Cycle of Suck

[CarpathianForest]

It appears that most teams go through these cycles. Anyone remember the 06-07 Flyers? I think we're really feeling the affects of the cap starting to come home to roost this season. Hopefully this will only last one season and we'll right the ship. I did some analysis on Capgeek and it looks like a few of the talented teams might run into the same dilemma we're in:

Phil. 9 players taking up 40.75mil Cap Space 8 UFAs

Pitt. 8 Players taking up 44,25 cap space 9 UFAs

Detroit 9 players taking up 35.287mil cap space 7 UFAs

San Jose 8 players taking up 41.29mil cap space 5 UFAs

WSH 5 players taking up 27mil cap space 9 UFAs

Van 8 players taking up 38.98 in cap space 8 UFAs

NJ we have several players taking up 40.79 in cap space and 4 upcoming UFAs, but if you look further you'll notice that for 12-13 we'll have a lot more guys we can release. Many of the heavy contracts are coming off the books in the next two seasons which is more than I can say for any of the above teams that have guys that have just entered into big long term contracts.

[Derlique]

We are not in a bad situation at all regarding the cap. I expect Langs, Arnott and Greene to be gone which is 8 mill. Then Brodeur, Rolston and Sal which is another 13. We're in a fine position cap-wise

[Amberite]

We are not in a bad situation at all regarding the cap. I expect Langs, Arnott and Greene to be gone which is 8 mill. Then Brodeur, Rolston and Sal which is another 13. We're in a fine position cap-wise

Yep. We have so many players coming off the books in the next 1-2 years which are worth MUCH less than what they're making. This team has a great core in Kovy (yea yea), Parise (assuming he stays), Tedenby, Josefson and Zajac. We're literally looking at $20M in cap space freeing up very soon. Make some smart moves and bring in some great young talent, hire a good, but not great $2M goalie, and this team is a powerhouse again very quickly.

[CarpathianForest]

We can all point and laugh after Pittsburgh wins the cup this year. They're not going to have a lot of room to give raises.

[mmajeski06]

I think this year could actually be the best thing to happen to this team. We've been a cycle of mediocrity for the last few seasons. A year like this is the catalyst to make some changes and let some of the older guys go.

While it is unpopular with most fans, as we want change NOW, I am glad Lou hasn't made any boneheaded moves to try to right the ship this season. The best we can hope for is a good draft pick, dumping some of the older guys for some better pics and young talent, and go from there.

[Derlique]

We can all point and laugh after Pittsburgh wins the cup this year. They're not going to have a lot of room to give raises.

They don't really need to give raises. Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury and Martin are all locked up long term

[CarpathianForest]

There are quite a few "supporting" players that they will have to make a decision on and when they're forced to trade Malkin due to cap problems we can pick him up. I think Sid is set to be an FA in a couple of years too. He makes 8.7 mil. If he keeps his production level high like he is, he's going to want more than Ovie who makes 9.5mil.

[Colin226]

I was saying this before we were bad.. The way the NHL is now with the cap, all good teams pretty much do bad for a while and build up high picks before becoming great again.. Pitt, Philly, Chicago, Wash.. Detroit is the only team that seems to win every year without needing to do poorly and build with picks.. This might just be the way it is with the cap

[CarpathianForest]

"Ha! Ha! You guys just won the cup, 2 in 3 years, have one of the greatest players in the history of the NHL just entering his prime, and have almost your entire core still intact! Take that!"

Sounds almost like our team in 02-03

[CarpathianForest]

Cool thing about the upcoming draft is that 9 of 10 of the projected top 10 picks are all players who play positions we need to fill:

Couturier C

Nugent-Hopkins C

Larsson D

Landeskog RW

Murphy D

Armia RW

Rask C

Siemens D

Saad LW

Puempel RW

[devlman]

So, in other words...if you have success in the cap era then you have to suck later on no matter how hard management works. Salary Cap = Communism

[CarpathianForest]

So, in other words...if you have success in the cap era then you have to suck later on no matter how hard management works. Salary Cap = Communism

Not necessarily. I'm not saying that all the listed teams will suck later on but they're probably headed in a direction that may be similar to the one we've had recently where they have a lot of long term deals on pricey players and they're a bit handcuffed when it comes to signing talent that can fill valuable positions. I'm not againt the salary cap one bit.

