Pacific Divison Predictions...

[Yeah, I suck]

Pacific Division Preview

by Darren Eliot, CNNSI.com

Los Angeles Kings | Dallas Stars | San Jose Sharks | Phoenix Coyotes | Anaheim Mighty Ducks

This is the best division in hockey right now, especially with the upgrades made in Dallas and Anaheim. Last season, three teams from the Pacific went to the playoffs and this season it is conceivable that four teams might survive the regular-season marathon. True, many things would have to fall into place for the Pacific to have four representatives, but it is possible, particularly when you consider how evenly matched these teams are.

In games amongst themselves, only three wins separated the best (San Jose and Los Angeles with 10) from the worst (Phoenix with 7). Even more telling, all five teams are astute defensively, relying on a team commitment to keeping the puck out of their net. Only 23 goals against separated the five teams, with the Kings surrendering the fewest goals (190) and the Stars giving up the most (213). Expect even tighter and more hotly contested matches in the Pacific this season, if it is possible.

Eliot's division rank: 1st in Pacific

Eliot's conference rank: 2nd in West

This season, there should be no juggling until midseason before the Kings finally jell. With Jason Allison on board from the start and a healthy Ziggy Palffy, the Kings are primed from the outset. Add highly touted rookie winger Alex Frolov to the picture and suddenly the Kings take on a more foreboding offensive aura at even strength.

Not that the Kings weren't menacing on the attack last season. They were especially menacing when on the power play. In fact, 34 percent of the Kings' total production came while enjoying a manpower advantage. In other words, the power play carried the offensive burden. That the Kings ranked No. 1 is a good thing, especially given the projected emphasis on special teams play this fall. It's just that the Kings need a production boost at even strength, primarily from a trio other than the Allison-Palffy-Adam Deadmarsh unit.

Frolov is so important because he represents unknown potential, something the rest of the Kings' forwards lack as known entities. Sure, a return to form by Bryan Smolinski -- who slumped badly last season -- is possible, but Los Angeles has little upside up front. And Frolov represents the one forward likely to stay in L.A. out of training camp from a group of four talented, offensive-minded youngsters, including Mike Cammalleri and Jared Aulin. If Frolov can't ignite Smolinski, one of these two prospects won't be far from joining the Kings in a scoring role.

But the Kings are as much about defense as they are anything else, surrendering the fourth-fewest shots against in the NHL. And they excelled on the penalty kill as well, ranking third, giving them the best special teams quotient of any team in the NHL (20.7 percent on power play, 86.6 percent on penalty kill for a special teams quotient of 107.3). The blueline has two, solid veteran pairings, but beyond that, the Kings are thin. Lubomir Visnovsky needs to improve on his disappointing second season and Andreas Lilja must prove capable in more than a reserve role.

In goal, however, the Kings are as deep as they are shaky on the blueline. Felix Potvin and Jamie Storr provide one of the better combinations in the league. Credit Storr for making the rare adjustment to a reserve role while still in his mid-20's, since playing as the backup isn't easy. Potvin can't seem to find his form unless he plays 65-plus games. Storr matured and made the situation work.

With a tweak here and a break there, the Kings just might roll out their best work to date under coach Andy Murray.

Eliot's division rank: 2nd in Pacific

Eliot's conference rank: 4th in West

Last season, free-agent gambling left the Stars with a losing hand. The wild card was departed goaltender Ed Belfour and his contentious relationship with fired coach Ken Hitchcock. This time around the table, Dallas is holding pairs -- not great in poker, but a solid bet in structuring a team.

Existing tandems include blueline stalwarts Richard Matvichuk and Derian Hatcher and the second "D" pairing of Sergei Zubov and Darryl Sydor. Up front, Dallas has the Mike Modano-Jere Lehtinen duo to shut down the opposition's top offensive players. Add free-agent acquisition Bill Guerin to the list as Modano's offensive playmate, as the two meshed nicely for Team USA at the 2002 Olympic Games.

