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nmigliore

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About nmigliore

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  • Birthday 03/19/1991

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    New Jersey
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    Devils hockey, Mets baseball

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  1. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I love David Wright, he's my favorite New York Met of all time (you may snicker, but bare in mind my generation).... but yes, it's time to hang 'em up. The last 3-4 years have been sad to watch, it just needs to end.
  2. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Philly will definitely be more competitive this season; I don't think they're quite good enough to sneak into the WC discussion, but I agree with the idea that they could flirt with .500. To me, the big battle in the NL will revolve around the 2nd WC spot. The Dodgers, Cubs, and Nats are in a tier above everyone; I would say the Cardinals are alone in a tier below that trio and the WC favorites*; after that... the Giants, D-Backs, Mets, Rockies, and Brewers all profile similarly - something between 81 and 86 wins. * - The Cardinals are very easy to overlook. They don't really have much star power (only four players project to be worth => 3 WAR and only one => 4 WAR), but they're just very solid all over. Every starting position player and rotation spot looks at least average to above average for them, and their bullpen looks good too.
  3. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Yeah, even in those pretty good 2008 and 2010 seasons, Pelf had some good fortune going his way: 2008: 89 ERA-, 106 xFIP- 2010: 94 ERA-, 108 xFIP- It's not like he was "bad" in those years by the advanced metrics, but they did see him more as a slightly below league average starter whereas by ERA he looked above average. I think one season that's so easy to forget is 2012; it was only 3 starts, but I remember Big Pelf looking like a changed man in the spring, he came out of the gate that season throwing harder, and (again - super small sample size alert) the underlying numbers in those 3 starts were pretty damn good. Would things have gone differently for him had he not gotten hurt? Probably not, but you never know. Also, Pelf retiring is starting to make ME feel old. It feels like yesterday he was making his MLB debut.. wow.
  4. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Bobby Cox, in the same quote, also said the Mets have "Five No. 1 starters" so yeah... as much as I respect the old man, I'd take his opinion with a giant grain of salt. Edit: I'm a doofus... missed that Hasan already mentioned that bit. Sorry.
  5. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Thor was apparently popping 100 mph fastballs like nothing today... and then conducted his interview shirtless. Mike Pumaā€¸Verified account @NYPost_Mets 2h2 hours ago More Syndergaard with two perfect innings. Threw 13 fastballs, of which 11 registered at least 100 mph. Please stay healthy young fella....
  6. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    2017 Seth Lugo: 19.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.95 FIP, 4.18 xFIP 2017 Jason Vargas: 17.7 K%, 7.7 BB%, 4.67 FIP, 4.94 xFIP Vargas threw more innings and posted a better ERA, but the rate stats/underlying numbers show a strong case for Lugo over Vargas. The Mets DID need to add another starter for depth, I'll give them that, and Steamer projects Vargas for roughly 2 WAR if he can throw a full compliment of innings. I'm just disappointed they chose him when cheaper, superior alternatives were out there (Jaime Garcia) and the contract basically guarantee he's locked into the rotation for 2 years.
  7. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Man, for a moment I completely forgot Jason Vargas was once a Met - traded to us by the Fish as part of that ill-fated Matt Lindstrom deal in the winter of 2006. Vargas largely spent 2007 in AAA but did make 2 starts for the Mets in 2007, one of them being one of my favorite Mets Classics: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200705170.shtml. A couple winters later, he was part of that wild 3 team trade that netted the Mets JJ Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed. This wreaks of Omar's involvement, heh.
  8. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Oof. Would've rather have signed Garcia, who signed for the same money but for 1 year and a club option. In terms of health and ability, Garcia > Vargas. I'm not sure Vargas is even as good as Seth Lugo.
  9. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I've said it before but I think the Mets really need someone to bridge the gap between deGrom and Thor to the highly questionable trio of Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler. I think it would be a mistake to enter the season banking on the questionables to stay healthy AND perform. I do like Lugo as a 6th starter option (and you could probably argue he belongs in the rotation right now) but the Mets need more depth than that.
  10. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I was just looking at some of the numbers of Cobb, Lynn, and Garcia over the past few seasons and was a bit surprised to see Garcia has arguably been the superior starter of the trio, at least by the underlying numbers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=2520,6562,8137 Garcia has also thrown the most innings between the three in that timeframe, which should count for something, and has the best 2018 WAR projection by Steamer. Lynn and Cobb come with more upside I think - Lynn has really outperformed his peripherals in that 2015-2017 snapshot thanks to an elite strand rate - while Garcia is the most "boring" but probably the most reliable.
  11. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I will say that I doubt the Gonzalez experiment lasts too long anyway. He'll either go down with an injury or be DFA'd due to lackluster performance by late May. It still doesn't at all excuse the signing but I'd be surprised if he's still the starter come summer time.
  12. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I pushed for Frazier earlier in the offseason so I'm pretty satisfied with this signing, especially at the ridiculously-discounted price. He's not going to turn this team into a legit contender himself, but he does make the team better and knocks Jose Reyes down the infield pecking order, which can only be a good thing. We definitely need to add a starter, so I'm glad that seems to be getting some kind of attention. Will they afford Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb? I don't know. I would normally say no but with this free agent market in such a whacked out mode, you never know. If they settle for dirt cheap, Jamie Garcia probably makes the most sense and I wouldn't hate it. Not sure if I've been here for the Gonzalez signing but total YUCK. I'm not a Smith fan but 1000 out of 1000 I'll roll with him over a washed up guy like Gonzalez who was also a clubhouse nuisance with the Dodgers last year. I find it laughable the Gonzalez-mentoring-Smith columns laughable... this is the same guy who cried over losing his job to Cody Bellinger last summer. He's here to play as a starter and nothing else.
  13. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I'm probably the lowest on Smith but if your answer is going to be Duda, why bother? The range of outcomes between Duda versus Smith will likely be negligible. You're not signing Duda and banking on a 2- or 3-win upgrade to the roster, which is what the Mets need. Also, the Mets kind of have insurance for Smith with Bruce anyway, and in that scenario, their outfield defense would be much sharper by pushing Conforto rightfully to a corner and inserting Lagares in CF. As much as I would've liked to see the Mets upgrade 1B and maybe use Smith as a trade piece, I don't think the answer is out there. I really liked Carlos Santana but he's off the market now. Eric Hosmer is one of the most overrated players in baseball and he's going to get wildly overpaid. Logan Morrison was pretty good last season but how much of that was real after being terrible for years? After those two uninspiring guys, it gets even uglier.
  14. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    I'm kind of okay with the Mets going with d'Arnaud and Plawecki next year. I think they can squeeze enough out of both guys to get average production, maybe better if you're optimistic. If they had the cash to do it, Lucroy would be an interesting guy to look at on a 1-year pillow deal, but they have more pressing needs to address first IMO.
  15. nmigliore

    New York Mets 2017-18 offseason thread

    Fully agreed on Cain - he was the perfect fit here. So of course they go and sign a guy who is the exact opposite of a perfect fit.
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