[Amberite]

So, in other words...if you have success in the cap era then you have to suck later on no matter how hard management works. Salary Cap = Communism

Basically, unless you have amazing management and great luck to get star players without high draft picks (ie, Detroit & Zetterberg). It's just very hard to stay good year after year when you barely have a 1st round draft pick.

[CarpathianForest]

Basically, unless you have amazing management and great luck to get star players without high draft picks (ie, Detroit & Zetterberg). It's just very hard to stay good year after year when you barely have a 1st round draft pick.

Good point. You can sign a lot of free agents but that's going to bite you in the end. See: Brian Rolston or 09-10 Chicago Blackhawks

[Pepperkorn]

Sounds almost like our team in 02-03

what the hell are YOU smoking?

I dont think this is Cap issues coming home to roost. Year by year Lou did what he could. He kept who he could. He could not keep Nidermayer, he coudl not keep Gomez - none of this was due to lack of trying or funds. The guys didn't want to stay. He could not afford to keep Gionta or Rafalski - they had better places to go. He held on to Madden who under performed and probably would not have taken 1 mil to stay a Devil.

Look at the whole picture and those who are old enough remember how it all unfolded at the time. There were just no options. He had money to keep some guys who seemed worth it. I can't even jeer you saying hind-sight is 20/20. There is nothing Lou COULD have done and still not be in this exact same position.

It seems pretty darned clear NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY IN NEW JERSEY! I dont know why not but they do not. Holik Niedermayer and Gomez hurt the teams reputation leaving the way they did. Rafalski, Gio, Madden - that was all pretty understandable.

It does seem like Lou got furious and just went nuts to keep Kovalchuk. But nothign else he's done is nuts. Any contract you find insane at the moment would have been far more insane not to tender... except maybe Rolston who I never wanted to begin with. I guess that alone might have been cause to fire Lemaire

[coldply123]

The crucial element in all this is that all of the teams made some difficult decisions and did significant housecleaning in that 1-2 yr period. Do we have faith that Lou and ownership will make the hard calls or rather the right moves. I don't.

It means maximizing your draft picks this year by trading off a bunch of vets, drafting well, making some trades. I just don't see it in Lou anymore to have the right vision and dealmaking ability going forward, and as long as Brodeur is on the team next year I doubt we will do what needs to be done.

[CarpathianForest]

what the hell are YOU smoking?

I dont think this is Cap issues coming home to roost. Year by year Lou did what he could. He kept who he could. He could not keep Nidermayer, he coudl not keep Gomez - none of this was due to lack of trying or funds. The guys didn't want to stay. He could not afford to keep Gionta or Rafalski - they had better places to go. He held on to Madden who under performed and probably would not have taken 1 mil to stay a Devil.

Look at the whole picture and those who are old enough remember how it all unfolded at the time. There were just no options. He had money to keep some guys who seemed worth it. I can't even jeer you saying hind-sight is 20/20. There is nothing Lou COULD have done and still not be in this exact same position.

It seems pretty darned clear NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY IN NEW JERSEY! I dont know why not but they do not. Holik Niedermayer and Gomez hurt the teams reputation leaving the way they did. Rafalski, Gio, Madden - that was all pretty understandable.

It does seem like Lou got furious and just went nuts to keep Kovalchuk. But nothign else he's done is nuts. Any contract you find insane at the moment would have been far more insane not to tender... except maybe Rolston who I never wanted to begin with. I guess that alone might have been cause to fire Lemaire

Hey, I'm just trying to help everyone keep their head up by indicating this thing can be cyclical. It's happening to us now, it'll probably happen to these top teams in the upcoming years.

I never brought up anything remarking about players not wanting to play here. I pretty much know that. And even though you knocked me I still like your long diatribes.

[Pepperkorn]

MAN yu guys kill me. I feel like Lou was forced to pay a bunch of middling players above their worth just to keep a known quantity. No one new and improved has EVER been there -- unless Lou did something INSANE like find some wackoff super star and throw money at hi to see if THAT solved anything - which is what the ENTIRE board has CONTINUAL BEEN ADVOCATING since 2002.

I despair of you all.

