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Everything posted by Neb00rs

  1. Because we've tacitly accepted that doing so is bad for business. Many people also choose not to get the flu shot even when they have affordable access to it. This in itself costs many people their lives - but because any given death can't be traced back to a single individual, no one bears the weight of guilt. If there was more social pressure to get the vaccine and stay home when you have the flu, less people would die. I want to be really careful when speaking about the current Coronavirus strain (SARS-CoV-2), because there's so little we know about it yet. We don't even know for sure how it will respond to warmer temperatures. The studies on it are just beginning and what's out there often isn't peer reviewed or includes small or problematic samples. Given that we have no idea about just how bad this virus is or what its mutations will look like, its extra important that we slow it down. One [non-peer reviewed] paper I read did seem to suggest that healthy young/middle aged people probably become much less infectious (or not contagious at all) after about 10 days or so (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1.full.pdf). If that's true, then the two-week quarantines that have been so widely recommended (or in some countries mandated) may just go a long way in slowing the spread of the virus. There was a very small sample size in that study though.
  2. Yeah, this. The precautions being taken to the slow the spread of the virus do just that: slow it - not stop it. Slowing the virus' spread will lower the toll on the overloaded healthcare system and thus allow medical workers to meet the demand for care. While there is no approved treatment for the virus, the ability of hospitals to manage the symptoms of high-risk patients (the elderly and those with certain preexisting conditions) could mean saving the lives of many of those people. If everyone gets sick at the same time, doctors and nurses simply won't be able to provide sufficient care and such could mean a catastrophe. That said, the virus will in all likelihood, end up infecting tens to hundreds of millions of people in this country by some point, no matter the precautions we take.
  3. This is your classic, "Daniel has a point jumbled somewhere in his overall nonsense" series of posts. Your point that Jack Hughes hasn't been very good this season, is, obviously correct. I've already said this before, but it's a little confusing as to why you would then conclude that he's a bust. It doesn't really matter that he's a 1st overall pick. The question is simply, "do players who eventually turn into star players have unproductive early years sometimes?" Obviously the answer to that is yes. Playing the numbers game doesn't really help you - because by that measure, Jack could absolutely still become a star still, especially given that he played this whole season at age 18 and...undersized. So the question becomes what is your analysis of Jack's on-ice game that leads you to conclude that he won't pan out? The other day (during a game where Jack missed his teammates with numerous passes) you mentioned his bad passing and I agreed that this is the most worrying thing about his game. But I also pointed out that he makes plenty of elite passes and plays too. And his skating is just fvcking ridiculously good sometimes - it's such a weapon throughout the ice and will keep him in the NHL for a long time. So it's not like he arrived at the NHL and is all of a sudden not capable of translating his skills. It's just that you only remember/notice his most visible mistakes and successes. Despite seeming like complete chaos to the lay observer, an NHL game is heavily structured and at high speed surrounded by the world's best players it can be hard to learn how to carry out that structure in real time. And Jack certainly gets a little lost sometimes as far as where to go and what to do goes. For example, I mentioned a few times during the course of this year that sometimes when Hughes sees opponents coming towards him he'll quickly get rid of the puck in irresponsible fashion - it's how he's learned to avoid taking hits/losing the puck straight from his stick. I'm sure the coaches are showing him video of specific instances and telling him, "Jack when that happens do _____ with the puck instead." So it's just a matter of turning that knowledge into second nature along with adding a little more size so he can protect himself and the puck a little better. Given that he seems to be a highly motivated player, I see little reason to believe he won't put in the time and effort to figure out what he needs to do out there (Just look at the Detroit game - does that hit you as a player who is unmotivated?). And yeah, while I think anyone who says, "Jack has been great this year," is lying to themselves, I also think that it still stands to be a matter of time before Jack is lighting it up.
  4. That's consecutive games, and back-to-back no less, where the Devils outplayed the other team to win the game and didn't just fall back on goaltending. I'm glad they won a couple this way. It feels kind of pointless to win games where the team plays bad - you decrease your lottery odds while showing little progress. These last two wins are something to build on at least.
  5. The Devils beat a good team and it wasn't because the goalie stood on his head - they were pretty even with the Blues today, probably even outplayed them. These are the kinds of games Nas needs to get consideration for the HC job next year. It's just one game though and the Devils have largely not been very good under him outside of goaltending (and penalty kill). He's going to need a lot more of this type of win to make a case for himself. Needless to say, the Hischier-Palms line was alive today - no doubt they are much better without Hughes and having Wood and his size/strength/speed combo instead.
