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Expectations


DevilinLA
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I've been wanting to have this discussion for a while. It seems like there is a lot of angst and difference amongst what is an "elite" player or a top roster player. It seems like people have different definitions of what a "good season" for a top 6 forward is. So I wanted to try something interesting. Lets scrap this season and lets also say that amongst the "Proven" NHL top 6 of the Devils the remaining players who command the biggest chunk of salary cap space ($6 M or over) are:

Kovalchuk

Elias

Parise (projected)

Without turning this into a statistical exercise, and considering a healthy full REGULAR season, what would folks consider a "good season for these players". You can do it in points or G/A, or whatever.

Lets also consider that no new top 6 centers or wingers are coming in via UFA. Yes there are a lot of variables.

Now, contrary to popular belief here, I'm not on an Elias witchunt. It's just common cap-knowledge that your top paid players need to produce to have a succesful team.

Also, we can spare all the "We have no PMD", "Kovy is the source of why all the players and franchise will suck forever", and "Elias means more to this team than stats or points will express"

Purely a board survey exercise to take stock. No agendas and lets keep it realistic.

Lets see how close or far we are from each other.

So what are the projected expectations?

Edited by DevilinLA
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i'm not sure what you're trying to get out of this exercise, but i would consider the following a good season next year from each:

parise: 35 goals - 40 assists

kovalchuk 35 goals - 40 assists

elias: 20 goals - 45 assists

while you say you can do it however, you're really asking for points. i mean, i think we'd all say, if the devils are successful and go far in the playoffs, these guys can all have 0 points and that has a lot to do with team success and what makes a good season.

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Parise - fore check like hell, score goals in dirty areas, not to shoot the puck from all over after you get your numbers (ala Gionta), just battle

Elias - be the glue to a line. In the Aline and the EGG line, Elias was always the most important player, bringing the best out of his teammates. he's very smart and helps out well in the dzone. Let him center Kovy next year.

Kovalchuk - SHOOT THE PUCK. he's trying way to hard to fit in here, get him to run wild - let him loose. With hopefully Elias as his center there is already a player who can get him the puck and maybe pick up the slack for Kovy in the dzone if he finally decides to start taking chances.

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Points wise, I would expect both Kovalchuk and Parise to be around point per game players. I would like to think that Elias could still be a point per game player, but I don't see that happening (a bright spot this season would be seeing Elias hit the PPG mark).

Kovalchuk: 45-50 goals 35-40 assists

Parise: 35-40 golas 40-50 assists

Elias: 20 goals 40 assists

Is there a team with a better group of LW in the NHL??

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In a GOOD season, those players should get:

-Kovy: about 90 pts.

-Zach: 80-90 pts.

-Patty: about 70 pts.

If they end up a bit below those numbers, it's definitely not a tragedy. Finishing with 20 less is a disappointment, though.

It's clearly the Elias thread that sparked this discussion and when you look at the guy, you can't really say anything bad about him. Look at his production post-lockout:

2005/2006: 38GP, 45 pts. - over a point per game, he was sensational after coming back from hepatitis

2006/2007: 75GP, 69 pts. - it was below expectations after the year he had before that, but looking back at it, the whole team's offensive production was pretty weak. He still ended up about the number of points I consider good for him

2007/2008: 74GP, 55 pts. - that's a letdown

2008/2009: 77GP, 78 pts. - again, a point per game, nearly 80 pts. total... What more can you command for 6M and from a veteran guy? Great offensive season

2009/2010: 58GP, 48 pts. - so, on pace for 67 pts. Definitely not bad, considering I think a 70 pt. season is good for him.

This year, of course, is weak for the whole team, but he's the scoring leader and still on pace for 60 pts. You always gotta remember every player's production is going to drop in a season like this and despite that, Patrik still puts up decent numbers.

That's just statistical analysis. But there is more to Elias' value - the leadership, the experience, the consistency. I definitely wouldn't give this guy up unless I got a REALLY good return for him.

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For me, my top two scorers need to net me about 150-160 pts for the year. If you wanna divide that 90-70 for Kovy, or 80-80, or whatever, for me to consider a successful production-wise year I want Kovalchuk and Parise to combine for something to the effect of 150-160 pts.

Elias is a little different. I'd set my expectations for him based more on assists, which I'd love to be in the 40 range, with a chip-in of about 15-20 goals on the year.

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I would say this:

Parise: 35-45G 40-45A 75-90PTS

Kovalchuk: 40-50G 35-45A 75-95PTS

Elias:20-25G 40-50A 60-75PTS

To play on the top 2 lines I expect a player to put up at the very least 50pts no matter what their salary is. So assuming we weren't the train wreck we are this season and we had a normal year, I'd have expected Arnott and Langs to put up 50+pts. Elias and Zajac to hit 60+pts. Parise and Kovy to get 75+pts. Zubrus is odd because eh's not really a top 6 guy, but is better than most bottom 6 guys, so if he got top 6 minutes most night, I'd expect him to get around 45-50pts.

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