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Triumph

On Why The Devils Will Return To Prominence In The East Next Season

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He played 21 injury plagued games. He will be fine.

Your wrong about Oduya, just look at his numbers:

If you look at Oduya's FLAVIN during the 20 minute mark of each game, he was a +15 on the Shadobee scale and lead the league. Clearly a Norris Candidate.

Becuase I wanted to test out timeonice, I looked up Oduya and Bogosian's numbers:

Even strength statistics only, excluding empty-net situations

ZACH BOGOSIAN

Fenwick 0.476

Corsi 0.465

JOHNNY ODUYA

Fenwick 0.473

Corsi 0.467

By comparison

DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN

Fenwick 0.538

Corsi 0.537

TOBIAS ENSTROM

Fenwick 0.506

Corsi 0.507

FWIW

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Becuase I wanted to test out timeonice, I looked up Oduya and Bogosian's numbers:

Even strength statistics only, excluding empty-net situations

ZACH BOGOSIAN

Fenwick 0.476

Corsi 0.465

JOHNNY ODUYA

Fenwick 0.473

Corsi 0.467

By comparison

DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN

Fenwick 0.538

Corsi 0.537

TOBIAS ENSTROM

Fenwick 0.506

Corsi 0.507

FWIW

ah but we can't use that for a few reasons.

A: enstrom and byfuglien have tended to play together a lot, ditto bogosian oduya. but what if they face different lines? what if atlanta is using bogosian and oduya to match up against teams' top lines? this isn't true anymore - it looks like they are using byfuglien and enstrom as a #1 pair now.

B: what about where the players tend to start their shifts? if you have a guy who starts his shifts 75% in the defensive zone, he's going to look a lot worse than a guy who starts 25% of his shifts in the defensive zone. atlanta tends to use byfuglien and enstrom in the offensive zone and oduya-bogosian in the defensive zone - byfuglien and enstrom start there 55% of the time they start in either the o zone or d zone, oduya 45%. that's going to affect their territorial stats.

atlanta has had a weird season - i cut off their numbers at a totally arbitrary point, but in their first 42 games, they were 46% with the score tied, and after that they are 54%. very, very weird. sample sizes aren't that big, but they do appear to be getting better.

Edited by Triumph

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Fantasy hockey statistics aside, next year is a new year and we "statistically" start from scratch.

Too many questions will remain particularly whether JL stays or not.

Right now we don't have the Forward depth to be a legit playoff team next year and our D is a work in progress.

:blahblah: Manta should just post this instead of going in depth its piratically the same thing:

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I'm sorry but Palmieri and def Clarkson should not be considered that damn good. I find Clarkson to still be terrible and is laately playing well lately because he is where he should be, the 4th line.

Very true, but it is hard to guage a season where the coaching change brought a sort of Day and Night difference. I wonder how our scoring numbers would be if Lemaire was in the entire season. The only coach to really bring out the scoring in this team since 2001 was really Sutter.

I am not saying Palmieri and Clarkie are some amazing players, but they are far from complete garbage. Clarkie is a role player, and Palmieri can be a grinder as well. Point is, our forward depth is not an issue IMHO....

Zajac is better than average, and while they are young and prone to mistakes Josefson and Tedenby have improved and should only get better...

+1 here.

By mid point next season Josefson and Teddy should be more acclimated to the NHL game and will only be better....

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I am not saying Palmieri and Clarkie are some amazing players, but they are far from complete garbage. Clarkie is a role player, and Palmieri can be a grinder as well. Point is, our forward depth is not an issue IMHO....

What "role" does Clarkson fill? He is a terrible enforcer (will only fight those smaller than him like Avery, but run away from guys the same size or bigger), cannot skate (do the Clarkson falling drinking game at any Devils game and see how destroyed you are by the end of the night) and will score a goal or 2 one game and doesnt score again for 15-20 games. He may add some energy, but so do a lot of guys in the minor leagues and Clarkson is far from a clutch performer. I barely noticed him in the last years playoffs (as well as most of the team).

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Ok, I see that from http://www.behindthenet.ca 's zone start %.