  6. Based on precedent that was an easy no goal call.
  7. I don't want to become conspiratorial here, but to me, Jack is errr...not exactly 170 lbs. But whether he is or not, he can, even naturally, put on a lot more weight if he chooses to do so. Very few people reach their natural fat free mass potential in a lifetime. As for fat potential, well...humans seem to be much better at attaining that mark.
  8. I mean just speaking in terms of what's biologically possible he could (and will) gain well more than 10-15 pounds though it will take time and lots of surplus calories to maintain - especially given the cardio that hockey players get. That said he probably only needs 10-15 lbs to make himself safe out there. I'd like to see him put on 10 lbs this summer in a combination of muscle and some fat - he's young and has no real lifting experience which means he can synthesize muscle much faster than experienced lifters. He should be at around 4000 calories or more a day all summer. As much as Jack will deny it, his size and weakness have changed his game a lot this year. What's promising is that the last few games he's showed a tendency to use his body a little bit more, to lean in to players and drive. This year has made him tougher. But for the bulk of the season Jack has been manhandled out there, it's made him impatient with the puck and a ragdoll on the boards. I haven't actually minded the getting rid of the puck quicker part, you kind of have to do that in the NHL, and it's helped him avoid hits, hits he was taking early on and that could have seriously injured him. I'm a little worried about the occasions in which he throws passes into his teammates' skates but considering that he manages to also make some elite passes out there, I'll attribute that to some sort of weird funk rather than a lack of hockey IQ...for now. Yeah, as I think Nicomo pointed out above, there's only even three players from the 2019 draft class playing in the NHL right now and all of them have about the same stats with Kakko's defensive numbers maybe being the outlier in that they're a bit extra bad. Dach probably has been the best this year but making projections about any of these players full careers is a rather inane endeavor. Jack is still 18, and players of his size and age who play in the NHL are exceedingly rare. Even Kane was 19 for most of his rookie season, though yeah, he sucked a lot lot less than Jack.
  9. Yeah it's Mac. Keep in mind that while the Devils have put up a decent record since Nasreddine took over, they are actually scoring slightly less 5v5 goals per 60 minutes (2.21) than under Hynes (2.27). And since January 1st, the Devils are 27th in the league in that category (2.08). The Devils are not actually scoring goals, the goaltending just got better. To be fair to Nas, he's lost a lot of key pieces along the way, pieces that Hynes had. But he has to give the team a reason to keep him over another coach and he just hasn't done that. If the analytics department has the influence that the media suggested they have when Shero was fired, then Nas will almost certainly not be back. The Devils are giving up the most shot attempts per game at 5v5 and on the whole really haven't generated all that much more offensively than under Hynes - despite a December in which the Devils played faster and started to produce a bit more in terms of quantity and quality. Again, Nas has a minor league defense in front of him but what exactly is the argument he's offering management to keep him on? I can't imagine he's back after a single conversation with Dellow and Cane.
  10. Your hyperbole makes your posts sound stupid but you're not wrong on the goal. He makes some good passes out there and some really bad ones. Certainly missing Palmieri on two straight seam passes, on what was a functioning powerplay, was not good and led to the SJ goal. There was a time when the, "he's just ahead of everyone else," argument would make me think - but yeah, he's got a lot of developing and maturing to do. But for every bad play he makes, and there are a lot, he makes a play that a "low hockey IQ bust," simply could not make.
  11. Lehner is likely out of the picture for the Devils but the expansion draft really shouldn't deter the Devils from acquiring a second goalie. So you have to expose one...so what? Protect the one you think is better. Should the Devils purposely have one crappy goalie for an entire season just to avoid having one taken away? I'm not sure never having a player at all beats having the player for one season. Okay, maybe don't trade significant assets for one.
  12. Not really sure I follow the "proven" thing. Even the best goalies can get suddenly start to slip or have down years a la Murray and Vasilevsky (or get injured a la Kuemper). Whether Mac is "proven" or not the Devils need to try and get the best goaltender they can to be part of a 1-2 punch with Blalckwood. It's only really when you have three good goaltenders that you can start wondering whether you need all of them a la the Rangers who, by the way, would be best served finding a way to get rid of Lundqvist by retaining some salary or throwing in an asset with him. Though his situation is complicated because he can still play and with only one year left on his deal after this season, he's not a complete albatross. Other than that, the Devils should sign or trade for the best goalie they can - taking into account cap projections for the coming years - and let him and Blackwood compete for playing time.
