Official 2012 New York Mets Thread

[nmigliore]

Andy Martino basically says 7/124 (if you count the 2013 option that's 8/140) is the Mets' final offer. Again, I can't imagine him turning that down unless he REALLY hates New York. It makes zero sense for him to risk playing another season and then expect to do better than that in free agency. And of course, there's no reason for the Mets to go any higher, either. They are already looking at a likely overpay. Don't push it.

Edited November 29, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 years and $138 million for David Wright. No matter how I look at it, I can't see how this is a good signing for the Mets. Maybe if 2008 David Wright re-appears, but who can really say they can see that coming?

Oh well, at least the Mets now have their $138 million "face of the franchise". Guess I should feel much better now.

[NJDevs4978]

Obviously you won't feel better, but I honestly think it's important for a majority of Met fans to finally have a homegrown star that will be a lifelong Met. Fifty years and they've only really had a handful of homegrown stars to begin with, and all of their tenures ended badly - Doc/Darryl with what issues they had off the field, Seaver with the contreversial trade/dropping him on the unprotected list and Reyes with what happened last year. Other than that, the cupboard's been pretty bare with homegrown players.

Although yeah, I'm not sure how long the good feeling will last when the Mets are in fourth-fifth in June and Wright's going through one of his prolonged slumps.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Obviously you won't feel better, but I honestly think it's important for a majority of Met fans to finally have a homegrown star that will be a lifelong Met. Fifty years and they've only really had a handful of homegrown stars to begin with, and all of their tenures ended badly - Doc/Darryl with what issues they had off the field, Seaver with the contreversial trade/dropping him on the unprotected list and Reyes with what happened last year. Other than that, the cupboard's been pretty bare with homegrown players.

Although yeah, I'm not sure how long the good feeling will last when the Mets are in fourth-fifth in June and Wright's going through one of his prolonged slumps.

Herein lies the problem...the face that Wright represents isn't necessarily a good one...I think, in spite of his overall good numbers for his career, he represents failures/frustration as much as he does success, especially over the last four seasons. He and Reyes were both perceived by many as guys who put up some nice numbers, but aren't clutch and aren't winners. This is not a guy who is universally loved in Metland. I think the fans who are grudgingly and cautiously happy today aren't going to be very patient with Wright if he has a first half like last year's second half (especially with no good half to help buffer the numbers). They will turn on him quickly, especially with this contract.

[NJDevs4978]

Wright has pretty much escaped the negative backlash from what happened with the big chokes though. If anything, Reyes took a lot of the flak in 2007 because of his poor second half and not running out balls, and 2008 was a historic pen meltdown. Yeah he had his moments of not coming through - not getting in a guy from third against the Cubs being one - but nothing as egregious as taking a called third strike in 2006, which fairly or not Beltran walked the plank for.

Besides, like Evan Roberts said, the Mets have exactly two guys under contract for 2014 - Wright and Niese. They can still remake this team and not be constrained by that deal.

[nmigliore]

The fan in me loves it. Wright has become my all-time favorite Met and I love the fact he's going to be here for what should be the rest of his career. He's our Jeter. Our Chipper. From a fan perspective, they had to do this.

The analytic part of me isn't so keen on it but I don't think it'll that much of an overpay and it may not turn out to be one at all. Bill Petti pretty much has a nice little breakdown here, which basically spits out some surplus value if you see Wright as a 5-win player in 2013 and aging normally: http://www.fangraphs...d-bet-for-mets/

Plus, these new TV deals are probably going to boost the price per win, which makes a 5% inflation projection a bit conservative.

All in all, I'm still a little weary of a market-value, 8 year deal for a player hitting his 30's, but, we know Wright had to be resigned and really, considering the revenue growth of baseball, this could end up turning out pretty well, even if Wright doesn't turn out as good as projected.

Edited November 30, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I expect it to be an overpay, but whatever. Wright is the face of the franchise. He's pretty much my favorite all-time Mets player at this point. From a fan perspective, I'm happy he'll be wearing orange and blue for what should be the rest of his career.

Explain to me how Wright being the face of the franchise is unequivocally a good thing. Because I don't see any overwhelming evidence to back that up.

