New York Mets 2016-2017 Offseason Thread

['7']

On 3/25/2017 at 8:02 AM, NJDevs4978 said:

In Wheeler's case it doesn't matter cause they still have Gsellman and Lugo to replace him (in a way it is great and in a way it's a shame all three of those guys could pitch in a big league rotation - though only the latter two might have the durability to do do - but when healthy there's only room for one).  In Harvey's case it matters because he is going to have to pitch to a 5+ ERA for a LONG time before they even consider yanking him from the rotation.

But yeah between the Devils and the Jets' current state I'm definitely looking forward to the Mets.  It'll be interesting to see how the NL East shakes out - Philly, Atlanta and Miami are all capable of getting into the 80+ win range if things break right but they can't all do it.  The Nats have the closer/bullpen issue and Scherzer's pretty much missing all of ST as far as I can tell.  Their lineup's obviously good and their top five in the rotation is slightly undersold but if anything at all happens to their rotation (as eyes turn to Strausberg) they have real issues there.  

I think Atlanta may hit 80, their offense is going to be annoying to deal with. But I still think their pitching stinks and they can be on the losing end of a lot of 10-7 games. Philly I think will be pretty terrible. Top to bottom they still don't impress me. They also have a lot of high K guys in that lineup that our pitching staff will feast on when we see them. We have really dominated the heck out of Philadelphia lately, especially at Citi South (32-14 since 2012)

Marlins are solid everywhere except SP. Of course would it surprise anybody if Stanton misses his usual chunk of time? Prado is solid and pesky but he's getting a bit older now too. And of course Dee Gordon is like a 3-4 lock every times he sees the Mets (good luck d'Arnaud) Their bullpen shapes up to be outstanding. But if they end up with a bottom 5 or bottom 10 rotation it is tough seeing the, cracking 80.

[NJDevs4978]

1 hour ago, '7' said:

It is getting to be now or never for Montero. He's 26, Matz is having some elbow tenderness. Montero has earned a shot and we have to see what we have with him.

This Matz thing I hope is not serious. But it just goes to show how important pitching is. How critical it is to have that depth. I just hope we can have at least once through the rotation this year where we can throw Thor-deGrom-Harvey-Matz-Wheeler

I think everyone including Sandy's getting tired of Matz's constant fragility.  I mean it's not Wheeler-bad but it's bad enough to be a factor all the time.  At least they probably will have both Gsellman and Lugo start the season in the rotation at this point.

Montero's an interesting case, I thought he used up his nine lives long ago and he wasn't even that impressive last year when he was up, but maybe something's actually clicked this Spring.  They've certainly given him enough chances including giving away Ynoa (who's been having a good Spring for the O's).

Edited March 26, 2017 by NJDevs4978

['7']

4 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

I think everyone including Sandy's getting tired of Matz's constant fragility.  I mean it's not Wheeler-bad but it's bad enough to be a factor all the time.  At least they probably will have both Gsellman and Lugo start the season in the rotation at this point.

Montero's an interesting case, I thought he used up his nine lives long ago and he wasn't even that impressive last year when he was up, but maybe something's actually clicked this Spring.  They've certainly given him enough chances including giving away Ynoa (who's been having a good Spring for the O's).

Yea I was shocked at Ynoa's performance. I mean he didn't impress my one bit in the limited action in the bigs. Looked like batting practice from day 1 with him after he looked pretty decent in AAA in a tough environment. 

If he gets it together he is a groundball pitcher which is what you want in the AL East.

Lagares also shelved now with an oblique strain. Another one never healthy, would not shock me if he started the season on the DL, though that is still 8 days away.

Edited March 26, 2017 by '7'

[NJDevs4978]

Yeah Lagares and Nimmo's injuries basically are going to force them to take Conforto north.  I hope for his sake Bruce doesn't get off to a bad start or the howling to replace him with Conforto's going to get to deafening levels.  Not that I wouldn't rather have Conforto out there, but clearly we're gonna have to deal with another year of Bruce cause we overestimated his trade market by picking up his option (as in assuming he HAD one).

