Triumph Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 (edited) A lot's been made about the difficulty of the early schedule for the Devils, but I don't think enough has been said about it. It's one of the biggest reasons I think the Devils are going to play better in the coming half of the season - and that that, with a little shootout luck, is going to catapult NJ into the playoffs. Consider: Yesterday, there were 8 teams above NJ in shots % (number of shots on goal for Team X 5 on 5 / number of shots on goal against them). The Devils had played 11 of their 18 games against these teams, 7 of them on the road. The fearsome triumvirate of the Sharks, Ducks, and Kings - NJ has played them 5 times. The Capitals, for instance, a team ranked 28th in the league in even strength shot differential, riding shootout luck and a ridiculously hot Ovechkin, have played them 0 times. Of the 7 games the Devils have left against these excellent teams, 5 of them come at home. After Monday, they have one road game left against a top team (the Blues). Basically the West is way better than the East, so whatever teams haven't played much against the West are likely in for a rude awakening. Which gets me to the other thing - the home/road split. Right now NJ has played 21 away games and 16 home games - they only have 20 away games left. It's probably not worth a ton - maybe 1 point in the standings - but it's an edge most of NJ's rivals in the division don't have. Edited December 22, 2013 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucifer91 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 My gut feels they have played better against the top teams. .. any truth to that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 My gut feels they have played better against the top teams. .. any truth to that? your gut? it must have eyes then because if its been watching any of the games this season it would have seen that this has definently been true for the most part.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucifer91 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 your gut? it must have eyes then because if its been watching any of the games this season it would have seen that this has definently been true for the most part.. Oh for sure, lol, I just don't have the numbers to back it up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Oh for sure, lol, I just don't have the numbers to back it up... i dont either and i dont feel like wasting the time to go look it up.. and its kind of strange that its been like this isnt it?! i mean they have shown that they can show up 110% ready to rock against some of the best in the league and then i remember we got shutout by philly in the beginning of the year LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 (edited) Classic selection bias in play here, to a degree anyway. Against teams currently in the playoffs: 8-8-5 Against teams currently out of the playoffs: 8-8-2 One of the reasons why the record is like this - Schneider has started 11 of his 16 starts against teams currently in the playoffs. So the Devils are starting the better goalie, for the most part, against the better teams. Edited December 22, 2013 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ELIAS6 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Classic selection bias in play here, to a degree anyway. Against teams currently in the playoffs: 8-8-5 Against teams currently out of the playoffs: 8-8-2 One of the reasons why the record is like this - Schneider has started 11 of his 16 starts against teams currently in the playoffs. So the Devils are starting the better goalie, for the most part, against the better teams. i remember people talking about this also why he wasnt getting any wins because he was playing the majority of the tougher teams while marty was playing some of the easier opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Classic selection bias in play here, to a degree anyway. Against teams currently in the playoffs: 8-8-5 Against teams currently out of the playoffs: 8-8-2 One of the reasons why the record is like this - Schneider has started 11 of his 16 starts against teams currently in the playoffs. So the Devils are starting the better goalie, for the most part, against the better teams. Actually, we're 7-7-5 against teams in the playoffs and 8-8-2 against teams not in the playoffs. The 8-8-2 against the bad teams is what is hurting us more than the 7-7-5 against the good teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mouse Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 My gut feels they have played better against the top teams. .. any truth to that? My gut is telling me no, but my gut is also very hungry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 My gut feels they have played better against the top teams. .. any truth to that? 7-7-5 against the teams currently in the playoffs, and 8-8-2 against the teams not in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 (edited) Classic selection bias in play here, to a degree anyway. Against teams currently in the playoffs: 8-8-5 Against teams currently out of the playoffs: 8-8-2 One of the reasons why the record is like this - Schneider has started 11 of his 16 starts against teams currently in the playoffs. So the Devils are starting the better goalie, for the most part, against the better teams. Schneider's 4-12, and two of his wins were against Buffalo and the Rangers, who while the later is currently in the playoffs, I think, they blow. Edited December 23, 2013 by maxpower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newarkdev01 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think the important part for us is that we show we can compete and win against the top teams in the league, the question is if we can do it night in and night out over a compressed season and into the playoffs. The key issue is we rely on older players to carry the team and when there is less time for rest can we continue to play this well and improve. I hope the emergence of rookies and depth will enable us to get into playoffs and put up another run but anyone that claims to "know" they will or they won't is full of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 (edited) Schneider's 4-12, and two of his wins were against Buffalo and the Rangers, who while the later is currently in the playoffs, I think, they blow. Even with last year's format, we would still be in a playoff position. And Schneider is 4-7-5. Not 4-12. Edited December 23, 2013 by Mike Brown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 (edited) Even with last year's format, we would still be in a playoff position. And Schneider is 4-7-5. Not 4-12. Thought the Rangers jumped us last night, guess not. My point is that he has 1 win over a playoff team, the Kings game. His other