New Kovy Update ("As the Kovy Turns")

[Neb00rs]

the 13 years is on paper first of all. secondly, when he retires in 8 - 10 years, the last 3-5 mean nothing. and third the odds of him playing the rest of his career in NJ are not that high. it's just started, but what we're going to be seeing with these really long deals is that nobody finishes them with the team they signed them with and when they're bigger cap numbers and smaller payouts (especially with the cap seeming to rise to infinity), they'll actually become attractive (Triumph has been calling this since the cap was first put in place). it's the NBA economics, coming to a hockey team near you.

as for kovy, specifically - if he's not happy, he gets traded. there's no secret to that so don't worry about "options." regardess, he has the ultimate option - RUSSIA - at any time.

The point is that he loses control of what he does and where he goes. He's taking the low-risk chance that when he's 34 he'll be able to get at the very least a 7 million dollar per year contract (and it may be higher).

not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them.

Exactly what I'm saying.

Oh and Kovy is better than Parise. I love Parise and his spot on the Devils always comes first. But there is a reason we traded for Kovy and it's because we didn't have a player of his caliber/talent. And there is a reason Lou is about to spend a fortune on him.

Edited July 6, 2010 by ben00rs

[Daniel]

"talent" does not equal everything, and there are other facets to hockey other than sniping. most of you guys have oversold Kovalchuk from the beginning.

and having all three players is nuts. You have $15M tied up in 2 LW's now. Are we going to make it $22M? More? Why don't we just re-up Parise now and see if we can get $28-29M for 4 LW's. I think it can be done.

the overpaid veterans are gone. some are going to go now, some are going to go next July. all of your cap scapegoats are history and you're still going to be rubbing up against the cap. of course, when all of these "clearings" are gone, then you're totally dependant on cap increases and shrewd manuvering. and teams built like Pittsburgh, where you better hope your stars produce, because they're going to be surrounded by fodder.

When the dust settles, we'll have a cap situation similar to the of the Caps. They have $17 million tied up in two players long term, and $23 million in three players for this year. Bad cap management doesn't have much to do with the Caps post season issues.

[sundstrom]

Oh and Kovy is better than Parise. I love Parise and his spot on the Devils always comes first. But there is a reason we traded for Kovy and it's because we didn't have a player of his caliber/talent. And there is a reason Lou is about to spend a fortune on him.

i'm sorry - i just don't agree with this. there is no denying what kovalchuk is - a pure goal scorer with amazing natural ability. sure, parise may have to work harder, but he still does much more than kovalchuk and makes his linemates better. i'm not saying kovalchuk is a bum to parise's God-like stature. just that parise is better. admittedly, it's more likely that parise just stops scoring rather than kovy, but that doesn't make ilya the better player. he's a better scorer - that's it.

parise is going to see a lot more PK minutes i'd expect this year and that will make him even more valuable. and lets also not forget that he's a handsome AMERICAN with a name that anyone can pronounce. unless the entire front office and JVB are just complete idiots, they have 100% considered what needs to be done with Parise before they even thought about retaining kovalchuk.

[maxpower]

not the case. if the devils sign kovalchuk they won't be able to fill holes from outside. but they've got a bunch of prospects all ready to break into the NHL at the same time. they can be coasting on these guys for years if things turn out well with them. the real problem with pittsburgh is that they have had to rely on outside talent all the time - they haven't really developed a winger better than tyler kennedy since god knows when, and they are continually dealing draft picks every year as well.

It depends how tight you are to the cap. We have a patch here where we have some players coming through. But as you start to activate their ELC (and obviously quite a few are already on the clock), the time starts to run out. If they're not so good, you have more time. But every one you hit on, is going to want to get paid at the end of their ELC. If you're perpetually tight to the cap (I actually think the first two years will be the easiest, as we were going to be tight this year no matter what we did, you'd have to figure some of this money was going to another defenseman anyway), it's going to be a pain in the ass. If your ELC guy wants or deserves a raise in the $2M's or so, that's a million or so you need lying around. It perpetuates. That's why I would trade Elias, he's got the biggest caphit on the team, at least for the next 12 hours, and it's a long term deal. It's being a cold hearted bastard, but it's the easiest way to relieve the pressure. If Rolston disappears at the same time, all the better. Also, it's possible to get something back for Elias, although it would have to be around half/less than half of his cap figure to make sense.