  13. The Devils were already going to have to add d-men this offseason before they traded Greene and Vatanen. Now they have a long road ahead of them. Hopefully both Smith and Bahl can at least slot into the lineup somewhere in the next two years but neither of them are going to be better than either Greene or Vatanen next year. I think it's very likely Fitz moves a first round pick for defensive help. As for Mac, yeah you can't cherry pick sample sizes. I myself am rather uncomfortable ever using the the phrasing, "since "x" date, "x" player has been good." That's not how stats work - but you do have to choose some sort of parameters to confine your statistical observations within and a three month run is not a bad chunk of season. No one can be sure of Blackwood's future at the moment but that he's a rookie and playing like this, I do think it's a very good sign for things to come. But any netminder can go from starter to backup status or vice versa in a year's time, such are just the vicissitudes of goaltending. So, no conclusions drawn here and my point is only that Blackwood has been superb this year and I wanted to highlight that with the underlying numbers.
  14. It's great to see the league media finally starting to recognize the work that Mac has been doing. That's what happens when you play well for an extended period of time. On top of the stats listed above, Blackwood's play since December has moved him up to 4th in the league in 5v5 GSAx (goals saved above expected - a measure of save quality) for the entire season. And since that December 14th date, Blackwood easily has the highest 5v5 GSAx in the league (chart below). Since that date, Blackwood also has the highest GSAx in all situations. It was some early season weak goals against that sees him pretty far down the list for all situations GSAx since day one of the season. The stats above show two things. 1. The Devils aren't the best defensively and 2. Blackwood has consistently been making some of the most difficult saves in the league. Despite some poor showings, on the whole, if Blackwood finishes strong, he'll have had, in my view, an elite season. And he's a rookie. He's 21-12-7 on a team that is far away from making the playoffs. Pretty crazy.
  15. You can't really criticize Fitz for the wheeling and dealing aspect of this - the market is what it is. It's more an issue of pulling the trigger at the right time and choosing the right prospects and we really don't get enough info to judge. Was there a fourth on the table for Simmonds a week ago? Who were the other prospects offered for Vatanen? You just never know. It sounds to me like there is a broken bone in Vatanen's foot - just bad luck there. What I do like about what Fitz did today is what he said about Palmieri. He basically said that he's hard to replace and the he wasn't going to trade him unless he was offered something just ridiculously good. That's the right attitude given the Coleman trade. We have enough first round picks and not enough players now. It also really won't really ever be fair to judge Fitz's tenure if he isn't given the chance to run the upcoming draft. That's when he'll be able to really prove himself and put the picks he acquired to good [or bad] use. You'll notice that outside of Bahl, the Devils got nothing back really in terms of defense in any of their trades. That's a problem and Fitz is probably going to have to figure out how to trade one of our first round picks for a d-man.
  16. The stipulation is exactly what it should be. Basically, if Vatanen is healthy by the playoffs [and Carolina makes it in] the Devils get a third round pick. There was a point this year that Vatanen probably could have netted a top team's first round pick but alas, Kuokkanen is player that will, at least by next year, get a shot at a bottom six role in the NHL.
  17. Market wasn't great for Devils players. Fitz basically got the minimum return on all three players traded today. Domingue was shipped out the door for a possibly even worse goalie, but who cares I suppose? Simmonds gone for a likely 5th rounder and Vatanen gone for a fourth round pick and potential bottom-6 NHL forward. Meh. If Vatanen is out another month, that return will make a lot more sense. Hopefully the games played requirement for the pick to turn into a 3rd is fairly reasonable.
  18. Every player in the league, save for maybe a handful is "replaceable" to some extent I suppose. Yeah, there are players as good as Kyle Palmieri in the NHL. But 1. Kyle Palmieri is already on our team and 2. my interpretation of some of the rhetoric I'm hearing is that Palms is rather easily replaceable. He's not. Severson is not. Coleman is not. And both Severson and Palms are very important to the Devils' roster. So were Greene and Coleman when they were here. Losing these players will set the Devils back significantly. It might be right to trade these vets away, but let's not lose sight of that.
  19. "Severson has some skill but he sucks in the d-zone." "Palms is okay but easily replaceable." Sometimes trading your best players is worth it, especially when you don't think you'll be competitive soon. But proceed with caution, what you give up will need to be replaced.