Likewise, Pierre Turgeon now has a familiar linemate with Scott Young coming over from St. Louis as a free agent. Turgeon was ineffective last year -- his first in Dallas -- but he and Young teamed nicely for the Blues the previous couple of seasons, with Young scoring a career-high 40 goals in 2000-01. In goal, the Stars needed someone to back up Marty Turco, the anxious incumbent looking to take over as the team's starting netminder. Enter Ron Tugnutt, the solid veteran who is still a capable puck stopper, but equally important, is a supportive partner.

In addition to this theme of compatible couplets, the Stars added singleton veterans Ulf Dahlen and Philippe Boucher. All of which adds up to a pretty solid foundation on which new coach Dave Tippett has to build upon. His to-do list will include getting consistent production from Jason Arnott -- maybe asking him to find that comfort level on the wing; piecing together a fourth line of consequence; and working 22-year-old John Erskine into the regular defensive rotation.

On a team level, Tippett has to get the Stars back on track in two areas in which they excelled prior to last season: on the penalty kill and on home ice. Ranked 26th and 19th in those two categories respectively, those stats tell you all you need to know about the Stars' woes last year. Good teams boast strong special teams and take care of business at home. The Stars didn't warm to their new building, winning only 18 games. Maybe more surprising was their penalty-killing struggles. With the same personnel, the Stars were usually near the top of the heap when down a man. And last year they didn't get it done, despite being the least penalized team in the NHL.

More than anything, the Stars suffered from indifferent play on far too many occasions last year -- no doubt partly do to the constant turmoil. Tippett's specialty is special teams and his quiet intensity is a perfect match for this mostly veteran roster. This year in Dallas, a return to contender status appears to be in the cards -- no bluffer's hand this time around.

Eliot's division rank: 3rd in Pacific

Eliot's conference rank: 6th in West

The Sharks are the popular pick to be the next team to emerge from the strong Western Conference. The rationale certainly has merit. Their progression as a team has been steady, all the way through winning the division, the first round of the playoffs and a strong showing in the second round in losing to the Avalanche in seven games.

That kind of ascent usually leaves a team poised to contend -- the resolve redoubled by the painful lessons of coming close. Is that an apt description of the Sharks? Maybe. But, their training camp offered little in the way of unity. Contract holdouts and injuries kept the Sharks off-balance throughout September. And, for the well-balanced Sharks, the disruptions might have them off-kilter from the outset. Granted, there is enough veteran leadership to mitigate any lasting effects from the uneven preseason, but a sluggish start could sidetrack them from repeating as division champs.

Still, the Sharks feature a fine blend of youth and experience, skill and grit. That balance makes them tough to play against. They are relentless and disciplined, attributing to their best-in-class production at even strength. Actually, if there is room to improve, it is on special teams. In every category except power play and special teams -- where they ranked 13th and 11th, respectively -- San Jose was a top-10 team.

The power play, in particular, needs to be more effective. Even in the postseason, the spotty production hurt their cause, as they had the lowest efficiency rate of any team that played at least 10 playoff games. They lack a definitive quarterback on the blueline, a situation exacerbated by Gary Suter's retirement. Jeff Jillson showed promise early in that role as a rookie, but he is still quite green. Mike Rathje spent time on the point when he returned after a contract squabble and performed quite well. Yet, he is still best suited as part of the Sharks' stopper tandem with Marcus Ragnarsson. So, the burden to produce will again fall on the triggermen up front, namely Teemu Selanne and Owen Nolan.

All of which is nitpicking at this point. This team made few changes for a reason. They are in the minor-tweaking phase of their development. Jonathan Cheechoo looks to be the only rookie likely to see time this season. Would they be better off to start the season with holdouts Evgeni Nabokov and Brad Stuart securely in the fold? Sure. But the Sharks are at the point where their true quest and ultimate test begins in April.

Eliot's division rank: 4th in Pacific

Eliot's conference rank: 8th in West

Can the feel-good saga of the Wayne Gretzky-owned Coyotes continue? Well, they certainly gave themselves a chance to continue their makeover while competing for the playoffs.

Acquisitions Tony Amonte, Brian Boucher and Kelly Buchberger all addressed needs for the Coyotes -- both long and short term. Buchberger is another veteran presence who can fill a defensive role, someone Gretzky is obviously comfortable with from when their paths crossed in Edmonton. Amonte is a consistent sniper who legitimizes an otherwise patchwork attack. And Boucher is a proven NHL puckstopper, someone coach Bobby Francis can turn to in good conscience and make sure Sean Burke does not get overworked.