Do you know of a site that does adjusted fenwick/corsi stats for zone starts?

no, but every zone start above 50% is worth .6 of a fenwick event and .8 a corsi event. so i.e. if kovalchuk was +6 fenwick in a game but had 10 more offensive zone faceoffs than d zone faceoffs, his adjusted fenwick would be 0.

the thing is that teams that are good at driving play are able to get well over 50% zone starts.

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What "role" does Clarkson fill? He is a terrible enforcer (will only fight those smaller than him like Avery, but run away from guys the same size or bigger), cannot skate (do the Clarkson falling drinking game at any Devils game and see how destroyed you are by the end of the night) and will score a goal or 2 one game and doesnt score again for 15-20 games. He may add some energy, but so do a lot of guys in the minor leagues and Clarkson is far from a clutch performer. I barely noticed him in the last years playoffs (as well as most of the team).

I have been down on Clarkson too this season, but damn! You are killing the guy. IMO he is a decent 4th liner who got overpaid. He can score here and there (he had 2 goals and almost had the hatty against Columbus) and hits/fights in spots. He is an energy guy. Maybe I am being a little biased because I do like him, but I did want to trade him earlier in the year.

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I have been down on Clarkson too this season, but damn! You are killing the guy. IMO he is a decent 4th liner who got overpaid. He can score here and there (he had 2 goals and almost had the hatty against Columbus) and hits/fights in spots. He is an energy guy. Maybe I am being a little biased because I do like him, but I did want to trade him earlier in the year.

Yeah he hits, but he only hits and fights guys smaller than him. What kind of enforcer is that?

Again, call up almost any minor leaguer and they will have the same amount of energy as Clarkson. He had scored 2 goals against a terrible Columbus defense and goalie so good for him, but we will not see him score for the rest of the season.

He is a 4th liner who got way way overpaid. The only thing I have ever agreed with Sean Avery was what he said about Clarkson being a minor leaguer.

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Yeah he hits, but he only hits and fights guys smaller than him. What kind of enforcer is that?

Again, call up almost any minor leaguer and they will have the same amount of energy as Clarkson. He had scored 2 goals against a terrible Columbus defense and goalie so good for him, but we will not see him score for the rest of the season.

He is a 4th liner who got way way overpaid. The only thing I have ever agreed with Sean Avery was what he said about Clarkson being a minor leaguer.

I don't think he is supposed to be some heavyweight Peluso/Oliwa-esque enforcer. He is a middleweight. I agree with the 4th liner who got overpaid as I posted myself in my last post. I would like him on the 4th line, but not at his current contract

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To respond to the title of the thread, we should hit somewhere around 100 pts next year. The best part about this year is that we have the right pieces to rebound. The only troubling thing is the lack of goal scoring. Even last season, we had trouble hitting the back of the net towards the second half of the year. Parise will obviously help, as should Josefson and Tedenby next season.

Another thing that worries me is Patrik Elias. He was supurb the first 50 or so games this year but has slowed down. He'll be 35 next season and I think it may be too much to ask of him to reach 60 pts. Although, 50-55 pts for a 2nd line center is still decent.

Anyway, I still like this team next year IF we have the right coach. Who knows if Lemaire will be back, but I don't necessarily believe Lemaire= cup. As Tri has pointed out, Kovy may love Lemaire, but Zach probably doesn't. The style Lemaire has implemented doesnt fit Zach's hard forecheck very well

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I don't think he is supposed to be some heavyweight Peluso/Oliwa-esque enforcer. He is a middleweight. I agree with the 4th liner who got overpaid as I posted myself in my last post. I would like him on the 4th line, but not at his current contract

much as i hate him, clarkson is not a 4th liner. he has 40 goals the last 3 seasons - that's not a 4th line player.

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Fenwick Schmenwick...having more missed shots and shots on goal than the opponent doesn't mean much when the current Devils personnel is not very good at putting them home. It's a number worth checking out, but to me it's just more twisting things around to make things look different than they really are.

Having said that, I do think the Devils will make the playoffs next year (as a lower seed) for the following reasons (provided they don't get too slammed with injuries):

They can't possibly have a stretch like this season's 10-29-2 first half.

They can't score, but they do a very good job limiting the opponents' chances...they'll win ugly plenty, but wins are wins.

Zach and Ilya should net 30 each...as long as two other Devils can reach somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s, that will likely be just enough to offense to ice a winning team

Obviously, we still have an offseason to go through, but if this team returns more or less intact, I say they finish with around 94 points, and look ugly doing it. But that will make them a playoff team...I will be surprised if they don't get back in next season.