  20. Daniel's not totally wrong about Hughes. I mean, writing the kid off is a silly - it's way too early for that. But yeah, he's had his moments of "wow" and then there's a lot of yuck. He seemed like he was figuring it out at one point this year and now he's just a bit of a mess. Sometimes it's not other players just not being good enough to keep up with him, sometimes it's actually just Jack making a bad play or pass. But it's hard to blame the kid, I mean, it can't be easy trying to adjust to the NHL while playing for an organization in disarray. The Devils, fired his first coach and the GM that drafted him, demoted the goalie he lives with, and has now traded two of the team's more important players. They've also played him with a variety of different linemates. And to be fair to Jack, there are many nights where he's far from the worst forward on the ice. Jack has a hell of a lot of talent, I expect him to be a star player in this league. But as of now he's way too small and weak to be able to really succeed in the NHL. He took a few hits early on in the season that were incredibly dangerous and were it not for Jack being young and physically resilient, they might have resulted in serious injury. Jack has adjusted his game by getting rid of the puck as quick as he possibly can - that's a significant change for a kid who is used to skating left and right with the puck across the offensive zone. It's better that he's getting rid of the puck though, we can't have him getting hit. On one hand Jack has to learn how to make things happen without having as much time on the puck but on the other he just has to get bigger and stronger. No more of this, "I don't want to get so big I can't move," bullsh!t. I know it's hard to hit a caloric surplus in season given the ridiculous amount of cardio the players get but he's got some serious work to do this summer. The first line was dreadful through the first two periods today by the way. If I recall correctly they had somewhere near zero shot attempts through 30-40 minutes of play. Nas just let them stick tho, and in the third they finally found some chemistry. Nas also had Jack out there for a few defensive zone shifts to end the game because...why the hell not I guess? You can see how Jack just has so much trouble along the boards - where another player might have been able to hold up the play at one point by being stronger on the boards, Jack's attack was ineffective and it resulted in a Marleau shot. Still, screw it, put Jack out there. This team is 100% in experiment mode now.
  21. I can understand the frustration with Bratt being out of the lineup given his assist and shootout goal last game. Though, as you'll recall the Devils got absolutely obliterated last game but in a post-Greene/Coleman world, Mackenzie Blalckwood's effort stopped them from losing 10-3, and actually stole them the game. The first line was particularly bad and there's really little argument to defend anyone from being scratched today aside from Merkley, Anderson, and Rooney, the only players to have halfway decent games. Thus, none of the usual players that can be scratched for Hayden deserved to be scratched. Any of Bratt, Wood, or Gusev could have come out of the lineup today with little complaint from me really, they all got shellacked last game. Yeah, you could suggest Wood comes out and Bratt drops down to the second line in order to make the Hughes at wing experiment happen, but I assume Nas didn't consider doing that because any line Gusev is on simply doesn't seem to work with smaller skill players who can't win possession. Wood is no Coleman but he'll likely be more effective with Gusev than Bratt. Thus, Bratt comes out.
  22. Fitz might be capable of doing the job, but he isn't very articulate and was, like Shero, a jumbled, stumbling mess in his interview yesterday. I prefer to judge GMs by their actions rather than words, as the position doesn't require much public speaking anyway. So far, it seems like he has a plan and has the backbone to pull the trigger when a good deal is in front of him. Still, Coleman was a fairly easy trade to make on paper and the jury will be out on Fitz through the end of the season. Let's see what he chooses to do from here, and whether he makes more changes or tries to starting building with the roster as it is.
  23. Neb00rs

    Our Next Captain

    The captaincy is somewhat trivial. But for what it is worth, it should go to Zajac after almost 1,000 games as a Devil, completely committed to the team. I don't really think the Devils should be in any rush to name one of their young players, namely Nico, the captain for the next decade and I don't think anyone's really earned it yet either. Giving it to the deserving Zajac for whatever time he has left on the team would both let Zajac go down in history as one of the Devils' captains and buy time for the team to decide who the next and long-term captain should be. Actually, they should just let Zajac wear it starting now and if he's gone by next trade deadline, he'll have had a full year with the "C".
  24. That's the return you get for trading a B+ player with an A+ value with an extra year left on his contract.
  25. I don't necessarily think Coleman has a lot of great years left. But to an extent you have to pay for some bad 30s years to get good players on your team. The Devils trading Coleman now has to do with a good return being on the table and the belief that he's at or near his peak. Hard to see him go tho, he was one of the Devs MVPs this year.
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