Don't know how you can't question this one at all. How can the balance of the last two seasons not concern you? Or are you just ignoring that and hoping for the best? I am definitely hoping for the best, might as well since he's going to be a Met for a loooooooooooong time, but this has major potential to blow up in the Mets' faces.

[nmigliore]

Okay, please stop acting like I'm saying this deal is fantastic. I'm not. Pretending things can't go horribly wrong when committing a near-decade long contract, which looks the part of a market-value deal, to a player hitting his 30's is silly. It's risky. Every deal like that is risky. But at the same time, that doesn't mean you should expect everything to just fall apart. If you see Wright as a 4.5 to 5-win player next season, which is a perfectly reasonable projection based on properly weighting his last few years, with standard aging and 5% salary inflation, he's basically worth this deal. Do I see Wright aging normally? I don't know. That's tough to say considering his very strange last 4 years. But at the same time, similar past 3B have aged well and assuming just a 5% inflation of salaries is probably conservative considering the cash influx of all these new TV deals around baseball.

Regarding the face of the franchise stuff, come on. Mets fans all LOVE him and he could end up a Hall of Famer when his career ends. He's still a fantastic player. Don't act like him being the face of the franchise is some sort of bad thing, that's just ridiculous.

Edited November 30, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Okay, please stop acting like I'm saying this deal is fantastic. I'm not. Pretending things can't go horribly wrong when committing a near-decade long contract, which looks the part of a market-value deal, to a player hitting his 30's is silly. It's risky. Every deal like that is risky. But at the same time, that doesn't mean you should expect everything to just fall apart. If you see Wright as a 4.5 to 5-win player next season, which is a perfectly reasonable projection based on properly weighting his last few years, with standard aging and 5% salary inflation, he's basically worth this deal. Do I see Wright aging normally? I don't know. That's tough to say considering his very strange last 4 years. But at the same time, similar past 3B have aged well and assuming just a 5% inflation of salaries is probably conservative considering the cash influx of all these new TV deals around baseball.

Regarding the face of the franchise stuff, come on. Mets fans, besides you I suppose, all LOVE him and he could end up a Hall of Famer when his career ends. He's still a fantastic player. Don't act like him being the face of the franchise is some sort of bad thing, that's just ridiculous. I'm pretty sure you are the only one who keeps associating him with the failures of 2006/2007/2008 despite him being a complete MONSTER in those seasons.

C'mon, he is NOT a Hall-of-Famer, especially if the balance of the last four seasons is any indication of the player he's going to be going forward. Had he kept producing at a level close to 2005-08, he would've had a shot at it for sure.

It's not that I'm expecting everything to fall apart...it's just that the last four iffy years don't point to anything better coming, and I'm not sure why some are seeing signing up for more of this as some sort of slamdunk. Like 4978 pointed to, Wright has had some prolonged slumps the past four years, last year's second half among them. It was one thing when he wasn't making huge money...fairly or unfairly, with bigger money comes bigger expectations, and some fans are probably thinking to themselves "if Wright can get back to 2008 form...". If Wright continues to be as baffling an entity as he's been the past four years, and the team continues to be mired in the 70s as far as wins totals go, fans and press alike are going to get on him like they never have before. He'll be the face of the franchise alright, but not in the way he was hoping. Jeter and Chipper have been winners...yes, Chipper's Braves didn't win nearly enough World Series titles, but they got into the playoffs so many damned times. And Jeter and Chipper didn't do it all alone, obviously...they both had plenty of help...but you see those guys and you think "winners".

Wright has clearly done some nice things in his career, especially earlier, but we're not talking about a guy who's ever shown himself to be a great team spokesman, or an inspiring lockerroom presence, or someone blessed with intangibles. I think he's a formerly borderline great player who's now a pretty good inconsistent player, and I'm sorry, I don't build my team around guys like that. I definitely don't give them 8-year lifetime achievement contracts.

[nmigliore]

C'mon, he is NOT a Hall-of-Famer, especially if the balance of the last four seasons is any indication of the player he's going to be going forward. Had he kept producing at a level close to 2005-08, he would've had a shot at it for sure.

He's already close the WAR threshold for Hall of Famers and he has a handful of seasons of dominance at his peak. Also, it's not like he's about to retire. He could end up with 70 career WAR in the end with more than a handful of elite/near-elite level seasons. At the very least he's going to get consideration. This isn't Hall-related but he'll certainly have his number retired by the team.

