Why I won't "blame the players"

[DevilNurn]

I don't like to blame it on the coach, because I don't think it's fully JMac's fault. I also don't think it's fully Lou/Vanderbeek's faults, because they just did what they felt was best for the team.

But I don't understand how you can really blame the players we have. They just said it on Versus tonight, one year ago we were 1st place in the league in points. Let's see the differences in our rosters:

I've broken it down, and I have the two rosters of this year 12/21/10 and last year, 12/21/09 (red boxes denote injuries and/or scratches). In the second column, I roughly marked whether the roster spot is better (>), worse (<), or equal (=) to last year's team, with the difference marked in the third column. The total is at the bottom.

Now I know this is debatable, but what I did was assign either a +1, a -1, or a 0 to each roster spot. Now it's not an exact science, because not all players are created equal. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk is well beyond better than Jay Pandolfo, but for the sake of comparing the two rosters, he's a +1. Players that are the same got compared to themselves. Sometimes that's different (Greene 09 > Greene 10, Pelley 09 < Pelley 10), but it's often the same (Langenbrunner, Elias).

Now, according to my calculation, which is obviously not scientific or exact, the rosters are equal. And I think anyone who saw the roster at the beginning of this year would have said that the roster for this year is better, clearly, due to Kovalchuk, etc. Now I've gotten past the point where I think it's worth pissing and moaning about how bad the team is, so i'll try and break it down into what I think the reasons for the fall have been:

Potential Reasons:

• Parise's injury
  
• coaching change - Lemaire => MacLean
  
• chemistry - upset by Kovalchuk trade, among other FA acquisitions and age as a team
  
• defensive inexperience - with Corrente and Fayne getting big-time minutes, not to mention Greene, it's clear our D has less experience
  
• age - the older players are older, simple enough. Rolston, Langenbrunner, Elias, Brodeur are losing it
  
• Koval-drama - no doubt all the crap this offseason hurt the team
  

Now I think a lot of these things can be linked to one another, and there's no definitive answer. But what I can't figure out is what caused a wholesale difference between this year's team. This team finished with 103 points last year, and we're currently on pace to finish with 53, nearly half last year's total. With a near-equal roster, or even slightly better, what's the answer here.

My reasons:

• Parise's injury - I think Parise's injury is huge for the team. He is the workhorse. He is the motivator. He's the reason our top line is our top line. He brings out the best in Langenbrunner and Zajac. He's a captain in spirit and a captain on the scoresheet. Obviously there's nothing we can do about it, but I think it's seriously downplayed in our discussions of why this team is so bad.
  
• chemistry - I think this is gigantic, and it's the reason why we were upset when Lemaire juggled the lines, but when JMac does it we don't even notice. It's because last year the team worked together, and this year, they have no idea.
  
• coaching change - Lemaire to MacLean has been devastating. We went from a coach with a confused offensive-defensive system to a coach with no system. I think it's telling that Oates is able to get the PP and PK and faceoffs to work, but MacLean can't get anything to work.
  

Now, you may not agree, but I think those are the most significant differences between our 53-point team and last year's 103-point team. I'll never understand why we've fallen so far, but this is my way of reasoning it out. I think that Lemaire had a much better grasp on how to handle a team, and why I'm disappointed (for the first time since his "retirement") that he's gone. I think MacLean got lucky last year with Albany and it's too bad Lamoriello apparently has taken his finger off the coach trigger this season. I think it sucks to lose Parise long term--who doesn't?--but I think it's making it crystal-clear that he needs to be re-signed long-term, and it is more dire than any other FA of ours over the last 10 years (bigger than Nieds, Rafalski, Martin, Gionta, etc.). I hope Lou recognizes this and re-signs him either this year or next year, because it probably be the most important thing he does for this team.

I don't believe in tanking and I think this team should stick it out to the end. I don't think we'll end up with 53 points at the end of the year, but I think the playoffs are beyond the realm of possibility. I also don't believe "being in 9th is worse than being in 15th", because I think it would be much better to be closer to the playoffs than gamble on a slightly higher pick (keep in mind we don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick so we'd really only be tanking for a 1st). I think if we get closer to the deadline and it's still this way, we should have a firesale for picks, but that doesn't come until February at the earliest.

If anyone has any thoughts on this, feel free to share. Sorry if this is a huge dump of obvious information, and sorry about the post length, but this is my way of venting.

