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Official 2009 New York Mets Offseason Thread


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Back from Hilton Head (South Carolina, for those unfamiliar) after a whole lot of driving. The week pretty much went as I expected it to. I don't care about them miraculously finding themselves tw

I'm going on Saturday...finally.

Pretty bad is an understatement, to say the least. As for taking a 1/2 game out of first with all that's gone wrong...it's impossible not to. It has more to do with the Phillies not playing well mor

The offense wasn't horrible today, only 2 runs but they did tally 9 hits. Only problem was they left too many men on base.

They were definitely maddening (1-for-12 with RISP). Easier to take with a win of course!

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The offense wasn't horrible today, only 2 runs but they did tally 9 hits. Only problem was they left too many men on base.

Typical, but hey at least Murphy did enough to let us show off the new and much-improved bullpen...3.1 hitless innings :clap:

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The offense wasn't horrible today, only 2 runs but they did tally 9 hits. Only problem was they left too many men on base.

Yep. Mets need to fix all the men LOB this season. It killed them in many games last season. today 11-men LOB. Cannot do this again this season especially with RISP.

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Typical, but hey at least Murphy did enough to let us show off the new and much-improved bullpen...3.1 hitless innings :clap:

I gotta admit, I was waiting for a Putz and/or KRod implosion, because that's what seems to happen in Metland. I'm sure Fatso will beat the lack of hitting with RISP to death.

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I gotta admit, I was waiting for a Putz and/or KRod implosion, because that's what seems to happen in Metland. I'm sure Fatso will beat the lack of hitting with RISP to death.

CR, I was a little concerned with Putz in the 8th. Not worried at all with KRod in the 9th though. He is amazing.

Mets 1-0 tied with Atlanta for 1st. Phillies 1 GB. :P

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CR, I was a little concerned with Putz in the 8th. Not worried at all with KRod in the 9th though. He is amazing.

Mets 1-0 tied with Atlanta for 1st. Phillies 1 GB. :P

But you know what happens once star players put on the blue and orange...

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I hope there will be more Mets stuff by the time the real Opening Day commences, I'm sure not everything was put in just yet though the park did look largely finished.

The few ads they had looked huge as if they were trying to max out on what they had. I didn't really think to look for the advertisements or lack thereof but the blocked off areas on the scoreboard were pretty conspicuous.

Dusty getting away with his usual shoddy handling of a pitching staff so far, leaving in Harang for about 110 pitches on a cold day, then taking out the lefty and having the righty face Delgado instead of just walking Wright with a base empty and leaving the lefty in.

I agree, in that I think they'll be putting on as many finishing touches as they can over the next week. I know the outfield wall will remain green...not that big a deal. I think the Mets just need to play there for a while...CitiField doesn't have that "lived-in" feel to it yet. Dated and dumpy as it was, Shea FELT like the home of the Mets.

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But you know what happens once star players put on the blue and orange...

Yeah I know...The new vamped Mets BP looked good today and hope this change does a hell of a lot better than last season's BP. It has to be better CR. No more of the Heilman/Blownenweiss nightmares. Putz/Krod 100% better.

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Saw this on another Met board...seems like some things don't change:

In a bullpen related note, Scott Schoeneweis just let up a game-tying homer in the 7th to Seth Smith, a lefty.

He then let up a single to Helton and a line out to Hawpe, before being replaced.

Carry on.

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Rob Neyer predicted Mets with just over 90 wins. He's a pretty smart guy so I'll usually buy into his projections.

I'd love to see that.

I'm staying with my 84.

So are you projecting 90-92?

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I'd love to see that.

I'm staying with my 84.

So are you projecting 90-92?

I'm not really a projecting guy for teams. There's too much luck that can cost a team 5 games or gift a team 5 games. I like the guess individual players, because it's easy just looking at 1 player, but if I wanted to guess a record I'd really have to project the full roster for the entire NL to even start coming close to something I felt was a legit prediction.

If I was going to make a prediction I would go higher than 84. The Mets hitting is really good, the bullpen is good, and the starting pitching is not so great but has potential. Based on something super vague like that outlook on the team I would think they'll be around 90 wins again.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/science/07diam.html?_r=1

NY Times article talking about how baseball can be statistically analyzed really well and projected pretty accurately.