[coldply123]

MAN yu guys kill me. I feel like Lou was forced to pay a bunch of middling players above their worth just to keep a known quantity. No one new and improved has EVER been there -- unless Lou did something INSANE like find some wackoff super star and throw money at hi to see if THAT solved anything - which is what the ENTIRE board has CONTINUAL BEEN ADVOCATING since 2002.

I despair of you all.

Not me. My problem is that I think Lou has jumped the shark, and its been going on for awhile. You can't keep blaming coaches. All the greats lose their fastball eventually, even executives. Lou's track record since the 2003 Cup has been pretty bad. I don't want people giving him credit for Parise, because Lou even himself admits he defers to his scouting guys, specifically Conte.

And I give Lou a pass on Kovalchuk because I do think that was driven by Vanderbeek. I just don't have faith in Lou to recognize that the "run" is over and it's time to reload and renovate the team going forward. Lou's moves, especially with coaches and free agents have become a lather, rinse, repeat mentality. I think it's time to for Lou to step off into the sunset with nothing else to prove.

[Pepperkorn]

Hey, I'm just trying to help everyone keep their head up by indicating this thing can be cyclical. It's happening to us now, it'll probably happen to these top teams in the upcoming years.

I never brought up anything remarking about players not wanting to play here. I pretty much know that. And even though you knocked me I still like your long diatribes.

Thank you CF. I like this thread but I dont like the conclussions everyone is coming to. They seem myopic. but the smokin' comment -- I was just talking about your 2002-03 team comment. Grant Marshall, Mike Rupp, long-in-the-tooth Jimmy McKenzie, Turner Stevenson -- real winners there.

But see they WERE - true, because they were in the right place at the right time and yet then went and had this flippin' attitude afterward anyhow....

and then the more talented teams AFTER --- they just collapsed in the playoffs. Had no clue no idea how to handle anything. Niedermayer as a Devil included. They just skate in a paralysis. The real question is what is the cause of that? Lou has softened and paid and changed things up trusted his players -- and what good has any of it been? You all just say he's lost his touch, his mind his balls --- I just feel like you all judge after the fact.

The question is what was it that made Niedermayer NOT able to act to make NJ a better team? Just history? That could be. I could see very clearly why Gionta Rafalski Madden were done here. I don;t know -- I guess I feel like chalking it up to one of those things is pretty much all you can do -- but I HATE to just blame it all on cycles when the team has been so bad for so long - even if they appeared to be in the hunt, we all knew they were going no where come April.

[Pepperkorn]

Not me. My problem is that I think Lou has jumped the shark, and its been going on for awhile. You can't keep blaming coaches. All the greats lose their fastball eventually, even executives. Lou's track record since the 2003 Cup has been pretty bad. I don't want people giving him credit for Parise, because Lou even himself admits he defers to his scouting guys, specifically Conte.

And I give Lou a pass on Kovalchuk because I do think that was driven by Vanderbeek. I just don't have faith in Lou to recognize that the "run" is over and it's time to reload and renovate the team going forward. Lou's moves, especially with coaches and free agents have become a lather, rinse, repeat mentality. I think it's time to for Lou to step off into the sunset with nothing else to prove.

Well then I think you dont like Devils hockey -- who's goingto take his place? Who is going to be the GM you want in there? Who do you knwo who knows hockey the way Lou does? Or is Sather or even Brian Murray fine by you? Who is better?

but more specifically what is it that Lou is doing incorrectly? He forced himself into this corner - how? and who's doing it? Players, agents GMs? the entire NHL? I feel Lou's hands are tied and in the end it's true he tied them all bby his lonesome... but HOW? What combination was so lethal? Seriously - if you want to go down this road you have to go DOWN it! You have to know why you made a choice so history can't repeat itself. It' not merely insanity or losing the touch -- it's fvcking yourself royally -- so HOW HOW was that done?

I close this door that's it -- we're going to the Hamptons! Let's get NUTS!

Edited December 13, 2010 by Pepperkorn

[Amberite]

PK, I don't agree with your conclusion that noone wants to play in NJ. A lot of players have taken discounts to stay here, but just like with any team, it isn't perfect for everyone. Gomez was a douche from day 1, and it's obvious the NJ style did not fit him. He wanted to play on broadway and he got it. Nieds left to play with his brother. If you can believe the stories about Rafalski, it seems more a case of Lou pushing him out than him wanting to leave. Same with Martin.

