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Everything posted by Neb00rs

  1. Except Marner might not be signing an eight year contract - most speculate that's not what the Marner camp wants at this point. I'd guess part of the back-and-forth between Toronto and Marner involves Toronto not wanting Marner to go straight to UFA. A four year deal that brings him right to UFA is unlikely but on the other hand an eight year deal is not really what the Marner camp is looking for either given the rate at which contract amounts are increasing year after year. Point is, it'll be hard to use his next contract as a standard for Hall if it's not a long-term deal. For other RFAs on the other hand, it will set the bar in terms of years and $$$. In Hall's case, he'll probably sign an eight year deal, the last year of which he will be 36 years old. In my opinion, the Erik Karlsson deal is the one to look to. He signed for 11.5M AAV over eight years and the contract starts in his 29 year-old season - same as Hall's next contract. Does anyone really not see Hall coming within +/- $250,000 of 11.5/8?
  2. It's a double edged sword. The trend is to just lock up players as soon as possible because the closer they get to UFA the more enticing UFA is. Hall is a safe enough bet, get him to sign before he thinks twice.
  3. I don't think this is too far away from fair. But, and I'm not asking in any sort of rhetorical way here, if Ray asks Hall about signing come September and he is wishy washy, say he says, "I just need another month or so to think about it," then...are you really ready to say, "Sorry Taylor, you're traded!" at that point?
  4. You joke, but the fact that Jersey is close to Toronto, is definitely a helpful fact in Jersey's quest to sign him.
  5. The one thing that Devils fans are just going to have to be okay with re: Taylor Hall is that, no matter what, this is not going to be a situation where the player is like, "Nothing could be more important to me than remaining a Devil and representing Jersey." There is conflict there. He's not drafted and raised in Jersey. He doesn't spend any more time here than he has to. He continues to talk about how much he loves the city of Toronto (you can't really fault him for being passionate about the place). If he does sign here, it's going to be a product of him thinking, "The Devils have been a really good situation for me, it looks like they're the best situation for me moving forward, it's a pretty good area to play in, and thus, it's smart for me to sign there." I'm honestly okay with that.
  6. Yeah, what I don't get about the "pack your sh!t if you haven't signed by September" thing is that, if he hasn't signed by September but it's only because the two sides haven't gotten to working out a deal yet are you really going to say, "Sorry Taylor, fvck off." I doubt it. It's not ideal, but whether anyone wants to admit it or not, there's only one deadline for Hall and it's the trade deadline 2020. Hopefully we don't let it get that close to UFA 2020 before making him an offer/signing him but that's the deadline.
  7. There are some people who are speculating that the team could be waiting to see how Hall returns from the injury and most seem to be of the obviously unfounded belief that a deal doesn't happen this summer. But yeah, we are all speculating based on very limited information. As I can recall, the hints of info we have gotten since the season ended are as follows: 1. Hall made it clear he'd like to see more talent added to the roster - that seems to be a condition for him sticking around. 2. Shero stated at the end of the season that he was planning on sitting down with Hall later in the offseason to restate the team vision and see where he's at. We don't know if this ever happened yet. 2. After the PK Subban trade, Hall sent Ray a check mark by text. 3. Hall did a Canadian (I think Vancouver-based) radio-interview in late July in which he was pretty clear he hadn't made up his mind yet. He said something along the lines of, "I have to decide soon," in reference to re-signing with the Devils. That not only implies that he, as of that point (a week or so before Gusev trade), hadn't yet made up his mind but also that the ball is in his court. But that isn't totally implied by that. In that interview he also expressed support for Tavares making the decision to go UFA. 4. When Tom Fitzgerald was asked about how the Hall situation is progressing earlier this month, he stated, " "I know John Hynes flew up (Monday) and had a great meeting with Taylor in Toronto. So, yeah, things seem to be all well there." Obviously that doesn't tell us much. Other than that we are left in the dark, even moreso than the Isles were with Tavares. We don't even have a quote of Hall stating any specific desire to try to re-sign with the team and perhaps that is for the best. I imagine the longer we are left in the dark though, the more people are going to get irked about Hall, the more people are going to read deeply into every little thing he does and says.
