New York Mets Offseason Thread

[nmigliore]

Reyes, Castillo, Anderson all reported to camp today.. Both Anderson AND Castillo lost 17 pounds over the offseason... Good news to start.

[Devils731]

You can't give Beltran so many less ABs by betting him 6th. The guy is the second best hitter on the team. I think analysis will show the top 3 of the Mets lineup should be Reyes, Beltran, Wright so that the best hitters get the most ABs but baseball lore doesn't look at it that way.

[nmigliore]

You can't give Beltran so many less ABs by betting him 6th. The guy is the second best hitter on the team. I think analysis will show the top 3 of the Mets lineup should be Reyes, Beltran, Wright so that the best hitters get the most ABs but baseball lore doesn't look at it that way.

So if you do that its:

Reyes (s)

Beltran (s)

Wright

Edited February 18, 2009 by nmigliore

[Devils731]

It's better to stack lefties than to take at bats away from Beltran.

Edit: My lineup would pretty much look like the one you just did.

Edited February 18, 2009 by Devils731

[nmigliore]

It's better to stack lefties than to take at bats away from Beltran.

Edit: My lineup would pretty much look like the one you just did.

ehh.. but stacking up on the lefties just worries me.. And also batting Castillo so low bothers me (I view him as a #1 or #2 hitter).

edit: is there a stat that gives an average for at-bats per lineup position? just curious.. i think taking a few ABs away from Beltran is better for the lineup construction (which is the whole point of him batting 6th).. That also gives Wright and Delgado more pitches to hit with Beltran behind them.. It will also drive Beltran's OBP up, i think the opposing pitcher would rather face Church over Beltran.

Edited February 18, 2009 by nmigliore

[Devils731]

They do keep track of players averages by different spot in the lineup but I don't know off the top of my head where to find it online.

Well the question is does the stacking of the lefties hurt you more than getting your best hitters the most at bats helps? I tend to think you need to give your best hitters the most at bats because they're the most effective guys so that's most efficient. If teams try to do matchups on your lineup late in games you can go to the bench. Early in games having a bunch of lefties in a row won't matter.

[Devils731]

i think taking a few ABs away from Beltran is better for the lineup construction (which is the whole point of him batting 6th).. That also gives Wright and Delgado more pitches to hit with Beltran behind them.. It will also drive Beltran's OBP up, i think the opposing pitcher would rather face Church over Beltran.

It's not a few at bats, being a 2 versus a 6 hitter is a lot of at bats over a whole season. Research says that it's mostly a myth that having better batters behind you helps you hit better. Research actually says that "classic" lineup building isn't efficient. It's a way for baseball's old guard to continue to say the old ways are best despite probable evidence to the contrary.

Edited February 18, 2009 by Devils731

[nmigliore]

They do keep track of players averages by different spot in the lineup but I don't know off the top of my head where to find it online.

Well the question is does the stacking of the lefties hurt you more than getting your best hitters the most at bats helps? I tend to think you need to give your best hitters the most at bats because they're the most effective guys so that's most efficient. If teams try to do matchups on your lineup late in games you can go to the bench.

Our bench is going to be a question mark.. There is Tatis as a righty bat... and then theres everyone else below him.. Hopefully Pagan can be effective (switch hitter), and Anderson NEEDS to be effective as a lefty bat off the bench. At least Omar is trying to strengthen the bench by adding a bunch of players and letting them battle for bench spots in ST (ie: Bobby Kielty, Cory Sullivan, etc.)

[nmigliore]

It's not a few at bats, being a 2 versus a 6 hitter is a lot of at bats over a whole season. Research says that it's mostly a myth that having better batters behind you helps you hit better. Research actually says that "classic" lineup building isn't efficient. It's a way for baseball's old guard to continue to say the old ways are best despite probable evidence to the contrary.