['7']

16 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Yeah Lagares and Nimmo's injuries basically are going to force them to take Conforto north.  I hope for his sake Bruce doesn't get off to a bad start or the howling to replace him with Conforto's going to get to deafening levels.  Not that I wouldn't rather have Conforto out there, but clearly we're gonna have to deal with another year of Bruce cause we overestimated his trade market by picking up his option (as in assuming he HAD one).

And while it is only Spring Training, Bruce is hitting about .211 while Conforto is at .340 just crushing the ball all over the place. I kind of just see him as that kind of player who doesn't have the makeup to succeed in NYC.

If this team ends up doing anything, Jay Bruce will be our 1986 George Foster. Carry him for as long as we can, and then he's gone. Not that the situation would end as messily as foster, but he won't be with us once we finally reach the promised land.

['7']

Harvey with a good outing yesterday. Cranked it up to 97 as well. Very encouraging.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

19 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

I think everyone including Sandy's getting tired of Matz's constant fragility.  I mean it's not Wheeler-bad but it's bad enough to be a factor all the time.  At least they probably will have both Gsellman and Lugo start the season in the rotation at this point.

Montero's an interesting case, I thought he used up his nine lives long ago and he wasn't even that impressive last year when he was up, but maybe something's actually clicked this Spring.  They've certainly given him enough chances including giving away Ynoa (who's been having a good Spring for the O's).

Just read Sandy's and Terry's quotes, and yeah, sounds like they're starting to get flustered with Matz being so damned fragile (and I'm sure Sandy and Terry are just fed up with the constant injuries to the starting staff in general).  But as long as there's other options and Matz continues to be relatively inexpensive, hard to imagine that they won't deal with it for at least a couple more seasons, and hope he suddenly stops getting hurt. 

re:  Montero, we all know that being a (cheap) Met means you get all the chances in the world, season after season after season.  That mentality might actually wind up working out this time, but I still find it impossible to get excited about anything Montero does.  This really should be his last and final season to stick here...hopefully, at the very least, he impresses enough this season to have more than "throw-in" value when Sandy tries to fortify this team come deadline day. 

Speaking of injuries...wow is Lagares just a fvcking disaster.  This stiff has $6.5 million coming to him next season, and $9.5 million the following year.  One of those gambles where you hope the guy will be underpaid by the time those later seasons roll around, but sadly it looks like it's definitely going the other way. 

18 hours ago, '7' said:

And while it is only Spring Training, Bruce is hitting about .211 while Conforto is at .340 just crushing the ball all over the place. I kind of just see him as that kind of player who doesn't have the makeup to succeed in NYC.

If this team ends up doing anything, Jay Bruce will be our 1986 George Foster. Carry him for as long as we can, and then he's gone. Not that the situation would end as messily as foster, but he won't be with us once we finally reach the promised land.

Bruce sucks.  Terrible move by a GM who's supposed to be into metrics and doing his homework (I'll always think Bruce was a "gotta do something" move, and I think Sandy just didn't think much of Herrera anymore, so he went for it).  But we know what kind of hitter Sandy keeps bringing here (Bruce fits the bill perfectly) and I've beat that horse to death too many times. 

29 minutes ago, '7' said:

Harvey with a good outing yesterday. Cranked it up to 97 as well. Very encouraging.

Harvey had too many one-start teases last season.  Hopefully this outing is a sign of better days, but it won't surprise me if the Harvey of 2016 is what we see come the regular season. 

 

One more week.  Hard to believe.  I'm still pretty optimistic, but this team feels like a real wild-card right now.  Just hope that they don't bury themselves with a slow start. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Wheeler with five scoreless today (2 hits and 2 BB, 3 K) against the Marlins.  Lugo allowed 8 hits and 3 HR in his start today against the Nats.  Wonder if one game changes anything, as far as the current depth projects, though Wheeler is supposed to be sticking around for extended spring (which makes sense no matter what he did today).  Still think Gsellman or Lugo should get a shot at the 5th turn...though of course if Matz is shelved, they both might be in the April rotation. 