Actually, the makeup of this team is quite interesting. They are deep in capable bangers and checkers, able to put forth as many as three units who have no problem forechecking and creating chaos. Veterans Brad May and Claude Lemieux are even double-digit threats in that role. It is on the first two lines where Phoenix is less than settled. It isn't necessarily a negative, either -- it's probably a positive long-term -- but the undefined picture is due to having a cache of quality young forwards.

Daymond Langkow, Daniel Briere and Krys Kolanos are the top three centermen, with Langkow the senior pivot at 26. Kolanos has good size, whereas Langkow and Briere are smallish, but Kolanos is coming of a concussion that undermined a promising rookie campaign. How Francis deploys these three will be interesting, given the difficult matchups in the middle around the conference. On the flanks, the watch is on Shane Doan and Ladislav Nagy. Nagy is coming off his best professional season and Doan has registered three straight seasons with at least 20 goals.

Similarly, the blueline is a collection of mostly young talent, anchored by the fine all-around play of captain Teppo Numminen. The top six is effective, efficient and certainly unheralded, with most of the praise in their own end reserved for Burke. Granted, his aging-like-fine-wine performances of the past couple of seasons is warranted, so too is a little acknowledgement for this predominantly Euro and mostly 20-something blueline brigade.

To improve this season -- or maybe just to survive out West -- the Coyotes need to shore up their special teams play. Their penalty kill in particular let them down against the better teams in the NHL, against whom they finished below .500. Significantly, Phoenix faired poorly within the division, winning the fewest number of games (seven). The Coyotes also faired much better in the desert than on the road where they were six games below breakeven. Much of the difference again was special teams, where both the penalty and power play operated 4 percent more effectively at home. Subsequently, the Coyotes hired Paul Coffey to work as a special teams consultant. If he gets results, a trend could develop around the league.

Eliot's division rank: 5th in Pacific

Eliot's conference rank: 12th in West

Direction. The Ducks finally have some. It has been absent in Anaheim since general manager Jack Ferreira was forced out and Craig Hartsburg was the coach. Current general manager Bryan Murray has revamped the entire organization and turned the bench responsibilities over to rookie coach Mike Babcock. Babcock inherits a vastly improved roster when compared to recent editions. There is some semblance of depth at every position -- well, they are still thin on the right side, but a couple of youngsters could play their off-wing -- and the skill level is on the rise.

All of which should help reverse some disturbing trends in Duckland: a losing record at home; the worst power play in the NHL, partially explaining their ranking of 29th in total offense and their abysmal showing against any team with playoff aspirations. While the Ducks found a way to beat the weaker teams -- mostly with stingy defense, posting the eighth best goals-against average in the entire league -- they were a dismal 16-games-below .500 against teams with a winning record. Translation: The Mighty Ducks couldn't beat anyone worth beating.

With that in mind, Murray set to fixing what was broken -- the offense. The defense -- backed by the sound V-style mechanics of netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguere -- got results despite icing a rather conservative lot, especially with Oleg Tverdovsky shipped to New Jersey. In return, the Ducks received steady right winger Petr Sykora, who immediately became the team's top right winger. Also acquired was veteran Adam Oates, he of the passing wizardry and power-play prowess. Factor in two-way centerman Steve Rucchin's return after two injury-plagued campaigns and Matt Cullen's development and now proper slotting on the third line, and suddenly the Ducks have some credible lines forming. Central to the revamping process is 19-year-old Stanislav Chistov. His speed, skill and playmaking put him immediately in Anaheim's top-six forwards, and because he is comfort! ab! le on either wing, his timing with the Ducks couldn't be better.

The overall timing for Anaheim, however, is not so great. The Ducks should improve by as many as 15 points this campaign. Unfortunately, they are part of the toughest division from top to bottom in the entire league. Plus, an additional 15 points on top of the 69 gained last season projects to 84 points, certainly better, but still not playoff bound.

Darren Eliot, a former NHL goaltender, is a hockey analyst for CNNSI.com.

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