Chicago is a total disasterpiece right now. They're at (I'm too lazy to look) $54.5M or something like that with 14 player and a cap penalty. That's not really what I aspire to be, but they would have to have alot of hits with the prospects to get there. And make bad goalie decisions post-Marty.

[Neb00rs]

i'm sorry - i just don't agree with this. there is no denying what kovalchuk is - a pure goal scorer with amazing natural ability. sure, parise may have to work harder, but he still does much more than kovalchuk and makes his linemates better. i'm not saying kovalchuk is a bum to parise's God-like stature. just that parise is better. admittedly, it's more likely that parise just stops scoring rather than kovy, but that doesn't make ilya the better player. he's a better scorer - that's it.

Here's the thing: Kovy changes the way other teams play us the way Scott Stevens did. For example, The d-men nervously flock to Kovy on the PP leaving the ice open for the other players.

Kovy is a gamechanger and Parise is not. No doubt Parise is more solid defensively.

and lets also not forget that he's a handsome AMERICAN with a name that anyone can pronounce.

That is a very good point, my mind is changing.

Edited July 6, 2010 by ben00rs

[maxpower]

If Kovalchuk was the gamechanger you make him out to be, what happened wouldn't have happened. He's a very good player. He is not some elite superhuman god that will turn the league on its ear. Don't be too annoyed if he turns into an annual 35/40 goal scorer and 80 point player. It would be nice if he went apesh!t and lived up to his contract, and this 3 months was just a hiccup, but I'm not expecting it.

Please don't start comparing him to Scott Stevens now. The transition period here is going to be annoying enough.

[RowdyFan42]

What's up? The lawn is mowed. Edged too but not blown.

This reminds me of the hardwood flooring thread from a few years ago.

[Triumph]

It depends how tight you are to the cap. We have a patch here where we have some players coming through. But as you start to activate their ELC (and obviously quite a few are already on the clock), the time starts to run out. If they're not so good, you have more time. But every one you hit on, is going to want to get paid at the end of their ELC. If you're perpetually tight to the cap (I actually think the first two years will be the easiest, as we were going to be tight this year no matter what we did, you'd have to figure some of this money was going to another defenseman anyway), it's going to be a pain in the ass. If your ELC guy wants or deserves a raise in the $2M's or so, that's a million or so you need lying around. It perpetuates.

but it doesn't, really.

the devils have 9 million 'coming off' the books in july 2011 (arnott, langenbrunner, greene, hedberg)

in july 2012, they have 16.6 coming off the books (brodeur, rolston, salvador, white)

in july 2013, they have 15 million coming off the books (elias, zubrus, zajac, clarkson)

in 2013-2014, they have 2 contracts on the books, tallinder and volchenkov.

this is just a ton of money coming free, and more to the point, josefson, tedenby, urbom, henrique, and someone else i'm forgetting will all be RFA in july 2013 - there will be buckets of money with which to sign them if they do do well. with bergfors gone, there won't be many pesky RFA contracts in the interim, and there will be lots of UFA contracts going bye-bye and being replaced by a player who has around the same value for 1/4th of the cost. i admit this is a rosy picture, but i still think that if we sign kovalchuk, this team will look just fine in 2012-13 with a salary cap around 64 million and $31.5 million committed to 7 players. we'll be able to have parise on that team and still do fine.

That's why I would trade Elias, he's got the biggest caphit on the team, at least for the next 12 hours, and it's a long term deal. It's being a cold hearted bastard, but it's the easiest way to relieve the pressure. If Rolston disappears at the same time, all the better. Also, it's possible to get something back for Elias, although it would have to be around half/less than half of his cap figure to make sense.

Chicago is a total disasterpiece right now. They're at (I'm too lazy to look) $54.5M or something like that with 14 player and a cap penalty. That's not really what I aspire to be, but they would have to have alot of hits with the prospects to get there. And make bad goalie decisions post-Marty.

chicago will be fine, and they made some absolutely disastrous mistakes, chief among them, huet. i would try to avoid dealing elias for a number of reasons, but i do agree that the devils could actually get something back for him.