[sundstrom]

i appreciate the work but it's more than just the players. the -1 on parise should be a -10. zajac is not contributing offensively anything like last year. and tallinder should really be a minus to martin. but past that, you've got of team of players that nobody knows what to do or how to play with their teammates. defensemen can't pass and we can't enter the offensive zone with any cohesion.

[devilsrule33]

Sorry DevilNurn, but are you watching this team? I am going to repeat myself here, but this team finished the season last year 21-23-5 including the playoffs. That is with Parise for all the games and Martin for a good portion. You take away Parise and Martin from that team over the last 49 games and that team isn't all that much better than this one. And that is with the great Jacques Lemaire coaching too.

How can you just say MacLean got lucky last year with Albany? If you are watching this team, it is at a point that goes way beyond coaching. This team is almost historically bad. They fvcking suck. Coaches in hockey don't make that much of a difference. You also have to consider another year added to a load of veteran players. Also the $4 million man himself (Zajac) has not shown that he is worth a lick offensively without his chum Parise.

You don't have to blame players, but you should. This sh!t has happened before. The 2007 Senators made the Stanley Cup Finals. They had the greatest start to an NHL season ever in 2008, and then something happened, and they have never been more than a .500 team in 2 and a half years since.

As for some other players. Rolston and Clarkson are playing like borderline NHL players. Langenbrunner looks finished. Andy Greene went from all-star calibre to awful. And he was huge in Martin's absense last year. Again, we ave not seen one healthy game from Zach Parise all year.

Seriously, how can you not blame Lou at all for this mess? You really think a friggen NHL coach is that important that they can turn a top team into a disaster. I know it might be hard for you to put the blame on anyone else, but you should. The coach isn't helping, but he isn't hurting them that much either.

[DevilNurn]

i appreciate the work but it's more than just the players. the -1 on parise should be a -10. zajac is not contributing offensively anything like last year. and tallinder should really be a minus to martin. but past that, you've got of team of players that nobody knows what to do or how to play with their teammates. defensemen can't pass and we can't enter the offensive zone with any cohesion.

I know, the numbers don't work past the first paragraph or so of my explanation, hence the later bits.

But yeah, there's a huge problem with our defensive passing and our inability to break into the offensive zone. The team is, in a word, predictable.

Sorry DevilNurn, but are you watching this team? I am going to repeat myself here, but this team finished the season last year 21-23-5 including the playoffs. That is with Parise for all the games and Martin for a good portion. You take away Parise and Martin from that team over the last 49 games and that team isn't all that much better than this one. And that is with the great Jacques Lemaire coaching too.

How can you just say MacLean got lucky last year with Albany? If you are watching this team, it is at a point that goes way beyond coaching. This team is almost historically bad. They fvcking suck. Coaches in hockey don't make that much of a difference. You also have to consider another year added to a load of veteran players. Also the $4 million man himself (Zajac) has not shown that he is worth a lick offensively without his chum Parise.

You don't have to blame players, but you should. This sh!t has happened before. The 2007 Senators made the Stanley Cup Finals. They had the greatest start to an NHL season ever in 2008, and then something happened, and they have never been more than a .500 team in 2 and a half years since.

As for some other players. Rolston and Clarkson are playing like borderline NHL players. Langenbrunner looks finished. Andy Greene went from all-star calibre to awful. And he was huge in Martin's absense last year. Again, we ave not seen one healthy game from Zach Parise all year.

Seriously, how can you not blame Lou at all for this mess? You really think a friggen NHL coach is that important that they can turn a top team into a disaster. I know it might be hard for you to put the blame on anyone else, but you should. The coach isn't helping, but he isn't hurting them that much either.

1) Yes I'm watching. In fact I've watched every game this season just about. And I know they did awfully second half of 09-10. But what I'm trying to figure out is what went right for us to go 27-4-2 for the first half. I know it wasn't all the rest of the league being "soft" or whatever. 27-4-2 happens "by accident" as much as 9-22-2 happens this year.

2) Do you really think this extra year of age on Rolston, Clarkson, Langenbrunner, Greene, etc. is the difference between 27-4-2 and 9-22-2? I acknowledge Parise is a huge part of this team but really, Rolston isn't that much worse, Langs is nearly the same. Clarkson is markably worse as it Greene, but in terms of huge minuses that about does it.

3) I know Lou is partially to blame, I guess I didn't really make that point at all. But I only blame him for not acting at all during the season. I don't blame him for anything pre-season. Because getting Kovalchuk was not wrong to me, getting Arnott wasn't, getting Tallinder wasn't, getting Volchenkov wasn't, getting Mair wasn't. Hedberg was expensive but okay. I just blame him for flailing and not doing something about it. Do whatever in your power as a GM. That is, change coaches, make trades, have a PLAN. Don't just "waive Rolston" and hope something occurs.