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Fenwick Schmenwick...having more missed shots and shots on goal than the opponent doesn't mean much when the current Devils personnel is not very good at putting them home. It's a number worth checking out, but to me it's just more twisting things around to make things look different than they really are.

I don't see any reason why the Devils would continue to shoot this poorly. It's not suggested by the players' careers to date. There's nothing to suggest the young players are somehow terrible shots, either. Bad shooting seasons like this happen. It happened to Boston - they shot 6.6% last year. They're shooting 8.0% this year. They shot 10.5% in 2009. Same coach. Similar team. There's not much that explains it.

Let's look at the Rangers, a team that had some bad shooting seasons:

07-08: 7.0%

08-09: 6.4%

09-10: 7.9%

10-11: 8.0%

Now maybe you'd point and say Tortorella is responsible for that. I don't think anyone can say that with certainty. We could say Gaborik is responsible, but he's not really, either.

Let's look at New Jersey:

07-08: 7.6%

08-09: 7.8%

09-10: 7.4%

10-11: 6.2%

Three different coaches, four different regimes, a bunch of player changes. We could go on like this for the rest of the league. Vancouver and Colorado are two teams who seem to have things figured out, but even then we can't be sure.

Having said that, I do think the Devils will make the playoffs next year (as a lower seed) for the following reasons (provided they don't get too slammed with injuries):

They can't possibly have a stretch like this season's 10-29-2 first half.

They can't score, but they do a very good job limiting the opponents' chances...they'll win ugly plenty, but wins are wins.

Zach and Ilya should net 30 each...as long as two other Devils can reach somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s, that will likely be just enough to offense to ice a winning team

Obviously, we still have an offseason to go through, but if this team returns more or less intact, I say they finish with around 94 points, and look ugly doing it. But that will make them a playoff team...I will be surprised if they don't get back in next season.

And I say the Devils are as big a favorite as anyone to make the playoffs next year, and should be an 100 point team with even a tiny glimmer of luck. The only thing that might falter is the goaltending. There's always injuries too, but that's true of every team. Winning ugly is back in NJ.

Edited by Triumph

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And I say the Devils are as big a favorite as anyone to make the playoffs next year, and should be an 100 point team with even a tiny glimmer of luck. The only thing that might falter is the goaltending. There's always injuries too, but that's true of every team. Winning ugly is back in NJ.

I have them making the playoffs as a #5-#8 and putting up 94 points, you have them at around 100, and we both have them winning ugly. We're not far off in our assessments.

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I have them making the playoffs as a #5-#8 and putting up 94 points, you have them at around 100, and we both have them winning ugly. We're not far off in our assessments.

how can you make this projection without knowing what the lineup is going to look like? for all we know the devils deal parise because they can't get a deal done.

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I have them making the playoffs as a #5-#8 and putting up 94 points, you have them at around 100, and we both have them winning ugly. We're not far off in our assessments.

I have them at 100 points with mild luck. With good fortune, it could be an 110 point team. Two legit play drivers, a very solid third line, a solid defense, average goaltending - all the pieces are there besides a power play.

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I have them at 100 points with mild luck. With good fortune, it could be an 110 point team. Two legit play drivers, a very solid third line, a solid defense, average goaltending - all the pieces are there besides a power play.

Not to derail things here...but why the hell doesn't the power play work? I just don't get it...the firepower is all there...

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how can you make this projection without knowing what the lineup is going to look like? for all we know the devils deal parise because they can't get a deal done.

That's assuming the lineup doesn't undergo drastic changes, everyone staying reasonably healthy, etc. Fan predictions are what they are...not one of us would've forseen 10 wins in the first half.

Not to derail things here...but why the hell doesn't the power play work? I just don't get it...the firepower is all there...

No it isn't. Look at the goal totals, team and individual.

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Not to derail things here...but why the hell doesn't the power play work? I just don't get it...the firepower is all there...

From a different thread like a week or so ago.

2008: 30th

2009: 29th

2010: 8th

2011: 29th

that's the Devils' rank in power play shooting %.

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What the heck happened in 2010?

The NHL only recorded PP stats for 9 teams.

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