Edited July 6, 2010 by Triumph

[Neb00rs]

If Kovalchuk was the gamechanger you make him out to be, what happened wouldn't have happened. He's a very good player. He is not some elite superhuman god that will turn the league on its ear. Don't be too annoyed if he turns into an annual 35/40 goal scorer and 80 point player. It would be nice if he went apesh!t and lived up to his contract, and this 3 months was just a hiccup, but I'm not expecting it.

Please don't start comparing him to Scott Stevens now. The transition period here is going to be annoying enough.

You can't judge Kovy after only playing on the team for 3 months. He was a point a game guy while joining a team with a completely new style and being miscoached.

Also, I can totally compare Kovy to Scott Stevens. Kovy probably will go down as one of the best LW's of all time and Scott is one of the best d-men of all time. My point was not that they are similiar players but that they both change the way opposing teams play.

[Daniel]

i would try to avoid dealing elias for a number of reasons, but i do agree that the devils could actually get something back for him.

Academic really. He's the one guy that I'm positive would invoke his NTC under all circumstances.

[Neb00rs]

Academic really. He's the one guy that I'm positive would invoke his NTC under all circumstances.

Talk of Elias movement is aa waste of breath. There is a 100 percent chance he finishes his career on the Devils. He wants to and Lou wants him to.

[maxpower]

but it doesn't, really.

the devils have 9 million 'coming off' the books in july 2011 (arnott, langenbrunner, greene, hedberg)

in july 2012, they have 16.6 coming off the books (brodeur, rolston, salvador, white)

in july 2013, they have 15 million coming off the books (elias, zubrus, zajac, clarkson)

in 2013-2014, they have 2 contracts on the books, tallinder and volchenkov.

This is probably going to be sloppy.

2011. $9M 'comes off', but the problem is that you're looking at maybe $7M new money for Greene and Parise, say $3M for Greene (hopefully, because this means he played well, and we're going to need him to play well, there's no Kaberle or Favrermayer coming to the rescue now) and $4M for Parise... again, hopefully he'll be a champ about this and they'll be able to create a friendlier hit than $7M.

2012. all of that money other than Brodeur is likely off by 2011. Rolston and Salvador in hours, and White next season.

White should still be here this year because he's needed, the D will be interesting without him. that money is immediately

being used to get us off the kicker limit and back under the cap. so, it won't be in there in 2012. this year is shaping

up to be tough. afterwards, we'll see how we get off the cap. I think you're selling short the progression of players from ELC/RFA/UFA, you should lose every time, it's rare to get good deals. Even if the kids play well enough that the concept of jettisoning Zajac down the road is possible, well, now you have to pay the kids, and they could end up making more.

of course, at this point, all bets are off because who knows what happens in 2012, it's possible the CBA has a totally different look, more NFL-ish, than it does now, and "problems" are easily solved.

or the Mayans were right and we get EMP'd back to the stoneage by the sun.

Academic really. He's the one guy that I'm positive would invoke his NTC under all circumstances.

I think that, while insulted, he would be far less a bitch about it than Rolston is likely being at the moment.

[Neb00rs]

I think that, while insulted, he would be far less a bitch about it than Rolston is likely being at the moment.

Funny how it's easy to trade the players you want to keep and difficult to trade those you don't.

[sammyk]

This reminds me of the hardwood flooring thread from a few years ago.

Somehow this has escaped me...

[nyrsuck26]

So let's see, I last checked this around 5:50pm. It is now 12:25am. In that time, I went bowling (league) and watched the extended version of Independence Day. And now I come back and...

Absolutely Nothing Has Happened!!!

I hate you, Jay Grossman, I truly do.

[sammyk]

So let's see, I last checked this around 5:50pm. It is now 12:25am. In that time, I went bowling (league) and watched the extended version of Independence Day. And now I come back and...

Absolutely Nothing Has Happened!!!

I hate you, Jay Grossman, I truly do.