['7']

Lagares had an MRI on his oblique strain which came up clean. Lagares says he feels almost 100%. So good news there.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

4 minutes ago, '7' said:

Lagares had an MRI on his oblique strain which came up clean. Lagares says he feels almost 100%. So good news there.

Mets gotta hope he has a good year, then trade him off that.  This team is still too cost-conscious to carry $16 million over 2018 and 2019 for a guy who might turn out to be a defensive specialist, and not much more. 

['7']

2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Mets gotta hope he has a good year, then trade him off that.  This team is still too cost-conscious to carry $16 million over 2018 and 2019 for a guy who might turn out to be a defensive specialist, and not much more. 

And who will be 29 next year. His bat never developed and you can find cheap all glove, no bat outfielders everywhere.

Would've been nice to slide him in for 2018 if Grandy calls it a career after this season but, Lagares can't be trusted to produce offensively or even stay on the field for a full season.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

34 minutes ago, '7' said:

And who will be 29 next year. His bat never developed and you can find cheap all glove, no bat outfielders everywhere.

Would've been nice to slide him in for 2018 if Grandy calls it a career after this season but, Lagares can't be trusted to produce offensively or even stay on the field for a full season.

He's also too pricey to be a throw-in in any deal, unless the Mets are taking an iffy contract back...I'm thinking maybe you can get an pricey meh-ish middle reliever for him at this point.  I understood the gamble at the time with the contract though.  Those deal CAN work out for teams, to the point where a player can even become pissed when he's suddenly severely underpaid; it just went horribly wrong this time.  Lagares is now an injury-prone weak-stick who's also become somewhat erratic in the field.  Just very hard to get excited about now. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Gsellman with one big mistake pitch (a 3-run homer), but seems to be pretty good otherwise.  Goes 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Spring numbers including today's IP so far:  23.1 IP, 20 H, 6 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 15 K.  Really nice to have someone outside of the can't-stay-healthies.  Hope he can bring this back up north. 

Edited March 28, 2017 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Two more spring games left.  Hard to believe. 

['7']

1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Two more spring games left.  Hard to believe. 

You know normally it seems ST drags on forever...this year is seems like it flew by a lot faster than usual. Nothing really can compare though to the football pre season which seems like it take 6 months.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

15 hours ago, '7' said:

You know normally it seems ST drags on forever...this year is seems like it flew by a lot faster than usual. Nothing really can compare though to the football pre season which seems like it take 6 months.

Yeah NFL preseason can seem long...but MLB's preseason is pretty damned long too...this one went quick though, until the last week or so.  Now it's like "C'mon, let's just GO already!"

['7']

2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Yeah NFL preseason can seem long...but MLB's preseason is pretty damned long too...this one went quick though, until the last week or so.  Now it's like "C'mon, let's just GO already!"

One thing I'm already mentally preparing for a slow starts from some of the vets at the plate. I'm sort of conditioned now to not panic if Grandy is sitting at .150 two weeks in. Sometimes it takes them a bit longer to get the motor going on these 40 degree April nights.

['7']

15 game slap on the wrist for Familia.

[NJDevs4978]

I get that nobody other than Jeyrus and his wife know what happened that night or any other night and that she 'passionately' defended him so I shouldn't be judgemental but this still doesn't pass the smell test for me. I should celebrate he's only out 15 games but I'd feel dirty doing so, this feels like he got a DL stint rather than a suspension.

['7']

3 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

I get that nobody other than Jeyrus and his wife know what happened that night or any other night and that she 'passionately' defended him so I shouldn't be judgemental but this still doesn't pass the smell test for me. I should celebrate he's only out 15 games but I'd feel dirty doing so, this feels like he got a DL stint rather than a suspension.

And for a closer 15 games is really not even 15 games. The actual games where we'll truly miss the service that he provides will be less. As a Mets fan if Scherzer or Harper did something like this and got 15 I would be irritated.