I have a hard time believing this.. When a pitcher is in danger (RISP.. or even just on base) am I supposed to believe a starter is going to pitch regularly to Delgado with Beltran on deck opposed to Delgado up with Church on deck? Im sorry I just cant see how thats possible; I gotta believe he much rather face a 'lesser' hitter in Church or Schneider, therefore pitching around Delgado.. If Beltran is batting behind him it wouldn't make much sense to pitch around Delgado with another strong bat in Beltran right behind him

[Devils731]

I have a hard time believing this.. When a pitcher is in danger (RISP.. or even just on base) am I supposed to believe a starter is going to pitch regularly to Delgado with Beltran on deck opposed to Delgado up with Church on deck? Im sorry I just cant see how thats possible; I gotta believe he much rather face a 'lesser' hitter in Church or Schneider, therefore pitching around Delgado.. If Beltran is batting behind him it wouldn't make much sense to pitch around Delgado with another strong bat in Beltran right behind him

Numbers don't lie though. That's why it's good to look at numbers for baseball because some thing that make "sense" don't play out in the numbers. I believe the research tells us that pitchers try their best to get every batter out and hitters try their best to hit the ball regardless of situation and batting order. The only guy, in many years, who was getting enough attention to warrant a noticeable difference was Bonds in his big years, and that was more for the batter behind him than for the batter in front of him.

Everyone hits better with RISP so you would have to filter that out if you wanted to focus on that type of situation.

Edit: Also, you need to remember that if a pitcher did pitch around Delgado that's a positive outcome. It makes the weaker hitter behind him stronger since there is now a runner on base and if there was already a running on first then it advanced someone extra into scoring position. Basically the positives and negatives of the situations tend to cancel each other out.

Edited February 18, 2009 by Devils731

[nmigliore]

It's not a few at bats, being a 2 versus a 6 hitter is a lot of at bats over a whole season. Research says that it's mostly a myth that having better batters behind you helps you hit better. Research actually says that "classic" lineup building isn't efficient. It's a way for baseball's old guard to continue to say the old ways are best despite probable evidence to the contrary.

Also (compared to last year), Carlos batted mainly in the #4 hole .. a move from 4 to 6 would not be a significant dropoff in AB, and last year (again batting mainly in the #4 and occasionally the #5 hole), he still drove in 112 runs and hit 27 HRs

[Devils731]

Also (compared to last year), Carlos batted mainly in the #4 hole .. a move from 4 to 6 would not be a significant dropoff in AB, and last year (again batting mainly in the #4 and occasionally the #5 hole), he still drove in 112 runs and hit 27 HRs

That's all well and good, but I thought we were talking our ideal lineups? So in mine I'd bat him 2 so he could get even more ABs then he got batting 4th. Putting a mediocre hitter in the 2 hole just because he's a slap hitter and has ok speed at the cost of ABs for a good hitter hurts the team in the long run. Almost any time I'm taking ABs away from the 2nd best hitter on the team it's a bad thing.

[Triumph]

That's all well and good, but I thought we were talking our ideal lineups? So in mine I'd bat him 2 so he could get even more ABs then he got batting 4th. Putting a mediocre hitter in the 2 hole just because he's a slap hitter and has ok speed at the cost of ABs for a good hitter hurts the team in the long run. Almost any time I'm taking ABs away from the 2nd best hitter on the team it's a bad thing.

'The Book' does a very good analysis of this. Your 2nd hitter should be stronger than your 3rd hitter, according to 'The Book'.

if i were making out the mets lineup, reyes, wright, beltran would be the order, but any order of them would be fine. the other thing that's true about lineup construction is that it doesn't make a big difference how you order your lineup.

[Devils731]

if i were making out the mets lineup, reyes, wright, beltran would be the order, but any order of them would be fine. the other thing that's true about lineup construction is that it doesn't make a big difference how you order your lineup.

That's true, diamond mind ran I think 100 simulations of a whole season with a team once using every possible lineup combination and found that arranging your lineup purely by OBP yielded the best results but it was only a handful of percentage points better than the worst lineup did.

[nmigliore]

That's all well and good, but I thought we were talking our ideal lineups? So in mine I'd bat him 2 so he could get even more ABs then he got batting 4th. Putting a mediocre hitter in the 2 hole just because he's a slap hitter and has ok speed at the cost of ABs for a good hitter hurts the team in the long run. Almost any time I'm taking ABs away from the 2nd best hitter on the team it's a bad thing.

