Patrik Elias: Where Art Thou?

[devilsrule33]

Where is he right now? I haven't really been able to see any of the games this year but what is going on? Is he even on the radar screen?

Here are some stats and might I add that they are very scary.

-He has been held pointless in 19 games this year, which is 63% of the games he has played.

-He has scored in only 4 games this season. Might I add from the highlights I have seen, none of them have been very nice goals.

-Going back to last January, he has scored a grand total of 12 goals. That is almost an entire season and he has only 12 goals. Let me put that in perspective for everyone. In that same time John Madden has 19 goals. Jay Pandolfo has 16 goals. Sergei Brylin has 11 goals and Aaron Asham has 9.

-Aaron Voros has one less goal than him this season.

This isn't just a slump anymore. Patrik Elias is just not the same player. We have him for 5 more years on the cap at 5 million a year. I don't even think anyone would want him at that price. What do we do with him? I don't want to trade him but as every game goes by I realize more and more how unproductive he has become.

Edited December 17, 2007 by devilsrule33

[thefiestygoat]

You bring up a lot of good stats that I never heard/thought about. I remember checking his tsn player page before tonight's game and he was on pace for 45 points, which is unacceptable. I agree that it has to be something more than just a slump at this point, its just been too long. I think we may have been spoiled when he came back after being ill and was just dominating game after game. But for what he makes, and what he has shown in the past, there is no reason he should not be getting at least 60 points per year minimum.

[Devs4LIFE]

The truth is he has been playing a lot better, he is just having trouble finding the back of the net.

[overtime98]

The truth is he has been playing a lot better, he is just having trouble finding the back of the net.

Yes. I agree

Elias will be fine.

[njdevsfn95]

Elias' most productive seasons were when he played with players that could a) pass him the puck in scoring positions and b) put the puck in the net when he passes it to them!

he had Gomez who could put the puck right where he needed it, but never really has had a player would could bury the puck since Sykora and Arnott.

if Sutter were to allow Elias to gain chemistry (as a centerman) with Gionta and Zubrus (or another winger), he could put up 70+ pts easily.

as much as Elias hasnt been scoring, he has NOT been a detriment to this team.

[The 29th Pick]

Yes. I agree

Elias will be fine.

He had that beauty in overtime against Boston, but I dont think he's what he was 5 years ago, lets see what he does in the playoffs this year, that's where he can earn his phat paycheck.

Maybe he's sick of Sutter changing the lines all the time???? Maybe he'll waive his no trade clause if there was a deal in the works???

[hattrick]

PE is getting bad calls against him like a high sticking double minor. Luckily it turned out to be a penalty shot save and short handed goal for his Devils.

Edited December 17, 2007 by hattrick

[metallidevils]

Elias' most productive seasons were when he played with players that could a) pass him the puck in scoring positions and b) put the puck in the net when he passes it to them!

he had Gomez who could put the puck right where he needed it, but never really has had a player would could bury the puck since Sykora and Arnott.

if Sutter were to allow Elias to gain chemistry (as a centerman) with Gionta and Zubrus (or another winger), he could put up 70+ pts easily.

as much as Elias hasnt been scoring, he has NOT been a detriment to this team.

He HAS been a detriment to the team, in the sense that if you're going to pay a guy 6 million a year to basically have almost no effect on the outcome of the game, I'd rather spend the money elsewhere. If you're going to get paid 6 million a year, you better be able to generate some of your own offense. He's not playing with the A line, but the guys he is playing with are talented enough that you can't use this as an excuse. If your argument for him not being a detriment is that 'well we have no one to replace him', then you're not realizing that the 6 million can be spent elsewhere. Spending 3 million each on two guys, who have similar stats to say, zubrus, would at this point almost certainly outproduce Elias, and add a little more depth to the team, so when one guy goes down, Mike Rupp doesnt have to play. If Elias doesn't improve (having one good game isnt an overall improvement - I mean if he doesnt consistently improve) then having this guy locked in on a no movement clause for the next half dozen years at 6 million per...well if that's not a detriment, I don't know what is.

What bothers me just as much as the lack of goal scoring is his no look passes in the offensive zone. I honestly can't remember any time this has worked, and it almost always results in a breakout for the other team.

Edited December 17, 2007 by metallidevils

[metallidevils]

there is no reason he should not be getting at least 60 points per year minimum.

I haven't paid too much attention to the salaries of other big names in the NHL. But, is this even acceptable? 6 million for 60 points, is basically a million bucks for every 10 points (his defensive skills arent bad, but they're not good enough that you'd pay extra for them, at least IMO). I mean, if the Devils pay a million bucks for a guy, he'd better get more than 10 points.