Why is this Jay Grossman's fault?

[maxpower]

Funny how it's easy to trade the players you want to keep and difficult to trade those you don't.

no, it's personalities. one guy would be insulted and want to prove them wrong, the other guy is Roger Dorn, who knows he's a joke and kind of revels in it.

[DH26]

So let's see, I last checked this around 5:50pm. It is now 12:25am. In that time, I went bowling (league) and watched the extended version of Independence Day. And now I come back and...

Absolutely Nothing Has Happened!!!

I hate you, Jay Grossman, I truly do.

Independence Day would have been a much better choice than constantly updating twitter.

"IN THE WORDS OF MY GENERATION: UP YOURS!" -Russell Case

[Neb00rs]

Why is this Jay Grossman's fault?

Exactly what I said before. Can someone please tell me?

[nyrsuck26]

Why is this Jay Grossman's fault?

because he said Kovy was probably going to make a decision today, which got everyone's hopes up that this was almost over...

I never took the Post article seriously (although I was hoping)

[Neb00rs]

no, it's personalities. one guy would be insulted and want to prove them wrong, the other guy is Roger Dorn, who knows he's a joke and kind of revels in it.

That was implied but I'll spell it out: players who have good personalities are often the players you want to keep.

because he said Kovy was probably going to make a decision today, which got everyone's hopes up that this was almost over...

I never took the Post article seriously (although I was hoping)

And he really thought Kovy was gonna announce today.

The most likely scenario is that he's actually doing Lou a favor and buying him time to clear cap space.

Or maybe a new team stepped in with a new offer.

Or maybe Kovy had a change of heart.

Either way it's not on Grossman.

[thelastonealive]

Like I said before, he said Kovy was looking to make a decision today (well, I guess technically yesterday now).

He said absolutely nothing about making that decision public.

[brickwall30]

the point that Parise's leadership and smarts and intensity, defensive responsibility make all the difference is a moot point. Ethan Moreau had all of those in spades along with that awsomely empty "intangibles" word. All that got him was a swift kick in the a$$ and a trip on the waiver wire.

Don't misunderstand me I am in NO WAY comparing Parise to EM but those extra character things are great, but they aren't the measurable points that get you $$$ . Kovalchuk had multiple leverage points this year in contract negotiations chief among them was the KHL offering up stupid money and close behind the fact that his numbers really speak for themselves ie. most goals since 2001 second only to Ovie in goals since 2005 most PowerPlay goals since 2001 AND 2005 (important because Ovie was accounted for in that statement) Kovie also has a Richard Trophy along with multiple 40+ and 50+ goal seasons to his record showing his seasons were not a fluke.

Parise, as great a player as he is and as great as I think he is, doesn't have the credentials to be demanding anything near what Kovie will get even once he gets to UFA (unless he signs a long term deal as an RFA and can get some more to his hockey resume by the time he gets his first shot at UFA) even if he was UFA next year I would say he wouldn't get more than 8 million a season. If I had to guess I would say around 7.8 million on a UFA market for Parise and I think that is the upper end of what would be possible. as an RFA he will either be paid a very reasonable (relatively speaking) amount on a 4-6 year deal that takes him to a good spot in his career to be UFA OR he signs long term on his RFA year and gets in the low 7 range average cap hit for 6-8 years still putting him in decent position for another payday but getting the most out of him in a Devils uniform for a good price.

[Neb00rs]

Don't misunderstand me I am in NO WAY comparing Parise to EM but those extra character things are great, but they aren't the measurable points that get you $$$ . Kovalchuk had multiple leverage points this year in contract negotiations chief among them was the KHL offering up stupid money and close behind the fact that his numbers really speak for themselves ie. most goals since 2001 second only to Ovie in goals since 2005 most PowerPlay goals since 2001 AND 2005 (important because Ovie was accounted for in that statement) Kovie also has a Richard Trophy along with multiple 40+ and 50+ goal seasons to his record showing his seasons were not a fluke.

Good post, good numbers.

[mort4345]

This thread is now up to 43 pages and I'm ashamed to admit, I think I've read every one of them. I think I need to re-evaluate my life.