Castillo is gonna burn us more in the 7 or 8 hole more than he is in the 2 hole. My ideal situation is for Reyes to get on base, steal a bag, Castillo bunt him over. Murphy drives him in. Or, Castillo works a walk and you have 2 good base stealing threats at 1st/2nd. I basically want the fundamental/simpler things done by Castillo in the 2-hole (because thats what hes good at) rather than waste it on a talented hitter like Beltran.. if Reyes steals a bag, I rather the guy bunting him over be Castillo rather than Beltran, follow me? and Luis in the 7 or 8 hole is just strange; im telling you there will be times where the guy ahead of him gets a 2-out double or something and Castillo wont get him in. I just think its best for Castillo to bat in the 2-hole where I think it will be easier for him and he'll have more chances to do the little fundamentals (aka play 'small ball')

FWIW: Castillo batting 7th in 2008: .115 avg .. batting 8th in 2008: .200 avg .. batting 2nd in 2008: .268 avg, .366 obp.

Edited February 18, 2009 by nmigliore

[Devils731]

Castillo isn't a good base stealing threat.

I don't think 2008 holds enough data to make any decision on where Castillo bats best, I don't think there is any long term evidence that people bat better in certain spots in the lineup.

Playing a crappy hitter in the 2 hole just so he can sacrifice himself makes less sense than having a guy there who can actually hit the ball. In your scenario I'd rather have Reyes steal a base and then give Beltran, Wright, and Delgado a shot to hit him in rather than give up an out in Castillo so that 2 players can have a shot to hit him in and 1 can have a shot for a sac fly.

This is the problem with creating the "classic" lineup. You create all these situations that may or may not happen and how you want players to react and they just don't happen enough to justify not letting your best players bat as often as possible.

[nmigliore]

Castillo isn't a good base stealing threat.

If hes healthy he can steal bases.

I don't think 2008 holds enough data to make any decision on where Castillo bats best, I don't think there is any long term evidence that people bat better in certain spots in the lineup.

Castillo has been a #1 and #2 hitter for Florida/Minnesota, and a successful one, for his whole career.

Playing a crappy hitter in the 2 hole just so he can sacrifice himself makes less sense than having a guy there who can actually hit the ball. In your scenario I'd rather have Reyes steal a base and then give Beltran, Wright, and Delgado a shot to hit him in rather than give up an out in Castillo so that 2 players can have a shot to hit him in and 1 can have a shot for a sac fly.

I did say, in my original lineup post, this is assuming Castillo has a solid ST; meaning he finds his swing and such.. so its not a crappy hitter in the 2 hole if hes his old self, I think hes just best suited there, hes been there his whole career.. but if he does suck hes still better off there rather than burning RBI chances in the 6, 7, or 8 hole. (Im also basing the lineup off of what Jerry has said about playing fundamental baseball this year.) The thing that Im fine with it in my lineup is that it is deeper rather than stacking up your big hitters 1-2-3, so what if Beltran is batting 6th? Again he did bat 4th/5th last year and still had enough AB to drive in over 100 runs and bang out over 25 HRs. If you wanna talk about Beltran batting 2nd, then OK I wouldn't mind having him bat there if we didnt have Castillo.. but we do.. so if you flip Castillo and Beltran in my lineup (Castillo to 6th, Beltran to 2nd), you make the bottom part of the order much weaker (Castillo, Church, Schneider).

This is the problem with creating the "classic" lineup. You create all these situations that may or may not happen and how you want players to react and they just don't happen enough to justify not letting your best players bat as often as possible.

Well the only player you feel is not getting enough ABs is Beltran.. but Beltran has batted upper middle of the order (3-4-5) essentially his whole Met career and hes been quite fine. One or 2 spots down is not gonna kill the guy's production. And again if you flip Castillo and Beltran in my lineup you suddenly make the lower part very weak.

