The “Give Props to the Member Who Had a Seemingly Iffy Take…And Was Proven RIGHT” Thread

[nessus]

@Guadana My initial take in this very thread was that people who were in favor of firing Shero were RIGHT! I'm not someone trying to die on the "Ray Shero was amazing" hill. That point I made about possibly being pressured by ownership is merely conjecture. While it's a thought I had, I don't necessarily believe it to be true. I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I will continue to defend some things Shero did. I don't think picking Smith was awful. I think he was a player whose development curve fell off a cliff after he started off quite promising (and the pick only looked better a year after his draft). I also don't think the Gusev move was bad, even if in hindsight, it wasn't the move to make. And let's not pretend "it's one-for-one" wasn't one of the biggest steals we've seen in the past 10 years, even if it turned out to not be the best thing for the organization long term. Lots of caveats there, which I think speaks volumes - Shero could wheel and deal, but maybe didn't have the best insight regarding the big picture.

All that said, I do agree with the majority of what you're saying here. Too much emphasis on "fast, attacking, supportive", too much patching up weak spots with short term solutions that were more hopeful than definite, and too much gambling on the fate of the team with iffy players.

No matter which way you look at it, I don't think Shero's strategy to put this organization back on track was the right one. It was more of the "take everything you can possibly get and hope that it forms a successful team" rather than Fitzgerald's more comprehensive approach with a much better overall vision.

[vincois]

I thought Shero had a good vision & did a good job with nothing to start with. Remember if your team sucks, very few of your players are desirable to other teams. Hall trade alone was a grand slam. In the playoffs the following year til he left.

 Imagine this: Build a team through the draft, sprinkle in some talented vets, and most importantly, massage your cap space giving you flexibility. Blend in a lil AHL draft pics? Wow, what a concept! Other teams would be so envious. Is there a team that can boast this?  That would be the NJ DEVILS!  our team. We're going to have a few good years. Let's enjoy

[Guadana]

20 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

@Guadana was starting to wonder if you were OK...good to see that you are.

 

I`m more than OK. I`m working on the project I really like. And it is the result of my long methodical hard work of changing specialization. 
I made a test task and it took a significant part of my time.
 

 

19 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Re:  "could lose some scoring"...only if there's injuries to key players.

Jack, Nico, and Bratt of course will all be here next year (and long beyond).

Timo will be here for his first full season as a Devil.

I think Dawson's production should be around where he was last season (but hopefully more consistent).

Based on the balance of Toffoli's last four seasons, I think about a 30 G and 30 A per 82 GP rate is a reasonable expectation.  Hard to imagine he won't be an upgrade over Tatar offensively.  

Fair to wonder if Haula winds up seeing Top 6 minutes with Jack again...also if Palat sees some Top 6, depending on who's hot when.

Even if Nico and Bratt's numbers fall back a little...I think Timo, Jack, and Toffoli should make up the difference.  The Devils should have a formidable Top 6.  Also won't hurt that the top penalty minute player in Wood is gone, and the player who trailed him (Brendan Smith) doesn't figure to play nearly as much as he did last season.  Devils should wind up taking less (bad) penalties than they did last season...less time killing penalties.

SO will the Devils match the 289 actual goals for (3.52 GPG) they scored last season?  I think they find a way to do at least that, even with Luke likely to have some rough patches as he adjusts to the NHL.

re:  the goaltending...if it becomes a problem during the season, I suspect that Fitz will try to address it.  I've said it elsewhere but I think that Fitz is trying very hard not to tie up too much money in his netminders...for as long as he can, anyway.  

Ok, let`s start to think about it. 
We lost Tatar, Sharangovich, Boqvist, Severson, Graves, Wood, Zetterlund - 77 goals
We added Toffoli, Noesek, Miller, Luke Hughes, Holtz\Foote, Meier 34+6+?+?+40 = 80 goals
But! First of all we don`t know will Meier be able to repeat. And Toffoli too, especially him. People shold slow down expectations and wair something like 20\25g+20\25a. Because he will play more limited role more likely. 
Nico will play more defensive role, because Tatar played a lot of interior game. He was a big part of Nico success this year. 
Mercer can make step forward in his game but 27 goals could not be repeated. And it works for full team. Only Palat was injured previous season(his game could give some more goals if he will stay healthy), but all of our leaders were healthy most of the year. It was a luck of previous season, Devils achived new record in wins and points. It`s okay to make step back, especially with weaker defense this season(good defense impacted great offense) devils will face more defensive minutes this season.

So I`m not telling we are weak team or  we will lose a lot of games or something like that, but it is pretty reasonable to wait not as great regular season as it was season ago. Last season, many positive factors coincided, and in order to repeat this season, many positive factors must coincide again. Most importantly, the team must work on stability, on reliability throughout the site, on control. If in the end we score less and win less, there's nothing to worry about. Florida and Tampa in their very successful seasons did not achieve much success in the playoffs, but then developed their successes already in the post-season tournament.

