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nmigliore

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Posts posted by nmigliore

  1. Reyes is intriguing in the sense he'd cost almost literally nothing but the fit is very tricky. You'd have to ask someone like Cabrera or Walker to shift to 3B, which sounds more plausible when brainstorming these fun ideas than it is in reality. Also, if the Mets wanted to go down that path, they may be better off with just calling up Herrera; they'd avoid the drama part and it's easy to forget Reyes is 33 years old who had just a .688 OPS last season despite playing in two of the best hitters parks in baseball.

    Dave Cameron of Fangraphs put up an article today about how Danny Valencia is a perfect fit for the Mets and I'm in full agreement. He's quietly hit .296/.353/.523 with 25 HR over the past 365 days, which is way above his standards and suggests he's made some kind of positive adjustment. He wouldn't maintain that level of play obviously, but he's still graded out as an above average hitter for his career (104 wRC+), so there is some floor safety there. He's pretty versatile with MLB exposure at all corner spots (LF/RF, 3B/1B). He's dirt cheap salary wise ($3.2M) and even comes with another year of team control for 2017. Dave suggested it would cost someone like Brandon Nimmo, which I would probably do since I think Nimmo is more of a 4th OF type or very fringe-y starter. 

    Recent Cuban defect Yulieski Gourriel is also intriguing. He'd "only" cost money (which wouldn't count against our IFA cap) and it doesn't sound like he'll be getting a long deal given his age. Ben Badler of Baseball America has given him some very high praise in the past, including ranking him as Cuba's #1 prospect in April 2015. 

  2. I doubt Escobar would cost much; despite having a solid season with Washington last season he was dealt for only a 29 year old career minor leaguer and a reliever who isn't even in the Nats' bullpen this year. The Nats even threw in some cash ($1.5M) in that deal. Not sure if it's the reputation or skillset, or both, but teams don't seem to value him very much. I'd be interested. 

  3. There's still plenty of skepticism over Fulmer and whether he's a reliever long-term due to his arsenal vs LHB and past health issues. He has been terrific so far but he's not exactly destroying lefties: 18.2 IP, 5 BB, 1 HBP, 11 K. His good games have also come versus mostly weak competition: Minnesota (AL wRC+ rank: 14th), Oakland (12th), Tampa Bay (4th), and LA (7th). Tampa Bay has hit well overall, but they do most of their damage vs LHP (2nd in AL wRC+ vs LHP but 10th vs RHP).

  4. Robles is going to be one of those real mercurial types where you don't know what you're going to get outing to outing. He can miss bats really well but his control isn't that great and he's prone to flyballs (and thus homeruns). Which, in other words, means he's the kind of guy who can come into a bases loaded jam with nobody out and strike everyone out.... or he can walk in a run and then give up the grand slam.

  5. I know I've already given out kudos to the bullpen a few days ago, but Addison Reed's numbers since being traded to the Mets are phenomenal: 38 IP, 27 H, 10 BB, 47 K, 0.97 WHIP, 1.66 ERA, 2.12 FIP. Reed still has another year of control following 2016, too.

    In order to acquire him, the Mets gave up Miller Diaz, who looks like a nobody at this point, and Matt Koch, who is pitching well in AA but is 25 years old and continues to be immensely hittable. This turned out to be an incredibly shrewd move by Sandy last August. 

  6. Yeah, I'm fine with where Familia is right now. As CR noted, everyone slumps, even the best of 'em. I'd like to see the strikeouts tick up a bit, but it helps a lot when 60% of the balls put in play against you are on the ground. As long as he keeps up the above average strikeout and walk rates with the elite groundball/homer prevention, he'll be really good.

  7. 2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    As far as the ERA goes, if you believe in sabes, his FIP (4.40) and xFIP (4.19) point to positive regression coming.

    Yeah but those "sabes" aren't too good themselves and certainly nowhere near Harvey's usual levels. Once you account for the league and home park adjustments, his FIP and xFIP grade out 11% and 6% below average, respectively. Prior to this season, his career FIP and xFIP graded out 31% and 21% above average. He's clearly a different guy, even beyond the actual versus expected results debate.

     

  8. I'm not in the LEAST bit surprised Plawecki has stunk. There was absolutely nothing there to suggest he would hit. His career AAA slash line is below average and his best offensive tool (making contact) hasn't translated over to the Majors. He's a good pitch-framer but if he doesn't start making more contact, he's destined for the journeyman catcher path. The Mets would be better with Rivera getting more time behind the plate, unfortunately.

  9. 10 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

    Too bad we're gonna face the same ???'s about Cespedes opting out and coming back after this season too...but with how badly he wanted to stay here last offseason maybe he doesn't opt out after all.  Of course if he does I think someone's gonna give him too much money to turn down and it won't be us.

    Barring a catastrophic injury, Yo! is totally going to be opting out. And he'll get paid this time around.