[NJDevs4978]

Apparently he only got 15 cause there was no evidence that he actually hit his wife, and the fact he also sought out counseling on his own. Hopefully THAT is a good indicator going forward at least.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 hour ago, NJDevs4978 said:

I get that nobody other than Jeyrus and his wife know what happened that night or any other night and that she 'passionately' defended him so I shouldn't be judgemental but this still doesn't pass the smell test for me. I should celebrate he's only out 15 games but I'd feel dirty doing so, this feels like he got a DL stint rather than a suspension.

I've said this before, but the problem with so many of these cases is that no one is 100% sure of exactly what happened...the kneejerk reaction is always "man hit woman, man very bad".  The woman's role in what took place is often completely unknown and/or minimalized...I'm not implying "Well that bitch probably had it coming!" or anything like that...just that whenever there's an incident where there's physicality on both sides, with any number of events (such as verbal abuse) playing a role into the physicality ultimately rearing its ugly head, it's usually the man that is instantly guilty until proven innocent, with the woman just as instantly seen as a helpless victim, well before any details come out. 

All this being said, I really hope for both Jeurys AND his wife, that this was one unfortunate isolated incident...because if it happens again, everyone involved will look bad and get criticized: 

MLB, for not doing enough (and I'm sure many are wondering "Familia should have gotten 30!", and won't care about the shades of gray that led to him getting half that many games)

The Mets, for being a enabling "haven" for women-beaters

Familia and his wife...speculation will run rampant as to many times incidents between them have actually occurred...and that speculation will lead to statements like "See, typical battered wife, defending her hubby no matter what", etc. 

Hopefully this is the end of anything like this for Familia. 

Edited March 29, 2017 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Montero's final spring numbers (unless he gets one more outing in the game against Army): 

20.1 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB (4 of those came in one game), 23 K, 1.77 ERA

Hey, at least it's something...which was a lot more than I ever could have expected from him.  Fair to note that his 2015 spring numbers were pretty encouraging too.  But considering that he was back in AA for a while last season...if the Mets were to get anything productive out of him in the majors, that would truly be a bonus and then some. 

['7']

18 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Montero's final spring numbers (unless he gets one more outing in the game against Army): 

20.1 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB (4 of those came in one game), 23 K, 1.77 ERA

Hey, at least it's something...which was a lot more than I ever could have expected from him.  Fair to note that his 2015 spring numbers were pretty encouraging too.  But considering that he was back in AA for a while last season...if the Mets were to get anything productive out of him in the majors, that would truly be a bonus and then some. 

Because this is likely his last shot as a Met I would go ahead and give him a long long look this time around. I sure hope he has figured things out for real. The baseball landscape is littered with Montero type late bloomers who are really just AAAA players and bouce around up and down for years. Very soon this will no longer be the minors or sleepy Spring Training games. He's going to have to deal with good to great hitters who make adjustments, real pressure situations, playing in NY

Surprise Surprise. Matz threw Mon/Tues and is still feeling pain and tenderness in his elbow. MRI coming soon. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

12 minutes ago, '7' said:

Because this is likely his last shot as a Met I would go ahead and give him a long long look this time around. I sure hope he has figured things out for real. The baseball landscape is littered with Montero type late bloomers who are really just AAAA players and bouce around up and down for years. Very soon this will no longer be the minors or sleepy Spring Training games. He's going to have to deal with good to great hitters who make adjustments, real pressure situations, playing in NY

Surprise Surprise. Matz threw Mon/Tues and is still feeling pain and tenderness in his elbow. MRI coming soon. 

I'd actually give him a longer look for that reason as well:  now or never Rafael...either produce at the major league level, or we move on.  More Vegas time is not likely to make much difference as to his major league future...as it is, it looks like his future as a Met will be as a reliever, though God knows it won't come as any shock if injuries to the current rotation open up a spot for him. 

I think the organization is really getting frustrated with Matz at this point.  Looks like the guy simply isn't physically able to being able to get through a major-league season.  But by all means "braintrusts", keep forcing these innings limits that are making NO DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER on these young arms.  Keep holding them to less than six innings per start in the minors.  All the babying in the world hasn't done a thing.