It's not that I'm expecting everything to fall apart...it's just that the last four iffy years don't point to anything better coming, and I'm not sure why some are seeing signing up for more of this as some sort of slamdunk. Like 4978 pointed to, Wright has had some prolonged slumps the past four years, last year's second half among them. It was one thing when he wasn't making huge money...fairly or unfairly, with bigger money comes bigger expectations, and some fans are probably thinking to themselves "if Wright can get back to 2008 form...". If Wright continues to be as baffling an entity as he's been the past four years, and the team continues to be mired in the 70s as far as wins totals go, fans and press alike are going to get on him like they never have before. He'll be the face of the franchise alright, but not in the way he was hoping. Jeter and Chipper have been winners...yes, Chipper's Braves didn't win nearly enough World Series titles, but they got into the playoffs so many damned times. And Jeter and Chipper didn't do it all alone, obviously...they both had plenty of help...but you see those guys and you think "winners".

I don't think anyone called this a slamdunk. Again, he's getting a near-decade long deal in his 30's at market value price. There's plenty of risk involved here, make no mistake about that. I just don't think it's as bad you do. The price of a win goes up every year and it could jump higher than usual with the cash influx from TV deals. $200M contracts will be the new $100M, if it isn't already. MLB is a booming business right now.

Edited November 30, 2012 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Wright is going to named "Captain" of the Mets. I kind of find that silly and funny, mostly because the whole captaincy thing in baseball seems sort of stupid and I think everybody and their grandmother knows Wright is the leader/Captain of this team regardless of whether he is "officially" given the title or not.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Wright is going to named "Captain" of the Mets. I kind of find that silly and funny, mostly because the whole captaincy thing in baseball seems sort of stupid and I think everybody and their grandmother knows Wright is the leader/Captain of this team regardless of whether he is "officially" given the title or not.

Actually, for a guy like Wright, I think he could actually benefit from being the "official" captain...might bring out a little something extra in him that maybe even he didn't know he had...almost like a placebo effect. Why not, even if it seems like much ado about nothing on the surface?

[NJDevs4978]

I thought he was the captain anyway. Then again, Jeter was the 'unofficial' captain of the Yankees for like ten years before getting the stated designation

[thefiestygoat]

Risky deal but I think its worth it and its great to see he'll most likely end up being a career Met. Hopefully he stays healthy and productive for the duration of it. Do you think the Mets are going to try to upgrade the roster anywhere else? It would make a lot of sense given they just re-signed their franchise player.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Risky deal but I think its worth it and its great to see he'll most likely end up being a career Met. Hopefully he stays healthy and productive for the duration of it. Do you think the Mets are going to try to upgrade the roster anywhere else? It would make a lot of sense given they just re-signed their franchise player.

The Mets can't stop here. And Wright is not a cornerstone player at this point...he's more of a complimentary guy. The Mets would be foolish to think of him as the guy you build around...he's too flawed.

They need outfield help in the worst way...preferably a guy who won't strike out as much as Wright and Davis will...hoping they address that next.

[nmigliore]

Risky deal but I think its worth it and its great to see he'll most likely end up being a career Met. Hopefully he stays healthy and productive for the duration of it. Do you think the Mets are going to try to upgrade the roster anywhere else? It would make a lot of sense given they just re-signed their franchise player.

Probably not much in 2013. I'd like to see them sign a couple mid-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Cody Ross but realistically the best they'll do is just one (would by far prefer Victorino). But next year they'll be looking at plenty of cash to play with, even with this signing and even if Dickey is resigned.

With this current group, as tough as it may be to imagine for some, they really aren't that far from contending. The infield is solid and the rotation is a strength, not even accounting for Wheeler. Dave Cameron had a fantastic article about this over at Fangraphs today: http://www.fangraphs...-that-far-away/

David Wright is going to be 30, not 40, next year. R.A Dickey is a knuckleballer, so his age is about as irrelevant as any pitcher in the game. These guys are not on the precipice of losing all of their value. They can regress and still be good enough to be the two best players on a winning team. The Mets just need to flank them with fewer embarrassments. And, thankfully, those are the easiest upgrades to make.