I mean, when you look at a guy like Arod in baseball, he's making close to 30 million, but if, say, the yankees said bye to him, and got a 3B worthy of, say, 10 million, a 1b worth about the same, and an outfielder (I can't remember offhand what the state of their outfield is), then those 3 players would outproduce Arod + crappy players at 1st and OF. Now, because the yankees pretty much can spend whatever they want, they can afford not to have crappy players at other positions. But given the salary cap, the Devils can't do this. Elias is making 6 million, and we have some minor league defenseman, and Rupp being our go-to guy on the bench, and people like Brylin still getting ice time. Spending 2 million each on 3 players, or 3 million on 2 players, would, pretty much without a doubt, outproduce anything that Elias will do, unless he does a 180 turnaround. This is pretty much why, IMO, with a salary cap, you can't spend large amounts of money on a single guy unless they really are, night in and night out, going to produce. As much as the Zubrus signing was somewhat odd, in the longrun spending medium amounts of money on a guy like him will presumably get you more bang for your buck than a guy like Elias.

If I'm completely wrong here, I'd appreciate knowing why. It seems to make sense to me though, haha.

[njdevsfn95]

metallidevils:

his cap it notwithstanding, only 1 player on the team is having a 1pt/gm season.

i assume that many fans (me included) believe he should be a 1pt/gm player at least.

in that case he is just underperforming. but with only ONE player on the team (remember, there were NO 1pt/gm players last season) at that pace, then he cant possibly be a detriment.

[metallidevils]

metallidevils:

his cap it notwithstanding, only 1 player on the team is having a 1pt/gm season.

i assume that many fans (me included) believe he should be a 1pt/gm player at least.

in that case he is just underperforming. but with only ONE player on the team (remember, there were NO 1pt/gm players last season) at that pace, then he cant possibly be a detriment.

You missed my point, though. Obviously having Elias in the lineup is better than benching him. I never said anything to the contrary (well, maybe benching him once in a while would get his head back in the game, but I don't mean to imply that the devils lineup is better without him than with him). What I'm saying is, spending the money on a guy who makes a million bucks for every 10 points is a detriment to the team, when spending less money on more players of lesser skill than elias, and weeding out the worse players on our lineup, is going to result in more points.

I'll try stating this again. For example, in roughly 30 games, Elias has 17 points, Brylin has 7. between the two of them, 24 points in 30 games. If Elias' 6 million could go to 2 players @ roughly 3 million each, you could probably get 2 guys roughly of Zubrus' skill, who is probably underachieving a bit himself, but has 17 points, a little more than half a point a game. Giving Elias' salary to 2 guys who are capable of half a point a game, would result in Elias being gone, Brylin being benched, a little more bench depth (get rid of rupp!) and two guys together will almost certainly break 82 points in 82 games, something which Elias and Brylin probably wont even do.

I know that this is all wishful thinking, but over a period of a few years I think it would've been possible for that 6 mil to go a long way.

Edited December 17, 2007 by metallidevils

[NJDevs4978]

Elias was dead weight tonight. I thought he was back after that virtuoso performance a couple weeks ago. Since then he's pretty much been pointless. I'll never say he's back again until he puts together at least 'two' good games in a row.

He has had some clutch goals this year but sheesh. This is getting beyond annoying now.

Edited December 17, 2007 by Hasan4978

[devilsfan26]

I agree that it's not just a slump. He simply is not who he used to be, which is sad because he used to be a lot of fun to watch.

I think if he waives his no-movement clause we still could trade him, there are probably teams out there who are willing to take a chance and believe he is still capable of what he used to do, but as time goes on there is probably less and less chance of someone willing to take him.

[thefiestygoat]

I haven't paid too much attention to the salaries of other big names in the NHL. But, is this even acceptable? 6 million for 60 points, is basically a million bucks for every 10 points (his defensive skills arent bad, but they're not good enough that you'd pay extra for them, at least IMO). I mean, if the Devils pay a million bucks for a guy, he'd better get more than 10 points.

I mean, when you look at a guy like Arod in baseball, he's making close to 30 million, but if, say, the yankees said bye to him, and got a 3B worthy of, say, 10 million, a 1b worth about the same, and an outfielder (I can't remember offhand what the state of their outfield is), then those 3 players would outproduce Arod + crappy players at 1st and OF. Now, because the yankees pretty much can spend whatever they want, they can afford not to have crappy players at other positions. But given the salary cap, the Devils can't do this. Elias is making 6 million, and we have some minor league defenseman, and Rupp being our go-to guy on the bench, and people like Brylin still getting ice time. Spending 2 million each on 3 players, or 3 million on 2 players, would, pretty much without a doubt, outproduce anything that Elias will do, unless he does a 180 turnaround. This is pretty much why, IMO, with a salary cap, you can't spend large amounts of money on a single guy unless they really are, night in and night out, going to produce. As much as the Zubrus signing was somewhat odd, in the longrun spending medium amounts of money on a guy like him will presumably get you more bang for your buck than a guy like Elias.

