafs are up against it and will only have so many teams willing to shell out assets AND pay up to keep any of these players long-term.

For example, I can see them knocking on NJ's door hoping to get Bratt (yes he'll get paid but not to the kind of 8-figure coin Matthews, Tavares and Marner are getting) and Nemec for Marner.  I can see the Devils (once they stop laughing at the idea of Nemec being involved) offering Casey, Holtz, and other pieces (maybe a 2nd and a 3rd that become a conditional first if Marner re-signed)...of course that's assuming they'd have ANY interest in paying almost $11 million AAV for Marner for the next two seasons (which I don't think Fitz does).  

No, if I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I'm not at all thrilled with that return either.  But how many teams are going to willing to pony up for a guy that they'll already have to pay top dollar to as it is, and will only be cost-controlled for two seasons?  That's where the Leafs are flat-out screwed.  Those guys can all leave for nothing way too soon, and all but Nylander take up a sh!tload of cap space...Leafs may even have to eat some money to get a team to bite.  

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47 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I think Toronto is going to find the potential returns for whoever they make available not what they hoped for...they won't come away empty-handed, but everyone knows that the Leafs are up against it and will only have so many teams willing to shell out assets AND pay up to keep any of these players long-term.

For example, I can see them knocking on NJ's door hoping to get Bratt (yes he'll get paid but not to the kind of 8-figure coin Matthews, Tavares and Marner are getting) and Nemec for Marner.  I can see the Devils (once they stop laughing at the idea of Nemec being involved) offering Casey, Holtz, and other pieces (maybe a 2nd and a 3rd that become a conditional first if Marner re-signed)...of course that's assuming they'd have ANY interest in paying almost $11 million AAV for Marner for the next two seasons (which I don't think Fitz does).  

No, if I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I'm not at all thrilled with that return either.  But how many teams are going to willing to pony up for a guy that they'll already have to pay top dollar to as it is, and will only be cost-controlled for two seasons?  That's where the Leafs are flat-out screwed.  Those guys can all leave for nothing way too soon, and all but Nylander take up a sh!tload of cap space...Leafs may even have to eat some money to get a team to bite.  


Yeah, I agree. This great experiment of 4 elite core fowards all getting paid at least 10 million a year is over and it's a good thing for the rest of the league. You gotta have more high end defensemen than that to go on a run. Obviously guys want to get paid and they should, but I think it's a good time to point out that getting guys to buy in is so important. Winning teams are built around deals like Marino and Siegs contracts. adding a little bit of term and underpaying a little bit. Would anyone disagree that Marino and Siegs could easily be worth 5-7 million dollars a year if on the open market this year? I mean...Graves and Severson are looking at making at least 5 million a year and that further illustrates why I don't think either will be back. We just can't afford paying each of them (Graves & Seves) 5 million a year and keep Bratt & Meier at 8m-9m+ a year. I think maybe you could convince one of graves or seves to take 4-4.5 for another 1 or 2 years, but I think I'd rather let our 2 kids get started. A lot depends on L Hughes and Nemec hitting the ground running. 

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1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I think Toronto is going to find the potential returns for whoever they make available not what they hoped for...they won't come away empty-handed, but everyone knows that the Leafs are up against it and will only have so many teams willing to shell out assets AND pay up to keep any of these players long-term.

For example, I can see them knocking on NJ's door hoping to get Bratt (yes he'll get paid but not to the kind of 8-figure coin Matthews, Tavares and Marner are getting) and Nemec for Marner.  I can see the Devils (once they stop laughing at the idea of Nemec being involved) offering Casey, Holtz, and other pieces (maybe a 2nd and a 3rd that become a conditional first if Marner re-signed)...of course that's assuming they'd have ANY interest in paying almost $11 million AAV for Marner for the next two seasons (which I don't think Fitz does).  

No, if I'm the Leafs or a Leafs fan, I'm not at all thrilled with that return either.  But how many teams are going to willing to pony up for a guy that they'll already have to pay top dollar to as it is, and will only be cost-controlled for two seasons?  That's where the Leafs are flat-out screwed.  Those guys can all leave for nothing way too soon, and all but Nylander take up a sh!tload of cap space...Leafs may even have to eat some money to get a team to bite.  

Idk what else I want to say about this but it would be a massive deal. He's so expensive you'd have to up-end your entire team outlook in the dollars, let alone the cost to get him from TOR even if it was discounted for the leverage. There's only a handful of teams, maybe a bit more, that can make a 13mm contract work and that's if they wanted to do it. He'd also have to be willing to play there long term, no one is doing that for a one year fling. To your point about the need for salary retention, I agree and it would only make it more expensive and less palatable. Going to be interesting.

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22 minutes ago, RizzMB30 said:


Yeah, I agree. This great experiment of 4 elite core fowards all getting paid at least 10 million a year is over and it's a good thing for the rest of the league. You gotta have more high end defensemen than that to go on a run. Obviously guys want to get paid and they should, but I think it's a good time to point out that getting guys to buy in is so important. Winning teams are built around deals like Marino and Siegs contracts. adding a little bit of term and underpaying a little bit. Would anyone disagree that Marino and Siegs could easily be worth 5-7 million dollars a year if on the open market this year? I mean...Graves and Severson are looking at making at least 5 million a year and that further illustrates why I don't think either will be back. We just can't afford paying each of them (Graves & Seves) 5 million a year and keep Bratt & Meier at 8m-9m+ a year. I think maybe you could convince one of graves or seves to take 4-4.5 for another 1 or 2 years, but I think I'd rather let our 2 kids get started. A lot depends on L Hughes and Nemec hitting the ground running. 

