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mrthemike

Playoff Chances

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im nervous about friday...TB just won 8-3 against the yotes and that last win was the pretty terrible

anyone else think this is going to be big

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Of note: this mathematical analysis assumes that the Devils will play the same way they've been playing as an average product of this season--and they're a much different team now than they were. Realistically, we have a better shot. But mathematically, it's pretty grim.

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If we continue playing the way we have been for the last month and a half, we are pretty well in. If we falter at all, its gonna be nearly impossible.

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Seems like two conflicting links.

So if I'm reading Iggy's link right, in the most ideal of scenarios (22-0-0) we control our own desiny and we'll be either the 4 or 5. And the breakpoint of pretty good to pretty bad chances seems to be 15 - 4 - 3, where the percentage is still >60%, whereas 15-5-2 dips it to ~40%.

It'll be a fun ride regardless, and it will be interesting to see if the Devils can pull that off. FYI, the remaining 22 games are:

Fri Feb 25, 2011 Devils Lightning

Sun Feb 27, 2011 Devils Panthers

Wed Mar 2, 2011 Lightning Devils

Fri Mar 4, 2011 Penguins Devils

Sun Mar 6, 2011 Devils Islanders

Tue Mar 8, 2011 Senators Devils

Fri Mar 11, 2011 Devils Thrashers

Sat Mar 12, 2011 Islanders Devils

Tue Mar 15, 2011 Thrashers Devils

Thu Mar 17, 2011 Devils Senators

Fri Mar 18, 2011 Capitals Devils

Sun Mar 20, 2011 Devils Blue Jackets

Tue Mar 22, 2011 Devils Bruins

Fri Mar 25, 2011 Devils Penguins

Sat Mar 26, 2011 Devils Sabres

Wed Mar 30, 2011 Islanders Devils

Fri Apr 1, 2011 Flyers Devils

Sat Apr 2, 2011 Canadiens Devils

Tue Apr 5, 2011 Devils Penguins

Wed Apr 6, 2011 Maple Leafs Devils

Sat Apr 9, 2011 Devils Rangers

Sun Apr 10, 2011 Bruins Devils

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Yeah that first one doesnt seem too realistic, and not just because they have the Devils at like a 94% chance not to make it, but they have the Rags as pretty much guarenteed and with the way they have been playing and their games in hand I am not so sure about them, and they have Buffalo as 60% not to make it when I think they have a better shot than the Rags to make it.

Bottom line is Devils keep winning and we will be fine...

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The link makes sense. How often does a team come back from a 10 point deficit with 22 games left to make the playoffs. I think its happened literally once in the NHL's history. So to say we have a 94% chance of not making the playoffs is a very reasonable assumption.

Of course, we aren't computer so we know how well the Devils are playing lately, but these computer models lump the entire season together, Pre-Mac and Post-Mac

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The link makes sense. How often does a team come back from a 10 point deficit with 22 games left to make the playoffs. I think its happened literally once in the NHL's history. So to say we have a 94% chance of not making the playoffs is a very reasonable assumption.

Of course, we aren't computer so we know how well the Devils are playing lately, but these computer models lump the entire season together, Pre-Mac and Post-Mac

but the devils aren't playing that much better territorially. they don't have a good power play. they're not playing anywhere close to a .750 team (which would probably require being in excess of 58% fenwick)

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I honestly don't think you can really know how it will play out, at the very least the devils have the opportunity to be one of the more compelling stories this season and year. I am happy that we now have a reason to watch.

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Jim Carey looks like Robert Sean Leonard!

and that clip reminds me so much of me... :argh: I've been told more than once I look like him too... <_<

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Devs cant worry about who's ahead of them who's behind .. who plays who tonight or who got 2 points .. they can only go out and play their game and do it solidly for 3 periods, There was no pressure when they were 20 points behind but as they get tighter, it will increase .. the only thing they can do is continue with the same attitude... otherwise it gets complicated..

1 shift 1 period 1 game

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And me and youtube aren't speaking

Edited by mouse

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I honestly don't think you can really know how it will play out, at the very least the devils have the opportunity to be one of the more compelling stories this season and year. I am happy that we now have a reason to watch.

more than this year... I was watching the Panthers feed of the Panthers - Sens game last night and they were talking about the Devils, and they were saying that the farthest any team has come back from behind (in season) and made the playoffs is 12 points. They were saying it was truly remarkable what they have accomplished (even thusfar) and I agree, if they continue at this level they really should make it, but man they have given the fans something special so far in this run...

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The teams the Devils have left to play scare me. It isn't because I think the Devils wont win, it's because I know they should win, and if they don't it will be one they should have. The only teams I question the Devils beating would be the Flyers, Capitals, and Bruins. GAHHH just don't lose. Show the NHL and the world what it means to be a Devil, no one could ever realistically talk sh!t about the organization again.

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but the devils aren't playing that much better territorially. they don't have a good power play. they're not playing anywhere close to a .750 team (which would probably require being in excess of 58% fenwick)

Completely agree. I haven't really been overwhelmed with their play over this strech but thats in the past. I'm just saying that from an objective observers point of view, a 6% chance of making the playoffs for a team as far back as we are with as little time as we have left seems appropriate.

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Devs cant worry about who's ahead of them who's behind .. who plays who tonight or who got 2 points .. they can only go out and play their game and do it solidly for 3 periods, There was no pressure when they were 20 points behind but as they get tighter, it will increase .. the only thing they can do is continue with the same attitude... otherwise it gets complicated..

1 shift 1 period 1 game

Can I get an AMEN?! :)

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Fukc numbers..we goin all the wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

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