'7' Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Well...so much for Mejia as a starter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 (edited) I kinda think we ruined Mejia already by having him bounce back and forth between the pen and starting randomly, the way the Yankees did Joba. Not to mention bringing him up too soon two years ago. Edited September 16, 2012 by NJDevs4978 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 (edited) Mejia's stuff is fine, he just can't miss bats. He didn't in AAA this year (4.8 K/9) and he couldn't even induce one swinging strike tonight. For a guy with mediocre control, that's not good. I'm really not sure what happens with him; even though the stuff is there I think you can legitimately argue he may not even pan out as a good reliever. Edited September 16, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 On the bright side, Ike is 3-for-4 with a walk and just launched his 27th homer. Certainly has a shot at 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I didn't mean to insinuate you or anyone else said he showed an erosion of talent. I was just referring to a post I made awhile ago that showed Ike's down 2012 was more about bad luck on balls in play (BABIP) rather than some sort of decline in talent, regardless of whether or not anyone believed Ike's poor 2012 had more to do with the latter or not. It was kind of a self pat on the back (since I identified BABIP as the cause in that older post) and since it should be even more clear now that Ike's down 2012 really was about BABIP and not much else (see the post above comparing his 2012 peripherals and career peripherals). But I think one thing that can't be ignored is that he's becoming a better hitter, even if it's not being reflected in his BA...he's been stuck in the .220s for almost a month now. It's pretty impressive that he's fashioned a .389 OB% for September with a .217 BA. I hear what you're saying about the BABIP and bad luck, but you have to admit that Ike looks like a much better hitter now than he was the first few months of the season overall...the BB-to-K ratios are like night and day. He's improved immensely in that regard. I kind of dismissed Ike's BABIP only because it seemed like a relatively small sample at the time, but if he that number improves (I think it was about 50 points below his career figure coming into this season), he could have a monster year next season...I could see him hitting in the .270s with an OB% approaching .390, with a very good BB-to-K ratio (something like 75-to-100), maybe 35 HRs...the kind of numbers that make it a lot easier to wave bye-bye to David Wright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 (edited) That's way too optimistic on Ike - .390 OBP; whoa? He'd need to hit near .300 to sniff an OBP in that area. Ike still strikes out quite a bit, and while it's not an alarming strikeout rate, it's still one that will hold him back from hitting much better than the .260's without some luck. I'm assuming you're optimistic based on his walk and strikeout rates since August, but keep in mind the sample size is really small; it would be awesome if he proved this was real improvement and not just some small sample size noise, but I wouldn't bet on it - career rates are safer due to the reliability in sample size (you're talking about 154 PA and 35 games compared to 1278 PA and 323 games). Even 35 HR is a bit of a stretch, I think. It's been shown that a player's power tends to peak early, usually in their age-25 season, which is the season Ike is in now; in other words, don't be stunned if his power takes a step back next year and he's more in the 25 HR range than 30+. I think his best case scenario next year is something like .265/.355/.480 with 30 HR. Edited September 17, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That's way too optimistic on Ike - .390 OBP; whoa? He'd need to hit near .300 to sniff an OBP in that area. Ike still strikes out quite a bit, and while it's not an alarming strikeout rate, it's still one that will hold him back from hitting much better than the .260's without some luck. I'm assuming you're optimistic based on his walk and strikeout rates since August, but keep in mind the sample size is really small; it would be awesome if he proved this was real improvement and not just some small sample size noise, but I wouldn't bet on it - career rates are safer due to the reliability in sample size (you're talking about 154 PA and 35 games compared to 1278 PA and 323 games). Even 35 HR is a bit of a stretch, I think. It's been shown that a player's power tends to peak early, usually in their age-25 season, which is the season Ike is in now; in other words, don't be stunned if his power takes a step back next year and he's more in the 25 HR range than 30+. I think his best case scenario next year is something like .265/.355/.480 with 30 HR. Might as well be optimistic. And yeah, I know it is a small sample size, and that the improved BB/K ratio could turn out to be the numbers evening out over the course of a season more than Ike improving so drastically...guess I'm just hoping for something big... