Solving the Issuse at Center

[Neb00rs]

Gonchar had 5 PPG in 25 games last year, is that monster enough? He's twice had double digit in power play goals in his career.

Gonchar had 5 even strength goals to Greene's 2 even strength goals, and Gonchar did that in less ice time. Why is PPG all important on the PP but even strength goals aren't important for even strength? Gonchar had almost as many PP points as Greene had total points.

Of course looking at last season counts. And the season before. These guys don't drastically change who they are overnight.

Gonchar is a monster on the PP. Having 24 PP assists is a lot better than having 11. His 6 PP goals also placed him 7th in the league for defenseman. His assists placed him 2nd. So yes, if you're top 10 in your position for both goals and assists, you're a monster.

Looking at previous seasons doesn't count. Gretzky had 215 points one season in the 80's and I wouldn't want him now. Sure, I'll take Gonchar 3-5 years ago. Maybe even last year. That's totally different. Pittsburgh overall is better at scoring than NJ and it's sad that Greene's PP goal average is about the same as his. Of course it's easier for Gonchar to rack up even strength points, look at the team around him. Gonchar comes to NJ and his production will decrease by 25-50 percent, just like any other player coming from Pitt/WSH not named Ovechkin, Malkin or Crosby.

[Devils731]

Looking at previous seasons doesn't count. Gretzky had 215 points one season in the 80's and I wouldn't want him now. Sure, I'll take Gonchar 3-5 years ago. Maybe even last year. That's totally different. Pittsburgh overall is better at scoring than NJ and it's sad that Greene's PP goal average is about the same as his. Of course it's easier for Gonchar to rack up even strength points, look at the team around him. Gonchar comes to NJ and his production will decrease by 25-50 percent, just like any other player coming from Pitt/WSH not named Ovechkin, Malkin or Crosby.

The inflation/deflation is why Gomez and Gionta scored so much more once they left NJ, right? The point being the inflation/deflation thing doesn't appear to really exist, guys put up the points they're going to put, for the most part.

Rafalski is the only recent example on defense and his scoring hasn't changed much going to Detroit.

Previous seasons can be a really good indicator of who a player is. If a player has a track record of being very good, then it's not unfair to think they'll continue being very good. If a player has 1 good season and 2 mediocre seasons before that it's probably fair to say they're a question mark for the next season.

Brady Anderson in baseball is a good example of why only looking at the most recent season is less successful than looking at the prior 3 seasons when projecting a players future production. Look too many years in the past, especially on older players, and you might not be taking decline into account. Take too few seasons and you might be allowing an aberration, good or bad, to greatly affect your prediction. 3 seasons seems to be a pretty good sweet spot of getting enough data while still having a similar enough player to compare to.

Edited April 29, 2010 by Devils731

[Neb00rs]

The inflation/deflation is why Gomez and Gionta scored so much more once they left NJ, right? The point being the inflation/deflation thing doesn't appear to really exist, guys put up the points they're going to put, for the most part.

Rafalski is the only recent example on defense and his scoring hasn't changed much going to Detroit.

I didn't say players that leave New Jersey will have an increase in production or that a player coming in will have a decrease. I was saying that a player coming from a prolific-scoring team to NJ will have a decrease.

Previous seasons can be a really good indicator of who a player is. If a player has a track record of being very good, then it's not unfair to think they'll continue being very good. If a player has 1 good season and 2 mediocre seasons before that it's probably fair to say they're a question mark for the next season.

Previous seasons stop mattering when a player is in his late thirties. Past seasons have almost no holding on what an aging player will do the following year.

Edited April 29, 2010 by ben00rs

[Devils731]

I didn't say players that leave New Jersey will have an increase in production or that a player coming in will have a decrease. I was saying that a player coming from a prolific-scoring team to NJ will have a decrease.

Pitt scored around 30 more goals than NJ this season and about 20 more last season. That's more than the Devils but not by an amazing amount. Gomez going from the Devils to Rangers was a 30 goal difference increase that led to 0 production increase from him.

Previous seasons stop mattering when a player is in his late thirties. Past seasons have almost no holding on what an aging player will do the following year.

That just isn't true. There is a decline that goes on in the 30s but it's not completely unrelated to what they did the years before. Players decline over time, they don't fall off of cliffs, in most cases.

[Neb00rs]

Pitt scored around 30 more goals than NJ this season and about 20 more last season. That's more than the Devils but not by an amazing amount. Gomez going from the Devils to Rangers was a 30 goal difference increase that led to 0 production increase from him.

Ok that is a lot more but not an amazing amount. But another way to say it is that opposing players have to worry about Crosby and Malkin when Gonchar is on the ice. I'm sure Andy Greene would benefit from that and their skills.

That just isn't true. There is a decline that goes on in the 30s but it's not completely unrelated to what they did the years before. Players decline over time, they don't fall off of cliffs, in most cases.

Listen, if Gonchar joins the Devils I'd guess he puts up 45 points for us. Not including money (because you did say Greene is a better value) I don't see how you could prefer that to Greene's points + defensive play.

[Devils Pride 26]

dude give up already. gonchar is much better than greene. period

[Devils731]

Listen, if Gonchar joins the Devils I'd guess he puts up 45 points for us. Not including money (because you did say Greene is a better value) I don't see how you could prefer that to Greene's points + defensive play.

