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Early exit polls show Kerry lead in key states


David Puddy

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I just wanted to post something from Drudge!

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [bush won by 6]]... Developing...

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Yep, they were not really useful exit polls for projecting results. I heard Chris Matthews and Tom Brokaw discussing them this morning. In fact, they said as soon as NBC saw the early returns from the polls they said "this is very strange", expecially when they showed Kerry winning big in NC AND SC, and thats when they decided not to report any of it and rely on the raw data results and the modeling. Which meant results took longer to come in than they usually did in some cases, but I think they were right to do it. They over-sampled women, under-sampled Hispanics and white men as I understand it, although in the case of white men I really wonder if it was a case of them refusing to answer. I know some people who do this stuff and they say that white men, especially conservative white men basically will tell you, "No comment" which really messes up the polling. But then they shouldn't rely on it to project results, which, to the networks' credit, THEY DIDN"T DO THIS TIME AROUND.

Edited by SueNJ97
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