4) It's hard to explain how I feel. Because what I mean by not blaming the players is I don't blame individual players, Kovalchuk included. I blame the players as a collective unit, sure. And their lack of chemistry, and leadership. But I don't think you can just say "oh everyone on the team had a bad year, so it was a bad year". And I would contend a coach has more to do with that than you're giving credit for. But I don't think there's a single person in that locker room that thinks John MacLean can do anything at this point in the season to convince anyone he's an caliber coach.

I really think though that the power play working and faceoffs working prove that this group can be coached (as does the 27-4-2 mark last fall), and it proves that they're not being coached right. If you watch the games, you see a complete lack of creativity in their game. It causes their defensive passes to be picked off, and their zone-entering to be predictable and breakable. And when all four lines are having the same issue, that's when I point my finger at the coach.

[devilsrule33]

Well the Clarkson contract was awful. He looked awful last season besides the first 10 games and has stopped doing everything that once made him a splid player in this league. Rolston is probabably a bit worse as every year goes by, but his play is magnified when the team is losing and Parise is out. He hasn't lived up to half his salary, but you tend to let it slide when you win like we have in the past.. Langenbrunner is a lot worse. I am not sure how you can deny that.

The first half of 2009-2010 was ridiculous, by while you are trying to figure out how well they played then compared to the second half and now, try and figure out how they played so amazingly without Brodeur in 2008-2009, and with him for the first 6-8 games he was back before things went crashing down...down the stretch. This team couldn't lose with Scott Clemmensen in net, and it wasn't because of Clemmy either. This team was in a zone defensively, and just like that it ended.

I think you also have to realize that Marty Brodeur has been awful. You could probably throw in 75% of the goalies in the league, and this team isn't any worse. They are probably better with half the goalies in the NHL. I mean we saw Hedberg look pretty damn good for a 5 game stretch.

I personally think that if Lemaire is coaching this team still, they aren't much better. I think MacLean has done a crummy job, but I definitely don't think he can't be a successful coach in this league. This is just a nightmare situation for a 1st year coach who is friends with or buddies with the team and played with a few of these guys. This is a very old team. John MacLean shouldn't have to go Boudreau on them to wake these guys up. And they know it too. But they have no friggen answers themselves. And the reality is what can they do. Brian Rolston is Brian Rolston. David Clarkson is Clarkson. Nothing a coach is going to do that can change that.

MacLean unfortunately is done. He has a look on his face every game like he doesn't know wtf happened. He is stuck at a loss for words. He has mentally checked out at this point, and part of me can't blame him. He got dealt a sh!tty hand, and not many rookie coaches could win it.

[BlueSkirt]

The players have been at it since they were like 5-6 years old & have consistently shown they were better athletes than other hockey players for all of their lives.

Our coach is only in his second year as a head. He's had 4 months (a full camp & three months) to figure out how/when to use his players and has not gotten a handle.

We might've still lost a lot of games this year with any coach....but we're getting smoked out there...7-1, 5-1, 4-1.

Mac can't even get them to compete. That's my biggest issue with him.

Does anyone really think that next season, after changing 5-6 players, that Mac is gonna lead this team onto making the playoffs ?

[chrisg19]

This team is disgraceful. They have packed it in at this point, and once they lose to the Islanders on Thursday they will take their rightful place as worst in the league. Losing is one thing, but quitting is something else all together. 5-1, 7-1, 3-1, 4-1, and an abberation of a 3-0 win over Phoenix over their last 5 games. EVERY team in this league has a better goals per game average than the Devils, with a roster that boasts Kovalchuk, Elias, Langenbrunner, Zajac, Arnott, and Rolston.

As for a coaching change, it is long past due. I like McLean, and I m sorry to see him flounder, but he is way over his head, and much of the blame falls on him. Obviously there is no cohesion, and no system to speak of, but beyond that there is no leadership. Others have pointed out he looks lost, and you can't deny that he is. This team needs a coach that holds them accountable, and that doesn't seem to be the case. This team is a rudderless ship right now, and a seasoned coach would help getting them going in the right direction. The way we are losing is disgraceful.

[sirjohn]

Bring back Tom McVie!