  8. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    My feeling with Luongo is, that despite him never really accomplishing anything amazing with either FLA or VAN, he's one of the league's best goalies ever and a HOFer, so it just feels like someone has to retire his jersey. He basically bookended his career with 11 years on the Panthers, so I have no issue with them retiring his jersey for his entire body of work, not just what he did with the Panthers.
  9. I never been one to exaggerate the appeal of coming to NJ - especially in the past few years. But I really don't see any reason to believe that we've had an above average amount of key players leave over the years. When contracts are up players leave for above value deals - that's what UFA is - happens to every team. The Devils have also had plenty of players re-sign with them over the Lou years - even in cases where the player had tensions with Lou (Marty, Patty).
  10. I mean NHL Network is just the worst. How stupid. I mean, I'm not sure whether Hall will re-sign or not but where do these arbitrary percentages come from? The answer is "out of Mike Johnson's ass."
  11. I'm really not sure the return won't be as good midseason - especially towards the trade deadline when more teams are looking to add that final piece for a playoff run. The impetus to sign Hall, for me, is that everyday that the 2020 offseason grows closer, the more likely he is to test the UFA market.
  12. Taylor Hall was kind of sort of the NHL MVP a year ago. That doesn't come cheap. But the Devils can offer the 8th year to Hall, so I have some hope they can argue for less value in that year (37 years old). The Erik Karlsson signing didn't help though. Karlsson, like Hall, will start his new contract in his 29 year old season and the AAV is 11.5M. I'm not saying that's what Hall is going to get, but you can definitely use that, and Panarin's seven year contract (11.64M AAV), as a guide. Anything less than 11M and Hall took a team-friendly discount. I highly doubt that will happen.
  13. As far as timeline of signing goes - yeah, the Devils need to do everything to sign him before the season starts. This isn't because the market for him will diminish but simply put, because the closer we get to July 1st, 2020, the more likely and tempted Hall is to go UFA. That said, I take Ray sincerely when he says it's not just a one-way street - he needs to see if Hall is still on board with the vision of the team and is excited to be a part of what they're building before shelling out a big offer. What we've seen so far, from the little we have seen, is mixed messages, such is the nature of trying to dissect every little quote and rumor during the offseason. Hall seemed to be excited about the team adding Subban when it happened - such was evident in his checkmark text to Ray and his Tweet at PK. On the other hand, on Canadian radio the other day, he didn't sound overly optimistic about the team or re-signing here. But I get that that's how Hall is with the media to an extent - very honest/analytical but devoid of emotion.
  14. I can appreciate a man willing to stake his credibility on a gut feeling! Here's to your final few hours of being widely respected around here.
  15. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    @MadDog2020's favorite player.
  16. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    There could be preseason injuries that solve the roster questions in time for game 1 of the season. But, it's also not like there are no guys who are probably AHL-bound who are deserving of more of an NHL look (Bastian, McLeod, Anderson, etc...). Point is, it wouldn't surprise me if the Devils made a minor transaction to clean things up a bit. But, yeah, they could wait to see where they stand health-wise post-preseason before making any decisions - that's probably the smart thing to do. But if everyone is healthy heading into Oct. 4, they will indeed have to make a decision.
  17. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    I did have a similar thought - he has been silent since early July but that's largely because nothing happened until he traded for Gusev after which, yeah, he still gave a very terse statement and said nothing more. He might have asked them not to ask about it - it's almost too idiotic to think they wouldn't without that request - but that we don't know for sure makes me inclined to not put it past NHL Network hosts to just forget. I suppose I pay attention to Toronto media a lot, where Dubas isn't given the same latitude with the inner workings of the Maple Leafs - and couldn't really demand it. I oft forget that hockey media down here is a lot more accommodating to teams' and players' sensibilities.