[Guadana]

13 hours ago, nessus said:

@Guadana My initial take in this very thread was that people who were in favor of firing Shero were RIGHT! I'm not someone trying to die on the "Ray Shero was amazing" hill. That point I made about possibly being pressured by ownership is merely conjecture. While it's a thought I had, I don't necessarily believe it to be true. I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but I will continue to defend some things Shero did. I don't think picking Smith was awful. I think he was a player whose development curve fell off a cliff after he started off quite promising (and the pick only looked better a year after his draft). I also don't think the Gusev move was bad, even if in hindsight, it wasn't the move to make. And let's not pretend "it's one-for-one" wasn't one of the biggest steals we've seen in the past 10 years, even if it turned out to not be the best thing for the organization long term. Lots of caveats there, which I think speaks volumes - Shero could wheel and deal, but maybe didn't have the best insight regarding the big picture.

All that said, I do agree with the majority of what you're saying here. Too much emphasis on "fast, attacking, supportive", too much patching up weak spots with short term solutions that were more hopeful than definite, and too much gambling on the fate of the team with iffy players.

No matter which way you look at it, I don't think Shero's strategy to put this organization back on track was the right one. It was more of the "take everything you can possibly get and hope that it forms a successful team" rather than Fitzgerald's more comprehensive approach with a much better overall vision.

Smith is okay pick and Gusev addition is okay in vaccuum. When your team is build on what Devils had in the moment, gm should try to find something different. When 

When this happens all the time with every solution, this is already a problem.

With regards to Smith specifically, I'm never in a hurry to write anyone out of the potential, but as soon as he started playing in the NHL, everything became clear to me personally. I think Fitz understood this very well, too, and it was not for nothing that he first drafted Hughes, Mukhamadullin and Edwards in the first year immediately after Smith's "successful first season".
In general, I personally think that even if someone did not think so (whether it was a fan, or a draft nerd, or an employee of the NHL team office), then he should conclude that it is probably not worth taking not the most reliable, medium-sized defenders with poor skating, even if they can give out great passes.

Overall I can name Shero strategy as cheating. He tried to make something faster than it should. And any Eastern sage would condemn it.

59 minutes ago, vincois said:

I thought Shero had a good vision & did a good job with nothing to start with. Remember if your team sucks, very few of your players are desirable to other teams. Hall trade alone was a grand slam. In the playoffs the following year til he left.

 Imagine this: Build a team through the draft, sprinkle in some talented vets, and most importantly, massage your cap space giving you flexibility. Blend in a lil AHL draft pics? Wow, what a concept! Other teams would be so envious. Is there a team that can boast this?  That would be the NJ DEVILS!  our team. We're going to have a few good years. Let's enjoy

You didn't figure it out yourself and didn't read anything from the above. Please take your time.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Guadana

[Pepperkorn]

What are you all, ME?  These are HUgE posts. 

[NJDevs4978]

Whoever didn't think that Fitz was just gonna be Shero 2.0 only with less autonomy

The funny thing is I do think to a degree Fitz's plan is similar to Shero's, he's just...better at it and better at recognizing a hockey team is like an orchestra (couldn't help but use the Lou saying).  Shero just talent collected with no regard as to whether the pieces fit and complemented each other.  But even similar things they do are working out a lot better for Fitz.  Whereas Shero traded for Mirco Muller, that was Fitz's Siegenthaler trade - similar mindset in dealing a high-ish pick for a young defenseman who'd stagnated, only one guy busted and the other's really worked out.

Edited September 14, 2023 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Just now, NJDevs4978 said:

Whoever didn't think that Fitz was just gonna be Shero 2.0 only with less autonomy

The funny thing is I do think to a degree Fitz's plan is similar to Shero's, he's just...better at it and better at recognizing a hockey team is like an orchestra (couldn't help but use the Lou saying).  Shero just talent collected with no regard as to whether the pieces fit and complemented each other.

I know I've said it a bunch but Shero was in SUCH a tough spot...he really had SO little to start out with.  There wasn't a position that didn't need to be addressed...and the one position that seemed somewhat secure (due to Schneider) pretty much crumbled overnight.  I think Shero was just trying to get SOME NHL talent on the team with his earliest moves...at least he didn't make any "for the sake of making a deal"-type of move (think signing a meh, 29 or 30-year-old free agent to bad money and term).

Fitz had actual assets to work with from the start of his tenure at least (and multiple high picks to boot once he took over, due to more suckage), but to his credit, he's not only been proactive, the moves he's made have mostly been terrific...and of course, he's shown himself to be excellent at "selling" in two very different ways:

Getting pieces for players than no longer make any sense to keep or are as good as gone (he got a friggin' third-rounder for UFA-to-be Seves!).

Selling players on NJ itself...and in some cases, not squeezing every last penny out of the franchise, for the good of the on-ice product.

 

And of course, this guy can teach a course on proper cap management.  He's been absolutely remarkable in this regard...obviously at some point tough decisions have to be made, but Fitz has put himself in a position where he's not having to make them too soon.