I'm guessing Gonchar would put up more like 45-65, assuming 82 games, whereas I'm not sure we can expect more than some range of 25-40 for Greene. I don't think Greene's defense is so much stronger than Gonchars that it makes up for somewhere between 5-40 points.

I'll need to see another good year from Greene before I'm sold on what his level of play is. I saw a really good first half this year and a fairly pedestrian second half. I've also seen 2 pedestrian seasons before this one. I don't know who the real Andy Greene is but for most people it's usually in between how they play at their best and how they play at their worst, which means he's more second half Andy Greene than first half Andy Greene.

[Neb00rs]

I'm guessing Gonchar would put up more like 45-65, assuming 82 games, whereas I'm not sure we can expect more than some range of 25-40 for Greene. I don't think Greene's defense is so much stronger than Gonchars that it makes up for somewhere between 5-40 points.

Well we might have to settle for speculation on how many points he'll score. But I'd say no way to above 55. And I put my money on 40-45. I would say defensively Gonchar was the weakest (maybe next to Skoula) on the Penguins this year. I would say Greene was our strongest.

I'll need to see another good year from Greene before I'm sold on what his level of play is. I saw a really good first half this year and a fairly pedestrian second half. I've also seen 2 pedestrian seasons before this one. I don't know who the real Andy Greene is but for most people it's usually in between how they play at their best and how they play at their worst, which means he's more second half Andy Greene than first half Andy Greene.

Agreed Greene had a great first half and an average second half. I see the previous two seasons as A. Greene developing and B. Greene flying under the radar, although his play was indeed about average. However, I am confident Greene plays like a number one defensemen for us next year. But I think your stance on waiting to see is fair.

Edited April 29, 2010 by ben00rs

[DaneykoIsGod]

I would say defensively Gonchar was the weakest (maybe next to Skoula) on the Penguins this year. I would say Greene was our strongest.

Greene definitely carried the defense for a stretch early on this year, but he was very inconsistent. There were nights where Salvador was our best defender, others where White was. And at absolutely no time since Niedermayer left has any Devils defenseman played better than Paul Martin in games where Martin played at all. The degree to which this guy goes unappreciated just blows my mind sometimes.

[Neb00rs]

Greene definitely carried the defense for a stretch early on this year, but he was very inconsistent. There were nights where Salvador was our best defender, others where White was. And at absolutely no time since Niedermayer left has any Devils defenseman played better than Paul Martin in games where Martin played at all. The degree to which this guy goes unappreciated just blows my mind sometimes.

Martin is an all-star defensmen. He's come back from a long injury and his play was down at the end this year. I'm down on Martin right now, so I don't think I can say anything good about him for another month or two. I also don't like him over Greene on the PP ever.

[DaneykoIsGod]

Martin is an all-star defensmen. He's come back from a long injury and his play was down at the end this year. I'm down on Martin right now, so I don't think I can say anything good about him for another month or two. I also don't like him over Greene on the PP ever.

He was down at the end of the year? Martin came right off the IR and jumped on the ice with that steaming pile of suck Skoula, and he played well enough to make Skoula look solid. Then, in the playoffs, he was the only defenseman who didn't piss his pants and cough the puck up every the the Flyers' forecheck rolled in. Martin was probably our second-best player in the postseason behind Zubrus.

I really wish I knew where this myth that Martin sucked down the stretch came from.

[Neb00rs]

He was down at the end of the year? Martin came right off the IR and jumped on the ice with that steaming pile of suck Skoula, and he played well enough to make Skoula look solid. Then, in the playoffs, he was the only defenseman who didn't piss his pants and cough the puck up every the the Flyers' forecheck rolled in. Martin was probably our second-best player in the postseason behind Zubrus.

I really wish I knew where this myth that Martin sucked down the stretch came from.

I believe he led our defense in ice time during the playoffs and recorded zero points. Skoula sucked on another level. Down the stretch he was pretty good (he had a lot of assists) and played strong D, I meant at the END, when it counts.

[justdo3043]

Let me rephrase: All-around considering price and skill. Greene is better to have than Gonchar. JL moronically kept Greene off the PP the seoncd half of the season and the playoffs. That's the reason for the decline. Every time Greene comes out on the PP our PP looks better and more dangerous to the other team.

+1 for you good man...much rather get a solid shut down d-man and sign martin

not this year but next maybe this guy can amaze and become a solid 3rd maybeee 2nd line center

Edited April 30, 2010 by justdo3043

[themightyall]

so i never post but always read the forum because every idea seems to get covered. but for the center problem, no one has talked about demitra. van has kesler, mitchell and other to worry about. demitra is 35 so hes in the same sort of position as koivu, except demitra can play the wing. let me know what you guys think.

[Ksteinz]

Lombardi would probably be my first choice followed by Belanger for UFA centers. Plekanec would be sweet but everything points towards him resigning with Montreal.

There was alot of talk before this years trade deadline that the Panthers were looking to blow their team up. A would really like Weiss as a 2nd line centerman but not sure what we would have to give up for him.

Also if the Canucks make a long playoff run without having Mitchell in their lineup , I can see them letting him walk with the thinking that they made it that far without him . I would prefer him instead of Martin.

Far fetched pipe-dreams with about 0.004% chance of happening:

Trade Elias + Clarkie for Iginla (some talk about Iginla waiving NTC) OR

Langs + ? for Kaberle then sign Willie Mitchel or Volchenkov or Sutton instead of Martin.