If I'm completely wrong here, I'd appreciate knowing why. It seems to make sense to me though, haha.

I was in a very generous mood when I typed that. Ideally I think he should hit the 80 point range, but I'll give the guy a break considering he plays two ways and isn't always all about the offense. I can't disagree with anything you have said. I want to continue to think he is in a slump but this has just gone on for far too long. I hope he proves me wrong though, but even when you think he is having his break out game, he never ends up breaking out.

[stevestevens]

He simply is lost without a strong center on his side, and i dont see him going all out to score. He needs to be faster to the puck and taking more shots.

[sundstrom]

we can't bring up linemates any more as an excuse with elias. he is the guy that is supposed to make everyone better. he's not playing with cam janssen and mike rupp here.

i keep waiting for him to come around. it's clear that he has the most talent of anyone on this team and i don't think he has a poor work ethic. but its like he just can't decide what he wants to do.

tonight he had 3 horrendous turnovers in the offensive zone when the devils were applying good pressure. that just can't happen.

he has certainly been a disappointment the last two seasons. for the devils to go anywhere, he has to improve.

[metallidevils]

PE is getting bad calls against him like a high sticking double minor. Luckily it turned out to be a penalty shot save and shot handed goal for his Devils.

Is this relevant to anything? Has he been getting so many bad calls that its affecting his play on the ice? Or are you trying to say it was a smart move he took that penalty because we scored a SHG?

[squishyx]

I disagree that Elias has been playing better as of late. Basically people have been saying that all year and the truth is, yeah he is working hard and will occasionally make a nice move but he has had no finish all year and going back to most of last year as well. I think he has been consistently under preforming all season.

[DevilsRule2008]

One thing i can't stand, are those blind backhand passes, that ALWAYS end up on the other teams stick, and can usually lead to an odd-man rush for the other team. I saw a few tonight. Its disgusting, and it just doesn't work. Hes better off chipping it to a defender.

[nmigliore]

People should be whining about Zajac, not Elias.. Zajac needs to step up more, hes pretty solid on the defensive side but i dont think we need a John Madden #2 (Rod Pelley is already fitting into that role).. We need, dare i say it, a Gomez #2

[Triumph]

The blind passes do work sometimes. Elias does them far too often on the cycle - like he expects Jason Arnott to one time them.

Elias has lost some of his finish somewhere. He's just a few inches short on a lot of goals, or goalies make great saves. He has one of the worst shooting percentages in the league over the stretch dr33 mentioned, so either he's just an inaccurate shooter, he's not making the same shots, or he's getting unlucky, and I think it's some combination of the three.

He also doesn't seem to drive the net as hard as he used to.

Most of metallidevils' arguments here are based on the linear value of points (and money) which is incorrect. But I have to go watch the Giants bumble around for another half.

[metallidevils]

The blind passes do work sometimes. Elias does them far too often on the cycle - like he expects Jason Arnott to one time them.

Elias has lost some of his finish somewhere. He's just a few inches short on a lot of goals, or goalies make great saves. He has one of the worst shooting percentages in the league over the stretch dr33 mentioned, so either he's just an inaccurate shooter, he's not making the same shots, or he's getting unlucky, and I think it's some combination of the three.

He also doesn't seem to drive the net as hard as he used to.

Most of metallidevils' arguments here are based on the linear value of points (and money) which is incorrect. But I have to go watch the Giants bumble around for another half.

I may be misunderstanding what you mean by 'linear value of points/money'. I don't believe that we're paying Elias extra for any defensive skills. Also, at this point in his career, given his performance the last season+, I'm not sure that Elias is ever going to be the game changer that he once was. We're basically just hoping he racks up points at this point, which may be a stretch. I mean, I'd rather pay more for a guy that is going to have less overall points, but score in games that we win by 1 goal, than a guy who is going to have more points, but get the majority of his points in games against lesser teams and blowouts. Right now, we're getting neither from Elias. We could argue all day about 'clutchness' in sports, which isn't something that I can say I'm a big believer in, but there are undoubtedly players who score more when it counts, than when it doesnt, and that's probably what is worth the most money.

I guess what you're trying to say is, points isnt all that goes into consideration when considering salary, and I completely understand. But if you're a forward making 6 million in a salary capped NHL, you damn well better put up a bunch of points on the board. He's not going to devastatingly check a guy like stevens, or make a huge glove save like marty. if he's going to be a game changing player, he better start scoring.

Edited December 17, 2007 by metallidevils

[thefiestygoat]

People should be whining about Zajac, not Elias.. Zajac needs to step up more, hes pretty solid on the defensive side but i dont think we need a John Madden #2 (Rod Pelley is already fitting into that role).. We need, dare i say it, a Gomez #2

There is a big differnce in what Zajac makes compared to Elias and what is expected of him. Zajac is in his 2nd NHL season, he is putting up numbers similar to his rookie year. He is having a slight slump but I wouldn't worry about it, a lot of young guys have a sophomore slump. Zajac is not a player that we should be worried about at this point in time, I think Elias is the bigger issue.