Luke Kraemer of Imagine Sports, which owns Diamond Mind, programmed the simulator to force the 2008 Yankees to bat their best hitter and cleanup man, Alex Rodriguez, ninth — to see how scoring was affected. Mr. Kraemer got the run total not for just one season, which can fluctuate as much as 80 runs in each direction from simple randomness, but for 100 seasons — more than 16,000 Yankees games in all.

The result? The Yankees scored 747 runs per season, 40 fewer than their real-life 787. (Diamond Mind was so accurate that 100 seasons with A-Rod batting fourth averaged 789, almost dead-on.) Most research suggests that those 40 runs would mean only about four fewer victories, for a strategy no manager would ever consider; so the difference with Rodriguez batting third or fifth would be insignificant, and nowhere near worth the forests of trees that would give their lives to the ensuing sports-page debate.

The intentional walk. This frequently used defensive strategy avoids dangerous hitters and can set up a double play, but it also awards a free base, and even the best hitters usually make an out. So is it smart in the long run? Diamond Mind found that it was not, though the difference was only about five runs per team per season.
The stolen base. Advancing from first to second puts the runner in scoring position, but he — and the rest of your hitters — will have a hard time scoring if he gets thrown out. Mr. Kraemer looked at a recent team that ran wild (the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays) and one that barely stole at all (the 2005 Oakland A’s) and switched their mind-sets to see what happened. The A’s scored 20 runs fewer, which probably says more about their players’ inability to run in the first place. But when the speedy Rays stole sparingly, they increased their scoring by 47 runs per season — suggesting that perhaps the Rays were running too often in real life.
The sacrifice bunt. Is it worth making an out intentionally to move a runner from first to second? Forcing a team that hated that maneuver (the 2005 Boston Red Sox) to do it a lot cost them 19 runs per season. But making a bunting team (the 2008 New York Mets) avoid it also cost them — by 15 runs on average — suggesting that the Mets’ managers, Willie Randolph and Jerry Manuel, used it quite intelligently. (The 1958 M.I.T. statisticians found that the sacrifice was rarely a good move; major league managers paid little attention.)
Edited by Devils731
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QUOTE

The sacrifice bunt. Is it worth making an out intentionally to move a runner from first to second? Forcing a team that hated that maneuver (the 2005 Boston Red Sox) to do it a lot cost them 19 runs per season. But making a bunting team (the 2008 New York Mets) avoid it also cost them

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QUOTE

The sacrifice bunt. Is it worth making an out intentionally to move a runner from first to second? Forcing a team that hated that maneuver (the 2005 Boston Red Sox) to do it a lot cost them 19 runs per season. But making a bunting team (the 2008 New York Mets) avoid it also cost them

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I'm not really a projecting guy for teams. There's too much luck that can cost a team 5 games or gift a team 5 games. I like the guess individual players, because it's easy just looking at 1 player, but if I wanted to guess a record I'd really have to project the full roster for the entire NL to even start coming close to something I felt was a legit prediction.

If I was going to make a prediction I would go higher than 84. The Mets hitting is really good, the bullpen is good, and the starting pitching is not so great but has potential. Based on something super vague like that outlook on the team I would think they'll be around 90 wins again.

The main thing I worry about this team is the rotation. Mainly, Oliver Perez.. Now that can change come trade deadline, or if Ollie becomes more consistent..

But banking on Ollie to be more consistent is ridiculous (until he proves otherwise), so I'll keep dreaming for Roy Halladay (or Peavy) at the trade dealine b/c that will put this rotation over the top. But as of RIGHT NOW its difficult to imagine this being a World Series caliber rotation.. however, the good news is : would you have called Philly's rotation a WS caliber rotation last year heading into the playoffs?

Edited by nmigliore
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The main thing I worry about this team is the rotation. Mainly, Oliver Perez.. Now that can change come trade deadline, or if Ollie becomes more consistent..

But banking on Ollie to be more consistent is ridiculous (until he proves otherwise), so I'll keep dreaming for Roy Halladay (or Peavy) at the trade dealine b/c that will put this rotation over the top. But as of RIGHT NOW its difficult to imagine this being a World Series caliber rotation.. however, the good news is : would you have called Philly's rotation a WS caliber rotation last year heading into the playoffs?

it wasn't and that's the point i'm trying to make. the NL is full of chumps - you people putting the mets at 84 wins, that means you've got to think you're what, 7th in the NL? 6th? where are all these better teams?

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