  10. 1 hour ago, NJDevs4978 said:

    James Loney would probably check most or all of those boxes and he's available (currently on a minor league deal in the San Diego organization but can leave if he gets a ML offer).

    A few folks on Twitter have brought him up and I (very sadly) agree. I think he'll be a Met shortly. I much rather stick it out with the above Conforto idea, but it's probably not realistic.

    Dario Alvarez was DFA'd to make room for Ty Kelly, who is coming up in Duda's roster place.

  11. I actually like the idea of Conforto at 1B with de Aza/Lagares in CF (Cespedes and Grandy on the corners). He has no experience there, but hell, that's probably the optimal offensive (and arguably defensive) unit you can run out there with this current group.

    Smith shouldn't even be in the conversation. He's barely holding his own in AA right now. 

  12. You may not like Duda's skillset but that's besides the point (right now). The problem is that the replacements behind him -- Flores, Campbell, and so forth -- are horrendous options at 1B. They are replacement level players or worse at that position. Duda isn't some star by any means, but like I said, he's at worst an average regular, and the drop down from that to replacement level is about 2 wins. If you value Duda more than that (he's been a +3 win player each of the last two seasons), then it's more like a 3-win downgrade. Either way, it's very problematic - the Mets can't afford to be giving away wins like that; the value of even a single win added or lost is significant to this team. This is why I hope the Mets aren't picky at the deadline, assuming things don't fall apart by then. There is a time and place to be aggressive in adding extra wins and the Mets are at that segment of the win curve.

  13. Kind of a random note here, but kudos to the bullpen so far. Familia, Reed, and Robles have all been excellent. Bastardo is doing his usual thing - lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, and outperforming his underlying numbers. Henderson and Blevins have been good. You probably wouldn't have guessed it, but the Mets' bullpen leads MLB in ERA and FIP. They're 4th in xFIP. 

    The only change I would make right now is flipping Verrett for Gilmartin. It's not really a big deal since we're talking about a guy who is, by far, getting the lowest leverage innings in the 'pen, but Verrett's peripherals are trending in the wrong direction. Gilmartin, meanwhile, has 60+ very productive MLB innings to his name (with no platoon split) and has even pitched quite well as a starter in Vegas. 

  14. Losing Duda for a significant amount of time would be very hurtful. He may not be a fan favorite here but he's at worst a league average player, so dropping down from him to a replacement level scrub like Flores or Campbell is a like 2- or 3-win loss over a full season. The Mets would absolutely need a replacement from outside the organization. 

  15. Was at the game last night, first trip to Citi this year. Felt more like a mid-April game night game than mid-May, ugh. I really can't ever catch a break with weather in April/May games. I was in the second deck in LF; off the bat I thought for a slight second that Cespedes ball would get to me. :lol: 

    I know the strikeouts are driving people up a wall but I still think Wright can contribute offensively. I think the bigger issues are the defense, which is really bottoming out with his age and chronic back problem, and -- although this isn't Wright's fault -- the Mets have terrible backup plans for him. Neither player is hitting this year, but this would've been an ideal season to have a veteran like Juan Uribe or Kelly Johnson on the roster again - someone you can plug in at 3B and not be a zero at the plate. If Wright's offense continues to dip, maybe they look into Martin Prado, assuming the Marlins fade away. More likely, they'll probably be in the market for this year's version of Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson.

    They really need a catcher, though. Plawecki's carrying offensive tool was his ability to make contact in the minors but that hasn't translated at all against big league pitchers, which makes him useless offensively. 

  16. More importantly for trade value purposes, Ynoa's stuff also isn't very good. Maybe he's moved for middle relief help, but that's about all I can see him bringing back at this point.

    Kudos to Bowman so far. He's only thrown 15 low leverage innings, but hey, that's not his fault -- the peripherals have been good. Maybe there's enough there for a middle innings reliever.

  17. 1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

    That's why anyone who thinks the Mets have their rotation set for the next five years is off-base.  The time is now for this group.  They all rely on velocity to a certain extent.  They're all clearly a lot less imposing without it (and deGrom's actually been pretty lucky in his last couple of games...a lot of hard-hit balls right at fielders). 

     

    Even if these guys looked like their 2015-selves, performance- and velocity-wise, this would still be accurate. Pitchers eventually break - that's why they do. Despite the constant monitoring of pitch counts and innings, nobody has really figured out how to keep pitchers healthy. This is also why I never get too worked up over the [insert current ace] extension talks; by the time these guys are ready to walk in free agency, they're damaged goods and typically not worth the huge investments.

    This is also why, during each team's rebuild over the last 3+ years, the more analytic folk have been pushing the Cubs as having the stronger foundation since they are built around position players.

  18. After a nice upward trend, looks like deGrom's fell back down again yesterday, below even Opening Day levels. Harvey's velocity graph by start is up and down (he averages 95 one start and then 92-93 the next). So odd. Have to wonder how much last season's deep playoff run is affecting their arms.

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