Trade Duda to an AL team with a real outfielder to spare. Grab a couple of interesting guys who have been productive in limited roles and could use a full time job to show what they can do. Snag a couple of low cost relievers with some upside. There are five or six fairly easy wins to be added here, simply in replacing the dregs around the roster. And the Mets are five or six wins away from being on the fringes of the playoff race. Add in the huge swings in outcomes that can’t really be predicted based on things like hitting with runners in scoring position or winning one run games, and the idea that the Mets are years away from even dreaming about a 90 win season just doesn’t add up.

They’re not the best team in the NL East, certainly. They’re probably not going to make the playoffs in 2013. But, given the wide variance around both player and team performance and the pieces they have in place after re-signing Wright, this team could easily be a player in 2014. And, by re-signing Wright, they’ve given themselves a chance to pull an Orioles/A’s upset and move the timetable forward if things break right.

So, I say good for the Mets on not giving up on their short term future. They just aren’t anywhere close to being bad enough to justify punting the next few years while they wait for the farm system to develop new stars to build around. They already have stars to build around. They can win with the ones they have now.

Edited December 1, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Looks like Sandy is considering trading Dickey, or at least is open to the idea...can't say I disagree...Mets are selling high and as long as they don't get fleeced and get some legit prospects back, it's understandable why Sandy would do this. Dickey was terrific last season, and has been good as a Met overall, but who knows if he's got another 2012 in him.

If he moves Niese though, I'm going to be pissed, unless it's for a great return...he's young, his contract is reasonable, and he's coming off his best season. I can see selling high on a 38-year-old Dickey, but not on a 26-year-old Niese. If Sandy trades both Dickey AND Niese, he can say whatever he wants, but he's punting on 2013 at that point.

[NJDevs4978]

I'd be pissed because trading Niese would be a Paul Holmgren-type deal...sign a guy to a long below-market extension, then trade him right before the extension kicks in. There really should be some honor involved in those cases if the guy cuts the team a break, AT LEAST don't trade him for a year or so.

Edited December 4, 2012 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I'd be pissed because trading Niese would be a Paul Holmgren-type deal...sign a guy to a long below-market extension, then trade him right before the extension kicks in. There really should be some honor involved in those cases, AT LEAST don't trade the guy for a year or so.

To me, Niese should be a nice #3 or #4 going forward, for the length of his deal...you need guys like that in your rotation. Harvey and Wheeler could be terrific down the line, but as we saw with Generation K, things can have a way of not going to plan...and yeah, Harvey looked good when he came up, but so did Izzy (went 9-2 as a starter) and Pulse when they first came up...at least with Niese, we have a good idea of what we're getting...he should be able to win 11-14 games in each of the next few years. Not bad for a #3 or #4

Edited December 4, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

I want Dickey resigned. I just think it's silly to resign Wright, whose best years are theoretically going to come at the forefront of his deal given his age and somewhat-suppressed AAV, and then kick your 2013-15 chances in the nuts by trading Dickey. It would be especially terrible if you do it for a package of prospects who may not contribute at the Major League level for a few years. Getting back "now"-talent is more acceptable, but even then, are you sure you're getting enough back? I really don't know, it depends no whose coming back, which is where you have to trust the GM to make the right call. This entire subject has been difficult and I've wavered a lot in recent weeks. I just think keeping him makes the most sense, but what do I know.

Based on the rumors yesterday, it does seem like Sandy is asking for the world for Dickey, at least.

Edited December 4, 2012 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

That's the thing...Sandy can't get A ball-level talent back, no matter how good it's projected to be. He has to get back guys that can help by 2014 and even have a shot at getting called up in 2013. Seems like he at least understands that.

['7']

fvck the Mets if they end up trading Dickey and dont end up with a massive kings ransom. No arincibia/gose stuff

[nmigliore]

Arencibia would be a JOKE. He's a young Miguel Olivo. I like Gose but you'd need more. Sandy and the front office should be blasted if that duo ends up the return.

[NJDevs4978]

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2012/12/ra_dickeys_exit_from_mets_seem.html

I don't really get this...if the Mets want to trade Dickey then they should trade him (god knows they need to trade 'something' to get offensive help), but to lose him ostensibly over $6 million on a two-year deal seems like a petty excuse.

[nmigliore]

I don't get it either. I would just extend him. 2/26 is very reasonable.