Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

[nmigliore]

I have to see Duda at least finish out the year relatively strong...no way I expect him to keep up what he's done, and no one else should either, but if Duda fizzles in August and September, I can't automatically pencil him in at 1B for 2015. 

 

ZiPS projects him to put up a .777 OPS (which works out to a 122 wRC+) the rest of the season. Would that be acceptable enough? 

Edited July 9, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

ZiPS projects him to put up a .777 OPS (which works out to a 122 wRC+) the rest of the season. Would that be acceptable enough? 

 

Yes.  I'd still be skeptical, but for a team that doesn't seem able or willing to spend, you can go on a one-year (relatively inexpensive) arbitration deal with Duda and hope for the best.   

[nmigliore]

What a smart move by Wright to deke out Upton and turn that single into a 2-base hit. Nice. 

[nmigliore]

2-run homer by d'Arnaud! 4-1 Mets!

['7']

I can never understand why the Mets don't shade Heyward more up the middle. On that 9th inning hit, Tejada should've been playing closer to 2nd

[nmigliore]

Mets win! 3 in a row from the Braves!

 

Let's get the damn sweep tomorrow with big Bartolo on the mound!

Edited July 10, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

d'Arnaud's numbers since his recall (at least one hit in every game except one):

 

13 GP, 50 AB, 15 H, 4 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 3 BB, 13 K, .300 BA, .340 OB%, .560 SLG, .900 OB+SLG   

 

Even though he still doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in his hitting (I think the Ks and the past track record have a lot to do with it), he IS putting up some nice numbers.  That two-run homer was huge.

 

His defense is simply not very good though.  I think that's supposed to be the main thing he has over Plawecki...it's nice that d'Arnaud is hitting for the moment, but if he really wants to hold off Plawecki, he's got to become better behind the plate (and Plawecki is starting to hit in AAA ofter a slow start). 

 

Mets are now 8th both in RS and 8th in team ERA in the NL, for whatever that's worth.  Though it's nice to see the Mets beating Atlanta, just because, it's not really that big of an accomplishment...beating up on Teheran (who clearly didn't have his best stuff that night) was great, but the Braves clearly have issues that were temporarily hidden by that 9-game winning streak...they flat out don't score and rely too much on longballs.  The Mets average 3.97 RPG, the Braves are at 3.67, and the Braves actually strike out even more than the Mets as a team (not helped one bit by BJ Upton...how awful has he been as a Brave?). 

 

Basically, unless a lot breaks right for the Braves, it won't surprise me to see them sink to right around .500 again.  That offense is a lot to ask their pitchers to overcome.   

Edited July 10, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

There was never any doubt he would sign, but the Mets finally signed their 1st round pick Michael Conforto to a slot deal, pending a physical. Glad to get him in the system, he's likely going to Brooklyn for the summer. As an advanced college bat, he should move rather quickly. Some believe he can jump straight to AA.

 

Honestly this was probably my favorite 1st round pick of the Alderson era. He was considered the best hitter in the draft by Baseball America. Here's what they wrote about him in their draft capsule:

 

While other college and high school position players have better all-around tools, Conforto ranks as the best present hitter in the 2014 draft. He has had a monster junior season for Oregon State, building off his first two seasons when he was an All-Freshman selection in 2012 and led the Beavers to Omaha in 2013. Listed at 6-foot-2, 217 pounds, Conforto has present strength and above-average bat speed. He has controlled his aggressiveness as a junior, taming a swing that got too big over the summer with Team USA. He’s become a more selective hitter, ranking second in the country in walks and first in on-base percentage while hitting .410 though the first week in May. After hitting 24 homers in his first two seasons combined, Conforto had just five thus far as a junior, giving some evaluators pause because he’s a bat-first player. He has plus raw power and should project to hit 20-25 annually. He also has improved his fringy outfield defense, which is seen as adequate for left field, with average arm strength that doesn’t always play. Conforto has shown playmaking ability with the glove, however, with show-stopper plays in the College World Series last year and key outfield assists in games against rival Oregon.

 

 

Some more quotes from other draft gurus:

 

Quick hands and a solid base. The kid just hits. And its easy. Don't expect huge power but the avg will be there along with consistency. I tend to not like college bats but Conforto is the real deal. (Ryan Parker, Baseball Prospectus)

 

 

 He profiles as a power-first middle-of-the-order bat capable of 25-plus home runs a year. While the on-base production this spring has been staggering, the walks will likely drop some as more advanced arms challenge him in the zone. He could come off the board in the top 15 picks and is a lock for first round selection." (Nick Faleris, BP)

 

 

 

Conforto's signature tool is his left-handed power, which could produce 25-plus homers on an annual basis once he gets to the Major Leagues. He doesn't get cheated at the plate, taking a big uppercut hack that produces nice loft on his drives.

While he's willing to take a walk when pitchers won't challenge him, Conforto swings and misses too much to hit for a high average. Most of his value comes from his bat, because while he has some athleticism, he's a left fielder with subpar speed, range and arm strength. (MLB.com)

 

Edited July 10, 2014 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Keeping up with the prospect theme, Keith Law with very positive commentary on Dilson Herrera from his chat today:

 

Keith Law (NY)
What is your opinion of Dilson Herera? Will he be a starter and which MIF position will he settle in to?