[Triumph]

the roster no longer 'boasts' rolston and langenbrunner. rolston has 6 non-EN goals in his last 44 games. langenbrunner has 2 non-EN goals in his last 37 games. these players are simply done as NHLers.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Triumph

[Section21]

Coaches don't matter that much in the NHL? Really?

Does anyone remember how bad the Flyers where in the beginning of last year? They changed the coach, went on a tear, snuck into the playoffs on a shootout goal, and darn near won the Stanley cup!

I certainly remember playing against them in the first round. (Wish I could forget...)

Edited December 22, 2010 by Section21

[Devils1985]

There’s never one reason.

There are obviously coaching issues.

There are guys that are old and can’t cut it anymore.

Too many of those guys were given too much money can’t be moved

With a few exceptions (Tedenby) the farm system is not ready to supply replacements or has no replacements to supply.

I don’t know how the finger can be pointed anywhere other than management as the root cause of all this. Arnott (just to throw an example) didn’t give himself a contract & he can’t stop time from advancing and doing its dirty work. Few players that want to play are going to admit to themselves that they’re over the hill, they find out when no one signs them or they are released. NJ has signed too many guys that are in that situation and WORSE they brought a couple of them back; and placed them in key roles.

Detroit kept old warhorses like Chelios and Draper around forever but didn’t give them roles they couldn’t succeed in.

At this point losing is clearly in their heads; they fold like a $2 suitcase not because they give up but because they get a deer in the headlights ‘here we go again’ look in their eyes, and other teams smell blood, and all of a sudden it’s 4-1 after two periods. I don’t know if there’s a way out of this death spiral now; Mac’s window of opportunity to fix this is closed; the time is passed to have a fit or show some emotion.

Coaches don't matter that much in the NHL? Really?

Does anyone remember how bad the Flyers where in the beginning of last year? They changed the coach, went on a tear, snuck into the playoffs on a shootout goal, and darn near won the Stanley cup!

I certainly remember playing against them in the first round. (Wish I could forget...)

IIRC they also had a ton of injuries early.

[Triumph]

Coaches don't matter that much in the NHL? Really?

Does anyone remember how bad the Flyers where in the beginning of last year? They changed the coach, went on a tear, snuck into the playoffs on a shootout goal, and darn near won the Stanley cup!

I certainly remember playing against them in the first round. (Wish I could forget...)

Points per game under Peter Laviolette last season: 1.07

Points per game under John Stevens last season: 1.08

Sick tear.

[BlueSkirt]

the roster no longer 'boasts' rolston and langenbrunner. rolston has 6 non-EN goals in his last 44 games. langenbrunner has 2 non-EN goals in his last 37 games. these players are simply done as NHLers.

insightful post !

Points per game under Peter Laviolette last season: 1.07

Points per game under John Stevens last season: 1.08

Sick tear.

please don't do this comparison for Lemaire/Maclean

[ice dog]

This team is disgraceful. They have packed it in at this point, and once they lose to the Islanders on Thursday they will take their rightful place as worst in the league. Losing is one thing, but quitting is something else all together. 5-1, 7-1, 3-1, 4-1, and an abberation of a 3-0 win over Phoenix over their last 5 games. EVERY team in this league has a better goals per game average than the Devils, with a roster that boasts Kovalchuk, Elias, Langenbrunner, Zajac, Arnott, and Rolston.

As for a coaching change, it is long past due. I like McLean, and I m sorry to see him flounder, but he is way over his head, and much of the blame falls on him. Obviously there is no cohesion, and no system to speak of, but beyond that there is no leadership. Others have pointed out he looks lost, and you can't deny that he is. This team needs a coach that holds them accountable, and that doesn't seem to be the case. This team is a rudderless ship right now, and a seasoned coach would help getting them going in the right direction. The way we are losing is disgraceful.

i agree with this assessment.

[MantaRay]

"Bad decisions today will stick with you through this new system for a long period of time."

-Lou Lamoriello

November 6, 2009

A few months later he made that "bad decision".

[ice dog]

"Bad decisions today will stick with you through this new system for a long period of time."

-Lou Lamoriello

November 6, 2009

A few months later he made that "bad decision".

Manta... Lou has been making a myriad, an array, a plethora of "bad decisions" since the lock out.

I know you have been hyper focusing on Kovy... but he really has nothing to do with this abysmal team.

It just so happens that the wheels finally feel off the rotten apple cart this season.

it will be interesting to see how long Lou stubbornly sticks with jmac

if he really does stick with MacLean for the duration... the team may not break the 50 pts.... you heard it here first.