wins are the early season Rangers game, the Buffalo OT game and a win over the Hurricanes. So, he draws the tough assignments, but he's not winning them, even if some of them are straight-up suicide jobs, like tonight. Basically it seems like they should reverse the roles at this point and play Schneider against poor teams and throw Marty to the wolves like they did against the Sharks Edited December 23, 2013 by maxpower Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sneax Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I forgot the part where goal tenders score goals. I'm not going to blame corey for losses where he held the other team to 2 goals and we didn't win. He's a good goal tender not a machine. There are only 2 games I really put on him this season, the rest of his losses were not his fault. The one thing hes terrible at is the shoot out, but we can't score on those anyway so it doesn't really matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Brown Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thought the Rangers jumped us last night, guess not. My point is that he has 1 win over a playoff team, the Kings game. His other wins are the early season Rangers game, the Buffalo OT game and a win over the Hurricanes. So, he draws the tough assignments, but he's not winning them, even if some of them are straight-up suicide jobs, like tonight. Basically it seems like they should reverse the roles at this point and play Schneider against poor teams and throw Marty to the wolves like they did against the Sharks Fair enough. I just never considered OTL's and shootout losses as real losses. And the Rangers do suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I forgot the part where goal tenders score goals. I'm not going to blame corey for losses where he held the other team to 2 goals and we didn't win. He's a good goal tender not a machine. There are only 2 games I really put on him this season, the rest of his losses were not his fault. The one thing hes terrible at is the shoot out, but we can't score on those anyway so it doesn't really matter. If he can't play the puck and is no threat to play the puck it gets them penned up. That's the one and only thing that Marty has over him and I'm starting to think there's something to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 If he can't play the puck and is no threat to play the puck it gets them penned up. That's the one and only thing that Marty has over him and I'm starting to think there's something to it. There is almost nothing to it. The Hawks gained the zone with impunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmann422 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Yeah last night really showcased how bad our defenseman can be in their own zone. When the fayne Greene pairing is struggling to clear the puck you just know guys like gelinas and zidlicky are in trouble. When we don't dominate in puck possession our defensemen get abused easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 (edited) When we don't dominate in puck possession our defensemen get abused easily. To be fair that can be said for just about every team in the league. People make a lot about the fact that an Eastern bubble team (the Devils) were dominated by a juggernaut of a team (the Blackhawks). It was to be expected, I'd say. Edited December 24, 2013 by Marshall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 To be fair that can be said for just about every team in the league. People make a lot about the fact that an Eastern bubble team (the Devils) were dominated by a juggernaut of a team (the Blackhawks). It was to be expected, I'd say. No way - not to that extent. Otherwise the Blackhawks would be a 70% fenwick tied team. They're not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 There is almost nothing to it. The Hawks gained the zone with impunity. Because the Devils can't counter. A goalie can't stop a team from skating in, but unless they were skating in every shift.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 (edited) Because the Devils can't counter. A goalie can't stop a team from skating in, but unless they were skating in every shift.... Which they were, basically. Go look at the shots on goal with the score tied with Schneider and Brodeur - there isn't a significant difference. EDIT: Not only is there not a significant difference, but Brodeur gives up more shots (as of Friday - could've changed by yesterday). The idea that Brodeur magically clears pucks out that wouldn't've gotten out anyway - well, I guess this is where I say, watch the games. He helps, but it isn't like Schneider is stapled in his own net, either. Edited December 24, 2013 by Triumph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxpower Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Which they were, basically. Go look at the shots on goal with the score tied with Schneider and Brodeur - there isn't a significant difference. EDIT: Not only is there not a significant difference, but Brodeur gives up more shots (as of Friday - could've changed by yesterday). The idea that Brodeur magically clears pucks out that wouldn't've gotten out anyway - well, I guess this is where I say, watch the games. He helps, but it isn't like Schneider is stapled in his own net, either. Go look at the shots on goal in any situation FOR. That's the major difference, they can't escape their own zone. If a team gains the zone, they're going to get shots. I think the worst game they've played with Marty in net was the Sharks game, and that was a 30-20 advantage for the Sharks. They have had some scary low shot totals some games where Schneider is playing. I know that sh% was brought up and yeah, that will tend to balance out, but I'd be interested in seeing how many more shots they per game in Marty's starts compared to Schneider's, I'm far too lazy to go through that many box scores, though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefiestygoat Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Go look at the shots on goal in any situation FOR. That's the major difference, they can't escape their own zone. If a team gains the zone, they're going to get shots. I think the worst game they've played with Marty in net was the Sharks game, and that was a 30-20 advantage for the Sharks. They have had some scary low shot totals some games where Schneider is playing. I know that sh% was brought up and yeah, that will tend to balance out, but I'd be interested in seeing how many more shots they per game in Marty's starts compared to Schneider's, I'm far too lazy to go through that many box scores, though Devils average 25.7 shots for in Brodeur's starts. For Schneider's starts they average 23.6 shots for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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