Klaw
Starter at 2b. And a good one.

 

[nmigliore]

Tanaka has a torn UCL and we usually know where that ends up. Just another sad reminder of the enormous risk in pitchers, which is very relevant in our case given the crop of arms coming through the system and perhaps the hesitation -- both from fans and the front office -- in moving them for an established hitter. Only takes one pitch for everything to be flipped upside down. 

 

Yanks have to be floundering with their rotation. Colon has success pitching in new Yankee Stadium (2011) and familiarity with the manager and GM who originally took a flier on him. I know Met-Yankee trades are rare, but I wonder if there could be a match there. I can't imagine Colon having much value as a 41 year old with a below average ERA and another year on his deal, but his core numbers (K%, BB%, GB%) are all in line with last season and portend to a pitcher who should be around league average, and we know Cashman is aware of that kind of stuff given his acquisition of McCarthy this weekend.

 

I personally don't think his contract is as big of a burden as people think -- $10 million is perfectly fine for a league average hurler -- but there could be an overflow of starters here before we even talk about Syndergaard debuting or Harvey returning, so saving that cash and redistributing it to a more pressing need (whether at the deadline or next winter), while grabbing a mid-tier prospect in the trade, would be pretty sufficient. 

Edited July 11, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Yankees made a deal for Brandon McCarthy...numbers are pretty bad, though if you're a believer in FIP, then maybe you have hope for him...his ERA last year was 4.53, his FIP 3.75; his ERA this season is 5.01 and his FIP is 3.79.

 

But his "traditional" stats over the past couple of seasons are hard on the eyes:

 

40 starts, 244.2 IP, 292 H (ouch), 129 ER, 28 HR, 41 BB (7 intentional), 169 K, 4.75 ERA, 8-21 record

 

I've often thought Colon could help the Yankees, but I can't help but wonder if Yankee Stadium would eat him alive.  He hasn't put up terribly good numbers in New Yankee Stadium for his career (5.04 ERA, 14 HR allowed in 84.0 IP there), and he got bombed there earlier this season.  Unfortunately, Colon is probably not going to fetch the kind of return we're hoping for, unless he gets really hot again...but right now, here's what GMs will see: 

 

CitiField ERA:  2.72 ERA, .259 BABIP (well below league average, usually about .300).  All of his pitching numbers are considerably better at home.

Away ERA:  5.06, .310 BABIP (not much higher than league average).  Four bad starts have hurt his road numbers (six out of ten road starts have actually been quite good), but I'm guessing GMs will take the whole sample into account.

 

Basically, right now he's looking like a CitiField wonder who pitched into some good luck in his home ballpark and may be due for some regression...which may either turn some GMs off or make them not offer much to get him.  The age, weight and second year on the contract don't help either.  I'm starting to think he might still be here come Aug 1.     

 

I've wondered the same thing, re: Colon and the Yankees, but it's probably not a great match.  BTW take a look at his New Yankee Stadium numbers...he hasn't has a lot of success there.  With the way his last three starts have gone, Sandy pretty much has to hope that Colon picks it back up.  3 or more ER in each of his last three starts (13 ER in 21 IP), even though he provided innings, is not good in 2014...major-league average ERA is currently 3.80, and as has been pointed out, Colon's current 3.99 mark is above that, and not only that, tentative GMs are sure to notice the home/road splits and wonder how much of Colon's overall respectable numbers are CitiField driven.  Not to mention the Yankees aren't the kind of offensive team that can score enough for guys who need 4+ runs to win.  Colon needs to get into another nice 2 ER or less per game groove.   

 

As as we know, Colon has been a Yankee before, in 2011...his numbers that season are pretty similar to this one so far, except now he's giving up even less walks now than he did then.  So there's familiarity there.  But I can't see the Yankees giving anything of real value for him...I could actually live with that, as I've always felt Colon's signing was kind of unnecessary, and that his money could be used to help fill other holes. 

Edited July 11, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

I just think they're desperate enough to take a plunge on him and hope he regresses to his DIPS. They literally just did that with the McCarthy, who has the 7th worst ERA and 15th worse HR/9 rate among qualified starters this season but a significantly better FIP and xFIP. And Colon hasn't been nearly as bad McCarthy results-wise. 

 

I'd certainly want more than a Vidal Nuno in return, though. Jim Bowden suggested the teams are a match yesterday (before the Tanaka news broke) and threw out names like Aaron Judge, Peter O'Brien, Greg Bird, or Dante Bichette Jr.. Judge isn't happening, but one of the other three names doesn't seem unrealistic. They basically all profile best as 1B, which limits their prospect value. O'Brien has massive power but doesn't walk much and is on the older side. Bird has been more okay than good in the FSL after a big year in the SAL. Bichette Jr. has decent numbers for his age in the FSL but might have to move to 1B and didn't even make the Yankees' top 30 (Baseball America) before the 2013 season. 