[Triumph]

I may be misunderstanding what you mean by 'linear value of points/money'. I don't believe that we're paying Elias extra for any defensive skills. Also, at this point in his career, given his performance the last season+, I'm not sure that Elias is ever going to be the game changer that he once was. We're basically just hoping he racks up points at this point, which may be a stretch. I mean, I'd rather pay more for a guy that is going to have less overall points, but score in games that we win by 1 goal, than a guy who is going to have more points, but get the majority of his points in games against lesser teams and blowouts. Right now, we're getting neither from Elias. We could argue all day about 'clutchness' in sports, which isn't something that I can say I'm a big believer in, but there are undoubtedly players who score more when it counts, than when it doesnt, and that's probably what is worth the most money.

I guess what you're trying to say is, points isnt all that goes into consideration when considering salary, and I completely understand. But if you're a forward making 6 million in a salary capped NHL, you damn well better put up a bunch of points on the board. He's not going to devastatingly check a guy like stevens, or make a huge glove save like marty. if he's going to be a game changing player, he better start scoring.

What I'm saying I didn't have time to say. The thing about Elias, is that he has never been a consistent 70 or 80 point guy like a Modano or Sundin or Sakic etc. He also doesn't get the ice time of the bigger stars in the league. He's paid like an elite player, but he's not used like one. Simply using points doesn't do the man justice. That's a little unfair.

Signing 2 3 million dollar players would leave us in the same bind we're in now. The Devils are in need of an elite player along side Zach Parise. Having 10 20 goal scorers really isn't that terrific a boon because you can really only legitimately use 9 guys for a majority of the game, and you can really only have 7 forwards on a power play. Depth is an asset, but at some point you've got to have some top scorers - guys who can consistently score. Otherwise as the Devils learned many times in the playoffs, if all your rock hands forwards go cold for 3 games, you're finished. Teams pay a premium for this ability because 30 goals is worth more than twice what 15 goals is - I'd go into why, but it should be fairly obvious.

Anyway, obviously knowing what we know now, Lou wouldn't sign Elias to this big deal. But there's a similar stretch in Elias's career - between December of 2001 and January of 2003, Elias scored 21 goals in 87 games. I'm not sure he will rebound to being the player he was in 03-04. But I'm convinced he will rebound to being better than he's shown so far.

Edited December 17, 2007 by Triumph

[metallidevils]

What I'm saying I didn't have time to say. The thing about Elias, is that he has never been a consistent 70 or 80 point guy like a Modano or Sundin or Sakic etc. He also doesn't get the ice time of the bigger stars in the league. He's paid like an elite player, but he's not used like one. Simply using points doesn't do the man justice. That's a little unfair.

Signing 2 3 million dollar players would leave us in the same bind we're in now. The Devils are in need of an elite player along side Zach Parise. Having 10 20 goal scorers really isn't that terrific a boon because you can really only legitimately use 9 guys for a majority of the game, and you can really only have 7 forwards on a power play. Depth is an asset, but at some point you've got to have some top scorers - guys who can consistently score. Otherwise as the Devils learned many times in the playoffs, if all your rock hands forwards go cold for 3 games, you're finished. Teams pay a premium for this ability because 30 goals is worth more than twice what 15 goals is - I'd go into why, but it should be fairly obvious.

Anyway, obviously knowing what we know now, Lou wouldn't sign Elias to this big deal. But there's a similar stretch in Elias's career - between December of 2001 and January of 2003, Elias scored 21 goals in 87 games. I'm not sure he will rebound to being the player he was in 03-04. But I'm convinced he will rebound to being better than he's shown so far.

I agree that the Devils need an elite player. I don't think having 10 20-goal players is that bad either, though. From my recollection of the past two years (except for the lightning series last year, where we were pretty much burned by 3 players), it's much easier to shut down a team that depends on one line, than a balanced team. We took Jagr out of the equation against the Rags, and they were completely lost. Not having to depend on one player isn't the worst thing in the world. What's hurting us now is that we don't have either, really. I mean, sometimes its mind boggling where all the money went, considering we don't have the depth, or the one or two offensive superstars. Stating the obvious here, but we desparately need Elias to be that superstar. With the salary cap, if you are going to invest 6 million into one player, you better be sure that he is able to be the superstar of the team. I understand why Lou thought Elias was that guy. I mean, obviously hindsight is 20/20, but back when Elias was signed to the long term deal, would you have listed him as one of the elite players where there's really no risk in giving the guy a long term, expensive deal with a NMC?

Edited December 17, 2007 by metallidevils