Triumph Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 (edited) 5v5 + 4v4 ES. empty netters are technically ES but aren't. so this wouldn't count 6v5 goals for either. you're missing the point, we've played at a nearly unsustainable clip and are a weak + considering our record. we push a tiny, tiny edge unless our special teams are great. if we played Philly now in a playoff series, I'd say we were a slight favorite, the Pens, we'd be a slight dog, the Sabres would be a coin-toss, and Washington would destroy us. i agree that without paul martin we are not a favorite against anyone with much skill. don't forget that washington is shooting a probably-unsustainable 10% at even strength. no, it isn't. they had a great record last season and finished +10 ES. the Ducks were a +11 ES. not exactly surprising in retrospect now, is it? the series was a coin-toss. holy lord. you can't really believe this, can you? the ducks were -76 in penalty differential, the sharks +60. now somehow the sharks were only +1 in penalty differential in the series as it turned out, but jonas hiller had about a .960 save percentage in that series. that series was not a coin toss. it was closer than it would have appeared at first blush, but san jose was still a favorite. and before i get told that penalty differentials don't exist in the playoffs, both pittsburgh and detroit had significantly more power plays than penalty kills, and they played each other for 7 games. Edited January 17, 2010 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 i agree that without paul martin we are not a favorite against anyone with much skill. don't forget that washington is shooting a probably-unsustainable 10% at even strength. holy lord. you can't really believe this, can you? the ducks were -76 in penalty differential, the sharks +60. now somehow the sharks were only +1 in penalty differential in the series as it turned out, but jonas hiller had about a .960 save percentage in that series. that series was not a coin toss. it was closer than it would have appeared at first blush, but san jose was still a favorite. so, it was an ES-based series and the Ducks won. that disproves it how? ES hockey doesn't mean as much as it did before the lockout, but it still means a damn lot. we're not that great ES. we don't give up any goals, 2.16-2.17 or something like that, but we don't score any either. if we don't have a good PP, we're not going to beat good teams in the playoffs. maybe I should lay off on the first round assertion considering how bad some of the teams on that list are, but good teams, we're going to be in for it. and our GF has been sliding lately, we're around 2.75 when we were chasing 3 before. obviously there's injuries, but there's not alot of offense in the players that are coming back. I just don't like how this team stacks up in a playoff sense. I don't feel like this is a 2003 team, that wasn't particularly sexy and had a garbagetastic PP, and a first line with Grant Marshall, because that 2003 team was dominating at ES and was better than Ottawa was at it. I know it's early to be thinking about the playoffs, but there's not much left in this regular season. and if there is, I'm not particularly sure I want to see it, because we'd have to play pretty damn bad to put any doubt back in the picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils731 Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 So with major injuries this year and taking away an area of the game the Devils have been really strong in the Devils still look like at worst a coin flip against any team but Washington? That doesn't seem so bad to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 So with major injuries this year and taking away an area of the game the Devils have been really strong in the Devils still look like at worst a coin flip against any team but Washington? That doesn't seem so bad to me. which area? we're out of the top 10 in PK and are heading out of the top 10 in PP. this, combined with the grindy ES situation, is why they're playing .500 hockey lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils731 Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 (edited) which area? we're out of the top 10 in PK and are heading out of the top 10 in PP. this, combined with the grindy ES situation, is why they're playing .500 hockey lately. Their penalty differential. You seem to be assuming all bad trends will continue and no good trends will emerge or reassert themselves. Edited January 17, 2010 by Devils731 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 (edited) so, it was an ES-based series and the Ducks won. that disproves it how? ES hockey doesn't mean as much as it did before the lockout, but it still means a damn lot. we're not that great ES. we don't give up any goals, 2.16-2.17 or something like that, but we don't score any either. if we don't have a good PP, we're not going to beat good teams in the playoffs. you're not properly evaluating the series. the odds that the penalty differential would be even is unlikely. to say 'if this happens, it's a coinflip' is ignoring the 'if this happens'. maybe I should lay off on the first round assertion considering how bad some of the teams on that list are, but good teams, we're going to be in for it. maybe this is why winning the division is so important. to me there's 3 good teams in the east, maybe 4 if we count philadelphia. new jersey is one of them. to have to play one of the good teams in the first round would be a disaster. and our GF has been sliding lately, we're around 2.75 when we were chasing 3 before. obviously there's injuries, but there's not alot of offense in the players that are coming back. wow. really? wow. martin, zubrus, and clarkson will all help our shots for/shots against, and i think eventually our goals for. I just don't like how this team stacks up in a playoff sense. I don't feel like this is a 2003 team, that wasn't particularly sexy and had a garbagetastic PP, and a first line with Grant Marshall, because that 2003 team was dominating at ES and was better than Ottawa was at it.I know it's early to be thinking about the playoffs, but there's not much left in this regular season. and if there is, I'm not particularly sure I want to see it, because we'd have to play pretty damn bad to put any doubt back in the picture. obviously the devils are not favorites against pittsburgh or washington, i think that much should be obvious. if the devils can catch some breaks, win the first round, maybe someone else knocks one of those two off and the devils only have to play one to reach the stanley cup finals. no, the devils aren't odds-on favorites for the stanley cup, i don't think i'm really amazing anyone by asserting that. they've had some guys perform better than expected, and they are in that discussion - if they can get some faceoff help and maybe a back-pairing defender, i'll take the team up against anyone and not be a significant underdog, and that's really all you can ask. Edited January 17, 2010 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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