 

Mason Williams was once considered one of the top prospects in the game but he's been awful the last two years. He's still just 22 though and could be suffering from a lot of bad luck this year (.235 BABIP). He might be nothing at this point too, but the upside could be worth taking a flier on. BA still ranked him as the #3 Yankee prospect pre-2013. 

Edited July 11, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I guess whatever the Mets get in return, if it's something of value that doesn't really fit in with their plans, they can always flip him as part of a deal for something else.  For me, I'm not looking for any big returns, but I have to admit, if the Mets wind up eating a significant portion of the contract AND don't get anything decent back, then I'm going to be ticked.  I can live with a meh return as long as the Mets have $8-$10 million of Colon's money to spend next year.     

[nmigliore]

Discussion involving Lagares on NYFS got me thinking about Carlos Gomez....

 

His 2014: 14 HR, .871 OPS (10th among qualified OF), +4 WAR in just 84 games this season. He's 3rd overall in position player WAR dating back to last season. 

 

CR, please tell me you are now a believer.

Edited July 11, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Discussion involving Lagares on NYFS got me thinking about Carlos Gomez....

 

His 2014: 14 HR, .871 OPS (10th among qualified OF), +4 WAR in just 84 games this season. He's 3rd overall in position player WAR dating back to last season. 

 

CR, please tell me you are now a believer.

 

He has become a much more consistent player.  Last year his year was bolstered by an unconscious first 6 weeks or so.  Much different story this season...very steady and yes, very good.   

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

That was a moonshot by Duda.  Crushed it.

 

Hope Zack can take it home...he's owned the Marlins in his short career.

[nmigliore]

Tremendous play by Nieuwenhuis in the corner to trap the ball as he was sliding and then hop up and fire to the cut-off man. That run scores easily if he doesn't make that play. 

 

Great play Zack right after!

Edited July 12, 2014 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Monstrous blast from Wright. 6-1!

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Third straight good start for Wheeler (I think this game was the first time it was noted on air that Wheeler just dominates the Marlins), though the laboring aspect of his game persists:

 

7/11:  6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 114 pitches

7/06:  6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 111 pitches

6/30:  6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 113 pitches

 

Totals:  19.1 IP, 15 H, 3 ER, 9 BB, 14 K, 1.25 WHIP

 

It's definitely a bit of a mixed bag...the 5 BB in the 6/30 outing hurts this small sample from a WHIP standpoint (which is still pretty good regardless), but needing 120 pitches to get through seven innings is going to be tough on his arm.  It wouldn't surprise me if he had another downturn soon...things are breaking his way for the moment. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Nice little run the Mets are on.  They really need to sweep this series though.  Always hard not to be wary of the Mets...we've seen these "well, maybe" bursts before. 

[nmigliore]

Fun finish. Just keep winning boys.

Edited July 12, 2014 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

Nice little run the Mets are on.  They really need to sweep this series though.  Always hard not to be wary of the Mets...we've seen these "well, maybe" bursts before. 

 

Especially coming now before the trade deadline lol, I can't really get excited until they start doing it out of the break too (since we know they always seem to die right after the ASB in recent years).

[nmigliore]

Sounds like deGrom could seem some time in relief after the All-Star break to conserve his innings:

 

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN  14m  

 More

Terry Collins said it will be discussed whether Jacob deGrom can use a brief respite from rotation out of break to conserve innings.

 

I understand this might have to happen at some point, but I don't like doing it now. If the Mets were in a good playoff position, that's one thing, because then I'd want deGrom available in September/October (just ask the Nats how they felt not having Strasburg in 2012 because they didn't give him respites during the year). But they're not going to the playoffs. Yeah, they're playing great right now, and this is probably as excited and fun I've been to watch this team play all year -- so much so that I'm actually going again tomorrow, my 2nd game in as many weeks (deGrom pitching helps, as does the 2 for $28 ticket deal ). But as much as we want to believe, a playoff run isn't going to happen. With that in mind, it make a lot more sense to just leave deGrom alone and then put him in the bullpen or shut him down later in the year, if even necessary. 

 

Unfortunately this might happen just because they don't want to take Dice-K out of the rotation yet, even though his success has largely been a mirage (3.55 ERA, 4.57 xFIP). If Niese does actually come back off the DL after the break, they'd have to bump someone out. It should be Dice-K, but they can choose to go the deGrom route and play the conserve innings card. I really, really hope they don't.

Edited July 12, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I hate this conserve innings crap.  For one, it's not making ANY difference at all...these guys get hurt more now than they ever did.  For another, deGrom is doing a nice job...let the guy fvcking pitch.  If they feel the need to shut him down later (don't fvck around with him in the bullpen), hopefully Syndergaard might be ready to get a few starts.  Dice K has been better than we ever could've hoped for overall, but yeah, not sure how much longer this can last with him...he walks a ton of guys and has now given up 4+ ER in three out of his last four starts.

[nmigliore]

Sweep!

deGrom has been nothing short of spectacular.