I think Lou has made plenty of bad decision since the lockout. He has relied very heavily on past successes instead of taking more risks and bringing in players which he is less familiar with. This has caused the team to get much older and slower, which is the root of the problem the last few seasons, and is what has really bit us in the ass this season. This team is just OLD. Most of our players who SHOULD be good are in their mid to late 30s, and that's Lou's fault for not realizing that it's dangerous to have so much of your success relying on players who are in the twilight of their careers. Other players - like Clarkson - have ridiculous contracts which Lou hands out like candy, with NMC's to boot.

Edited December 13, 2010 by Amberite

[Triumph]

Not me. My problem is that I think Lou has jumped the shark, and its been going on for awhile. You can't keep blaming coaches. All the greats lose their fastball eventually, even executives. Lou's track record since the 2003 Cup has been pretty bad. I don't want people giving him credit for Parise, because Lou even himself admits he defers to his scouting guys, specifically Conte.

And I give Lou a pass on Kovalchuk because I do think that was driven by Vanderbeek. I just don't have faith in Lou to recognize that the "run" is over and it's time to reload and renovate the team going forward. Lou's moves, especially with coaches and free agents have become a lather, rinse, repeat mentality. I think it's time to for Lou to step off into the sunset with nothing else to prove.

Lou hasn't made a big player for player trade in a long time. I mean a deal where you trade a player for another player who is not a rental. The last deals like this were the Arnott and Sykora deals of 2002.

Lou hasn't 'jumped the shark' (i hate this phrase with the fire of a thousand suns). What he's done is tried to build a winner every year. He's tried to do it despite some of his best pieces moving on, and some of his better pieces getting older. He's done it despite having drafts misfire on him. If you're going to not give him credit for good drafts, you also can't blame him for bad drafts. Truth is, the Devils hit a lull wrt drafting. They had a bad 2001, a bad 2002, they missed on everything besides Parise in 03, and they missed on everything besides Zajac in 04. 2005-2007 aren't looking very good either, besides what's been traded away.

Some of the inefficiencies Lou exploited have gone away. The league as a whole is much more forgiving of smaller players than it was pre-lockout. Lou stole Sykora and Parise because people didn't want to risk taking them. Ditto Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez. This would just not happen in today's NHL, imo - teams are smarter about that.

Lou has also unfortunately been saddled with Martin Brodeur and the failed belief that Brodeur is a valuable piece of the team. He's not, and that's also pre-lockout thinking. Unfortunately there's nothing to be done about this until Brodeur's contract ends. Hopefully he doesn't make the same mistake again. In fairness to Lou, it's a mistake that a lot of teams have made.

Just because these things are all true doesn't mean Lou has to go.

[Pepperkorn]

I see your point Amberite. But at the time I saw no moves he could have made. I probably would have done even less than he did.

It's depressing in any event!

[Triumph]

PK, I don't agree with your conclusion that noone wants to play in NJ. A lot of players have taken discounts to stay here, but just like with any team, it isn't perfect for everyone. Gomez was a douche from day 1, and it's obvious the NJ style did not fit him. He wanted to play on broadway and he got it. Nieds left to play with his brother. If you can believe the stories about Rafalski, it seems more a case of Lou pushing him out than him wanting to leave. Same with Martin.

I think Lou has made plenty of bad decision since the lockout. He has relied very heavily on past successes instead of taking more risks and bringing in players which he is less familiar with. This has caused the team to get much older and slower, which is the root of the problem the last few seasons, and is what has really bit us in the ass this season. This team is just OLD. Most of our players who SHOULD be good are in their mid to late 30s, and that's Lou's fault for not realizing that it's dangerous to have so much of your success relying on players who are in the twilight of their careers. Other players - like Clarkson - have ridiculous contracts which Lou hands out like candy, with NMC's to boot.

it's what comes with trying to win every year. you want to keep colin white and pay him undermarket? well okay, then he has to get 6 years. you want dainius zubrus and you're totally lost at center without him and handzus just got 4 years and 16 million? well, he needs 6 years. elias wants to go to chicago or the rangers coming off an amazing performance? 7 years.

lou has always tried to keep the team together by keeping players signed for a year past what is good judgment. that is coming back on him in a big way here.