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Dickey pitched well again, but the entire franchise around him has quit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 (edited) Dickey pitched well again, but the entire franchise around him has quit. Sure feels that way sometimes. Starting to wonder if Collins takes the fall for this, though he really didn't have very much to work with. Miami may be in last place, but Reyes has been pretty good for them...his numbers are pretty much right in line with his career averages (though his OB% is his second-lowest of the past seven years). I think Miami signed him hoping for the .337 BA and .384 OB% he put up last season, but he definitely hasn't been a bust. Mets still made the right move in not bringing him back...with his injury history the past three seasons before this one, they couldn't risk it. Edited September 18, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 (edited) Yeah no chance Reyes was repeating last year's offensive numbers, but he was still going to be really good and earn his paycheck if he stood healthy. So far he has. It was still too risky for the Mets. I would have only been for it if I believed they'd contend right away. Edited September 18, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) As expected, Mets agree to a 2-year PDC with the Las Vegas 51's, making them their AAA affiliate: The Las Vegas 51s professional baseball team of the Pacific Coast League (PCL) announced today they have signed a "new" two-year Player Development Contract (PDC) with the New York Mets, member of the National League East.The two-year PDC with the Mets will run through the 2014 season. Las Vegas just completed its 30th season in the Silver State and the fourth season as the Triple-A affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays (2009-12). The Blue Jays are expected to announce a two-year PDC with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons of the International League. The New York Mets spent the last four seasons in Triple-A Buffalo (2009-12). "We are familiar with many of the front office personnel with the Mets," 51s Executive Director Don Logan said. "I've known Sandy Alderson (Mets GM) for 20 years to go along with J.P. Ricciardi (Special Assistant to the GM), Paul DePodesta (VP, Player Development & Scouting), Dick Scott (Minor League Field Coordinator) and Terry Collins (Manager). These individuals are all very familiar with Las Vegas from the time they spent here with other organizations. We are excited to welcome the Mets as our new Triple-A affiliate." http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120917&content_id=38577744&vkey=news_t400&fext=.jsp&sid=t400 Edited September 19, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 As expected, Mets agree to a 2-year PDC with the Las Vegas 51's, making them their AAA affiliate: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120917&content_id=38577744&vkey=news_t400&fext=.jsp&sid=t400 Not great news for Met fans. Here come bloated hitting numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Not great news for Met fans. Here come bloated hitting numbers. And fans asking, "what's wrong with Zack Wheeler?" when his ERA is bloated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils Pride 26 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 What's the problem with LV? Like Colorado, the altitude? Or is it a small park? No idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) What's the problem with LV? Like Colorado, the altitude? Or is it a small park? No idea It's 2,500 miles away from Citi Field, for one. Cashman Field, their home stadium, is really out-dated too: The 51s play in 29-year-old Cashman Field, which lacks many of the amenities found at newer ballparks, like indoor batting cages and spacious clubhouses. And the teams attempts to replace the ballpark have been slowed by the financial recession that has hit the city hard. Ownership's agreement in principle to sell the franchise to a joint venture between the Howard Hughes Corp. and attorney Steven Mack could provide hope for a new ballpark, but that sale has been delayed by negotiations with the city over the lease at Cashman Field.-Baseball America The other issue isn't necessarily that it's Las Vegas but that it's in the Pacific Coast League, which is an offense-heavy league, leading to bloated numbers across the board. The silver lining about Las Vegas is that it's not ridiculously-offensive driven like Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, and Reno are, at least. Overall it's just not a good site, especially for an east coast team, to have your AAA at. I'm fairly certain the Mets will be looking to bolt once their PDC expires after 2014. Edited September 19, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 It's 2,500 miles away from Citi Field, for one. Cashman Field, their home stadium, is really out-dated too: The other issue isn't necessarily that it's Las Vegas but that it's in