You also have to be willing to gamble on certain young guys...like Fitz did with giving Nico 7 years and Jack 8 years, at significant (but not over the top) coin.  They're relative bargains now and will be for quite some time.

Marino is probably worth $6 million AAV and Siegs $5 million AAV in today's market.  Devils obviously have them locked up for much less...Fitz was smart to offer term to Siegs, and to take advantage of a complete dope in Ron Hextall in acquiring Marino.

And yeah, been said a bunch, but Graves and Seves won't be back.  Some team will be dumb enough to give Seves at least $6 million AAV for five years...maybe even close to $7 million AAV...there will be that "Well we gotta do SOMETHING!" team that will make that kind of mistake out of desperation*.  I'd say Seves is worth something like $5 - 5.5 million AAV these days.  Ideally he'd take up a little less than $5 million AAV but everyone knows how it tend to go in UFA.  He'll get overpaid, and so will Graves...when you have +41 and +34 seasons under your belt, some will assume you're some killer shutdown-type...and Graves is no scrub, but if he was a baseball player, he'd be Nick Swisher.  A guy who when facing tougher competition every game (especially in the playoffs) suddenly looks like he has little business being there.

 

*This is exactly what Fitz managed to avoid.  He had the cap space to make a backpage splash and resisted, even though it meant asking a LOT of patience out of the fanbase.  So many of those kinds of moves not only don't make a whole lot of difference, but they can screw up cap room later.  Hamilton at least made sense, in that he filled an obvious need, was still in his 20s at the time, and the Devils absolutely had the room to make a big hit work.  I also believe signings like that can be good mostly because they signal to your fanbase "OK, still work to be done, but we're in it now!  It's not going to be about collecting draft picks and being sellers every year at the deadline much longer!"  It's when there's not much of a core in place and you sign some 31-year-old to an expensive 6+ year contract...that's the kind of deal that just doesn't do much more than generate backpage interest.

 

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2 minutes ago, NJDevils1214 said:

Idk what else I want to say about this but it would be a massive deal. He's so expensive you'd have to up-end your entire team outlook in the dollars, let alone the cost to get him from TOR even if it was discounted for the leverage. There's only a handful of teams, maybe a bit more, that can make a 13mm contract work and that's if they wanted to do it. He'd also have to be willing to play there long term, no one is doing that for a one year fling. To your point about the need for salary retention, I agree and it would only make it more expensive and less palatable. Going to be interesting.

Anyone who gets dealt is going to have to decide what really matters to him.  The Leafs' over-$10 million AAV crowd have technically already got theirs...they may wanna think about $9 million or so AAV the next time, instead of hoping for stratospheric raises.  If your name isn't Connor McDavid it's really hard to justify $11+ million per season for ya.

Yeah, I do think the Leafs are going to be shocked when they find that teams only want to give up so much for guys who, while terrific players, haven't won jack sh!t and are expensive as fvck.  I just don't think most teams are all that eager to sign players up to 8-figure contracts.  

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I was reading about Boston’s cap issues because of the bonus laden contracts this past year for Bergeron and Krejci and came across this article discussing the possibilities going forward if they both retire.  I’m probably as big of a Zacha supporter as there is on this board but this article still made me laugh. 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-bruins/2023/05/16/bruins-offseason-patrice-bergeron-center-david-krejci-pavel-zacha/

 

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2 hours ago, Lateralous said:

I was reading about Boston’s cap issues because of the bonus laden contracts this past year for Bergeron and Krejci and came across this article discussing the possibilities going forward if they both retire.  I’m probably as big of a Zacha supporter as there is on this board but this article still made me laugh. 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-bruins/2023/05/16/bruins-offseason-patrice-bergeron-center-david-krejci-pavel-zacha/

 

I get the optimism after his first full season there, but when you have to add the caveat of needing "elite wingers," it kinda diminishes the overall purpose of him being the driving force.

Maybe I'm wrong and Monty is the coach that can save him, but I'm still not convinced he truly is top 6 material and is middle 6 at best

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18 minutes ago, jagknife said:

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/tempe-voters-decide-future-of-coyotes-franchise-in-arizona-on-tuesday

Yotes could find out their fate as early as 11pm tonight (eastern)...

‘The Coyotes have attempted to influence the vote in as many ways as possible, including having their hockey operations management team and executives conduct a grassroots-style campaign by quite literally going door-to-door in recent weeks and months to solicit a ‘yes’ vote. Yes, seriously, Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong has been knocking on doors.‘ 

That is pathetic.

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9 minutes ago, jagknife said:

not looking good for the Yotes.

Nope, gotta be the end of the road for the Coyotes at this point, maybe move to Houston?...

https://www.12news.com/article/sports/nhl/coyotes/voters-approve-proposal-coyotes-arena-tempe-early-results/75-a0e6f9b1-412f-4f1f-bd9c-d80d66ecde81

 

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Certainly reads like they are done in Arizona...

 

"While we wanted a different outcome, we remain grateful to all those who volunteered their time and talent. What is next for the franchise will be evaluated by our owners and the National Hockey League over the coming weeks."

 

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