Edited February 19, 2009 by nmigliore

[Devils731]

It doesn't matter if the bottom of the lineup is weaker if the top is stronger and top comes up more often.

I'm only trying to explain what the mathematically stronger line up would look like. As Triumph said, and I've seen similar data, the way you arrange your lineup doesn't change how much you score by much. The Mets can bat Wright 9th and end up scoring almost as many runs as they will with him batting 3rd, and in some years they'd score more runs with Wright batting 9th just due to variance.

If the Mets wanted to give themselves the best chance to score the most runs, though, then a weak hitter like Castillo doesn't bat #2 because he isn't anywhere near as good as the hitters batting after him.

[nmigliore]

It doesn't matter if the bottom of the lineup is weaker if the top is stronger and top comes up more often.

I'm only trying to explain what the mathematically stronger line up would look like. As Triumph said, and I've seen similar data, the way you arrange your lineup doesn't change how much you score by much. The Mets can bat Wright 9th and end up scoring almost as many runs as they will with him batting 3rd, and in some years they'd score more runs with Wright batting 9th just due to variance.

If the Mets wanted to give themselves the best chance to score the most runs, though, then a weak hitter like Castillo doesn't bat #2 because he isn't anywhere near as good as the hitters batting after him.

Eh whatever I guess , i see what you mean though; if you think about it, it does make sense.. But Im just someone who rather have a more balanced lineup rather than having the big guns 1-2-3-4-5 (top heavy) because theres gonna be innings where you are caught with 6-7-8-9 up (might be the 9th inning, and if you dont have a solid bench you are probably screwed) and you dont get anything; and then it really gets bad if your 1-2-3, or 4-5, or 1-2-5 (any combo of the top 5) aren't hitting or getting on base

edit: oh and obviously i try to mix up the lefties and righties a bit, especially if the bench game isn't good (and last year it really wasn't good besides Easley, Murphy, Tatis who all became starters).

Edited February 19, 2009 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

Against lefties assuming he's still here, Castro should be in the lineup over Schnieder fwiw...and Tatis would probably play over Murphy so left-handedness might not be that much of an issue. The lineup's definitely chock-filled with lefties when a righty's pitching but that's not really an issue until the bullpens come into play late.

Edited February 19, 2009 by Hasan4978

[Triumph]

basically what 731 said. my ideal inning for the mets would go something like this:

reyes homers.

beltran homers.

wright homers.

delgado homers.

murphy hits a double.

castro homers.

what i mean is that basing a lineup on the concept of making a 'good' out - e.g. castillo's bunt - isn't a good idea. 'The Book' says - 'Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth and fifth best hitters should occupy #3 and #5 - #1 and #2 should have players with more walks than those in #4 and #5. From 6 through 9, put the players in descending order of wOBA.

[NJDevs4978]

Way to go Omar. Two solid players who were affordable, but by all means, Church in right and Tatis/Murphy are much better options. You keep basking in your perceived genius there Omar.

In that vein, Orlando Hudson just signed with the Dodgers for one year and $3.4 million (with another $4.6 million in possible incentives).

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

In that vein, Orlando Hudson just signed with the Dodgers for one year and $3.4 million (with another $4.6 million in possible incentives).

I would have loved to see Omar go in that direction...but it looks like it's Castillo's job to lose for now. At least the guy managed to show up in shape this time, although why he couldn't have shown up in shape after signing a four-year contract last season is a question I'd love an answer to. Who knows if it will even make a difference...I remember Carlos Baerga (remember that disaster?) showing up in terrific shape for his second full season as a Met...and putting up very similar numbers to his previous season.

[95Crash]

Did anyone see the end on Wednesday?

[NJDevs4978]

It will be bizarre the first time I go up there this year and see no Shea and the inside of Citi Field, I haven't been there since the diasterous final Friday night at Shea.

When is everyone's first trip there going to be? I'm looking at the first Friday game (I guess against the Brewers), those are always the best days for me to go up. Going on a weekend basically takes out a whole day with the travel from NJ via NJ Transit and Subway, and going during a weekday means I have to leave early if it's extra innings and won't get much sleep.