the Pacific Coast League, which is an offense-heavy league, leading to bloated numbers across the board. The only slight positive is that it's not ridiculously-offensive driven like Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, and Reno are. What nmig says...too many negatives and not nearly enough positives. Like I said earlier, I really hate the idea of Wheeler potentially pitching a full season there. But it's not like it's worth bitching over when it's set in stone that the Mets' AAA team will be there the next two seasons. BTW DP26, just to give you an idea of what the PCL is like...it's not that uncommon for teams to finish seasons with aggregate .300 BAs. And pitching staffs to finish with ERAs over 5.00. I've gotta think that has a way of screwing with some pitchers' heads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) BTW DP26, just to give you an idea of what the PCL is like...it's not that uncommon for teams to finish seasons with aggregate .300 BAs. And pitching staffs to finish with ERAs over 5.00. I've gotta think that has a way of screwing with some pitchers' heads. Yep, just compare the leagues from this year: Average offensive numbers, IL: .257/.328/.389, .717 OPS, 4.30 runs per game Average offensive numbers, PCL: .278/.345/.430, .775 OPS, 5.13 runs per game Only four teams (out of the 16 that are in the league) had a pitching staff ERA of 4.50 or less and only one was under 4. If anyone remembers, after years of being in Norfolk and Tidewater, the Mets got a taste of the PCL when they were in New Orleans for 2 years (2007 and 2008) and they immediately bolted back to the IL (Buffalo), where they've been the last 4 years. I expect the same to happen with Las Vegas. Looking back at those teams we had in the PCL, I kind of laugh, because many names and memories pop-up from 2008; Chris Aguila, Trot Nixon, the catchers Raul Casanova and Robinson Cancel (Ninja Turtle!), Brandon Knight (who had an important start in September of 2008, and actually won), Claudio Vargas, Tony Armas.... Edited September 19, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Matt Harvey doing a nice job tonight...but of course the Mets are doing nothing to support him. David Wright...well, what else is there to say? A whopping 10 RBI since July 30. Slugging .309 in September, after slugging .359 in August. 108 Ks and counting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) Domination from Harvey again. I didn't watch this one as much, but outside of the leadoff HR to Rollins, he appeared to be pretty much lights out. Wright hit a homer to give the Mets the lead, hopefully they can close this one out and end Harvey's season on a high note. Edited September 20, 2012 by nmigliore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Yea Harvey was brilliant after that leadoff HR...and shocking that Parnell didn't gag things up, especially after Murphys incompetence in the field that inning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 well...you knew that was coming after the utley walk. Jeez you NEVER walk a guy in that situation. couldn't be more done with these losers. What the hell is our home record the past 2 months? 4-30? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmigliore Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Well that went up in flames. Darn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'7' Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) Lost 23 of our last 27 at home. Lost 10 of the last 11 in general. This is the worst i've ever seen the mets play and I've seen some gutless choke performances... curious what the Mets record is in august and september since 2007. I'm guessing there total won/loss record is the worst in baseball Edited September 20, 2012 by '7' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs4978 Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) couldn't be more done with these losers. What the hell is our home record the past 2 months? 4-30? Close enough...4-23 since the All-Star break. Lost 24 of their last 28 at home overall. Edited September 20, 2012 by NJDevs4978 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colorado Rockies 1976 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) Lost 23 of our last 27 at home. Lost 10 of the last 11 in general. This is the worst i've ever seen the mets play and I've seen some gutless choke performances... curious what the Mets record is in august and september since 2007. I'm guessing there total won/loss record is the worst in baseball The Jeff Torborg Mets were pretty brutal, but this is definitely a tough group to watch right now. Lots of good from Matt Harvey...clearly needs to work on cutting down on his walks and going deeper into games, but the positives definitely outweigh the negatives. Wright with a HR...FINALLY! 2 HR and 12 RBI since July 28...a period of 48 GP. That's damned near Jason Bay-type production. Scary and sad. Edited September 20, 2012 by Colorado Rockies 1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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