  18. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    Imagine interviewing Ray Shero for ten minutes and not asking him about Taylor Hall. https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/nhl-tonight-ray-shero/t-277437418/c-68692603
  19. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    Teams can only have 23 players on their active NHL roster. The Devils are at 24 with Smith and Boqvist on the big squad. And the only waivers exempt players would be Smith, Boqvist, Hischier, Bratt, Hughes, and Blackwood. So you have to waive a player or send one of the previous mentioned players down/back to juniors/Sweden.
  20. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    This is a good roster in terms of talent and positioning. My question is, who did you waive in order to bring up both Smith and Boqvist to the NHL roster? You're at 24 players. Hayden? Rooney? I'm not trying to say I disagree with your lineup in terms of who is there. I think we all would like to see that roster take the ice opening night. But either Ray is going to make some roster cleanup moves, waive a player currently on the roster, or send Boqvist back to Sweden. I didn't think Boqvist would ever have a chance of being sent back, but with Gusev now on the roster, it at least becomes a possibility.
  21. Neb00rs

    2019 Offseason Thread

    Subban, Vatanen, and Severson are right-handed shots. Carrick is a right-handed shot. Greene, Butcher, and Mueller are the left-handed shots. Ty Smith is a left-handed shot. So yeah, if you're asking me who has a better chance to play opening night, Carrick or Smith, I'd say Smith. But you never know and handedness isn't everything.
  22. Now that the Devils have a fairly stacked roster, it'll be hard for them to not lose a real NHL player, but they set themselves up quiet nicely for the expansion draft in the past few years, notably by holding Ty Smith and Jesper Boqvist out of the NA professional ranks. All players who have completed two or less pro seasons following the 2020-21 season will be exempt. Along with Boqvist and Smith, Reilly Walsh and Jack Hughes will, of course, also be exempt. Nikita Gusev could be a UFA by then but if he was re-signed with the Devils before the expansion draft, he would also, be exempt. Significant Exempt players: Jack Hughes Reilly Walsh Jesper Boqvist Nikita Gusev Ty Smith It is, as has been stated already, too early to have a realistic conversation about the expansion draft, and such will be true until the start of the 2020-21 season, when the Devils roster for that year is set. It's especially too early in the Devils case because the team is locked into few contracts for the 2021-22 season as of today. That said, let's take a stab anyway. Teams can protect either 7F, 3D, 1G or 8 skaters + 1G. Additionally, "players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits." For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to assume that following the 2020-21 season, all of Zajac, Simmonds, Vatanen, Greene, Coleman, and Rooney are not on the team/not under contract with the Devils. And because I hope it happens, I'm going to assume Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri are both under contract. You can start to seen now why it's way too early to have this conversation - there's so many variables that could change. Given where the players stand today, the Devils would probably protect the following players F Taylor Hall F Nico Hischier F Kyle Palmieri F Jesper Bratt D PK Subban D Will Butcher D Damon Severson G Mackenzie Blackwood This would leave the Devils with an extra three forward spots. So let's assume that Coleman re-signs and throw in Pavel Zacha: F Taylor Hall F Nico Hischier F Kyle Palmieri F Jesper Bratt F Blake Coleman F Pavel Zacha D PK Subban D Will Butcher D Damon Severson G Mackenzie Blackwood. As you can see, even in this scenario the Devils will be in position to protect one more player whether someone on the AHL/NHL brink right now (McLeod, Bastian, Anderson, etc...), or someone that will be on the roster at the time (Wood, random FA signing, etc...). As of today, them most likely player that we will lose, will be one of Joey Anderson, McLeod, Wood, or a veteran player that will join our team next season. Maybe even Colton White who is projected at this point to be an NHLer. If Vatanen is re-signed, it could be him too. Again, so much stands to change between now and then. It should be said the following stipulations for making players available also have to be met before we can give away AHL prospects: * One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons. * Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons. This doesn't seem to be much of a problem though, we should easily have expendable players who meet those requirements. More than anything this should go to show, that Shero has carefully been preparing for the expansion draft while building this team. If we made more moves after last offseason or rushed Ty Smith/Jesper Boqvist, we might not be in as good position heading into the expansion draft.
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